So many times in the past decade
when I was watching CNN or MSNBC or read any major newspaper online or in hard
copy, I heard the word 'unprecedented' in regard to Donald Trump. Perhaps most
often every time he ran for the Presidency that word was used into the way the
media couldn't comprehend how his morally repugnant actions as well as all of
the scandals that were in regard to him did nothing to shake how his voters
continued to support him. I kept hearing some version of how 'in old days
this-and-this would have doomed him with the electorate.'
I admit that was shocking to me at
the time. But the more I look at the history of Presidential elections both in
the long view and comparatively recently I increasingly wonder if that
particular part was ever true. And the more I look at it I think the idea that
scandals that were big deals in the media ending Presidential candidacies is,
well it has to be said, a creation of the media.
Part of me wonders if the
reporters were so shocked by what they were seeing that they stopped doing
their homework or if they decided to pick and choose the elements that they
reported to their viewers and readers. Because the hard truth of the matter is
that in the 200 years since the Presidency was chosen by popular vote there has
always been a disconnect between whether scandals – be they moral, financial or
even downright criminal – has altered the opinion of the electorate when it
comes to voting for President. It may be taken to its most extreme version in
the last decade but that doesn't mean its unprecedented.
To be clear I'm not denying that
scandals have done their part to end the political life of state and local
officials so many times over the history of the Republic. I am saying
that there has always been a disconnect between a candidate's behavior and
whether the voters are so devoted to what he represents (it is he in the case
of the Presidency) that they will still vote for him regardless of anything
he's done.
The most extreme example in the 20th
century was the case of the Socialist Candidate for President Eugene V.
Debs. Debs ran as a third party
candidate on the Socialist Party ticket five times between 1900 and 1920. It's
that last run I want to focus one for reasons that will become clear
immediately.
During World War I many socialist
leaders were arrested under the Sedition Act for being against fighting in the
war. He was tried and convicted and was sentenced to ten years in prison.
Despite that fact the Socialist Party nominated him for President at their
annual convention in May of 1920. Many believed that this was rally the cause
in America which was beginning to flag in the aftermath of the Soviet Union's
formation. In accepting the speech Debs went out of his way to say he was in
favor of the Russian Revolution. Debs and the party thought this would lead to
the incumbent Woodrow Wilson pardoning him. Wilson, who had always been a petty
man before the failure of Congress to accept the League of Nations, made it
clear he considered Debs a traitor and that he would never do so.
Despite this the Socialist Party
chose to keep Debs as their candidate anyway. Campaign literature proudly
referred to him as 'Prisoner No. 9653'. It's worth noting the Socialist Party,
which had elected multiple candidates across the country during the first two
decades of the century was wrenched by internal division. Debs received over
919,799 votes that November, which represented little more than 3 percent of
the total but still the highest number of votes Debs ever received when running
for President. It was a protest vote but the fact remained just under a million
voters were willing to vote for a man who couldn't serve in the White House
even had he been elected.
That faithfulness is at least part
of the reason I was always skeptical of the idea that even had Trump been
convicted it would diminish his following among his followers. Debs was always a fringe candidate and Trump,
despite everything the media wants to say, never was.
This case, however, is not one I
wish to highlight because it is a fringe movement. There were six other
Presidential candidates of the two major parties who in the 19th and
well into the end of the last century all dealt with the kinds of scandals that
were so controversial at the time in many cases they should have cost the
candidate the White House. Not only didn't they but in many cases the
electorate couldn't have made it clearer that they cared less about what the
media told them even when it was true.
1872: Grant runs for reelection
By 1871, a new term had entered
the political lexicon: ‘Grantism’. It was not a compliment. Grant’s
administration had the reputation of being notoriously corrupt, even though
Grant himself was honest. This was not necessarily on Grant: American politics
in the 1870s and 1880s was notoriously corrupt as the robber barons and big
business began to take a hold in every aspect of politics as every level. But
Grant seemed particularly incompetent when it came to choosing who advised him:
at the position of Attorney General alone, five men would hold the office due
to multiple resignation from scandals. Grant was also perceived as incompetent
as leader, and rumors about his drinking in the Oval Office were rampant even
by his allies.
Nevertheless the Republicans
nominated Grant for President in 1872 by acclimation. His Vice President
Schuyler Colfax had been forced to step down because of a corruption scandal
and they named Henry Wilson his Vice President this time.
