My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmy Nominations, Week 2, Part 4: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama

 

Two realities. This category has room for seven nominees. Of the seven nominated actors from last year only one is still eligible and while he's a longshot I think he has a chance. Combined with the fact that so many of the series that dominated this category for the past decade – Succession and Better Call Saul among them – have ended their run there are by necessity going to be a lot of new faces here.

As with past years I'm going to limit myself to two nominees for each series for fairness sake.  So here are my picks in this category.

 

Patrick Ball, The Pitt

Of all of the cast members of The Pitt who were the biggest victims of the overkill for Severance and The White Lotus last year Patrick Ball's work as Dr. Langdon has to rank as the most obvious one. As the resident whose burnout eventually was revealed as an addiction to drugs and whose betrayal by far cut Robby the deepest in Season 1 Ball would have been considered a frontrunner any other year. That the Critics Choice Awards nominated him for Best Supporting Actor showed the impression he made.

In Season 2, back from a stint in rehab and on his first day back Ball demonstrated a completely different side from the hard-edged resident who tried to bully everybody and who made excuses for everything. He knows he has to prove himself and tries everything he can in order to make amends with those he's wronged, which is impossible with Robby who spends almost the entire shift not wanting to be in the same room with him. We see his growth in small ways (he shows he remembers about certain interns) and big (the way he apologizes to Dana, who lets it go) his character shows the biggest difference between the characters in two seasons. And most of all it gives hope by illustrating change and redemption is possible for those who are broken by trauma, a message that is powerful not only in the course of the series but the kind of story we need for TV in general.

Ball is an early frontrunner to win in this category that has no clear favorites for the first time in nearly a decade. And he is more than deserving of recognition for having been ignored by the Emmys last year.

Zack Galifinakis, The Audacity

Zack Galifinakis has been a secret weapon in Peak TV for much of the 21^st century, usually in underrated comedies such as Bored to Death or Baskets. The Audacity gives him an opportunity to slightly tweak his comic persona for darker, dramatic purposes and as the tech mogul Carl, slightly more mature than Duncan Park but it many ways just as ruthless it absolutely paid off.

Through much of the first season we actually think Carl is the adult in the story, someone who is trying to improve from all the stresses he's had, someone who wants to show growth and bring about good in the world, someone who has no room for the BS of Duncan and his colleagues. But all the time we know that he's just as much a child, making his lackeys fight each other in death matches with mouses, play acting as a soldier in false military campaigns and in his most crowning act of embarrassment, bringing home an actual veteran to participate in his war games and thinking he'll be impressed by his reenactment. When the VA figures shares his honest opinion Carl immediately reneges on his promises, feeling no remorse for how he treats him and his sympathy for the man's fate the definition of crocodile tears. In the final scene between him and Duncan, he tries to take an avuncular pose and continue to judge him but at the end of it we learn he's just as ruthless and uncaring as the man he's mocked for a full season.

Galifianakis has received some awards buzz for his work earning a Supporting Acting in a Drama nomination from the Gotham TV award in May and a similar nomination from the Astras earlier this month. He's a dark horse in this category but I think the odds are moving in his favor and I think he's worthy of recognition.

Shawn Hatosy, The Pitt

It was a surprise to some awards followers that Hatosy, deservedly last year's winner for Best Guest Actor in a Drama for his work as Jack Abbott, decided for Season 2 to be nominated as a supporting actor even though he appeared in the same number of episode he did last season: five. Though honestly it really makes sense because it was clear from the moment we met him, looking like he was going to jump in the Pilot, that Jack was the mirror image of Dr. Robby. And its clear in ten months' time Jack has managed to move forward and Robby is now the one in danger.

This isn't clear at first when he shows up when the ER 'goes analog' in the first real crisis of the shift. But it becomes vital by the time he returns for the night shift and Robby is still there, while his friend and biking buddy has just found out his cough is the sign of something much worse. Eventually Jack, who clearly knows Robby better than anyone else on the staff, puts together the pieces of what Robby's plans were when he left on sabbatical and what he was planning to do. And in the season finale he does what no one else the entire season has managed to do, he lays bare just how broken he is, how much he needs him and that he doesn't want him to go through with it. Part of their final exchange is that he's Robby emergency contact and that he doesn't want to have to ever show up for that critical call.

If Hatosy's manages to make Emmy history by winning two Emmys for playing the same character in two different categories it will be because of his incredible power in these scenes. And for an actor who has been working nearly as long as Wyle has and gotten less appreciation in far more undervalued series such as Southland and Animal Kingdom, I think all of us would be fine with that

Jack Lowden, Slow Horses

Lowden was nominated for his work as River Cartwright two years ago and honestly should have been nominated for Season 4 as well. By any measure his work in that season was the finest and most personal storyline his character has done to that point and he was robbed of a nomination.

By contrast Season Five of Slow Horses was typical Lowden: the man of action, always charging into to the fight, the only competent agent in Slough House who arguably should be back at MI-5 except he's realized something that perhaps only Lamb has: the management and the Dogs are so dipped in politics and following orders that he may in the only unit that can do good.  The bigger problem is that he has a sense of order and justice which four seasons in Lamb and the other horses have yet to fully dampen and in a weird way makes him perhaps the only good man in the entire British Secret Service. This will almost certainly get him killed and at the end of every season you're honestly astonished it hasn't yet.

That Lowden can hold his own with some of the greatest actors of all time – not just Oldman but Kristin Scott Thomas and Jonathan Pryce – is a credit to just how incredible he is; that he manages to earn recognition among a field that it is always crowded with veterans all the more so.  I suspect he'll be back in the field this season and if not, eventually he will. He's just too good to keep down.

 

James Marsden, Paradise

Marsden is the only nominee from last season who is eligible to compete this year. "But wait?" you're all saying. "Didn't he only appear in three episodes? And wasn't he not real there in any of them?" True but as we all learned from watching Dan Fogler, just because your character dies in the Pilot doesn't mean you don't get to keep showing up and keep doing impressive work.

