Okay Matthew Rhys, You're Just Showing Off Now. In A Related Story, Widow's Bay is Awesome

 

 

I'm not unaware when certain TV shows hit the sweet spot between critical and cultural hits. So of course when it became clear that Apple TV's new series Widow's Bay had managed to crack the cultural phenomena I last associated with the first two seasons of The Bear I took notice. But there were other shows on my to-do list. So I didn't get involved.

Then the Astras showed it love and I was intrigued but I made it clear I wasn't going to deal with it during my picks for Best Comedy and I stuck to that vow. Then in the last week both the Dorian Awards and the TCA each gave it a lot of nominations. So I compromised. I wasn't going to list in my decision making but I'd watch the first two episodes and judge for myself.

To be clear this is not the kind of series such as Adolescence or Ozark that I was going to need to be dragged kicking and screaming into watching. It had several of my favorite actors associated with it, including the incomparable Matthew Rhys. It's a given that Rhys was going to get nominated for the Emmys this year for his incredible work in the limited series The Beast In Me and that he'd be intended the show as a nominee along with his wife Keri Russell, quickly rising in the odds for Best Actress in a Drama for her work in The Diplomat.  The series had several actors I admire immensely for their work in other shows most notably the incredible Stephen Root and such familiar faces like Dale Dickey. I suspected the buzz was incredibly well earned.

And having gotten to the first two episodes by the end of this week I know why everybody loves this show. A large part of it is because of the work by Rhys as Tom Loftis, the mayor of the title town who hates this job and the people in it, only won the job because he ran unopposed (the implication is that nobody wants to hold this position) and is now determined to make Widow's Bay the next Nantucket.  The only doubt I had about this show going in was whether or not Rhys could do comedy. Rhys is one of the greatest actors in the 21^st century when it comes to TV but the one thing he hasn't done in twenty years is comedy, even by the loose standards of Widow's Bay, which is clearly a mix of both horror and satire.

That small obstacle was overcome when the mayor came wafting into the town angry and more concerned about the fact a reporter from the Times was coming then that one of his citizens had disappeared the night before.  One of the first questions Loftis is asked is: "Why are you mayor if you hate this town so much?" Tom deflects by saying: "And let someone else run it?" Every moment we spend with Tom I'm reminding of that cliché Eddie Murphy said about white people in horror movies: "You see blood in the toilet; you go get Ajax."  In Widow's Bay everyone in the town is very aware of all the bad things about it but haven't moved – in large part because of the wives tale that those who go to the mainland die not long after leaving. Tom denies these tales and says he's gone to the mainland many times – but he stresses in the pilot he wasn't born here.

Rhys compared his character as the Mayor in Jaws the man whose trying to drum up tourism just as boating accidents become prominent in the small town.  Rhys plays Tom as someone who absolutely would be the voice of reason in most places but because everyone else knows this is a horror movie is the biggest prick imaginable. This is particularly true every time he clashes with Wyck (Root) the town elder, who makes it very clear that a terror is coming to Widow's Bay. "Is that worse then a haunt but better than a fright?" Tom scoffs.

Root, as anyone who watched Barry knows, is an expert at playing between horror and comedy, often within the same moment.  As Wyck he makes it very clear he knows what Tom is: it's not that he's self-righteous, it's that Tom is a coward, full of big talk and no action. Wyck has been through it in a way the much younger Tom hasn't, but the incredibly arrogant Tom pretends there's nothing to see here, even as the strange just piles on.

When Tom shares his memories of this town (in keeping with the satire, he's only open with a ghost) he makes it clear that his father was a local and married his mother and they got divorced young. He ended up staying here on the summers and he makes it very clear that Mr. Loftis was verbally abusive to him and told him horror stories. Because Tom is very much a man of the 21^st century he blames what Mr. Loftis told him on alcoholism. It never occurs to him for a moment that the reason Mr. Loftis got drunk was because of the horrors he might very well have seen on this town.

And while I've described this show to make it sound like a horror film, it's actually hysterically funny from the start. When the reporter from the Times shows up early Tom is appalled to know he's been brought to the Historical Society. He gets there just in time to be told why this town is called Widow's Bay and then spends the next several minutes desperately trying to drag him out before he looks to closely. A highlight comes when the reporter says: "Did church people resort to cannibalism." "What? No?! Where's you see that?" Tom says. The reporter then points to a paper with the headline "Church people resort to cannibalism." Tom then spends the next several seconds trying to polish this saying: "They didn't immediate get there" before sending the reporter to go to certain places on a map that won't give him the wrong impression. In Widow's Bay that's basically four places.

Kate Dippler, the showrunner, has also cast Widow's Bay full of the kind of character actors who have the faces and voices that scream 'some weird shit is going to go down'. So far in addition to Root and Dickey, I've already spotted Christian Clemenson, K Callan and Jeff Hiller as townspeople and while none have had much dialogue their faces and expressions are in the sweet spot between 'wide-eyed yokel' and 'going to get killed by axe wielding murderer'.  And Kate O'Leary, Tom's secretary, adds incredible comic power by the sense that she clearly doesn't know the right thing to say but cares about this town.

It doesn't help Tom that every line out of his mouth is designed to insult the townspeople. When O'Leary's character tells him about how when she was sixteen she was assaulted by a killer known as 'The Boogeyman' and this has scarred her for life, a frustrated Tom says: "Well you're in your forties now. I'd say you're safe." Tom gets into a loud yelling match with Wyck in the second episode about how haunted the inn is and Tom eventually shouts :"F--- you, you dumb hick!" Unfortunately there's a very large crowd gathered around. Tom knows he's stepped in it so he goes out of his way to agree to stay at the inn that night and do every myth related to it.

It's in this episode that it helps that the main director behind Widow's Bay is that immense talent Hiro Murai, who ever since he collaborated with Donald Glover on Atlanta has been one of the great forces for surrealism in television. This is his first venture into horror TV directly and you can tell he's perfect for it during the night at the inn which absolutely plays like something not far removed from 'Teddy Perkins'. Tom stays in the Captain's Suite and turns on the TV which seems to show an old recording of Widow's Bay. "I'll show you around," the man on the screen says. Then the man wanders offscreen but the camera stays put. Of course Tom starts changing the channels and nothing but the footage is there and eventually the old man resurfaces and the screen blows out. Tom ends up going to the game closet which has a group of bizarre games in them, including a card game that just says RUN. He draws four straight cards that say: "NOT YET" and then one that says "RUN".

Widow's Bay  has all the things I love about any superb TV show in its first two episodes. It's a pastiche on the genre but it has immense respect for it.(The title itself is clearly a satire of Stephen King's Salem's Lot and there are countless easter eggs in the first two episodes alone to the master.) Like many of the characters the viewer doesn't know how much to trust what they're seeing early on, though the later we get it makes it clear that the horror is real. It's superbly written, directed and acted by some of the greatest forces in the medium. And it’s a far more genuine satire of the horror movie experience then we get these days from Scream which has long since become a ghost of itself.

Only the first seven episodes of Widow's Bay are eligible for consideration by the Emmys for this year. And it's unclear if the Emmys will be willing to give it the recognition it deserves: historically the Academy rarely gives enough recognition to shows that debut this late in the season (the show debuted in late April and only aired its final episodes earlier this month). But I'd have no objections if Rhys and the writers and directors were among the nominees this fall. I wouldn't go anywhere near the town of Widow's Bay but I gladly watch all of the scary things that happen there.

My score: 4.5 stars.