Grant should have been easy
picking for a good candidate. Fortunately his opponent was Horace Greeley, the
nominee of the Liberal Republicans and the Democrats. The kindest thing one
could say about Greeley was that he was a national celebrity. As a publisher he
had the reputation of a busybody who had been a gadfly in politicians ears
(Lincoln had loathed him) He was personally unctuous, had been known to embrace
causes such as vegetarianism that were outside the societal norm and had
isolated many of his supporters when he had posted bail for Jefferson Davis
when the former President of the Confederacy was being tried for treason. Worst
of all, Greeley had spent almost his entire career in journalism attacking
everything the Democratic Party stood for, especially in the Northeast.
. Grant’s administration was
deeply flawed and easy to campaign against, but with Greeley as his opponent,
he was unbeatable. The result was a disaster both for the Liberal Republicans
and Greeley personally. Grant won in a landslide carrying 30 states and 286
electoral votes. Not long after the election Greeley’s wife died, he was
institutionalized and he died on November 29th 1872, less than a
month after election day.
If anything Grant’s second term
was worse than his first. A national depression hit the country in 1873 and a
veto of what was a version of a stimulus bill caused the Republicans to lose
the house in 1874, giving the Democrats control for the first time since the
before the War. The Whiskey Ring did much to hurt his cabinet and his Secretary
of Ware was discovered to be guilty of taking kickbacks and was impeached by
the Houses. Grants own brother was indicted in a corruption scandal. Despite
all of that, Grant considered running for an unprecedented third term, but the
scandals were so great he decided against running. That year. Four years
later he threw his hat back in the ring for a third term. It was a battle
between Grant and James G. Blaine (we'll get back to him later) and eventually
the Republican delegates turned to…
1880: James Garfield and Credit
Mobilier
James Garfield had been a dark
horse candidate (he'd actually declined the nomination the first time it was
offered) but many thought he was the hope of the party. He did, however, have
one big mark against him.
When the Transcontinental Railroad
was being built one of the companies involved was known as Credit Mobilier. Its
founders had created it to believe that is was responsible for constructing the
railroad, not operating it. It was a sham company to charge the government
extortionate fees and expenses during the construction. The scheme most
operated through fraudulent accounting practices. In order to gain influence
multiple Congressional members were bribed with cash and stock in exchange for
votes favorable to the company. (You have to love the Gilded Age. These days it
would just be campaign contributions to a PAC.)
The scandal broke just prior to
the 1872 election. Multiple Congressmen were named, including Colfax and
Wilson. Garfield had been among those allegedly offered stock or profits but he
testified that he had not been offered any. This didn't stop Democrats
attacking Garfield for being corrupt (there's evidence that his account of
dealings was less than honest) as opposed to Hancock who was a bastion of
integrity. Indeed the Republicans were reluctant to criticize the man
considered the hero of Gettysburg.
It turned out to be the closest
election in the popular vote in history: Garfield defeated Hancock by less then
2000 votes out of over nine million cast. Over 80 percent of eligible voters
participated the highest turnout in American history. The Electoral College
vote was more decisive. Each man carried 19 states but Garfield's triumphs in
the North gave him 214 electoral votes to Hancock's 155.
1884: Ma, Ma Where's My Pa?
In my opinion few things
demonstrate the more repressed nature of the American people then the 'Scandal'
that rocked Grover Cleveland's first run for the Presidency in 1884.
Cleveland was a bachelor when he
ran for office the first time. During the 1870s he'd had a relationship with a
widow named Maria Halpin. In July of 1884 a minister argued that Cleveland had
father an illegitimate child when he was an attorney in Buffalo.
Cleveland immediately told his
supporters: "Above all, tell the truth." He admitted he had paid some
child support to the woman who claimed to father the child but the paternity
was uncertain.
The Republicans showing the same
high standards they too often do today published an affidavit that she had been
practically a virgin; Cleveland was the father of her child and that she'd been
institutionalized. (Halpin was impossible to locate so the truth is still
uncertain.) The campaign again used perfect candor, saying that Cleveland had
had an 'illicit connection' with Halpin, there was a child but there was no
proof he was the father, and all he done was his moral duty.