Cal Bradford only appears in flashbacks and critically in the mind of Sinatra as she tries to adjust to the new paradigm that has unfolded after she was shot in the season finale last year. As Paradise faces challenges outside and within it is telling that most of the drama comes with the conversations between the two as Sinatra is clearly aware 'Cal' is clearly her subconscious, something that's she spent most of the last decade burying but now can't ignore. If Xavier is the living version of the post-apocalypse moral consciences Cal is the ephemeral one and Marsden continues to find incredible depths in them.

Despite his limited appearances Marsden was nominated for Best Supporting Actor by the Astras and as we’ve seen in previous a limited number of episodes hasn't constrained the Emmys from nominating – and even giving the grand prize – to actors whose role is limited.  As someone who thinks its taken too long for us to appreciate how great an actor Marsden is on TV, I think he should get all the nominations he can.

Tom Pelphrey, Task

Tom Pelphrey has been one of the most impressive forces in TV since his work as the doomed brother of Laura Linney in Ozark, which earned him an Emmy nomination for its final season. He's never been less than watchable whether in brilliant works like Love & Death or even questionable ones such as Outer Range. Now as Robbie Pendergrast, the unlikely robber in Task, he dominates the screen in a way he's rarely got a chance to before.

Robbie was a good man once, a husband, a father, a brother. When his brother was murdered – in large part because of an infidelity he tried to talk him out of – Robbie spends his time leading raids on the biker gang that killed him. And then when a job goes wrong and he's left with a load of fentanyl and the child of the bikers, he ends up dooming himself and all those around him. The irony is Robby is too much of a bad man to do the right thing and too much of a good man to be a decent criminal and as a result he ends up indirectly causing a huge amount of collateral damage to those he loves.

The climax of the series comes when Tom comes to his house and Robbie ends up taking him hostage. Tom thinks he's doomed no matter what and neither we nor him know that Robbie is locked on a fatal course. When he lets Tom go we later see in the penultimate episode that he's set himself up to sacrifice himself in a plan he thinks will save his family. His death was one of the most haunting in 2025, in large part because he seemed far closer to a good man then the antihero type we've witnessed.

Pelphrey is the current frontrunner in this category for his work as Robbie and I can think of few actors who deserve it more for few performances that are more worthy. I know Pelphrey's gone from Task but I also know he'll be back in a project just as worthy of him soon.

 

Jason Ritter, Matlock

I advocated for Ritter last year and the Emmys chose to ignore him – they were too focused on Severance and The White Lotus. I acknowledge that the field is yet again filled with big names who will almost certainly get in above him. It doesn't change the fact that he has been Matlock's secret weapon for two seasons.

In Season 1 Ritter's Julian really seemed to be a combination of nepo baby trying to earn the love of a man who would never give it to him and who we saw in the climax had done something horrible despite it. In Season 2 Julian spent the first half of it basically being tortured by Senior on one side and caught in the vise by Maddie and Olivia on the other, trying to work an angle, trying to find a way out. Then he learned about Maddie's secret and exploded as both women tried to win him over.

And then a stunning thing happened. Julian grew both a spine and a conscience. As the battle for Jacobson Moore played out and he realized just how much he'd been used by everyone around him, he kept trying to find a way out and then when everything fell apart he made the hardest decision of his life: to sacrifice his own freedom for the greater good. It fully redeemed his character in a way almost nothing else had and when the series ends up resetting it puts him a new place.

I've loved Ritter's work on a personal level ever since I first saw him in Joan of Arcadia and I think its criminal he has yet to earn an Emmy nomination. The Astras nominated him in this category for the second consecutive year; I'd argue it's past time he finally got recognized.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Peter Dinklage, Dexter: Resurrection

I confess to having my doubts that Dexter: Resurrection would succeed where New Blood had come up short. But it surpassed my wildest expectations and that was in large part due to one of the most astonishing guest casts the show's had. And Dinklage's work as Leon Prater, the one percent New York socialite who 'collects' serial killers was a big reason it did.

Dinklage has a long history of playing morally ambiguous characters to say the least but not even House Lannister could prepare you for his work as Prater, a man who has taken the greatest tragedy of his life and used it to try and understand serial killers, a man who is fascinating by the pathology of violence and allows people to killer for his pleasure and for money but who has never killed himself, a man who thinks that 'Dexter' is special and understands but doesn't realize the contempt he holds for him, a man who thinks his wealth and power isolate him from the consequences of everything he does – including when he kills Angel and rejoices in the feeling. Dinklage compared his character to Charles Manson, a man who inspires acolytes to kill for him but never gets his hands dirty himself. It was a fascinating look into darkness – and we actually cheered when Prater ended up on Dexter's table, begging for mercy.

I wouldn't mind if Michael C. Hall was nominated for his iconic role or for that matter much of the cast. But Dinklage, who was the only thing I could tolerate about Game of Thrones, deserves special recognition. The Emmys have been generous to the special guests in Dexter's world in the past. I think its time they did so again.

 

Tomorrow I wrap things up in Drama with my nominees for Supporting Actress. Expect the same as today though I do have a certain freedom that I didn't before.

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmy Nominations, Week 2, Part 3: Outstanding Lead Actress in A Drama

 

It's likely Zendaya will be present for the third – and thankfully, final – season of Euphoria. But considering just how unpopular that season was across the board with critics the odds of her winning her third Emmy in this category, which were low before the final season began, are next to non-existent.

It's like for the fifth consecutive year in this decade we will have a new winner in this category, if for no other reason that last year's winner Britt Lower is ineligible. Even with only five nominees this is arguably the strongest acting category in all of drama with great reasons for all five of my choices to emerge victorious even with two very clear favorites. So here we go.

 

Kathy Bates, Matlock

Going into last year's Emmys Kathy Bates was the odds-on favorite to win for her superb performance in the title role of this incredible reinvention of Matlock. That she didn't win had less to do with the quality of her work and more due to the fact she was the only nominee for her show.  Going into the second season all the reasons to vote for her this year are just as present and then some.