 

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmy Nominations, Week 1 Conclusion: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy

 

As we finish up with this category with The Studio not in contention and as always with a lack of clarity where SNL will finish in the discussion there will definitely be some new faces in this category as well as some justifiably familiar ones. There is a clear frontrunner in this category but she's been the frontrunner before and it didn't turn out that way. With that in mind here we go with the seven nominees I'm predicting.

 

Hannah Einbinder, Hacks

Unlike the majority of the world I'm able to separate the artist from the art. I find the increasing and strident politicizing of Hannah Einbinder on almost everything in the world ironic because its who her character on Hacks was at the start of her journey but by the end of it she's shown so much growth that she would have little use for the Gen Z's who engage in polemic like Hannah Einbinder has basically been doing non-stop for the last year.

And yet there's no denying that Hacks can't work without the incredible dynamo that is Hannah Einbinder's Ava. Part of the reason I love watching her perform so much of the time is that Ava represents almost unironically the worst parts of Gen Z: a woman so unwilling to offend people in the world of comedy that it basically affects every aspect of her personal life. This was shown most hysterically when she ended up dating a sex worker who she met at a gig and she was so proud of how much he enjoyed what he was doing that she actually seemed offended that this was just something he was doing to realize his dream of becoming a magician.

But what has changed about Ava is her deep and abiding love for Deb,  which has become critical to the final season. At first she was so desperate to get out of her funk that she blindly agreed with everything she said. Then she continued on this journey, to a fan convention, to a tribute to the Paley center, to posing as the romantic lover of Deb to try and get a prop, to finally realizes where Deb was – and actually making a dark but happy ending.

I was overjoyed when Einbinder finally won last year in this category: the Emmys have not been nearly generous enough to her over the show's run (though there has been a lot of great competition as you'll see)I may loathe Einbinder's politics but I love her work and that's enough for me to advocate for her.

 

Janelle James, Abbott Elementary

I was stunned – but overjoyed – when the Critics Choice Awards gave Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy to James for her incredible work as the other Ava in this category. The thing is, unlike the character she plays so brilliantly the Emmys have never been willing to recognize (yet) the incredible force that Janelle James has been.

It's always stunning to see just how much Ava has grown and how much she remains quintessentially Ava. Yes, she still wants to put in the minimum amount of work as principal and yes she still puts down almost everyone on the faculty. But the thing is, in Season 5, she's clearly trying in a way she wasn't back in the early seasons. She's fighting more for the faculty with the district, when the furnace exploded she spent her winter vacation finding a replace to teach the students (yes it was an abandoned mall but it was the best she could do) she spent much of the time hiding from the parents but also trying to get the district to help, she kept contorting the policies to fit her ventures, she ended up first hurting, then helping Jacob's run for district representative, then tried to help Ava get over her breakup with Gregory by getting drunk (and being horrified by what drunk Janine looked like) trying to build Ava Fest while getting Gregory and Janine back together (it happened despite her best efforts) and finally managing to keep Abbott open despite doing nothing.

All of this is done with James continuing to have the most extraordinary comic dialogue in this series whenever they give her a chance to. When she does the school's podcast, when she acknowledges all the gifts she gives, when she takes every opportunity to put down Janine, she is always wondrous. But by now we know she has a heart buried deep within the product, particularly in her new romantic relationship where she's increasingly bothered by her boyfriend being as good looking as her. Naturally he tried to hide himself but "They can tell you have a good heart."

I want James to win in this category eventually. This year it would be unlikely even if there wasn't an overwhelming favorite but I would love to see it play out. Ava thinks the world revolves around her and the thing is whenever Abbott Elementary does, you really wish it did.

 

Justine Lupe, Nobody Wants This

It's been clear from the start of this series that Morgan is by far the most self-destructive member of the entire cast. Beneath the hysterical byplay between her and Joanne you can tell there's just something in her that wants to immolate herself  - in a fabulous outfit of course. Justine Lupe has been a great actress on TV for awhile but as Morgan she's gotten a chance to shine in a way she never has before.

More than any other character in Season 2 we got the clearest sense of how broken Morgan was when she revealed – at a family birthday – that she was dating her therapist.  Even Joanne knew how dangerous this one and while she tried to support her the words "He knows how broken I am and it hasn't scared him off" realized how scarred she was by the family they'd lived in. When she got engage and really seemed to be determined to go through the wedding despite how everyone was convinced this was a horrible idea, it was like watching a slow-moving, albeit gorgeous, trainwreck. Only at the end of the season did she finally realize for herself how horrible things were and just how toxic her problems were.

This was highlighted by the way she seemed isolated from her friendship with Sascha, which she clearly needed more than she thought. It's clear that Morgan's never had an adult friend outside of Joanne and we've seen throughout Season 1 how fragile that was. This led to hysterical moments we needed.

Lupe has been nominated for a Critics Choice Award in this category last fall but since then some of the buzz around her and the show has begun to die. Lupe is my longshot in this category ahead of some of the more obvious choices (Carol Burnett in Palm Royale was the biggest one) I'm rooting for Lupe the way I root for Morgan and I think she deserves to be here.

 

Michelle Pfeiffer, Margo's Got Money Troubles

It took a decade from when her husband began his creative rebirth on cable and streaming for Michelle Pfeiffer to breakdown and work in one of his series. Watching her work as Shayenne, the ultimate GMILF, it was more than worth the wait.

When Shayenne learned that Margo had gotten knocked up as a teenager, she was upset because she was certain this would ruin her future. Much of the first season was built on this complicated, messy, loving relationship between mother and daughter. Lorelai and Rory they are not, particularly considering that she made it very clear she was not getting involved with the baby.  Shayenne was trying to build her own life with a new and relatively good man (Greg Kinnear would be a good choice for an Emmy nomination himself) but it was completely the opposite of who she was. And she was not thrilled when Jinx showed up on their doorstep after years of absence.

The irony is that Shayenne was, in her messy way, correct about the bad decision both her daughter and her former lover had made in their lives. But she handled it, as you'd expect, badly (though how would you react if your daughter was on OnlyFans?)In a time of struggle as the custody battle became dark, she proved how loving and considerate she was and how she was more than willing to punch a bully in the face.  The season finale showed her highpoint as the grandson who never seemed to like her showed it at the right time – and her nadir when she learned who called DCF on Margo setting the chaos up.

Like Harrison Ford Pfeiffer somehow has gotten to this point in her career without a single award in her trophy case. Now she's appeared on the small screen in a one-two punch and this is her best chance at getting an Emmy down the road.  And its good to know, nearly forty years after The Fabulous Baker Boys, that she still has an incredible voice.

Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary

As with Quinta Brunson the Emmys honored Sheryl Lee Ralph right off the bat when she won in one of the greatest moments in the ceremony's in 2022.  Ralph has been nominated every year since and will almost certainly be nominated. If you've seen Abbott you don't need me to give a reason to advocate for her.

Ralph's Barbara is the heart and soul of Abbott Elementary ever since the first season. She's the mentor, the best friend, the elder stateswomen, the religious but not forcing it on everybody kind, the teacher who can do everything. Most of the time Barb's humor comes when she unintentionally is, like when she watches Avatar: Fire & Ash with Melissa and Mr. Johnson having never seen the first two movies and pauses to ask questions after every scene. By this point her inability to understand pop culture seems so much part of the Zeitgeist then when the cast did a taped sequence to open the SAG Awards, it was understood that Barbara didn't know the difference between Jennifer Lawrence and Jennifer Coolidge.

