Ever
since 'The Squad' arrived in Congress in the blue wave of 2018 the Justice
Democrats have done much to argue that they are the future of the Democratic
Party, if not America itself. They have been helped by this because they are
all photogenic, mostly young people of color and because they have gotten a lot
of media attention. That much of this comes from far right news network and the
GOP, who have spend decades managing to win white working class voters, by
arguing the 'radical left' was going to take over America, was irrelevant to
both Justice Democrats and their millions of online followers. To them it was
all content whether it's bad or good.
For the
Democratic Party, particularly in the House it became clear very quickly that
the Justice Democrats were moving the party backward in one critical
way: the number of total Democrats in Congress. This was clear in three
consecutive elections, the last of which in 2024 gave Donald Trump his biggest
electoral win in three tries. The fact that the Justice Democrats still had
only increased their numbers from four to six during this period in terms of
elections won did nothing to change their certainty that the Democrats failures
were because they had been insufficient progressive.
By the
2022 midterms the Justice Democrats had modified their own mission statement:
they were only focused on increasing numbers in their own ranks, not the
Democratic majority. To that end when they began their biggest number of
Congressional candidates in 2026 they only planned to primary the bluest
districts in America from the far left. The media basically chose to ignore
this fact during the primaries as a whole, continuing the focus on their
victories as 'generational' and sweeping' even though they still only ran 14
newcomers and former member and only won ten of those races. Even then there
were still issues: two of them were running in Congressional races against
their primary challengers and in one case gerrymandering had change the
district from Democratic to Republican. Nevertheless the media gave them far
more coverage then their numbers deserved considering that at best they would
just be changed the names of members of the Democratic majority, not helping
increase it.
This led
to an opportunity for a group that had once had immense power in the House but
now was reduced to nearly the size of the Justice Democrats, the Blue Dog
Democrats. Once numbering one out of five Congressional Democrats, they had
dropped to ten members at the end of the 2024 midterms. And with Jared Golden
choosing not to seek reelection their numbers seemed certain to drop going
forward.
However
during the 2026 campaign they saw an opportunity endorsed 9 primary candidates
prior to August. They endorsed six more after August 11th and a
month before the election that had
endorsed a total of 26 non-incumbents. Three met defeat during the primary
season but they still endorsed 23 going
into election day, nearly two and a half times as many as the Justice Democrats
were during that same period.
None of
the races the Blue Dogs were running in were nearly as safe as those the
Justice Democrats were but Congressional Leadership and the Democratic Party
itself had far more at stake with the latter. The Justice Democrats were going
to have a good night regardless of the size of the blue wave. But if the blue
wave was good enough to lift up even half of those nominated by the Blue Dogs
then it meant good things for Hakeem Jeffries, the Congressional Democrats as
well as signs that the Democratic Party had a new direction to go in other then
left.
So with
that in mind let's see how things went for each group.
Justice
Democrats Results 2026
Mai Vang, California 7th
-LOST
Angela Gonzales-Torres, California 34th WON
Melat Kiros, Colorado 1st (WON)
Donavan McKinney, Michigan 13th (WON)
Adam Hamawy, New Jersey 12th (WON)
Claire Valdez, New York 7th (WON)
Darializa Avila Chevalier, New York 13th (WON)
Chris Rabb, Pennsylvania 3rd (UNOPPOSED)
Justin Pearson, Tennessee 9th (LOST)
Frederick Haynes III, Texas 30 (WON)
In a
later article I'm going to be looking at the margins of victory for each
candidate compared to those who held those seats in the last election. To be
clear given the immense turnout across the nation for Democratic candidates we
may very well see them overperforming in quite a few cases. Justin Pearson
already did and he was the only one in a district that should have by all
rights gone Republican.
Only Mai
Vang, Angela Gonzalez-Torres and Justin Pearsons were in districts that were
competitive and the first two as I stated were competing against other
Democrats. Vang lost handily to Dolores Matsui while Gonzalez-Torres won
handily. While eight winners is by far the best turnout the Justice Democrats
have had in any election cycle since their inception in 2018 with the exception
of Justin Pearson, all of these districts were overwhelmingly favored to go
Democrat anyway.
Blue Dog
Democrats Results 2026
JoAnna Mendoza, Arizona 6th (WON)
Dwayne Romero, Colorado 3rd (LOST)
Eileen Laubacher, Colorado 4th (WON)
Amanda Green, Florida 2nd (LOST)
Bale Dalton, Florida 7th (LOST)
Leela Gray, Florida 13th (LOST)
Don Coover, Kansas 2nd (LOST)
Zack Dembo, Kentucky 6th (WON)
Jake Johnson, Minnesota 1st (WON)
Sam Forstag, Montana 1st (WON)
Blake Gendebien, New York 21st (LOST)
Zack Mullock, New Jersey 2nd
(WON)
Jamie Ager, North Carolina 11th (WON)
Paul Barringer, North Carolina 13th (WON)
Brian Poindexter, Ohio 7th (WON)
Bob Brooks, Pennsylvania 7th (WON)
Nancy LaCore, South Carolina 1st (WON)
Chaz Molder, Tennessee 5TH
(LOST)
Bobby Pulido, Texas 15th (WON)
Johnny Garcia, Texas 35 (WON)
Mitchell Berman, Wisconsin 1st (WON)
Rebecca Cooke, Wisconsin 3rd (WON)
I should
be clear that looking at the massive landslide the Democrats accomplishment at
every single level of government I have no illusions that the battle between
the left and moderate wings is settled for two reasons.