Just to be clear Grover Cleveland,
a bachelor, had sex with a widow and might have fathered a child with her. If
you think that Republicans are always obsessed with what goes on our bedrooms,
this might be where it starts. Indeed Blaine's supporters would condemn
Cleveland's campaign with the chant: "Ma, Ma, Where's my Pa?"
The thing is the man run against
Cleveland James G. Blaine was far from morally spotless. (We'll deal with him
in the next article in the series.) And his moral corruption bother voters far
more than Cleveland private affairs.
It was nearly as close an election
as four years earlier, even in the electoral college. But Cleveland prevailed
with 219 electoral votes to Blaine's 182. And as a result after he won his
supporters now had an answer to the Republicans chant: "Gone to the White
House, Ha, Ha, Ha."
1920: The First of the
Second-Raters Wasn't Even That
As a historian I try to be
objective. But looking back on it the 1920 election is one of those where I
can't help look at the American electorate and say: "Guys, you really let
us down."
Warren Harding's own campaign
manager advocated for him by saying: "There are no first-raters this year
and Harding's the best of the second-raters." That's not a ringing endorsement from the man
who knew him best. Harding had multiple affairs, one of which was statutory
rape that he only got away with due to bribing a hotelier. He fathered a child
with her and by the time he had been nominated for President the RNC sent her
on a goodwill tour of China. That was just the most well-known of his affairs;
there were at last several others and quite a few pregnancies and
abortions. There was also the problem
that many suspected he had 'Negro blood' – in the era of the KKK that was
tantamount to a vote-killer. In addition to everything else he had a bad heart
and blood pressure even before he starting running in 1919. His own wife didn't
think he'd survive his term – an accurate prophecy.
And on the campaign trail he was
often boring and mangled words so badly that H.L. Mencken coined the term
'Gamilielese' to refer to it.
And the electorate responding by
giving Harding the biggest electoral landslide to that point in American
history. He was the first candidate to receive 60 percent of the popular vote
and he crushed his opponent James W. Cox by a margin of nearly 2-1. He won by 7
million votes the largest plurality to that point in history. Joe Tumulty the
head of the DNC said: "It wasn't a landslide; it was an earthquake.
Much of what Harding did, to be
fair, was unknown at the time and much of the worst parts could be found in the
future. Still its striking that the Presidential candidate who to that point in
history was the most unfaithful in private life (there were far more to be
found in the decades to come) was elected by the largest margin in American
history to that point.
It must be admitted much of it has
to due with the times: by 1919 America was so sick of all things Woodrow Wilson
any Republican would have probably swept the victory. But even by the terms of
the second raters that were eligible by any measure Harding was fourth-rate at
best even before he took office. Afterwards it got worse for him and the
country.
1972: They Knew About Watergate.
Nixon won anyway
This one is going to get the most
pushback considering that Watergate did bring down Richard Nixon. But the thing
is it only happened after two years of ruthless investigation. The thing is
Theodore White devotes an entire chapter to in his 1972 Making of the
President series. He reminds us the burglary did take place in July of that
year and that during the fall of that year both the press and the McGovern
campaign tried to make as much a deal of it is possible. However:
By early October, reported the
Gallup poll, 52 percent of the public had read or heard about the Watergate
affair but four out of five thought it was not a reason to vote for George
McGovern. On October 19th, the Harris Poll said that 76 percent of
those polled had heard something about it
- and 62 percent of all those polled dismissed the matter as 'just
politics'.
White makes an argument that hearing
about Watergate was a factor in many Americans not going to the polls go all
together. He also points out that of the 42 states that offered a vote for a
statewide race (Senator or Governor) in fully nineteen of them in those races
ran ahead of the candidates in both parties. In 23 of the states of the union despite
the passage of the 26TH Amendment enfranchises 18-21 year olds, the
total vote for President was less then it had been four years earlier.
But even allowing for that factor
White sees no scenario where McGovern -
or for that matter, any Democrat – could have beaten Richard Nixon that year.
That is the dual tragedy of the Watergate affair. It's not just that it was
unnecessary for the purposes of Nixon's victory; it's that there was clearly
awareness of it at the time – and rather then encourage the voters to go for
McGovern en mass they thought he was so incompetent that they decided not to
vote at all.