Barbara has spent much of Season Five getting her spark back and gently pushing everyone in Abbott to be happier. Don't get me wrong, she still misreads people (as with one student played by Luke Tennie) but everyone knows she's the Mama Bear and will fight for them in her subtle ways when she needs to. She doesn't like getting involved but when she does (as she did by helping Janine realize her issues with Gregory really had to do with her mother) it always works. And of course in the season finale when she took the band hostage, created an open bar and then did crowd surfing (something we didn't see but she denied afterwards even though it happened) she proved how much fun she could be.

Like Einbinder, Ralph is one of two previous winners I've shortlisted for nominees this year. It would be nice if she won again but I don't think she needs too, not this year. That said maybe she could do a musical number with her Pfeiffer and maybe Meryl Streep? It would be fun.

 

Megan Stalter, Hacks

I really do think Kayla was a throwaway character when the writers created Hacks. She certainly didn't do much but drive Jimmy crazy in Season 1. Then somehow during Season 2 the writers decided that despite being clueless Kayla had dreams like everyone else connected to Hacks. Then they decided to stop making her a clueless lovebird with Jimmy and decide for the two of them to try and be friends, if not partners. Suddenly Kayla's cluelessness was mixed with heart.

With each season driven by the force of nature that is Meg Stalter Kayla become increasingly ride or die with Jimmy to the point that by the time we reached the final seasons fans were begging for a spinoff with Jimmy and Kayla running an agency. And the thing is I'd absolutely watch if it meant I could spend more time watching Stalter do anything even read the phone book.

Because even though she still can read the room or overcorrects with everything in her heart, who whenever given the opportunity will absolutely say the wrong thing or make a bad situation worse (though always hysterically funny),  Meg Stalter has taken what could have easily been a cliché character and turns into the heart of Hacks. She may be loud, she may be clueless, but she absolutely cares about Jimmy and all of the clients around her.  She hasn't failed upward, she's actually good at her job, and she knows what she's doing. By the time we reach the end of the series Jimmy and Kayla have managed a victory just as astounding and astonishing as anything Deb or Ava have accomplished. That's something that I would have found impossible to believe at the end of Season 1.

To be clear Stalter absolutely should have been nominated for an Emmy as early as Season 2. I do admit the categories have been overwhelmingly stacked over the years but don't pretend for a moment that anything Liza Colon-Zayas has ever done on The Bear is as funny as Stalter can do in a single line of dialogue.  Stalter, like the character she plays, is a force of nature as much as comedy and she has a bright future. She deserves a nomination as the lights dim on Hacks.

 

Jessica Williams, Shrinking

Jessica Williams has in many ways been the center of so much of what happens on Shrinking – taking care of Paul even when he doesn't want it, trying to help Alice when she doesn't need it, building her way into the relationship of Derek and Liz, trying to find a way to rebuild with her broken family, finding a career of her own. Gaby spent the season trying to build her way as a teacher, trying to figure out her relationship with Derrick #2, having a crisis of confidence about everything, rebuilding with Paul and then at the end of the season, making a happy discovery.

Williams has always been a joy for me ever since she began her career on The Daily Show back in 2012 and the fact that the Emmys are making her a regular is a great pleasure. I don't think she'll have much of a chance this year to win but I'm fine with that.

 

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Nicole Kidman, Margo's Got Money Troubles

Another David E. Kelley production, another appearance by Nicole Kidman. But I'll be honest, this is the most dynamic work she's done in any production of his since the second season of Big Little Lies ended and, with the sole exception of her work in Lioness, the best performance she's done on TV this decade.

And its because Kidman, for the first time, is playing a David E. Kelley character. Lace is a former female wrestler who knew Jinx from the circuit (they were clearly lovers) has done work on OnlyFans and now works as an attorney. Kelley has enough intelligence to keep Lace as a side character (Kidman only appears in four episodes) withholding her until the custody battle unfolds where she has to be the grownup among a family in crisis. With an iron glove she leads Margo and the Millets telling them the hard things they have to do, including getting Jinx out of the house when he OD's, tells them that the odds are against them as things progress, and gets them to the final scene. And because she's Nicole Kidman she does it with grace, humor and wearing fabulous outfits.

My favorite moment of her work – the one that I'm willing to submit her for consideration – is the scene between Lace and Shayenne before the final hearing. Shayenne is in tears because she believes somehow all of this is her fault and Lace tells her something she might never have been told in her life: that this isn't on her. I suspect Kidman will be nominated for producing this series but an acting nomination would be, well, a lace bow on top of the picture.

 

That's everything for comedy. Starting Monday I'm going to get, well, dramatic as I deal with what I think should be contending for Drama this year.

Homicide Season 6 Rewatch: Prelude

 

In retrospect its astonishing that Homicide made it to Season 6.  During Season 5 the ratings boost it had gotten during its fourth season was all but gone due to the intense competition from CBS's Nash Bridges. And going into the 1997-1998 season Homicide found itself where it had been so many times before: facing cancellation.

But this time there were even bigger obstacles hindering it then it had to deal with before. The most significant was behind the scenes. Tom Fontana had formed his own production company with Barry Levenson and HBO had been willing to greenlight his first original project. The result aired during the summer of 1997 and would help change TV forever.

OZ was set in a fictional prison: the Oswald State Correctional Facility and it was unlike any drama that had ever aired on television before, even within the confines of cable. Dark, unrelenting and graphic in terms of violence, profanity and nudity Fontana was granted a creative freedom that no writer in TV history had ever been given before. He would write eight episodes and cast the series with recurring characters that had played small roles on Homicide in the five previous season and would continue to bring in guest actors in the two seasons that were to follow.

While critical reaction to this incredibly dark series was mixed it signaled that HBO was willing to take creative risks and back its creators in a way that NBC for one just wouldn't do. The result would lead to HBO becoming the wellspring for the new Golden Age of TV, one that David Simon would become a critical part of in the 21^st century.

With Fontana taking a back seat to writing the show Homicide had to deal with what was the usual pattern of cast departures. Between seasons Melissa Leo and Max Perlich would leave the show. Unfortunately NBC handled it clumsily particularly with Leo. She'd been in the tabloids due to battles with her boyfriend John Heard and while she was the victim NBC, who'd never been keen on her character, took the opportunity to argue for her dismissal. Perlich had also been accused of criminally negligent behavior, including the discharge of a firearm. More to the point neither character had been used to their best potential for much of Season 5.

Fontana attempted to cover for the network by saying he was tired of writing for both of their characters. It backfired immediately, creating bad press for all concerned.

 But more than anything else there was news that troubled every single fan of the show at the time myself included. At the start of the season Andre Braugher announced that, even if the show was renewed, he was going to hang up his badge. It was difficult to blame Braugher for wanting to seek greener pastures: he'd been the focus of Homicide for nearly six years and like many leading men he wanted to try his luck on film. We were seeing this trend play out for many dramas during the 1990s: the following year George Clooney would leave ER and David Duchovny would force The X-Files to relocate from Vancouver to Hollywood to suit his increasing demand for film roles.

With all this as well as the fact that Homicide had been sold into syndication the previous April there was no longer much of a reason for NBC to keep Homicide on the air. It just wasn’t make enough of a return on its investment for the network to keep sinking money into a show that could never get above third place in its timeslot. So at the start of the season  the network heads sent the message: get the ratings up or this is it.

Add to this Homicide was engaged in adding the most new cast members to its show in its history. We'd already met Paul Falsone in the season finale and had been reintroduced to Stu Gharty back then. In addition we'd meet newcomer Callie Thorne as Laura Ballard. So there is no reason that Season 6 should have worked at all.