The
first is having spent so much time dealing with the far left I know that they
never see the elections they lose but only the elections they win. Given that
they consider winning the primary the equivalent of winning the general that
mindset will likely never change.
The
second is, I have to admit, I can no longer say with total confidence they're
entirely wrong. I'm not just talking about Abdul El-Sayed's very sizable
victory in the Michigan Senate race which will definitely give weight to the
progressive argument. It's also that despite everything lined up against him
Justin Pearson came very close to achieving something impossible. That this may
have been in large part due to backlash against redistricting that we saw
nationwide – something that no doubt played a role in so many of the Blue Dogs
winning in many of their races – doesn't change the fact it might have helped
some of the Justice Democrats.
And
given just how close Angie Nixon, who if anything is more to the left of
El-Sayid, had a bigger upset in the Florida Senate race and no money to speak
of, came this close to defeating Ashley Moody shows at some level there
is considerable appeal to what a very progressive candidate can do in a state
that has basically become ruby red during the last decade. In a way her near miss in that deep red state
is more impressive than El-Sayid's near landslide victory in Michigan which has
been electing Democrats at a state level for decades. Any pundit who ignores
that would be a fool and I'm far from one.
That
being said it's hard to argue just how well the Blue Dogs did by comparison.
It's not just that they won far more seats then the Justice Democrats it's that
the Blue Dogs alone increased the House Majority by 15 seats, far more
then even they dared hope. Part of this, as I mentioned before, may have been
due to an alliance with the Progressive Democrats PAC led by Bernie Sanders but
that only gets you so far in the overwhelming majority of these districts. It
might have helped in some of the swing districts such as the ones Cooke and
Brooks occupied but in the case of such new members as Zack Dembo and Sam
Forstag, it was going to be all but useless.
And when
it comes to those who did more to get rid of those who have been the left's
biggest Congressional boogeymen – or perhaps, boogey women is the better term,
the Blue Dog Democrats are owed a far bigger debt. After multiple close calls
it was Eileen Laubacher who finally succeeded in removing Lauren Boebert from
the house. Furthermore Nancy Mace's district, the South Carolina 1st,
is now in the hands of a Democrat thanks to Nancy LaCore.
There's
also the side note that in almost every
state where the Justice Democrats notched a win the Blue Dogs managed to flip a
seat. We saw them do so for two seats in Texas, one in Pennsylvania, one in
Colorado and one in New Jersey. And if there's a question as to whether Bob
Brooks' win meant more to the DCCC then that of Chris Rabb in Pennsylvania, it
doesn't come close. What's more two new members of the Blue Dogs are in North
Carolina where Nida Allam failed at her attempt to primary Valerie Foushee in
that state's fourth district.
There's
also an excellent chance that the Blue Dogs may not be done gaining members for
the new Congress. Ben McAdams, who just won in the Utah 1st and Melissa Bean who won in the Illinois 8th
were former members and while neither accepted their endorsement I suspect
they'd be welcomed with open arms. And considering just how many Congressional
Democrats flipped seats that were overwhelmingly Republican – including some
races in North Carolina and Tennessee that have yet to be called – they're
going to need the advice their colleagues give them to make sure they hold
their seats.
It's
worth noting that one of the very few seats Republicans managed to flip this
cycle was one that had been held by a Blue Dog. Jared Golden's retirement
earlier this cycle led to an opening in the Maine 2nd which was largely
expected to be a Republican gain.
Earlier this week it was officially flipped by Paul LePage, the former two term
Republican governor of Maine. While the Democratic Party is justifiably happy
to have finally defeated their long time bete noire Susan Collins in the Senate,
it is interesting that there is still a Republican as part of Maine's
congressional delegation – one that almost certainly wouldn't still be there
had Golden not chosen to retire earlier this year.
As of
this writing the Blue Dog Democrats now have a total of 25 members going into
the next session, the most they've had since the 2010 midterms did nearly as
much damage to their membership as this one did to the Republicans. There's
already been a fair amount of talk between their caucus and House leadership
about what to do in the next session. This is logical because when Democrats
last had the power to make this kind of agenda between 2006-2010 it was with
the help of the Blue Dogs.
The
Justice Democrats, by any measure, had their best cycle since they were founded,
However the Blue Dogs not only had a better one but have illustrated a path
that, if followed, might allow for the Democratic Party to build a house
majority that could be held for decades. That in turn might lead to the passage
of some (albeit watered down) version of the legislation the Justice Democrats was
founded on but that they've never been able to get enough of a caucus together
to get any part of it passed. And if they, as has been their want, refuse to
compromise there will be enough Blue Dogs to make sure that they get some
version of it through the House. The Democrats have always been a center-left
party but this election was more of a triumph for the center then the
left and it's important that Congressional leaders remember who played the
bigger part in the blue wave. It's looking like they have and I hope that in
the next Congress they remember that.