White acknowledges that point:
"The after-myth of a contrived or rigged election cannot change (the
facts). Americans were giving an open choice of ideas, a free choice of
direction and they chose Richard Nixon." Even Woodward and Bernstein knew
it was a fait accompli. In a section of the book that is forgotten both men are
present when a pool is going at the Washington Post as to who's going to win. Both
men are sure Nixon will win in a landslide Both men have a clear idea of what Watergate
means and neither believe it will change the electorate's difference one bit.
As indeed it didn't. Nixon won forty-nine of fifty states, 520 electoral votes
and 60.7 percent of the popular vote.
Millions of Americans had agreed that 'Nixon's
The One." Within a matter of months many regretted their decision
1992: The Comeback Kid
Bill Clinton is the only candidate
here that falls under a different standard, mainly because in the era of
post-Watergate the media had engaged in the kind of over-policing that had done
much to wreck the candidacies of so many men. (Even then there were limits to
it; they never got anywhere with Ronald Reagan.) Four years earlier Joe Biden
had decided to quit the race for the Democratic nomination because of a bizarre
plagiarism scandal that even the media admitted was the definition of trivial.
(Short term, it saved his life; long-term it did nothing to stop his
presidential prospects.)
Bill Clinton had been the kind of
candidate who had minor flaws, any one of which had brought other contenders to
ruin. He'd bobbled an issue of smoking pot or whether he'd dodged the draft.
But the biggest scandal which developed in the weeks prior to the New Hampshire
primary was his reported affair with Gennifer Flowers. Five years earlier a
reported infidelity had forced Gary Hart to end his candidacy and there was no
reason to expect that Clinton would face any more of a rejection.
And yet in the New Hampshire
primary he managed to finish in a respectable second place to Paul Tsongas. He
would face his share of challenges the rest of the way but eventually Clinton
would earn the Democratic nomination and win the White House, eventually becoming
the first Democrat to win reelection in his own right since FDR. He never truly
escaped the 'Slick Willy' moniker but when he left the White House he was still
incredibly popular with the electorate.
Now I need to be clear about what
I'm saying and what I'm not saying.
I'm not saying that the
voters made the right choice in each of these elections. Grant, Harding and
Nixon rank on any historians list of the five worst Presidents of all time. The
fact that all three men won elected office by (in successive order) the biggest
electoral margins of any Republican President to that time has to rank as some
of the poorest decisions the American voter ever made.
And it is not as though that these
scandals were the only factor causing people to vote for the winner. Horace Greeley and George McGovern ran two of
the most poorly run campaigns for the White House in the long history of the
electorate. And as I'll write about in the next series of articles James G.
Blaine, who ran against Cleveland, had far more serious scandals that were
public then Cleveland had and may have fallen victim to the first October surprise.
But the historical and electoral
record are very clear. All six candidates running for President had scandals
that involved the two biggest problems: corruption and sexual infidelity. The
public was very aware of them at the time they happened. And despite all the
media's efforts to make it clear how genuinely flawed these men were, the electorate
sent a very different message: its not enough to stop us from voting for them.
Now if you are the kind of person
who wrings their hands about the purported intelligence of the electorate every
time they choose a candidate for elected office that is at best intellectually
lacking and at worst morally corrupt this will no doubt confirm your worst
feeling about the voters. Or if you wanted to look at it a different way, you
could argue the electorate is far less susceptible to being brainwashed by any
media and will make up its own mind, regardless of what the bigger forces
think.
The reason I come away with the
latter feeling is because of one election that doesn't fall under the mantle of
what I said: FDR's first reelection in 1936. By that point it was the decision
of the very conservative media that Roosevelt was a dangerous man running
roughshod over the Constitution and 'a traitor to his class'. Most of the media
was under the control of men like William Randolph Hearst and Henry Luce as
well as other conglomerates. According to the historical records, fully two-thirds
of all publications endorsed the Republican candidate for President Alf Landon.
The night of FDR's historic
landslide, in which he broke all records by carrying more than 60 percent of
the vote and 46 of 48 states, two of Hearst's son came into a New York
nightclub hoping to drown their sorrows and not to be recognized. A twenty year
old master of ceremonies named Jackie Gleason recognized them instantly as they
came in.
Without missing a beat he said:
"Ah here come Maine and Vermont!"
Hearst was very much the Rupert
Murdoch of his day and had done everything in his power to put a Republican in
the White House.
He made his message clear. The
people, as is always the way, sent their own.