In the summer of 2025 when the Texas
legislature had begun the first of a seemingly endless battle of partisan
gerrymandering battles my reaction was different then so many other Americans
on either side of the aisle.
"Why are Abbott and the
Republicans bothering?" I thought to myself. "Party keeps heading in this direction
by 2030 they're won't be any left in Texas anyway." This opinion was based
very much on my own research in the subject reminding me yet again how much my
party has been its own worst enemy in
the 21st century.
As I wrote in a separate article about
the Democrats and Dixie:
"During the 1970s Republicans
were now being challenged by a new generation of moderate Democrats. Democrats
had a monopoly on the black vote and the more Republicans ran to the right, the
more it energized the base. Typically Democrats needed little more than a third
of the white vote to ensure victory. These Democratic candidates gave
high-minded but measured speeches about racial progress that flattered the
prejudices of southern voters about how much the South had changed and combined
with the Democrat's New Deal heritage, they had easy entrée to working class
whites and accused Republicans of being the country club set. Men like Fritz Hollings,
Sam Nunn and in Arkansas Dale Bumpers and David Pryor would become fixtures in
the Senate for years and decades to come."
This changed in the aftermath of
Obama's election in 2008. The coalition he managed to build in 2008 was a
variation on the one that came out for George McGovern in 1972. Obama managed
to win not only an overwhelming majority of the black vote, but also a majority
of the women’s vote, two-thirds of the Latino vote (McGovern did the same, but
back then there were less than 5 million Latinos registered) and most of what
we now would call the LGBTQ+ vote.
And in the aftermath of it Obama's DNC
made two decisions which have crippled the party ever since. First they
abandoned Howard Dean's 50 state strategy which had been integral to the
Democrats retaking first both houses of Congress and then the White House in
the aftermath of the 2004 election. Second they made it clear that on a
national and state level they were going to try to build the same multiracial
coalition that had worked for Obama. In other words they were abandoning two
strategies that had worked for the party for nearly forty years in favor of one
that had worked once.
We saw the result even before Obama's
term was over: after the 2014 midterms, the GOP had the biggest margin of in
Congress since 1928 and the Democrats had lost nearly every seat they had in
the Senate. Much of this was based in the ridiculous moronic thinking that what
played for the Democratic coalition at a national level would work in deep red
states. Nowhere was this more apparent in Texas which the Democrats not carried
since 1968, hadn't won a Senate seat since 1988 or the gubernatorial race since
1990.
In 2013 the Democratic Party became
enamored of Wendy Davis, a Texas legislator who had filibustered in the Texas
Senate floor to stop an anti-abortion bill from the state. Her courage and
bravery won the hearts of so many progressives across the country – despite the
fact that all she did was delay it for the next session, at which point the
bill would ultimately pass.
So the party threw its weight behind
her for the governorship against Greg Abbott that fall. Davis ran a pretty
nasty campaign against Abbott, calling the worst names possible in a
desperation move. Davis was hailed by all the left wing journals and lost in a
landslide to Abbott, losing by more than 20 points and not even managing to get
a majority of female votes. It was nearly as bad a defeat as that of John
Cornyn over his Democratic opponent for reelection to the Senate where he
trounced the Democratic candidate David Alameel by nearly a two to one margin.
The Democratic Party knows at its core
that if it is to have a future it has to win states in the South and the West.
Texas which has all the characteristics of both is by far the biggest electoral
prize for Republicans with 40 electoral votes as of the 2020 election. But the
more the national party has gone to the left the more difficult it has been for
Democrats to win not only there but any Southern State. In 2018, however, they
came closer than they had in decades.
Ted Cruz is another in a seemingly
endless line of Texas Republicans that Democrats loathe with a passion. When he
won election to the Senate in 2012 the party wanted to make him a target early.
And in order to do so they ended up going to their past.
Cruz was not particularly popular with
only a 49 percent approval level. It was particularly bad with Latinos at only
29 percent. They chose to nominate Beto O'Rource three term Congressman from El
Paso. O'Rourke was opposed to Obama's immigration policy. O'Rourke planned to
run a positive campaign, not focused on Trump or Cruz. He spent much of his
career trying to win the progressive vote, raising money for small donors.
O'Rourke was compared very much to Obama's campaign for President. And though
few gave him much of a chance – he trailed by 7 points as late as October 18th
– on election day he received more votes than any Democrat in Texas in the
states history, over 4 million. He would lose by just 2.5 percent and give Cruz
a hell of a run.
The Democratic Party, as is often the
case, took the wrong lessons. Rather than argue that O'Rourke had done so well
in this state because he was a white man who had gotten more of the white vote,
they chose to argue that O'Rourke was a national candidate and that Texas could
be won by going progressive. Both were
proven wrong very quickly: O'Rourke ran for governor against Greg Abbott in
2022 and he lost by more than percent. He got 3.5 million votes, which means in
four years half a million voters chose to go back to the GOP.