And yet if you ask either critics or fans of the series they will all tell you that Season Six is arguably the best season in Homicide's entire run. The series would by far do the best with the Emmys in terms of nominations during its tenure, with six nominations and 2 awards. (I'll deal with them as we go through the season. The show would win its third Peabody Award for Season 6 win the TCA award for outstanding Achievement in Drama with Andre Braugher winning his second consecutive TCA for Outstanding Achievement in Acting. The series would be nominated for three WGA awards for Best Episodic Drama.

Awards aside Homicide spends the entire season more sure of itself from the first shot to the last. The entire team must have known their jobs were hanging by a thread more then usual but you don't see any of that in any of the actor's performances or any of the writing. Indeed rather then try to make the show more accessible to the new viewer Simon, Yoshimura and the writers basically involve the entire season around a major storyline that looms over the squad in almost every episode, even when its not being talked about directly.  Some series like NYPD Blue and The X-Files had tried these kinds of stories before during their run but we were still several years away from first cable and then network television having an entire season basically devoted to one single plot. Homicide has tried this before as early as the first season but the writers were never nearly as ambitious as they were here and the entire cast shows they're up for the challenge.

If that weren't enough many of the individual investigations tweak the format of how Homicide has been working murders over the last five seasons. More than any other season the show has us looking at violent death from every angle, and more often then not the victims are still alive to tell their stories when we meet them. Throw in a crossover with Law & Order and the sixth season of Homicide stands as one the great triumphs not just in the show's run but arguably all of TV history.

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmy Nominations, Week 1, Day 4: Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy

 

I have more leeway in this category then the previous two as the Emmys as they have in past year have room for seven nominees in this category. And I have some freedom because last year's winner Jeff Hiller (hooray) isn't eligible as well as Ike Barinholtz for The Studio. Bowen Yang, a perennial favorite for his work in SNL, will have difficulty considering he left the show mid-season.

This leaves some openings for new faces or in a sense faces from older shows. And while there's another overwhelming favorite in this category he was the overwhelming favorite last year too.

 

Paul W. Downs, Hacks

I have no way of knowing if when Downs created Jimmy at the start of Hacks he had any idea how important his character was going to be by the end of the series. I think he and his beloved wife Lucia Aniello just thought he was going to be there solely for comic relief, end of story. But like so many things about Hacks Jimmy has become just as important to the show by the final season to the point that he and Kayla's stories are nearly as fun to watch as the main action involving Deb and Ava, to the point that many want there to be a spinoff of the two.

Downs has done a huge amount to show character growth with each new season. This was just as true in the final season as in the first. He is perennially put upon, always misreading situations, listening to much to Kayla, always being pressured by his clients and taken for granted. But by now the average viewer loves him as much as all the other characters and is rooting for him to succeed. And Jimmy has become more savvy, finding a way to make a place for himself with the Fatty Arbuckle movie he's been producing (with his mom filming a role), finding a way to brainstorm a pilot with Ava, working to put together a club with Deb and in the final episode making it clear just how vital Ava was to Deb and Deb to Ava.

Downs, to be clear, has gotten his share of awards for writing and producing Hacks over the years and he doesn't need to win a Supporting Actor award in my book. He's done enough. But he  more than deserves a nomination and he's almost certainly got one locked up. And come on, I want to see him and Meg Stalter hosting the Emmys in the not so distant future. Cause that would be awesome.

 

Harrison Ford, Shrinking

It might be a bit much to say that this award is Harrison Ford's to lose. I did think this last year and I was surprised (delightfully I admit) that Jeff Hiller prevailed. But considering that Ford is now at the age when the Lifetime Achievement Awards are coming in – he did receive one from SAG-AFTRA this past March – you do get the feeling it's about time to give him some kind of actual award. Ford has been, as they say, a supergiant among movie stars: one of the greatest actors in terms of box office draw even before you include his legendary creations of Han Solo and Indiana Jones. That he remains so incredibly humble even at this point is astonishing.

And that is before you get to just how incredibly funny he has been as Paul on Shrinking from day one.  Considering that some of the greatest comic actors of the 21^st century were in this cast from the start, many of whom are doing some of their work in this show, it's astonishing that Ford has the innate ability to with a single line delivered completely deadpan, make you laugh longer and harder then any of them without seeming to try. Ford has been underappreciated because he is such a naturalistic performer for whom everything he does just seems so easy and watching him in every scene you know it.

That's before you consider the dark, if inevitable turns that Season 3, takes as Paul finds the progression of his Parkinson's becoming harder to deal with. We knew this from the start of the season, Paul's known just as long, but that doesn't make it any easier to bear. Like the village around him we are devoted to Paul, even as he denies that he deserves it.  Much of the greatness of this show has been how Paul, in the twilight of his years, is trying to rebuild everything he pushed away for his career and how he's hoping its not too late. We're glad to find it isn't, not yet anyway.

Ford starts the Emmy race for this year as he did last year: the prohibitive favorite for Best Supporting Actor. There are no guarantees he'll win and I suspect both Ford and the character he plays would be fine with it, saying the work is all that matters. But damn your modesty. I want this for you and I think the whole world does.

 

Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear

I made it clear that for The Bear I was going to ignore it from the consideration mainly because the majority of the awards shows have done the same. However I don't think they'll make that exception for Moss-Bachrach. His Richie, who started the show as an out-of-touch anachronism, has within the run of the series become the character who has by far made the most progress, far more than Carmy who if anything has been moving backwards ever since the series debuted in terms of character growth.  Of all the characters Richie has become the one who wants to rid the burden of being a screw-up, whose trying so hard to success and who can never forgive himself for what happened to Jimmy all those years ago, something he made clear in the season finale. He's the only person going into the final season whose noticeably less broken then when the series began.

The season finale is a tour de force for the core four and Moss-Bachrach demonstrates that he is going somewhere. When you throw in the immense publicity for the surprise episode of 'Gary' that was dropped last month I think Moss-Bachrach will survive the purge.

Nick Offerman, Margo's Got Money Troubles

There was a time when the Emmys had no idea Nick Offerman existed despite his iconic work as Ron Swanson. Fortunately in this decade they've been making up for lost time. He deservedly won his first Emmy for acting in the iconic 'Long, Long Time' episode of The Last of Us two years ago. Now he has a chance to be nominated for Supporting Actor in two different categories. He definitely will for his work in Jinx in Margo's Got Money Troubles.

Jinx was the pro-wrestler father who was so absentee Margo was stunned when he ended up on her doorstep not long after she'd given birth to Bodhi. We already knew Jinx was getting out of rehab for heroin when we met him which is why it took him so long to respond. He was more than willing to show up for his daughter, something his birth mother didn't like at all. Jinx then had to deal with multiple problems one after another. To his credit he took Margo's doing work on OnlyFans in stride (better then her mother did) and wanted to be protective. Like most dads he took it too far (though the baby daddy deserved worse then getting his hand crushed) and then he helped Margo stage many of her early scenes involving the Hungry Ghost for wrestling moves which was both fun. He was there for Margo when things went bad and then spectacularly he screwed up, destroying almost everything he'd built.

Offerman perfectly balances the comedy and drama in Margo as well as any of the cast which makes sense given his long career. It would have been easy to turn Jinx into the caricature he could have been but Offerman handled it sublimely at every step, showing the humanity and the pain behind everything he's done. Of all the characters at the end of Season 1 his future is the cloudiest but we hope he can win back Margo's trust because of Offerman's humanity. It's another great performance as Offerman moves beyond one of the greatest characters in TV history to become one of the greatest characters in TV history.

