Living in New York City I have a more
upfront view of Zohran Mamdani who in a very short time has becoming one of the
most galvanizing and polarizing figures in American politics. I argued strongly
his nomination and victory in the race for Mayor last year had far more to do
with the weaknesses in the New York Democratic Party then any real desire for
his politics. And I knew that his agenda was going to run into the brick wall
that is the reality of governing the moment he took office.
It didn't take a genius to know that a
33 year old man who had managed a staff of five in his biggest job on the City
Council was biting off far more than he could chew in a city where so many
equally qualified men of both parties have tried and usually failed to be
effective leaders. And like so many of the Justice Democrats of which he
associated and the DSA of which he is a proud member his appeal was more due to
his charisma and the idea that youth can succeed where age has failed. That
this has nothing to do with being a good, elected official, much less mayor of
one of the biggest and most complicated cities in America, did nothing to blunt
his appeal to the young college educated (and overwhelmingly white) voters and
there was enough resistance to putting Andrew Cuomo in to give him a victory
and some grace.
The problem came as to how he chose to
spend his political capital. When you're elected mayor you have a certain grace
window to get your agenda through office. While the City Council and state
officials like Governor Hochul might have conflicted opinions about their new
mayor they were on the same team, as either fellow Democrats or fellow New
Yorkers. Many of Mamdani's campaign promises might not have been able to get
passed in their purist form but he could have used his political capital and
the media to help get them done.
Instead he chose to spend most of his
first six months in his office burning bridges with so many of the people who
thought they were allies with him. This was by far the most clear when it came
to the Congressional primaries this summer as I wrote last June:
Claire
Valdez, another Democratic Socialist who was elected to the 37th
district in 2025 would attempt to run for New York 7th to succeed
Nydia Velasquez. She would be challenging Brooklyn Borough President Antonio
Reynoso and Queens Councilwoman Julie Won. In the 13th Darializa
Avila Chevalier would be running to challenge Adriano Espaillat, who has
represented the district since 2017 and is the chair of the Congressional
Hispanic Caucus.
Valdez
and her chief competitor Antonio Reynoso agreed on everything: abolishing ICE,
taxing the rich, Medicare for All and the War in Gaza. And considering Reynoso
had early on endorsed Mamdani for Mayone one would have thought he would pick
his colleague. Instead he chose Valdez who was, like him a fellow Democratic
socialist.
Chevalier
came under fire for deleted social media posts in which she bashed mainstream
Democrats, questioned the view Israel had the right to exist and criticized Joe
Biden leading up to the 2020 election.
Espaillat
it's worth noting is one of the most progressive members of Congress, who has
introduced bills to abolish the Death Penalty. He is a strong advocated for
affordable housing and economic development, immigrant rights and the dream
act, voted against passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act
Chevalier
is one of the most prominent anti-Gaza protestors who has been one of Mamdani's
lead organizers so it was clear that this race would be a test of his
endorsement powers as well as the Justice Democrats reach. Espaillat thought
that Mamdani had his word to back him. Instead Mamdani chose to elevate
Chevalier who like him was as vehement a critic on Israel as him.
This
infuriated Hakeem Jeffries and Latino leaders. Considering that Chevalier and
Valdez refused to commit to back him for House leader he is justifiably afraid
that their victories could be turned into cudgels by Republicans in swing
districts.
"Every
Democrat in a competitive race will have to answer for our most extreme
voices," said Howard Wolfson. "And it will make the party as a whole
seem extreme and out of touch.
The
results do seem to have worked in the short term: Valdez won her primary
overwhelmingly and Chevalier narrowly defeated Espaillat. But yet again it
demonstrates the inability of far left candidates like Mamdani to take anything
but the immediate view. Already there are signs this has done much to hurt
Mamdani's reputation at a state level. Many of the people who supported him
early such as Velasquez are infuriated by how Mamdani seems more interested in
putting it early supporters who are unknown in politics that may hurt the
party. One can't escape the fact that Mamdani seems determined to remake the
Democratic Party in New York in his image… (and) in Mamdani's case it seems the
definition of pennywise gains in favor of pound foolish decisions state wide.