There have been few signs the
Democrats learned any lesson the next two times a Senate seat in Texas became
available. In 2020 the party nominated MJ Hegar, who had never even held public
office, having lost the run for Congress two years earlier. Cornyn would defeat
her by more than a million votes, getting the largest number of votes any
Republican candidate for Senate had in history and outperforming Trump by 4
percent in that state. When Cruz came up for reelection in 2024 the party chose
to nominate Colin Allred, representative of the 32nd district and an
African American. While the polls would shows a close race, Cruz outperformed
polling defeating Allred by nearly a million votes though he underperformed
compared to Trump in that state.
Showing the party didn't seem to have
learned anything in the leadup to the 2026 Jasmine Crockett, a two term
Congresswoman who was one of the most progressive voices in the Black Caucus
tried to form a movement to run for Senate while getting other candidates like
Allred and Julian Castro to run for governor and lieutenant governor. The GOP,
who had been using Crockett as one of their loudest campaign voices on cable
news and social media to raise money for them, was salivating for that as a
possibility. Fortunately the party's salvation came from another direction.
James Talarico is a former education
who while he was in the Texas House, received a Masters of Divinity. In the
summer of 2021 Democrats in the Texas House, including Talarico, organized a
quorum break in an attempt to stop the passage of legislation they saw as
restricting voting right. Mirroring what would happen four years later in the
gerrymandering battle he and his fellow Democrats flew to DC. However Talarico
broke ranks and was the first to return, acknowledging an infinite quorum break
was unsustainable. He was criticized by those who remained behind but the
legislation did pass. Four years later he would do so again and a law suit was
filed to expel him by Ken Paxton.
One month later Talarico announced his
candidacy for the Democratic nomination for the Senate. While Talarico is
progressive on many issues that appeal to the left -legalization of marijuana,
term limits, congressional reform – he has gone out of his way to woo both the
liberal media and the manosphere, appearing on Joe Rogan's broadcast and Rogan
was so impressed by him he actually suggested Talarico run for President.
Crockett by contrast had gone out of
her way to isolate so many Texans with her incendiary and nearly offensive
remarks about Governor Abbott and had been criticized for apparently using AI
in a Super Bowl campaign add, something her team neither confirmed nor denied.
Texas Democrats chose the more civil Talarico over the fiery Crockett by nearly
six points and while it was clear on primary night she had lost, she refused to
concede until the following morning.
Talarico has another advantage. While
he managed to win his primary the Republican primary would go to a run-off as
John Cornyn would be challenged by a figure who is nearly as much a pariah in
Democratic politics as Cruz and Abbott are: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Ken Paxton has been a staunch ally of
Trump even before Trump ran for President and is flawed even by the standards
of so many Texas politicians. Even before the took office he was indicted on
state securities fraud charges in 2015. In October of 2020 several high level
assistants accused him of bribery, abuse of office and other crimes and in May
of 2023 he was impeached by the Texas House of Representatives by a nearly four
to one margin. The allegations included preferential treatment to a donor who bribed
him, false statements against his financial interests, misapplied public
resources and false statements against whistleblowers. He has constantly been
sued for avoiding the use of subpoenas. He was narrowly acquitted.
In 2015 he created a human trafficking
unit that in 2020 and 2021 has only managed two convictions, two of which were
deferred adjudications. He has been one of the biggest arguers of voter fraud
ever since he took office and has pursued it ever since 2017. He has managed
very few convictions on that as well. That was always going to make him one of
Trump's closes allies even before he spent 22,000 hours looking for voter fraud
after the 2020 election and would sue the states of Georgia, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
While he was being investigated in
February 2023 Paxton accused the House Speaker of being incapacitated. When he
became only the third office holder in Texas history to be impeached, Paxton
then called in a politically motivated sham and said "the RINOs in the
Texas Legislature are now on the same side of Biden." One of the Texas
Senators was Paxton's wife Angela and that combined with the increased support
from Trump and the increasing split between the Texas Republican Party. Angela
didn't vote but she announced that she was divorcing her husband after the 2024
elections.
In retrospect the real surprise is
that it took until today for Donald Trump to endorse Paxton for the Republican
nomination for the Senate. Considering his long history with the President, as
well as the fact he pursued legal action against the Biden administration 105
times and played a vital role in both the redistricting battle as well as
issuing arrest warrants for legislators like Talarico and Crockett as far back
as 2021 its stunning it took him until a week before the runoff takes place for
him to finally endorse him. One suspects it has much to do with the defeat of
Bill Cassidy, a staunch Trump critic, in the Louisiana primary this past
Saturday.