 

Timothy Simons, Nobody Wants This

As someone who absolutely hated Simons work on Veep – and yes I know that was kind of the point, his work as Sascha on Nobody Wants This has been a revelation, even more than the rest of the cast.  Sascha is just as put upon and frequently subject to as much abuse as Jonah was but unlike that character he seems perfectly fine with it – and more to the point, he's a human being.

Sascha spent much of Season 2 trying to deal with the small problem that he had built a friendship without his wife's approval. And worst of all with Morgan. To be clear there never has been nor do the writers intend to build up a romantic relationship, not the least because Jonah is still very much in love with his wife and knows how lucky he is to have her. But that's part of the fun of this show as well as Sascha's character. In the hierarchy of the Jewish family the second son is always ignored until he screws up and despite the fact Sascha is a good husband and a father – something Noah isn't yet, by the way – his good works will be underappreciated. But he keeps trying like the good Jewish son he is and he's more lovable in every scene he's a part of.

There has been some buzz for Simons getting a nomination this year: he was nominated by both the Critics Choice Awards and the Astras in Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy. With a lot of the contenders from previous years ineligible his chances have come up immensely and really both Simons and Sascha deserve it.

 

Michael Urie, Shrinking

Urie's Brian ostensibly started Shrinking as the most shallow character. Like every character on Shrinking it was deflection as Michael Urie brings the heart along with the over-the-top humor he shows with every scene he does.

In Season 1 we watched Brian get married. In Season 2 we saw him focus on the idea of fatherhood, first being terrified by it and then in classic Brian fashion overcommitting. It paid off as the surrogate Ava became entranced by them and in Season 3 Brian became a proud papa. As the show progressed Brian's inability to stop meddling continued both in good ways and bad, as so many members of the cast faced their internal struggles include Derek and Paul's health's struggles Jimmy's efforts to move on, his struggles with his own daughter and eventually Brian's own failings which I won't go into here. We've always seen Brian as overdramatic, much of the time we now see it in terms of tears of a clown as someone who laughs so he doesn't cry.

Urie was nominated for his work last year and has been a presence in nominations leading up to the Emmys. It's not clear how much of a chance he has of winning, particularly against his co-star, but he remains a comic dynamo and I'm glad he's part of it.

 

Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary

I was, to put it mildly, irked when Colman Domingo ended up getting nominated ahead of Tyler James Williams last year. (I was fine with Jeff Hiller being there, to be clear.) Nothing against Domingo but Williams has been the MVP of Abbott Elementary for five seasons on facial expressions alone. At this point only Jack Benny rivals him as a comparison for saying so much with a silent facial expression.

Williams continued to a lot during Season 5 both when it came to saying nothing and saying something. To be clear Gregory has as funny dialogue as anyone else on Abbott when given a chance. His delivery is hysterical as so much of the time its deadpan. But its been fun watching him thrive in a productive relationship with Janine, as they found a way to move into a new place together, then as they struggled with their first fight, then as Gregory got ridiculously, hysterically drunk, then as they rebuilt their relationship with less manipulation then you'd think. (It's remarkable how much good Mr. Johnson can be on relationships when he needs to be.)

Finally on the season finale they headed to Miami for vacation and Gregory had perfect confidence in Janine. He ended up leaving the trip with Abbott reopened and himself as Assistant principal. And as he confided it's looking like a proposal is happening down the road.

Williams should have an Emmy by this point, though let's not kid ourselves the competition has been kind of stacked during this period. I don't think he'll win this year but I do think he'll return to the ranks and he'll be happy with it. (Though of course he'll never show it.)

 

FYC

William Stanford Davis, Abbott Elementary

In five seasons of watching Abbott Elementary I've given love and appreciation to every single member of the cast  in the Emmy nominations – except for William Stanford Davis. And because I don't want him to call me trash, I'll do it here.

Davis's Johnson has always been one of the most constantly hysterical characters in the entire cast, and Brunson's decision to upgrade him to series regular in Season 2 was another in a long line of brilliant decisions.  It's always fun watching him, and this was clear from the start of the season when we learned he couldn't ride a bike until the end of the season when he chose to repaint the parking places while everyone was on vacation. In between he lectured us on how the furnace was going to explode, got into a war with the cafeteria staff, found to his astonishment women could be janitors just as well as they could be rocket scientists, got ready to go to the Janitor's ball, tried to get his passport at the DMV (where he met one of his nemesis), mocked the idea of April Fool's jokes, and did other more important and funnier stuff. Honestly if they were to do a spinoff of the world of janitors with Mr. Johnson as the lead, I think everybody would watch. (My theory is that the Janitor from Scrubs is his poker buddy.)

Davis has gotten some award nominations from the Image Awards over the years and we all saw how funny he could be at the SAG Awards. Isn't it time custodians got recognized at the Emmys? Representation matters, after all. (Then again, maybe one of his past jobs was as a network executive.)

 

Tomorrow I wrap it up in this week with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy. I always have fun with this one.

Emmy Watch 2026 Phase 3 Continued: The 2026 Dorian TV Nominations

 

I've actually much of the last few weeks wondering when GALECA would give the relatively new Dorian TV nominations. I've been tracking them over the last three years much the same way I've been tracking the Image Awards and the BAFTA TV awards because while they understandably mostly pay tribute to the LGBTQ+ community that doesn't mean that they only honor shows that are centered around them and considering the increasing overlap particularly in cable and streaming of characters and storylines there have been more than a few shows where we've seen the benefits.

So halfway through Pride Month the nominations have come out and there's basically what you'd expect and a few things you wouldn't. Let's get started.

 

BEST TV DRAMA

No surprise that Heated Rivalry is here or that Pluribus and The Pitt are. I am impressed Industry and The Gilded Age are here instead of Euphoria, particularly considering that this show has more themes and characters in keeping with GALECA but I guess they have the same standards as most critics and admit Season 3 stank.

 

BEST TV COMEDY

No real surprises. Here are Abbott Elementary, Hacks and Shrinking along with The Comeback and the fast rising Widow's Bay. Is this is another hint to Emmy voters?

 

BEST LGBTQ+ TV SHOW

The Comeback and Hacks represent comedy, Heated Rivalry and Pluribus represent drama; Half Man is here for Limited Series.  No complaints.

 

BEST TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

The usual suspects: All Her Fault, Season 2 of Beef, DTF St. Louis, Half Man and Love Story. Slightly surprised DTF made it in over Beast in Me. Emmys will have to make some hard choices down the road.

 

I'll skip non-English TV shows because I don't know any of the contenders and I don't want to sound ignorant.

 

BEST WRITTEN TV SHOW

The Comeback and Hacks for Comedy; Heated Rivalry, Pluribus and The Pitt for drama. Can't really argue.

 

BEST TV PERFORMANCE DRAMA

Acknowledging Connor Storrie and Hudson Williams are ineligible for consideration let's look at the other eight nominees in degree of likelihood of nomination.

Mark Ruffalo is a lock for Task as is Noah Wyle for The Pitt in Best Actor in a Drama. Carrie Coon, Rhea Seehorn and Zendaya are certainties for Best Actress in a Drama. Jamie Bell is a lock for Half Man. The odds for Marisa Abela and Myha'la in Industry remain slim at best, regardless of their quality: both women are in overwhelmingly stacked categories. (I would be fine if  either was included over Zendaya, but that's just me.)