At
this point it seems the national party's as well as those for New York
Democrats were ill-founded: the party seems on the verge of taking both houses
of Congress back and many of the swing district candidates such as Tom Suozzi,
Laura Gillen and Cait Conley seem certain to win their races. And despite the
increasingly frantic efforts of Republicans to use the brand of socialist on
every Democrat running it is clear that its not playing the way it used.
Furthermore after the narrow victory of Abdul
El-Sayid in the Senate primary in Michigan and Francesca Hong's shocking defeat
for Wisconsin governor to David Crowley – where polling in both states showed
the left wing candidate with a huge lead
going into election day, many in the media are finally questioning where the
left-wing agenda that Mamdani and the Justice Democrats have been trumpeting
are as popular as with the electorate as has been believed. And when you
combine in with the spectacular disaster that was Graham Platner senate
campaign in Maine – who was looked for very much in the metric of a Mamdani type
candidate – the Democratic leadership now has more than enough ammunition to
argue that labeling candidates as 'the next Mamdani' is a loser.
So
even before November the idea of Mamdani as a national figure had taken more
than a few hits. And it didn't help that October has been a very bad month for
Mamdani as; to use a very appropriate phrase, the left-wing chickens are coming
home to roost.
The
first real blow came, as you might have expected, last Wednesday, when after
posting even a half-hearted statement against antisemitism Mamdani online
Mamdani was torched by many of his strongest left-wing supporters for making a
gesture that was at best symbolic, given his known position on Gaza. Then later
that day when he attending a memorial held my many New York Jews the inevitable
pro-Palestinian protest showed up and directed some of their harshest comments
on him, calling him a traitor. The normally smiling Mayor is seen on footage
all over the internet looking stone-faced if not ashen as he leaves the
meeting.
Considering
just how adamant Mamdani has been on his positions both on Palestine and Gaza
that none of the protestors gave a second thought at cheering one of their
biggest allies on the national stage should have been the clearest lesson of
the transactional nature of the left in general. Many of them said they did it
"to keep him honest." Translation: "What have you done for us
lately?"
Furthermore
in recent weeks Mamdani has been under pressure from his supporters and base,
including the New York City chapter of the DSA to remove Police Commissioner
Jessica Tisch. Last week federal
immigration officers shot and injured a man in the Bronx. This operation didn't
involve the NYPD but nevertheless Chevalier appeared at a protest movement,
getting into a violent confrontation aggressively pushing Chevalier to the
ground.
To
be clear Chevalier owes Mamdani for the fact she's likely going to be going to
Congress this November. But she's made it clear she's more devote to the cause
– or to be more accurate, gathering content for the cause – then any loyalty to
her patron. She has demanded Tisch be removed because in her eyes Tisch is the
enemy.
Earlier
this week Mamdani also said he was committed to disband the NYPD's Strategic Response group, which is
established to handle counter-terrorism operations, active shooters and city
wide mobilizations for major public disorder. As you suspect the left is more
upset about that last part, as major public disorder is the left's stock and
trade. And considering how many members of the DSA consider any action against
a protest as a deliberate suppression of free speech and since you can never
push back against the left in an argument, much less when they are causing
disorder it was inevitable that they would demand that this unit be dissolved.
Mamdani
and Tisch are ideologically opposed but so far during the first ten months of
his administration they have managed to keep a working relationship that has
helped delivered some of the lowest crime rates in the city's history. Crime is
a major issue to most people in New York. To people like Chevalier, who think
that some crimes are justifiable because of white supremacy, Mamdani no doubt
was supposed to have his first budget defund it.
One
of Mamdani's promises was that he was going to reshape the police department by
shifting some responsibilities from officers to teams of social workers. Indeed
he initially envisioned a $1 billion per year agency to dispatch civilian
workers. Instead he launched a new office which had just two staff members and
few immediate plans to shift the city's approach to 911 calls. There was
neither enough funding nor support for the policy in the city's budget.
As
you'd expect Mamdani was immediately attacked by the president of the Police
Union who argued that "the mayor's radical base wants a wholesale
dismantling of the NYPD and its clear this announcement is an attempt to
appease them." There's a certain truth to that, as well as the statement:
"It won't work." Mamdani learned this last week but he's still
trying. It's a waste of time.