Republican Senators, by contrast, are
very concerned. Susan Collins, facing her own tough reelection battle said:
"(Paxton) is an ethically challenged individual." Majority leader
John Thune could only say: "It's his decision" after months of
lobbying Trump to back Cornyn. Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi said
nothing.
All polls were already showing a close
race between Talarico and either of his Republican challengers. The most recent series of polls show Talarico
with a combined 4.3 percent margin over Paxton, where as he was only leading
Cornyn by 3 percent. In addition Talarico will go into the general election
with multiple advantages over his Republican opponent even if Cornyn manages to
win next week.
Talarico has already had 3 months to
prepare for the general and build his war chest. By contrast just to get to the
runoff between Paxton and Cornyn it cost $128 million, most of it spent by
Cornyn. It was estimated that it might cost as much $200 million even before
the runoff took place. In either the case the Republican Party has already spent a fortune just to get to
one candidate – and the consequences for other Senate races where Democrats are
already doing closer then they should be, such as Iowa and Florida, may put a
party already facing an uphill battle in a deep hole going into the fall
campaign – even before primary season is truly over. Considering that the
President's approval ratings is already only at 35 percent with his support
continuing the soften among his most die hard base that can only improve the
chances of Democrats like Talarico.
There's also the fact that Talarico
and whoever his challenger is will both be white men. And particularly in a
state like Texas, where members of the LatinX demographic were already hugely
moving to the Democrats even before one considers what a rabid anti-immigration
advocate Paxton has been in his tenure as Attorney general, that gives Talarico
an edge that Beto O'Rourke had but Colin Allred and MJ Hegar did not. Considering how problematic so many of his
policies have been, particularly in regards to women and the LGBTQ+ community
Paxton will have a harder time winning them then Cornyn would. And considering that Paxton's wife is
divorcing him under the charge of adultery, one wonders just how much support
he can get from evangelicals.
It's not inconceivable Cornyn could
pull out and upset but whatever candidate gets the nomination will have to deal
with the increasing fissure in the Texas Republican Party which this runoff has
already laid bare. Whoever the winner is will have to spend a fair amount of
time rebuilding the coalition of that party, time that Talarico, who has both
the state and national party behind him already, doesn't need to spend. And
considering how much time and energy the DNC has already spent trying to win Senate
seats in Texas before it will no doubt be a lot easier if Paxton wins the
nomination, considering they loathe him with an even greater furor then they do
Cruz.
It's not yet clear if the Democrats
have a chance to make inroads in the South during this cycle. Jon Ossoff is
facing his first reelection campaign and he's already the heavy favorite even
before the primary tonight. With Thom Tillis choosing not to run for reelection
Roy Cooper, the popular former governor of North Carolina is the heavy favorite
to flip the Senate in what increasingly becoming a swing state. (I'll be
dealing with him later on.)
The prospects in the rest of the south
remain grim as best. I remain unconvinced that Annie Andrews has anymore of a
chance of defeating Lindsay Graham than Jamie Harrison did six years earlier.
Mitch McConnell may be retiring but I have little faith the Democrats will have
any more luck replacing him then they did in the last two cycles. And no matter
how flawed the Republican challenger in Louisiana is (the runoff is not
scheduled for several more weeks) I am heavily skeptical Jamie Davis has any
chance of beating them.
What Talarico has in common with the
incumbents above is what he doesn't have in common with challengers below: it's
always been an easier for a white Democrat to win election to the Senate in the
South then a woman or a person of color has been. The Democratic Party knew
that for the last half of the 20th century and had considerable
success; they forgot it in the aftermath of Obama's win and it has been a
disaster. If Talarico does manage to flip a Republican seat in Texas – still a
big 'if' – it will be because of a lesson in identity politics they've cast
aside during the 21st century to a ridiculous detriment to the party
nationally. It has been clear to me that so many progressives would rather run
a minority candidate and lose by a huge margin in states they could win rather
than win narrowly with a more centrist white male Democrat, who need I remind
them, is still a Democrat.
I am
a pragmatist and I would like there to be a way to be the party that
has minorities among its permanent members without being the permanent
minority party. I'm increasingly beginning to think, that for far too many who
call themselves Democrats, they are fine if we're the latter as long as we are exclusively
the former. That the GOP has made it incredibly clear they're fine with
this as long as they can be the majority makes it clear they understand
politics in a way to many of the most progressive members don't.
Talarico has a much better chance of
winning the Senate in Texas then Jasmine Crockett ever did. Both the history of the party and the
candidates bear that argument out. Maybe
there are still some die-hards who would rather have lost with Crockett then
won with Talarico. If those same people were fine with a Republican winning,
then honestly the Democrats don't need them.
I think the Senate needs more people like Talarico then they do
Crockett's or Paxton's. And if that makes me a DINO in the eyes of some,
well, I'm still a Democrat. Were they?