In Season 2 Maddy had to deal with a whole new set of chickens coming home to roost. Her identity had been outed, first to Olivia, who she spent the first half of the season rebuilding her friendship, then to Julian who finally learned the truth about Madeline right at the time his father had a stroke. Maddy also learned about the existence of Alvy's father, watched how he tried to rebuild his life after being addicted, saw him struggle then relapse and then learn he'd known about his grandson's existence for years but had never shown up. This caused Maddy to go into another spiral in which she spent several weeks talking to an AI version of her daughter in a different form of addiction.

All this time Maddy spent her career in her mission statement of bringing down Jacobson Moore and while she was doing she found something more important – her real self. A happier version, a good friend, a good family member, the kind of attorney and woman she was before her daughter overdosed, the best version of herself. The great joy of Season 2 wasn't watching Maddy triumph over Jacobson Moore but realize that she was a better person now and to see her build bonds as a septuagenarian was one of the great accomplishment in Bates's career.

I don't know what the odds are of Bates winning this year but I'd still love to see her up there. The category is just as formidable as last year but she's still everything I love about her.

Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age

I understand why Baranski chose to go from Supporting Actress to Lead for Season 3 of The Gilded Age – Agnes is as much a co-lead in the series as Carrie Coon's Russell. Personally I think Baranski would have had better odds had she stayed the course – she was nominated for Best Supporting Actress in Season 2 and indeed she was nominated in this category by the Astras last month.

And its not as though her performance was any less brilliant then it had been in the previous two seasons. As I've sent throughout my raves of the show every line out of Baranski's mouth is a gem, a pointed barb that always makes you laugh and always makes her the highlight of the action. And this season Agnes showed more growth then she had in the previous two: first when it came to her compassion for her secretary and making it clear how she didn't realize the difference between the worlds of white and colored women in society to her parents. She continued to adjust to her new station in life, no longer as the mistress of her own household and finding her own way forward. She showed how much she could find depths for those below her station and how it paid unexpected rewards. And we saw how much she cared for women's suffrage for all races and finding a place in New York society. Her journey was a contrast with Bertha Russell's and it showed her at a very better place in her life than across the street.

Baranski, if anything, is owed more recognition from the Emmys then the more likely nominee from this show Carrie Coon: she has been at the center of two brilliant dramas before The Gilded Age and received no Emmys for The Good Wife and no nominations for The Good Fight.  I'm not convinced Baranski can prevail in what is still going to be a formidable field of leads: there are both Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon from The Morning Show ahead of her and Ella Purnell could move in ahead even before we count the Zendaya of it all. But she deserves a seat at the table even, as we found out at the end of the season, if she's not at the head of it.

Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age

There was a time – not that long ago – when it seemed that Carrie Coon couldn't get an Emmy nomination if her life depended on it. Now she's likely to return to the Emmys as a nominee for the third consecutive year and for the second time for her second iconic role for an HBO classic.

In Season 3 we watched as Bertha Russell's rise in New York society for the first time clashed with her relationship with everyone she loved. She forced her daughter into a marriage with a duke for her own status, against the will of her husband and her children. This put a wall between her and George that she was never able to overcome and at the end of the season she had lost her husband. In addition her son Larry has turned against her and while her daughter might have power in her marriage now, it's unclear if she'll ever forgive her.

For the first time with Bertha we find ourselves asking the question: "For what shall it profit a woman if she gains the world and loses her entire soul?" Bertha has been doing this since the series began but with each season as she has climbed the ladder she has become less sympathetic. The main reason we've rooted for her is because she's a woman in a man's world but it doesn't change the fact that her actions are just as bad as those we've seen any man do any drama, particularly moving people as chess pieces to achieve her ends. Coon has been constantly watchable during this period but with each season our sympathy for her has been more tested and it has been one of the great performances in her already superb career.

Coon has already been nominated for the Critics Choice Award and the Astras and given the Emmys propensity for 'once you're in, you're in" she's certain to get her third consecutive nomination. Her odds of winning against this field are still remote – but she was the favorite to win for The White Lotus last year and she was upset. They do owe her.

 

Keri Russell, The Diplomat

It was a surprise – albeit a delightful one – when Keri Russell managed to win in this category at this years Actor's.  For someone whose been a fan of Russell for nearly thirty years across three classic dramas it's an award that she's long overdue.

Every decade it seems that Keri Russell manages to create an iconic character for the new decade: Felicity at the turn of the millennium, Elizabeth Jennings in the 2010s, and now Kate Wyler for the 2020s. If there's a common thread between these incredible characters it is how each time there's an incredible thorough professional determined to move forward no matter the cost to her as a woman and a personal life. And that's particularly true with Kate Wyler as she has come to realize that there is an international conspiracy at the highest levels of government, involving the Prime Minister, the now President of the United States and her husband, who's just become the Vice President a job she spent the first two seasons being groomed for even though she never wanted it. Now more frightened for her country then ever and increasingly being pulled between the Western alliances darker initiatives Russell keeps trying to get to the truth in a world that not only doesn't want it discovered but in fact might not survive if it came out, something Kate herself knows better than anyone. She spent Season 3 increasingly walking the corridors of power leading to a conspiracy that might bring down the Republic in ways Shonda Rhimes can only dream of. No one knows what will happen next, not even Kate herself.

Like her husband Matthew Rhys Russell has spent her career being ludicrously underrecognized for her work in extraordinary TV. It seems like the rest of the world has caught up with how good her husband is this year (see Best Limited Series). The question is whether Russell can get an Emmy herself.  The SAG Award showed its possible. Can it happen in a crowded field?

 

Rhea Seehorn, Plur1bus

It wasn't quite as big a travesty as to her colleagues in Better Call Saul but the fact that Rhea Seehorn only got two Emmy nominations and no awards for her work as Kim Wexler is worthy of a class action suit. In the leadup to the Emmys for this year it really seems like the world is trying to make up for it. It helps that Plur1bus looks like its just as much a masterpiece and that Seehorn is absolutely blowing everybody away.

Carol Sturka is nobody's idea of a heroine, least of all herself. She hates even the people who read her romance novels on a regular basis, she doesn't like anyone else and the only person she tolerates is her lover – who its clearly could barely stand her. Now aliens have invaded Earth and she is one of only twelve people so far who seems to have free will. This is bad enough, what's worse is that all of the hive mind seems only determined to make the world a better happier place – and that bothers her even more.  Now she finds that she has to be the savior of humanity – and she knows she's the worst person to do it.