 

BEST SUPPORTING TV PERFORMANCE DRAMA

Again since  Heated Rivalry is ineligible I'll go in degree of likelihood.

Katherine LaNassa and Karolina Wydra are locks for Supporting Actress. It's not clear how much of a chance Isa Briones or Sepideh Moafi will have for The Pitt though their chances are decent. (No sign of Taylor Dearden.) Patrick Ball is a lock for Supporting Actor in a Drama and Charles Melton and Richard Gadd are locks for Supporting Actor nominations in a Limited Series. Ken Leung's chances for Supporting Actor for Industry are very remote and Colman Domingo might get in for Euphoria but likely as a Guest Actor rather then Supporting. (I don't know which category he submitted for.)

 

BEST TV PERFORMANCE COMEDY

Well there's a good chance all five females in this category are going to the Emmys. Quinta Brunson, Ayo Edebiri, Elle Fanning, Lisa Kudrow and Jean Smart have been favored for nominations for months. The only real question is whether Selena Gomez or Kristen Bell or any other women can get past them.

The males are a different story. Ethan Hawke has a chance for The Lowdown and Matthew Rhys odds' for Widow's Bay are rising. After that it gets foggy. Tim Robinson's early buzz for The Chair Company has not let to major awards recognition, the focus on nominations for big mistakes comes for Laurie Metcalf but not Dan Levy and Wonder Man has the same odds as any MCU project does getting nominated in any category other than limited series: non-existent. I'll give GALECA points for being eclectic.

 

BEST SUPPORTING TV PERFORMANCE IN A COMEDY

Supporting Actress first. Hannah Einbinder, Janelle James and Michelle Pfeiffer are sure things. I really want Meg Stalter to be there. Kate O'Flynn is rising for Widow's Bay but I don't think she has much of a chance. Ashley Padilla has an uphill clime for SNL and Leslie Bibb is compete for Guest Actress.

Paul W. Downs and Harrison Ford are sure things. I wouldn't think Colman Domingo has a chance for The Four Seasons but I said that last year and I was wrong. I'm slightly surprised not to see Michael Urie here for Shrinking.

 

BEST UNSUNG TV SHOW

Good for the Dorians for standing by English Teacher even after all the brickbats for its star. He deserved them, the show didn't.

From definitely deserves recognition and I can see that for The Four Seasons and Murderbot. I get why Boots is here.

 

BEST GENRE TV SHOW

Pluribus and Widow's Bay are here as you'd expect. I'm glad to see Welcome to Derry and Alien: Earth and I get why The Boys has to be here.

 

BEST ANIMATED TV SHOW

Good mix. Bob's Burgers, Invincible, Hazbin Hotel, Long Story Short and South Park.

 

MOST VISUALLY STRIKING TV SHOW

I'm glad to see The Gilded Age is here along with Pluribus. Alien: Earth makes sense and honestly it would be odd if Euphoria wasn't here. Heated Rivalry I guess prevails.

 

CAMPIEST TV SHOW

Yeah this is where The Hunting Wives was absolutely going to show up. We all knew it. Glad to see it here with The Comeback, Palm Royale and The Traitors. By the way All's Fair is in this category but not in the good way the other four shows are.

 

The majority of the other categories are irrelevant to much of my coverage – Reality TV, TV Musical, Foreign TV show but there are some things I can appreciate.

In Best Musical number The Muppet Show got nominated twice and Miss Piggy and Kermit are competing against Bad Bunny.  I was also thrilled that 'I Lied to You' at the Oscars is here. That was a masterpiece.

I was glad to see the Documentary Series nominations included Seen and Heard: The History of Black Television and The Yogurt Shop Murders and that LGBTQ+ Documentary covered Murder In Glitterball City and Enigma. I hope next year we will see similar recognition across the board for the just aired Bring Me The Beauties.  And any awards shows that gives as much recognition to Alan Cumming is this is perfect in my book.

I will resume my regularly scheduled Emmy coverage later today.

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmys, Week 1, Part 3: OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

 

Again we're dealing with only five nominees and this is where I have to make some of the  unkindest cuts. Even  by deciding to set aside Ayo Edebiri voluntarily I have to decide to ignore Lisa Kudrow for the final season of The Comeback (she might very well make it anyway) Kristen Bell for Season 2 of Nobody Wants This or Kristin Wiig for the second and (sob!) final season of Palm Royale. And those are just the actresses who've been nominated in the last two years for their excellent work.

But let's not kid ourselves. When it came to this year these are the queens.

 

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

No one owes Quinta Brunson anything by this point. She got an Emmy for the Pilot the first year Abbott debuted, she won for Best Actress its second year on the air and every year like clockwork she gets two nominations for acting and producing minimum.  Everything that's happened to her since 2022 has to be gravy.

It would be so easy for her to rest on her laurels and yet every year she goes out of her way to make Janine just as much of a joy to watch. Here we see Janine and Gregory in a good romantic place yet again, wearing ridiculous Halloween costumes on a campfire, trying to communicate when both have been silenced by a student exercise, trying to find a way to power through when they have to teach in a mall, Janine trying to find a way to secretly give homework when its banned…you know, usual stuff.

But Brunson's finest hour came near the final stretch, first when she and Gregory broke up when they couldn't agree on the goals of vacations, then when she ended up getting horribly drunk and went from silly to mean in a way we've never seen (getting banned from her favorite club), then being fake manipulated by Jacob in talking with Greg and failing, then listening to Barbara and really dealing with her issues. Then they ended up at a Miami meeting at district when it seemed like Abbott would get closed down and she tried to come up with a plan – and nearly ended up doing something on Mostly Fans. (Hey, that's Margo's way to provide for her loved ones. See below.) Of course Abbott muddled through and it looks like wedding bells will be in the future as well as countless jokes by Ava about finding a dress small enough to fit Janine.

Brunson doesn't need another shiny award for her trophy shelf: if anything she may need to have a case built before Abbott comes to an end. But I need to put Brunson first because as we all know, neither she nor Janine would.

 

Elle Fanning, Margo's Got Money Troubles

I've made it clear I couldn't get into The Great, Elle Fanning's previous streaming comedy where she got at least two undeserved Emmy nominations (in my opinion). I much prefer her work as Margo where she is naked just as often but just as funny and takes even less shit.

Elle's Margo makes every kind of mistake imaginable by the time the Pilot is over and by the end of the second episode it seems likes she's hit rock bottom. And as is often the case when you hit rock bottom, that's when you start posing on OnlyFans rating dicks by comparing them to Pokémon and then meeting up with other OnlyFans workers to create a wrestling persona that's a space alien. You know, the average life for a David E. Kelley heroine.

Having just completing the entire first season I found Fanning's work a joy from beginning to end. It wasn't just that he was hysterically funny all the way through, it was that no matter how absurd her life got (and I've barely touched on it) Fanning always made Margo relatable. She's the least glamorous of all the heroines of David E. Kelley's TV in the 21^st century but she's also the most relatable and the most unfiltered. As with all Kelley series this eventually ended up in a legal battle involving custody of her child but for once it has less to due with long summations but simple humanity and in those moments Fanning was seen at her most genuine and pure. There was something relatable every step of the way – and yes this is a series where Season 1 ended with her dressed as a space alien about to sell pictures of her genitalia for the first time.

It's a pity that Fanning's debut happened to come out against the final season of Hacks where almost every great performance in this category is going to fall horribly (and let's face it, deservedly) short in the final nominee.  But I'm glad a second season has been greenlit. Even if it is a step down anything that gives Fanning's another shot as the Hungry Ghost is fine by me. As it is, she more than deserves the nod for her work here.

