A month ago after Ada Mills dropped
out of the Democratic primary in Maine I made it crystal clear that Platner was
absolutely the best thing to happen for Susan Collins chances for reelection. I
knew that his social media history as well as his own record with his campaign
staff had basically written the opposition research for the Republicans before
he'd officially become the Democratic nominee.
I didn't need to know any more about
Platner to know how toxic he was going to be and the last two weeks have, if
anything, made it clearer just how many self-inflicting wounds he's giving
himself and the Democrats.
Time Magazine in a front page article
on him published a story that while it sung his praises acknowledged a sexting
scandal that had already come to light. By the time that issue had hit the
newsstands The New York Times – which had written many favorable articles about
him in the months prior to the primary – published an in-depth story of no less
then three former girlfriends who have claimed that they were abused by
him. The Atlantic has published
multiple articles over the last week including one titled 'Maine Has A Graham
Platner Problem'. And the day before the primary The Washington Post ran
an op-ed by Platner's former campaign manager making it clear just how bad a
choice he was for the Senate.
I need to emphasize that none of these
publications could remotely be described as part of the conservative media. The
New York Post and The Wall Street Journal have published similar
articles pointing out Platner's flaws but they all basically came within days
of the earlier publications, none of which could be mistaken as close to
pro-Trump. These are all the bastions of
the so-called liberal media and they couldn't make it clearer that Platner is
not the kind of candidate the Democrats should endorse.
And as I've mentioned the party is
increasingly becoming split on what to do about him. The progressive wing –
Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders the most prominent members – have stood by
him and have continued to stand by their endorsements. They have no choice
because they're the ones who have done everything to back him in the first
place and the progressives have long made it clear they'd rather lose elections
with one of their own then win with a moderate. This is not the case for many
other members of the coalition, including critically women's groups who
rescinded their endorsement on Thursday.
And the thing this is all before
Platner became the nominee. It is one thing to win the Democratic primary in
Maine. But now Platner has go into the general election and try to defeat Susan
Collins who has won reelection four times and ran ahead of Trump in Maine in the
2020 election. Collins managed to get over 417,000 votes in 2020. Platner is
going to need more than that to beat her in the general. This was going to be a tough fight with a
moderate candidate: for a man who already has the kind of baggage going into it
then compares to Ken Paxton, its as if he's purposely putting sandbags on
before an uphill run.
Right now the Democrats biggest
argument is that it is more important to get Susan Collins out of the Senate,
even with a horribly flawed Democrat candidate like Platner. This is
essentially the same argument that so many Republicans who were frustrated with
Trump during his first term were: the other side is much worse. That never
struck me as a powerful argument for Republican voters; to use it in terms of a
moderate Republican in Maine – who Trump has not officially even endorsed
during this cycle - strikes me by far as
the worst kind of hyperbole.
It doesn't help matters that so much
of the chatter trying to defend Platner seems to be based on the idea that he's
trying to do better and that his major defense has been that he has suffered
from PTSD when he made the majority of his 'mistakes'. Basically the defense seems to be he's not
guilty by reason of mental defect. That barely flies in defending serial
killers; it's not a plus for someone you want to be in the U.S. Senate.
And to be clear this election was a
mandate on whether Susan Collins deserved to win reelection. Now it's a mandate
on whether Platner is fit to serve in the Senate at all. If you think the
establishment is trying to undermine Platner because 'they're scared of him' (a
common online defense of any progressive) then wait until the Republicans start
in on him. As I've said multiple times and will keep emphasize, the last thing
you want to hand the GOP in any battle is the moral high ground.
Collins, on her worst day, was never a MAGA
extremist; the most damning indictment the left has been able to throw against
her is that she has endorsed Trump's agenda without blinking. To be very clear
so has every Republican in Congress at this point, something that the Democrats
have made very clear in every election for the past decade. The problem is,
particularly in the Senate, it has rarely been the kind of dealbreaker for most
voters that the left believes it should be. If anything, it keeps helping
Lindsay Graham and Ted Cruz and Rick Scott winning elections. Collins is not
unique in that regard and honestly she's much milder then all of the Senators
when it comes to their voting record and overall demeanor. Lauren Boebert and
Nancy Mace she is not.
It was never going to be enough to
just say Collins was in favor of Trump to beat her in Maine. It wasn't in 2020
and there was no real reason to assume it would be that simple this time
around. But the left did what it does so
many times before; it made the assumption that a loud, left-wing candidate
would be able to win over the masses in a general election. As always they
mistook popularity in the Democratic primary for how it would play in the
general election. That has never worked for the Democrats before in the last
decade: we saw how badly it failed Jaime Harrison against Lindsey Graham in
2020 and Sara Gideon who ran against Collins that year was far milder. Both
lost in what amounted to landslides in two of the most expensive Senate races
in the cycle that year.