Plur1bus is centered on Seehorn in a way that no series today – perhaps no drama in decades – has been centered around a single individual. She's the only familiar face in the first four episodes and there's only one other regular who shows up in as many episodes (we'll get to them). Seehorn has to play Carol not just as the only person who can figure out what the hell the hive mind is doing but she has to do it playing someone that even under the most horrible and horrendous of circumstances, the viewer still has trouble liking because she clearly can't even like herself that much. That Seehorn somehow manages to make you root for her every step of the way is a triumph to both her as an actress and to Gilligan and his writers for creating her.

Seehorn has won practically every acting award in sight leading up to the Emmys: the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards and even genre awards like the Saturn.  At the moment she ranks as the favorite to finally win her first Emmy for her work in Plur1bus. Those of you who've read my columns know just how badly I want her to win. And I hope like hell it happens.

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Kaitlin Olson, High Potential

It's taken long enough but the rest of the world is catching up with Kaitlin Olson. She's currently the frontrunner for Guest Actress in a Comedy for her astonishing work as DJ in Hacks for which she's been nominated three times before and where two other actresses have won previously. So I think it would be more than fitting if Olson was given a chance to double dip for his exceptional work in High Potential not just a great showcase for Olson but the biggest hit ABC and network TV have had in years.

Like such comic talents as Bob Odenkirk and Niecy Nash before here Olson has tweaked her comic persona just enough to make Morgan the cleaning woman whose intelligence has given her a gift that makes her the LAPD's greatest hidden asset. And in Season 2 Olson did more to make Morgan another in a long and thankfully growing list of positive female leads at the center of so many great network dramas, including Kathy Bates for Matlock. Morgan continues to do everything they ask of her and more, solve impossible crimes, try to be a good mother to her children, a good friend to so many of her colleagues, a good co-parent with her ex-husband and try to solve the mystery of what happened to her first husband who disappeared fifteen years ago and now seems to be at the center of a dark and frightening conspiracy that she is both drawn to and repelled by. There's never a moment watching Morgan that you never don't relate to her or don't like her, and in an era where intelligence and expertise are being undercut at every level there's something wonderful about a heroine who's way of thinking is an asset that is celebrated.

Olson was nominated for the second consecutive year for the Astras for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama along with every frontrunner I've listed above. There are other actresses who are more showy in splashier successes and others more likely to get the nomination. But I keep turning to Olson's work as Morgan as the kind of character TV needs right now. If ever there were such a thing as a lovable longshot its Olson and this show.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama. This one's going to be a tough one and I don't just mean based on how many nominees from The Pitt show up.

Decision 2026 Tracking the Justice Democrats, Part 2:The Justice Democrats Gained Two Members In New York Last Night - And It Had Nothing to Do With The Squad

 

 

When Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez managed to upset Dan Crowley in the 2018 primaries it appeared to be the symbol of the true power of the Justice Democrats.

What no one realized then or eight years later that Ocasio-Cortez is the success story of a movement that has, by any normal standard, been a complete failure. And the clearest way to illustrate this is to look at the movement's track record in New York State, particularly in the aftermath of yesterday's primaries.

In 2018 Ocasio Cortez was one of five Justice Democrats in the house and Cynthia Nixon  running for the governor's to try and primary incumbent Democrats. I've written about Nixon multiple times so let's deal with Congress.

Michael Devito ran in the 11^th district, Jeff Beals in the 18^th, Patrick Nelson in the 21^st and Ian Golden the 23^rd. Devito would get less then 20 percent of the vote, Beals and Golden each got around 13 percent and Nelson got little more then 9 percent. In the shadow of AOC's upset this was swept under the rug but in one of the bluest states in America it should have been a sign of how limited their appeal was.

The following year Jamaal Bowman managed to successfully defeat 16 term incumbent Eliot Engel in the New York 16^th District, mainly because he was endorsed by the Working Families Party. AOC endorsed him but its worth noting so did much of the progressive establishment as well as the New York Times. Bowman and Cori Bush were the only two new Justice Democrats to win election in the 2020 election; five other Justice Democrats would fail to advance in the House and Betsy Sweet lost her attempt to win the Maine Senate race.

On April 14th Rana Abdelhamid had announced she was going to tun for the New York 12^th district against incumbent Carol Maloney. During her campaign Abdelhamid criticized Maloney for wearing a burqa in a speech to illustrate the oppression of women in Afghanistan. According to Abdelhamid, oppression of Afghan women was 'an Islamophobic narrative meant to justify American wars."

However before the primary she withdrew after new boundary maps were drawn. In a statement she chose to argue that her district 'no longer includes my community' and were reminiscent of an ongoing legacy of non-inclusive gerrymandering. All of this strikes me as bluster for someone who had no interest of getting in a fight she knew she couldn't win, which is how the Justice Democrats picks its battles in the first place.

(On a side note in 2026 Abdelhamid attempted to run for Zohran Mamdani's former district after he became mayor. While she's a member of the DSA the organization chose to endorse the co-chair Diana Moreno. Abdehamid carried on running as a third party candidate. She got 17 percent of the vote to Moreno's 74 percent.)

Bowman was challenged in the 16^th after redistricting added Westchester county and the Bronx to his district. Bowman narrowly survived his challenge winning 54 percent to Vedat Gashi's 45 percent. This should have been a warning that the Justice Democrats had to be weary in New York. They ignored it.

Two years later as I spent much of 2024 writing Jamal Bowman became the first Justice Democrat to lose reelection when George Latimer overwhelmingly defeated him in his primary despite the efforts of Ocasio-Cortez and other Justice Democrats stumping for them. His defeat should have been the clearest sign of how little cache AOC and the Justice Democrats really had even among the faithful. While the Squad doesn't seem to have gotten the message Bowman did; he's not trying to win his old seat back this cycle.