 

Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building

It's only because of the ludicrous amount of talent in this category that Gomez to this point in her tenure on Only Murders has gotten just two nominations in this category. Last year she was snubbed for the second time when for reasons best known to the Emmys Uzo Aduba was chosen over her for The Residence.  Considering Aduba already has three Emmys and Gomez has none, that was too much for me – though I've no doubt Mabel would have taken it in stride and just seethed.

As we found out during the fifth season Mabel has always struggled under an inferiority complex along with all the darkness that surrounds her. As she told Charles and Oliver (while they were autopsying a murder victim on a kitchen table, of course) she'd managed to find her place in the building and was being happy – and then her former childhood friend 'THE' rented the penthouse at the Arconia, stealing her thunder. Mabel and Althea had been childhood friends and there was a misunderstanding and now Mabel's miserable. Add to this the fact that a robot's now the new doorman, some of her friends may be moving out, their podcast's ownership is now part of three members of the one percent and the Arconia is getting a horrible reputation in large part because of all the murders that are increasingly happening because of the podcast's existence, well, you can understand why Mabel might be gloomy.

Gomez has always been the biggest surprise of the comic spirit of Only Murders as well as its beating heart. She really is willing to ride or die with these senior citizens and the true bond that they've formed has been one of the great shows of TV during the last decade as well as the product of some of the greatest humor. I'm not saying Gomez should win this year but come on: give Bloody Mabel a nomination.

Carrie Preston, Elsbeth

Clearly Carrie Preston should have been competing in this category the whole time. Yes I know she won her previous Emmy for Best Guest Actress in a Drama but honestly Preston's basically been playing eccentric to the point of comically crazy characters her entire career.  And let's be honest her performance definitely is more comedic than anything Ayo Edebiri has ever done in The Bear. (Sorry but the truth hurts.)

I made that mistake, of course. I spent two seasons advocating for Elsbeth as a drama (to be fair so did many awards shows) but every time Elsbeth appears on the screen I smile. I can't help it. At this point Preston has one of the most expressive faces, combined with gestures, and various noises that she reduce us to hysterics without having to say a word. And when most of the time she keeps being unable to follow her own train of thought during a discussion with a suspect or a fellow cop or a random bystander or herself you find yourself laughing hysterically.  And the outfits! My God, the handbags and the hats! She's not Columbo, she's Mary Poppins!

And she's lovable! I mean, this is a hardened attorney whose investigating murders for the NYPD, dealing with some of the most cold-hearted, cold-blooded members of the one percent who are always committed the most horrible crimes. And she still seems to like them. I swear, most of the time she's actually disappointed she has to have them arrested. I mean, they are criminals and she is sworn to follow the law but by the time she's done she's usually developed more than a shred of sympathy for them. She just so empathetic.  I often felt sorry for the attorneys Elsbeth outsmarted on The Good Wife every time she guest starred; now when she locks up another wealthy criminal I feel so bad for her.  But she just keeps on with that optimism and you know New York is a better place because of it.

Now I admit Preston has an uphill battle to get a nomination in this category. I think it'll happen eventually but not this year. As I said, its pretty stacked and I really should have put in Kristen Bell or Lisa Kudrow ahead of her. But I couldn't put her in FYC. Preston is just too good at this and is just so much fun. She's a longshot, but honestly that's what Elsbeth always is.

 

Jean Smart, Hacks

You know when Helen Hunt and Julia-Louis Dreyfus were setting records for consecutive Emmys for Mad About You and Veep it always irritated me how they won year after year. So you'd think seeing Jean Smart go four for four would have that same effect or at the very least I'd be something of a hypocrite when I push her for Best Actress every year. And maybe I am. But the thing is Deb Vance is too and she knows it.

Watching Jean Smart play Deb Vance has been one of the great viewing experiences in my lifetime as a critic and a fan and I don't think I'm alone in thinking that. It has been an epic journey with Deb and everyone in her circle and entourage. Even when she can be unbearable – and she has had horrible moments – you're still rooting for her in a way I just couldn't for the Selina Meyers or all the brilliant women on Showtime dramedies over that same period. The reason is Deb has been through it in a way that the overwhelming majority of us – and certainly not the kind of women Ava was when we first met her – can never understand. The Deb Vance's of the world broke down barriers that today's women take for granted and in fact judge them for not doing enough. We've seen at every season how much being Deb Vance has cost Deborah – her relationship with her sister, a relationship with her daughter she's only now repairing and no real friends in the world until Ava came into her life. Most women couldn't have made it a day in Deb's heels.

In the final season we see Deb trying to figure out her legacy. Having been banned from the airwaves after taking a stand she makes a plan to sell out Madison Square Garden. We see the old Deb and the new Deb all at once, we see Deb with her fanbase and Deb trying to figure out old relationships. We see Deb looking back on her distant past – we finally see the sitcom she helped created in the 1970s – and we see her going on The Amazing Race with her daughter. We see her building her bond with Ava, which is now in gold – and in the series finale we see just how far the two have come.

A fifth Emmy is all but inevitable for Smart and it will put her in the pantheon of TV legends, including the late Mary Tyler Moore and Allison Janney. (I will explain why down the road.) As someone who has considered Smart one of the greatest actresses on TV during the 21^st century no more fitting record could be pure for Smart. And though Hacks may be finished I don't think Smart is.

 

FYC:

Malin Akerman, The Hunting Wives

Ok. First things first. Why Akerman and not her co-lead Brittany Snow? Well as you'll see I think its likely Snow is going to be nominated down the road for a different show so I'm going to focus my energy on the Hunting Wife who has less of a chance of being nominated.

But more to the point Akerman's work as Margo Banks was the real joy of watching this fun, sleeper sensation from last summer.  As I wrote in my original review Akerman was absolutely a joy to watch both in terms of pure sexual energy, comic fulfillment and some of the most wonderful lines I heard delivered in 2025. Sexual manipulation, secret lesbianism, gun toting, and public shaming have rarely been more fun then when Margo did them. (No she didn't manage all four in the same scene; you have to save something for Season 2.)

Akerman's odds are long but not impossible. She has been nominated by the Gotham TV Awards for Best Actress (admittedly in drama) and by the Astras in the Comedy category. It's an uphill climb to be sure but as we've seen more often then not on The Hunting Wives Akerman is very good at upward mobility.

 

Tomorrow I move on to Supporting Actor in a Comedy. More nominees but its not going to get any easier.

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmy Nominations, Week 1, Day 2: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy

 

All right. Now while I don't agree with how the Academy does this, according to submission guidelines there will only be five eligible spots. And to be very clear I'm not giving one of them to Jeremy Allan White.  So far this year neither have the SAG Awards, the Critics Choice Awards, the Astras or any other awards show but the Golden Globes. If White gets in – and he very well might – it will be due to that institutional laziness I discussed rather then the caliber of his performance.

For the remaining five I'm doing what I've done in recent years: mixing my personal preferences with what the various awards shows over the last six months have been willing to do, combined with the Emmys past history. I'm confident in four of my picks: the fifth is a wild card and as always I have an FYC up my sleeve. Here goes:

 

Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This

Until The Studio debuted last winter and Seth Rogen began (deservedly) to win everything not nailed down Adam Brody was the frontrunner for Best Actor in a Comedy  for his superbly gentle work as Noah 'the hot rabbi'.  While the buzz for Season 2 has been somewhat diminished it has not dropped for Brody who yet again was nominated for Best Actor by every critics group between here and the summer.