The other major argument in favor of
Platner is that he represents a new vision for Democrats. It's not a new
vision: it is almost exactly the same kind of argument that Bernie Sanders
failed twice to win with in his Presidential runs and that Elizabeth Warren
failed at in hers; it's the vision that Harrison and Gideon ran on and lost
with; it’s the vision Paula Jean Swearngin lost with twice when she trying to
run for the Senate in West Virginia; it’s the same vision that Annie Andrews is
trying to defeat Lindsey Graham with this cycle and that Jamie Davis is trying
to run on in Louisiana. The pattern never changes; its works with Democratic
primary voters, and in the general election the candidate get trashed because Republicans
and independents don't buy it. The only reason it had a chance with Platner in
the first place was because Maine isn't South Carolina or Louisiana or West
Virginia.
And in all the examples that I've
given involved infinitely less flawed candidates then Graham Platner is.
In a primary you can run as far as you want to the left but in the general you
have to move to the center. This is
counterintuitive to how the left believes anything should be done, and it's
never paid off in any Senate race in the last decade or even further back. Platner
is now going to have to win over independents and moderates who might have had
doubts about Collins. That was going to be a tough fight just on his platform
alone; with all of the scandals already following him it may be impossible.
To be clear if you don't think the
RNC, the GOP and every dark money organization connected with the Republican
party hasn't been created anti-Platner ads since November, you clearly have
forgotten who your opponents are. The big difference is, up until now, they
haven't had to start digging up false scandals to plague their opponent; he's
basically acknowledging many of them and the 'liberal media' has been
pointing them out for the last several weeks. Platner is going to be on the
defensive from day one of the general
campaign. He had to acknowledge as much in his 'victory speech' last night. And all of this is before the
Republicans start digging for more skeletons in his closet. I don't exactly think
they'll need a steam shovel to unearth them.
This all comes before what is now the
biggest difference between now and when Platner announced his run for the
Senate last November. The map has shifted dramatically in favor of the
Democrats. It was going to be an uphill battle at the end of 2025 but now in
large part because of Trump's presidency as well as his spending much of the
primary campaign taking revenge on many of his opponents within the GOP, the
odds have begun to shift in favor of the Democrats taking the Senate back. As I
mentioned Race to the White House has shifted the odds in favor of the
Democrats doing so for the first time last week. Roy Cooper looks certain to
win in North Carolina, Sherrod Brown and Mary Peltola look like they will gain
seats in Ohio and Alaska, and for the first time in decades James Talarico has
an excellent chance to win a seat in Texas. In addition Iowa is increasingly
beginning to look like it may be in play after Joni Ernst's retirement. Winning Maine was critical to the Democrats
taking back the Senate as recently as May. Right now, it might just be icing on
the cake.
And while Democrats have gaining a
better chance of winning the Senate everywhere else Graham Platner's chances of
winning in Maine have been dropping. Race to the White House had his chances as
high as 70 percent and had moved the state into Lean Democrat back in March.
Now they have it ranked as toss up and his odds have dropped to 63 percent.
Kalshi, the major prediction market, once had Platner's odds as high as 72
percent. They currently have it at 57 percent in his favor.
The polls reflect a similar downward
trajectory. As late as May 27th Platner had a nine point led in the
general: 51 percent to 42 percent. A poll released Monday showed his lead had
shrunk to 51%/49% with some polls showing the two tied or Collins with a slight
lead. Other Democrats, such as Talarico and Brown, have been gaining ground and
moving ahead in their races. Platner is the only one going backwards.
And keeping this all within the state
of Maine, where it’s the only place that matters, all of the controversy around
Platner will know doubt solidify Republican support around Collins in a way a
more moderate candidate wouldn't have the same issues. This has been true as a
general rule for Republicans across the board; when the Democrat has such
obvious flaws it can only help. Its worth remembering Maine has ranked choice
voting and I find it difficult to believe that a state with such an independent
streak, as well as a district that has voted for Trump in multiple elections, is
going to find Platner as convincing a sell as so many progressives believe he
will be. And I find it infinitely
plausible that many voters might be so frustrated with either choice that they
might choose not to vote at all and low turnout generally favors Republicans. I
believe progressives have reminded us of that fact more then once.
For all of this pessimism, its worth
noting that in Maine the Democrats do have an off-ramp. According to the
election laws the nominated candidate can still choose to withdraw by a
deadline. This year it's July 13th. So if Platner can be convinced for the good of
the party to withdraw his name from consideration another candidate, whether it
is Janet Mills or someone else from the Maine Party, could run in his stead.
We'd look incompetent for doing so, of course, and there's no guarantee it
would end up leading to a victory in Maine but as anyone who's been a Democrat
as long as I have, incompetent is basically our go-to look. And in this case I
think the Party would prefer looking
incompetent and having a chance of victory then embracing a candidate this
toxic and almost certainly losing and whatever collateral damage is does to our
already tattered brand.
To be clear it is in the best interest
of the Democratic Party and any chance they have in Maine to convince Platner
to step down. If he doesn't then I need to be blunt. I will be endorsing Susan
Collins for reelection. This wouldn't be a hard choice most times: Collins is
as much a centrist as many of the Democrats I've endorsed in my column before
and we very clearly need more of them in the Senate, not less. And considering
Platner has no business being anywhere near the halls of Congress, no matter
which party he chose to be a party of, it's an even easier choice for me. I
suspect it will be far easier for the good people of Maine who are the only
ones whose opinion matters in this discussion.