AOC did endorse Mamdani for Mayor last year but I'm relatively sure it was symbolic. If the most prominent Democratic Socialist from New York City didn't endorse another Democratic Socialist from New York City it would be a public sign there wasn't much warmth in collectivism as they thought. More importantly it meant Mamdani's role in New York politics was going to be more important than AOC's – and going into the New York primaries they needed it.

Going into Tuesday's primary the Justice Democrats were attempting to run two new Democrats.  Claire Valdez, another Democratic Socialist who was elected to the 37^th district in 2025 would attempt to run for New York 7^th to succeed Nydia Velasquez. She would be challenging Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso and Queens Councilwoman Julie Won. In the 13^th Darializa Avila Chevalier would be running to challenge Adriano Espaillat, who has represented the district since 2017 and is the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

Valdez and her chief competitor Antonio Reynoso agreed on everything: abolishing ICE, taxing the rich, Medicare for All and the War in Gaza. And considering Reynoso had early on endorsed Mamdani for Mayone one would have thought he would pick his colleague. Instead he chose Valdez who was, like him a fellow Democratic socialist.

This led to them fighting over Trump. Reynoso attacked Mamdani for visiting the White House of a man they should, in his words, 'impeach for war crimes. Rather than deal with the attack Mamdani chose to make it about his efforts to free a Columbia Student. It became a war between Renyoso's Working Family Progressives and the Democratic Socialist wing. Reynoso's record was far better than Valdez: he was a Borough President who had pushed through the Right to Know act, worked for Unions and organized for labor. The only difference was Valdez had Mamdani's endorsement and turned out to be more than enough

Chevalier came under fire for deleted social media posts in which she bashed mainstream Democrats, questioned the view Israel had the right to exist and criticized Joe Biden leading up to the 2020 election.

Espaillat its worth noting is one of the most progressive members of Congress, who has introduced bills to abolish the Death Penalty. He is a strong advocated for affordable housing and economic development, immigrant rights and the dream act, voted against passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act. He has also supported the Israel Anti-Boycott Act and released a statement condemning Netanyahu's decision to deny Squad members Tlaib and Omar entry to Israel. The only thing he's done that's remotely pro-Israel was a vote to provide them with support following the October 7^th attacks.

Chevalier is one of the most prominent anti-Gaza protestors who has been one of Mamdani's lead organizers so it was clear that this race would be a test of his endorsement powers as well as the Justice Democrats reach. Espaillat thought that Mamdani had his word to back him. Instead Mamdani chose to elevate Chevalier who like him was as vehement a critic on Israel as him.

This infuriated Hakeem Jeffries and Latino leaders. Considering that Chevalier and Valdez refused to commit to back him for House leader he is justifiably afraid that their victories could be turned into cudgels by Republicans in swing districts.

"Every Democrat in a competitive race will have to answer for our most extreme voices," said Howard Wolfson. "And it will make the party as a whole seem extreme and out of touch.

The results do seem to have worked in the short term: Valdez won her primary overwhelmingly and Chevalier narrowly defeated Espaillat. But yet again it demonstrates the inability of far left candidates like Mamdani to take anything but the immediate view. Already there are signs this has done much to hurt Mamdani's reputation at a state level. Many of the people who supported him early such as Velasquez are infuriated by how Mamdani seems more interested in putting it early supporters who are unknown in politics that may hurt the party. One can't escape the fact that Mamdani seems determined to remake the Democratic Party in New York in his image – much as how the President did the same for Republicans who he felt were loyal to him. The result managed to get rid of many valuable legislators in Congress in favor of sycophants to him.

In Mamdani's case it seems the definition of pennywise gains in favor of pound foolish decisions state wide. While Chevalier and Valdez are certain to gain their seats there is an excellent chance leadership of the House may come down to four swing districts in New York; the 3^rd, 4^th, and 19^th held by Democrats Tom Suozzi, Laura Gillen and Josh Riley respectively and the New York 17^th which is held by Michael Lawler, a Republican. It's certain the RNC in New York will attempt to tie the three incumbent Democrats to Mamdani and his Democratic socialists all of whom won their districts by margins of anywhere from two to three percent. Gillen and Suozzi went out of their way not to endorse Mamdani in his mayoral campaign and his campaigning for them will only hurt them in purple Long Island.

Like everything else the democratic socialists have done during the last decade whatever minor gains they make in Congress seems more determined to move fast and break things rather then to govern. Mamdani may have sent 'a message' to the Democrats in Congress but it's not one that they wanted and it very well may end up helping the GOP in the immediate term and perhaps even more long-term. To be sure he will have allies in Congress going into the next session but that's meaningless unless the Democrats gain the majority next year and will likely do less for anybody until at least 2028 – by which point Mamdani will have to run for reelection on his record as Mayor. And electing two Justice Democrats to New York from Congress may help him in the short term but its going to make the national party – which still is inclined to keep him at arms' length knowing just how controversial he is anywhere that isn't New York City – even less inclined to like him for the next three years.

As for Velasquez and Dalia Chevalier while they may be new members of the Justice Democrats come to fall all this proves is that Mamdani is the kingmaker in New York rather than AOC. And since Mamdani is not a member of the Justice Democrats it will be seen far more as a victory for him rather then the Squad. And it lays bare yet again the weaknesses of the Justice Democrats at a national level: they can only win in the bluest districts in the bluest states and only with someone who has their vision in a city or a state level. It's far more likely when the next Congress is confirmed they will listen more to Mamdani's agenda then anything AOC says or does.

And this is clear because in addition to Justice Democrats Mamdani also endorsed Brad Lander. Lander has been a progressive activist who served as comptroller under the previous Mayor Eric Adams. He finished third in the Democratic primary and chose to cross endorse and campaign with Mamdani. While Lander has been active in the city council for more than a decade, particularly legislation involving worker's rights he actually left the Democratic Socialists after October 7^th, he was never at any time considered part of the Justice Democrats nor did he seek their endorsement during his campaign despite being aligned with them on a majority of issues. The fact that Lander won with Mamdani's endorsement but not the Justice Democrats shows that his endorsement means more than AOC's did in the state.