Brody remains a superb comic performer because, unlike so many of the wonderful talents in the cast, he mostly keeps plays his role with kindness and humility. He is a sane man in an insane family – two, if you throw in his girlfriends – and there's something refreshing about seeing a romantic male lead in a comedy who doesn't have the same baggage as so many we've seen over the last decade. Noah is good at his job, we can see that every time he's in the temple and when he says the right words and we know the pressure he's been under his whole life without he or anyone else having to tell us and its charming to see him going out of his way to be the good guy in most situations and mean it.  This doesn't mean there aren't wonderful comic moments – such as when he learns he's being replaced by another Rabbi Noah and that this Rabbi is as good as him – but it helps to see us root for him.

Brody is an outlier in this category as he's the only selection I've made whose performance isn't built more on self-humiliation then anyone else. That doesn't make him better than the other nominees – as you'll see they are superb at their jobs – but it does make him easy to root for in ways the others aren't.

 

Ethan Hawke, The Lowdown

The Lowdown doesn't easily fit in any category – it's equal parts drama, mystery, noir, farce and sermon – but there's one thing I know for sure: Hawke's performance as Lee Raebun, a self-proclaimed 'truth-storian' is absolutely a comic gem and its funnier than anything Carmy's done in four seasons on The Bear.

Lee is a legend in his own mind; to everyone else in his small town of Oklahoma, he's a joke and not a very funny one.  Even before the series begins its clear he has one innate gift: pissing people off and he almost seems to take pride in how good he is at it even as it isolates him from everyone else in town, including anyone who might be a friend and how it puts the people he loves – including his own daughter – in mortal danger. Lee would be a believer in making good trouble if you left the 'good'  out. We see him storm a funeral in such a horrible way Don Lemon would be embarrassed (the episode aired six months before events in Minneapolis by the way) and berate the family of the mourners.  The fact he hasn't been killed yet is something that seems astonishing to him – and yet never enough to get him to slow down or even take precautions. The fact that his conspiracy theories happen to be right doesn't make him any less of a prick.

Hawke, however, has a gift for making these character hysterical. He doesn't make Lee half as insane as he did as John Brown in his incredible work in The Good Lord Bird but it's a damn near thing. In both cases the righteousness of his cause just covers the ridiculous level of horrible behavior and collateral damage he does to those around him – and still by the end of the series (or in The Lowdown's case, the season) you find yourself wondering a hundred times: is this the hero we need or deserve?

Hawke has already been nominated for a Golden Globe and an Astra for his work in The Lowdown and he was more than worthy both times. Of course The Lowdown premiered way back in September but that's rarely been a disqualifier for a lot of the nominees in this category. (The Bear premiered its most recent season last June, for one.) Hawke is my longshot in this category but I think he's earned it. Besides they stiffed him for Good Lord Bird. They owe him.

 

Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building

Inexplicably Martin was left off the roster last season for his work as Charles Haden-Savage and it very well might happen again this year. But having seen the fifth season I always ask: what do the Emmys have against Brazos?

In Season 5 we saw Charles dealing with, well, basically the usual things. The murder of Lester the doorman and having to do an autopsy in his apartment – during which he had a conversation with the corpse. (He knows he's talking to himself, he's not that crazy.) He starting looking for love on the dating aps which went as well as you expected; he started taking testosterone, ditto; he ended up trying to grill a potential suspect at the equivalent of a Benihana and he ended up having sex with her in a van and losing his phone, and then he got catfished by one of the billionaire suspects who he thought was a potential date. You know, just another day at the Arconia.

As is always the case Martin continues to balance Charles with perfect dignity and utter humiliation often within the exact same line or gesture. He's always funny, charming and he wars his heart on his sleeve – not the best look for a sleuth or podcaster but its worked out just fine for five seasons. I don't know how much longer Only Murders has before it comes to an end but I do know Martin is talking more and more about retirement and we should appreciate both him and the show he's done more to realize than any of his colleagues. For the love of God give Brazos – I mean Steve Martin – an Emmy nod this year.

 

Jason Segel, Shrinking

Of all the people on this list Segel is almost certainly guaranteed a return: he's already been nominated for both previous seasons and the Emmys is consistent if nothing else.  The thing about Segel's work is, unlike with many of the actors in Shrinking, you can't imagine anyone but Segel playing Jimmy.  Which is odd because from the start its been the most un Jason Segel like role he's place.

Jimmy has always played characters who are the grownups in the relationship: we see in the movies and TV shows he's done. Part of the reason Shrinking works is because Jimmy is deeply traumatized and as a result he keeps makes horrible but completely understandable mistakes. He did it both professionally and personally throughout the first two seasons and while he kept saying he was moving forward with Jimmy it's always one step forward, two steps back. Throughout Season 3 he actually seemed to be breaking the cycle more often then not, and then he kept blundering with his relationship with his daughter.

Your heartbreaks for Jimmy far more than any of the other nominees in this group because, as is the case with almost every Bill Lawrence show, the characters are the most relatable. The horrors of life got in the way of nearly every major character on Shrinking but their little village kept dealing. Jimmy has been taking care of everyone, but who will take care of him? It's because Segel plays him with such humor and heart that this show flows the way it does.

 

Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building

Incredibly Martin Short is the only series regular on Only Murders who has been nominated every season. Less incredibly, he's also one of the only actors whose won an award or two: he's been given an Astra for Best Streaming Comedy in 2022 and a SAG-AFTRA award for Best Lead Actor in 2025. So the question is, will this finally be Marty's year to win at the Emmys?

Based purely on an acting level Short's work as Oliver was everything we're used out of four seasons and yet still more.  Adjusting to life as a newlywed this season Oliver came to realize just how much contempt everyone in the Arconia held him in, how much of a user he was.  But over the course of four seasons we've been seeing slow but steady character growth with him and it paid off the most. He has a woman who genuinely loves him, he has friends genuinely care about him and you can see he really wants to make a fresh start where he doesn't have all the baggage. And for the first time in the Flatbush episode we found out the backstory of Oliver Putnam, why he loves the theater and why he is who he is. Like everything else with the show it was done with heart, humor and was immediately undercut.

Then there's the fact Short might be the sentimental favorite, given the tragedies that have undercut much of his personal life in the last year. He's always been beloved by Hollywood and of the three leads he has the worst track record with the Emmys. He's the prohibitive favorite in what is a wide-open category and I don't think anyone, least of all me, would have a problem with that.

 

For Your Consideration

Zach Braff, Scrubs

I never learn. Twenty years have passed; I'm still tilting at windmills.

But things have changed. The Emmys now seem to have realized just how much of a genius Bill Lawrence has always been; we're more appreciative of Scrubs and the reboot was popular. So here goes. John Dorian has changed immensely in twenty years and I don't just mean that Turk can't carry him on his back any more. I mean he's learned just how broken the system and how little you can do to fix it, how messy relationships are even in the world of dating apps, how just because you get the girl in the end doesn't mean there's a happily ever after – and when your mentor finally needs you, it's because he might be dying. Of course not everything has changed – the custodial staff still hates him.

I know that Lawrence's shows will get more representation in this category: Jason Segel is a lock and Steve Carell has a better than even chance of being nominated for Rooster. But if I'm going to go with a favorite from a 2000s NBC workplace comedy, I'm going to dance with the one I went home with then. And that means JD over Michael Scott any day.

 

Tomorrow I will tell you who will lose to Jean Smart – I mean the nominees for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy. (Come on, that was never going to be a spoiler and I'm fine with it.)