What
Mamdani is learning is the exact lesson multiple Republican house leaders have
had to learn over and over (and over) and that Pelosi and Jeffries learned
during Biden's administration: the most extreme members of your own party don't
feel they owe loyalty to anyone in the leadership. In Mamdani's case it has to
cut even deeper: he used his own political capital to lift Chevalier into
Congress and she didn't even have the courtesy to wait until she was elected
to turn on him.
It's
not like Chevalier has any real interest of being a good representative either:
it's clear she's auditioning to be the kind of scary left wing socialist Fox
News says all Democrats are. (Now that Jasmine Crockett is a lame duck and AOC
is getting a bit older I'll admit theirs an opening for that position.) One
hopes that if the majority is sizable enough that the influence of members like
Chevalier and Valdez will be limited at best.
The
more practical lesson is that Mamdani's power as a kingmaker in New York
politics may been tarnished. Being able to make political careers only works if
those you mint answer to you when you call on them. Say what you will about Trump (and many have)
at the height of his political power he had a lock on the loyalty of those
Congressman and senators he gave rise too. They did what he said when he said
it and when they were no longer useful to him he had them disposed of.
Mamdani
either doesn't have or is unwilling to use that same power to control those
such as Chevalier. And since he is no better at controlling them its unlikely
he'll able to use it to flex against other candidates in 2028. If he had wants to primary Jeffries (as in
fact he was considering earlier this cycle before dropping it) he will have to
deal with the reality then those he choose to knight owe him know loyalty as
well as the fact that both New York and national Democrats now see him as part
of the problem and will be prepared to take action should he try this play
again.
The
gospel according to organization like the DSA has always been that if a
candidate goes to the center, either when running in a general election or
after winning office while governing, they are in fact going to the right. That
is the justification that for decades they have chosen to label successful
Democrats such as Clinton or Obama "neoliberals" and labeled moderate
Democrats such as Joe Manchin or Krysten Sinema, DINOS. This has played out
most recently in John Fetterman's tenure as Senator and there are signs the
left has begun to turn on the more recently elected Ruben Gallego for working
with Republicans as well.
The
implication, never stated directly, is that a genuine left-wing candidate could
not only run as a leftist but govern as one. And since left-wing
candidates almost always lose in statewide elections as well most Congressional
primaries it was one that they never had to test. Mamdani's victory in 2025 was
the first real chance the far left has ever had to prove that it was possible
to follow their own doctrine. I have little doubt Mamdani himself believed he
could do so.
What
his first year in office has proven is that governing has a centrist bias and
the warmth of collectivism will always be chilled by the reality of money and
politics. Mamdani has spent most of his first year in office doing everything
possible to try and keep what got him there – mostly using social media and
press opportunities – to make it seem like he was doing everything he promised.
That he was isolating the power structure of New York at every turn as well as
doing nothing to win over constituents who hadn't voted for him – as well as
those who thought his candidacy was dangerous – was irrelevant to him; it
seemed more important that not try to triangulate the right or the center then
to actually get things done.
He
may become a successful or at least competent mayor of New York City but it is
clear given the last few weeks that his juggling act has instead pissed off
everybody and he has gotten no grace from even those who should by any logic
have some measure of fealty to him. That
he seems more interested in trying to appease those who are still deluded on
how government should work and are most interested in burning the whole thing
done – even as they prepare to take national office – then trying to move to
the center shows where his priorities are.
It
would hardly stun me if Mamdani were primaried himself in 2029, perhaps from
the right, definitely from the left.
That this was the exact fate of his predecessor is an irony that he
would hardly appreciate but I suspect many New Yorkers, moderates and the
Democratic establishment itself would enjoy. He'll still be a figure the right
will use to scare working class Americans into voting Republican for the
foreseeable future. The sad part is that
I suspect within a short time many of the people he endorsed will be calling
him the worst name possible: a neoliberal. That they themselves will likely
remain the fringe element they have always been is something they will never
see – but that Democrats really have to.