After the New York primary the Justice Democrats may have gained two new members but the press isn't going to see it that way.  It will be seen as a victory for Mamdani and the power he has as kingmaker in New York. But the Justice Democrats don't have anyone like him anywhere else in the country and are highly unlikely to have anyone to do the same for them in California or Michigan.

And while the media will have its attention here, the left will want to highlight it and the Republicans will want to label the victories in New York as symbolic of the new Democratic Party there were three other states that held primaries for Congress yesterday as well and the left, never mind the Justice Democrats, suffered resounding defeats.

Maryland, a state even more solidly Democratic then New York could ever hope to be, has proven so unfriendly to the Justice Democrats that they haven't fielded a candidate there since their initial run. In the race to replace Steny Hoyer, there were the same complaints of pro-Israel money that were considered anchors on New York Democrats. Chris Van Hollen, the major head of progressivism in the Senator chose not to endorsed and argued the seat was being bought. It did nothing to stop Adrian Boafo, Hoyer's preferred successor, from easily winning the primary in a crowded field. Furthermore the President of the Maryland Senate, who thwarted a redistricting attempt made by Governor Wes Moore was challenged for the first time in twelve years. He won easily as well.

In Utah after maps were redrawn to create a Democratic district Ben McAdams who managed to defeat Mia Love during the blue wave of 2018 but lost reelection the following cycle, easily won the Democratic nomination over a group of progressive challengers including Nate Blouin. As opposed to the centrist Democrat tact that McAdams took Blouin argued for a more progressive approach and had the endorsement of Justice Democrats Pramila Jayapal and Greg Casar. McAdams got nearly 60 percent of the vote, more than 40 percent more than Blouin.

And even in New York State Caitlin Conley managed to win the Democratic primary in the 17^th district against more progressive candidates such as Effie Philips-Staley whose campaign website said 'she dedicated her life to social justice and said this moment demands transformational change… not politics as usual that serves corporations and the ultra-rich. She finished a distant third with 15 percent of the vote, nearly 35 percent less than Conley did in what will be a highly competitive race against Mike Lawler for control of the House.

Looking back on Tuesday's results it could stand for the Justice Democrats in a microcosm. On what will likely be their biggest gains nationwide in 2026 the credit will nevertheless go to someone else and the blame will still land on them for whatever happens to the party nationwide.

 

 

 

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmy Nominations, Week 2, Part 2: OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA

 

 

It is all but a foregone conclusion who will be the winner in this category in 2026. Less so is who the other nominees will be. With Adam Scott, Pedro Pascal and Diego Luna all for various reasons ineligible for Best Actor there are at least two very clear vacancies among the five nominations allowed in this category.  Three are certain to be filled – deservedly – from the nominees from last year. Who will get the final two? Here are my picks.

 

Sterling K. Brown, Paradise

In Season 1 Xavier Collins was the one man in Paradise determined to get to the truth in what was thought to be the last safe place on Earth after 'The Day'. At the end of the season he flew out to see what was left to find his wife.

He spent most of Season 2 traveling the wreckage of America, first being rescued by one of the last survivors in Graceland (Shaleigh Woodley), then following her until she ended up dying in labor. Eventually he did find his wife and learned that things were not the same for her as they were for him. He ended up returning to the Bunker to rescue his family from a cataclysm within and invaders without. And by the season finale it became clear that he might be the salvation of mankind in a way that is not clear yet – but the fact its Xavier may be the clearly sign of hope.

Sterling K. Brown, along with Paradise showrunner Dan Fogler, created one of the most iconic characters of the last decade in Randall Pearson on This Is Us a role that won Brown his second Emmy. Now the two have created another iconic character on a show that seems destined to be another classic in television history. In the last decade Brown has become an Emmy regular across no less than five series in every category an actor can be nominated in and his presence is a sign of great television. Brown will win in this category for the final season but we all know he's going to be nominated for the second straight year and it has nothing to do with institutional laziness. He and this show are just that good.

 

Billy Magnussen, The Audacity

Despite the initially mixed reviews for The Audacity Billy Magnussen received near universal praise for his work as Duncan, the dysfunctional Silicon Valley mogul at the center of the action. I understand why almost from the moment I watched this episode.

So many of the best characters in TV dramas have had uncharted depths. Duncan is unique at being someone who is entirely surface, who isn't at smart as he believes, who time and again reads every single cue, no matter how subtly or heavily delivered completely wrong and who might not even have an original idea in his head. He spends the entire season using the tech of someone he doesn't even know, spying on everyone around him who he's certain is plotting against him (and only a few of them really are) is constantly outwitted by people who are far more clever then him and who have slightly more self-awareness and seems determined at every step of the way to do anything to be hated by his peers all to take the spotlight momentarily. By the end of the season his determination to be at the spotlight leads him to learn a horrible truth about his family and even then he's determined to keep moving forward, trying to outrun everything he is just to stay ahead.

Magnussen is hysterical portrayal every level of Duncan, someone who seems to love setting himself on fire if that means people are paying attention to him for a moment. At a certain level he knows everything he does will lead to destroy him down the road but all he cares about is momentary satisfaction and we know that's going to destroy him. He sets out to make Duncan unlikable at every level so its kind of shocking that by the season finale we feel some form of sympathy for him even as he continues to destroy everything around him.

Magnussen has received some pre-awards discussion most notably an Astra for Best Actor in a drama. With only four of the nominations in this category locked down for certain Magnussen could be the wild card in this race and I'm willing to gamble on him over some more likely contenders.

 

Gary Oldman, Slow Horses

Gary Oldman had nothing to prove when he took on the role of Jackson Lamb back in 2022. So he's spent five seasons playing one of the most beloved characters in TV history as well as one of the most iconic characters in literature. And he does both with the complete attitude of a man who absolutely gives no F's about anybody or anything, not his job at the worst place in Slough House or the agents who work under him. Not Diana Taverner who at the end of the season may be in the best position to take him down for good. Not the terrorists who are engaged in the biggest threat to London and the UK yet so far.  Not even about how much he stinks, his halitosis or how he breaks wind on a regular basis.

Jackson Lamb isn't an antihero or a hero or really anything the TV viewer like myself has gotten used to in thirty years. He's clearly smarter then he looks, clearly effective at his job, clearly an efficient agent and killer. But Oldman is superb because every line out of his mouth – his entire posture – is of a man who doesn't seem to care about anybody or anything. He seems to care about his own well-being but considering how every season he seems to sigh reluctantly and go: "I have to save these idiots"  - and by extension the country – you can't tell how much of this is an act. We know he's one of the legends at MI-5 and it may be a front but every time he says anything it seems designed to isolate everybody including himself. That's why we have so much fun watching Slow Horses in a way we really don't for so many other series.  Jackson Lamb's trench coat may be plot armor but he barely seems to care whether that gets messed up.

Someday I want Oldman to win for playing Jackson Lamb. Not just because he deserves it but because I want him to accept his as Jackson Lamb. Profanely, messily and like everything else with no reserve: "You tossers are lucky I was busy dying to receive this" would be a good start.

 

Mark Ruffalo, Task

Just as with Hannah Einbinder for Hacks Mark Ruffalo's work as an actor is where I continue to separate the artist from the art. I find him even more pedantic and self-aggrandizing as a proselytizer for various causes but he remains one of our greater actors and that is particularly true for his work as Tom Brandis.

I signaled out Ruffalo's work as Tom as a step forward for leads in HBO dramas. Unlike basically every single lead of a drama since Tony Soprano, Tom Brandis is broken but fundamentally a good man. He has undergone horrible losses before the show even begins: his wife is dead at the hands of his son, his family is shattered, he drinks himself to sleep every night. Worst of all, he's lost his faith in God which was central to who he was before he joined the FBI. He's the last man who should be leading a task force into a string of robberies in Philadelphia and he knows it – and that's before he realizes that his force has been compromised.

Every step of the way Ruffalo is extraordinary as Tom, someone who knows the words to the job he can do but barely can dance to it. He manages to keep moving forward trying to find out who is responsible for the abduction of a small child along with everything else. Eventually he finds himself at gunpoint with the man responsible and in a long scene in which he believes he is going to die he ends up sharing almost everything about himself. He survives but that leads to a confrontation on a bridge that leads to multiple deaths but nevertheless he keeps going. And through his persisted nature he manages to solve the crimes, find out who the leak – and perhaps most astonishingly find peace within himself. How many dramas have you watched where the protagonist is at a better place then he was emotionally then at the start of the season?

In another year Ruffalo would be the frontrunner in this category for his incredible work. But he's up against another complicated broken man trying to do go and he has little chance of prevailing. Still we will see him back in the ranks again and despite the complicated feelings I have to the performer, I'm overjoyed to see that he hasn't lost a step as an actor.

 

Noah Wyle, The Pitt

The first sign we know that Dr. Robby isn't in good shape is when he rides to his job on a motorcycle and isn't wearing a helmet. It's the day before he goes on sabbatical and he is not in a good mood.  It's ten months since we first met him and while everyone is clearly dealing with their own shit, Robby is clearly not dealing with it at all.

In each case he seems a little more short-tempered with every attending, nurse and even some of the people replacing him. He refuses to even talk with Dr. Langdon, back from his first day after ten months in rehab. He can't offer encouraging words to those who need it and as everyone starts to feel the baggage of the past several months catch up with them, he has nothing but increasing hostility towards all of them, demanding they suck it up. And all through the day there are more discouraging signs: we learn he's fired two of his previous therapists in six months. He seems about to break up with a woman he's been seeing for the last few months. He keeps calling his riding buddy to get himself checked out at the ER. And when he finally shows up it becomes clear the persistent cough he has is far worse than it looked.

Robby manages to function as the crises of each hour continue to build up and throughout the day he holds it together. It's only in the final hours that we learn the significance of his sabbatical and just what he may be planning. And in that final hour he engages in a conversation with the one man who knows what he's thinking of and who makes it very clear he doesn't want him to do it. I've never been more grateful to know that Wyle is coming back for a third season before the show concluded: by the time it ended, I think we were are all scared for him.

It's looking going in that Noah Wyle may become the first actor to win back-to-back Emmys since Bryan Cranston managed his three-peat between 2008-2010. As with Cranston I can think of no better actor to be honored considering there such a long period when it seemed Wyle couldn't buy an Emmy.  His work makes The Pitt one of the greatest shows on TV and I'm glad that Wyle is still doing the work that made viewers like me fall in love with him thirty years ago.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Ramon Rodriguez, Will Trent

Those of you who've read me know how strongly I feel about this show and the cast. It was just as good in Season 4 as its always been but at this point I've come to accept the cold reality of how the Emmys just seem unwilling to acknowledge it. That doesn't change the fact that for the fourth straight season Ramon Rodriguez was extraordinary in the title role – and then some.

At the start of the season he had to deal with the fact that not only was his biological father back in his life but that James Ulster was out of prison. When Ulster ended up dead Will spent the season struggling with his demons in a way he never had before. He began to wonder just how much of who he was had to do with Ulster in him and as the season progressed things only worsened: first when his Uncle was abducted by the psychotic daughter of Ulster, then as he spent the season trying to unravel the ring of who took her and then when it came to a head with the death of Amanda Wagner at her hands. By the end of the season Will was more broken then he'd ever been and Rodriguez showed that pain at every level. And then somehow, at the end of the season, Will found a way to come back for it when tragedy struck Angie. One doesn't know the future of Will and Angie's relationship or the series in general but we still feel better knowing Will is out there.

I know in my heart the Emmys isn't going to acknowledge the work Rodriguez does but it should and as long as the show's on the air I'm going to keep pushing for it and him.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama – and the Euphoria of it all.

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmy Nominations, Week 1, Part 1: Outstanding Drama Series

 

A little precursor. I feel no guilt in excluding the final season of Euphoria because it was such a huge disappointment to critics that the odds of it being nominated for Best Drama are next to non-existent. Some thing it will contend for acting awards but I can leave it out with a clear conscience. Besides as you'll see it's not like I'm excluding HBO from this year.

For my eight nominees for Best Drama I look through streaming, cable, and network television. With two of the major contenders from last year (Severance and The White Lotus) ineligible a lot of room will be available in the supporting acting categories and some new faces will almost certainly be seen across the board as well as some familiar ones. Here are my picks

 

The Diplomat (Netflix)

How do you deal with the fact the Vice President might have committed treason? Well if you're the writers of The Diplomat, you kill the acting President off and then make her President before Kate Wyler can tell him. Then you make that fact at the center of the third season. And as you'd expect you then basically blow up the Wyler marriage.

Keri Russell has been the consummate professional as she has learned of an international conspiracy involving the UK prime minister and the Vice President across two seasons. Now in the third season under the new administration (headed by the incredible Alison Janney) the show decides to blow up the premise guiding the first two seasons. Kate was supposedly being groomed to become the new vice president; now its Hal (Rufus Sewell, as inscrutable as ever) who ends up getting the job without having to try. That Kate never wanted the job in the first place is something she only admits to herself, that she has no intention of following her husband back to the states sets up another, darker scenario.

With Kate still in London, even more nefarious schemes are afoot. It quickly becomes clear her husband is just as capable of espionage as anyone else and rather then trying to deal with the rot, he's more than willing to get his hands dirty on the inside. By the end of the third season its just as clear that Kate may not just have to turn against her country, but her husband – and one wonders which will be the harder blow.

For a series that deals with dark matters The Diplomat can be surprisingly entertaining. It has always put itself closer as an heir to The West Wing and it keeps doubling down on this with each new addition. (The First Gentleman is Bradley Whitford, for one.) And it moves at a flowing pace, led by its incomparable star. Russell was as surprised as anyone when she won the prize for Best Female Actor in a Drama. Like the character she's played she's long overdue recognition as is the show she's a  part of.

 

The Gilded Age (HBO)

I was understandably over the moon when the second season of The Gilded Age was nominated for eight Emmys back in 2024. And by the time we reached the third season last summer the rest of the critical community and America at large seems to have realized, yes, this is one of the best shows on television.

We spent most of the third season watching the marriage between Bertha and George completely unravel as not just her husband but the entire Russell family realized how ruthless and determined the matriarch was to earn her place in New York society. By the end of the third season Bertha had managed this but had more or less lost her entire family; her daughter overseas, her husband leaving her, her son unwilling to accept just how monstrous his mother was.

Across the street a minor power play went off as Ada became the mistress of the Van Rijn household while Agnes spent the season struggling to find a place for her in New York. By the end of the season Agnes had accepted her role in it and a new accord had been struck. And as Marian and Larry spent the third season slowly dancing around each other before finding there own happiness the two households will soon be together more frequently – and one wonders to see who will come out on top.

The Gilded Age is one of the best series on any service because of the extraordinary writing and the way it looks at the past to find evidence of a better future. Increasingly we saw contemporary issues involving women's suffrage, the place of divorced women in society, accord between the races, the struggles between class and the poor and the way that violence can interject now matter how wealthy one's family is. But it is also one of the most delightful shows with some of the best dialogue I've heard with nary a four letter word issued.

There are quite a few other HBO series who I will mention here and some that I've not who might overcome it. But The Gilded Age remains divine, a demonstration of how HBO is still the gold standard for TV

 

Matlock (CBS)

I advocated for this series for Best Drama last year and was disappointed that the Emmys chose to give it just a single nomination.  But in its second season it was just as worthy of nominations as any of the dramas on this list and more than represents what network television is capable of.

During the second season Madeline Kingston spent the first half battling with Olivia for leverage over the startling revelation that Julian was responsible for hiding the documents that she spent all of last season searching for. After half a season the two finally came to the accommodation that they needed each other and more importantly that their friendship could survive it. Then Julian learned the truth about Maddy 'Matlock' deception and spend much of that period first in resistance, then willing to fight to bring the truth to light.

While looking at Jacobson Moore as it went through a time of transition the writers showed slowly the rot in the firm was deeper then Senior (Beau Bridges) and eventually reached the point where the whole firm was so deeply embedded it that there seemed no way out – until at the last moment Julian was willing to prove his selflessness. This led to a reset that will shake up the series in a way that I haven't seen done so well since the days of The Good Wife.

Matlock is superb in every way that counts: as a legal procedural that  is a case of the week, as a subtle serialized drama, as an exploration of the ties of family, as a way of showing how addiction gets in deep and leaves trauma long after those are dead, showing that the bond between married people doesn't go away after half a century and most endearingly to me, showing that the obstacles that divide generations is not overcome. In this Matlock is to drama what Hacks and Only Murders is to comedy.

Kathy Bates is certain to get her second consecutive Best Actress in a Drama nomination but there should be nominees for the supporting cast as well as the extensive guest cast. I concede that there are better shows that I'm excluding but there are few that are more complete and more entertaining and I'm fine with that.

 

Paradise (Hulu)

Paradise was one of the sleeper critical hits of 2025, deservedly nominated for Best Drama and three other acting Emmys. Set in a bunker after a cataclysmic event nearly wipes out humanity Dan Fogler used a murder mystery to tell a deep and fascinating saga about humanity after the apocalypse.

In the second season he expands the world beyond the bunker by showing us what Xavier (the incomparable Sterling K. Brown) found after he left in search of his wife who he learned at the end of the first season is still alive. He spent much of the second season exploring the world afterwards, checking for survivors in Graceland and finding a new path forward to return and bring the family together.

Inside the bunker things got worse. Sinatra (Julianne Nicholson) made it clear to the voices in her head that her plans had never been out of the bunker. Those around her began to wonder if she'd lost her mind, as the power struggle between her inner circle became even more deadly. They were confronted when the outside world came knocking, forcing a greater and harder struggle that led to reunions and in the season finale a complete destruction of everything that had been build – and a set up for the third and final season.

In his follow-up series to This is Us Dan Fogler has created another mind-bending, chronology jumping yet nevertheless soulful series one that shows him as one of the greatest writers in the last decade. I don't know what's coming for Season 3 but  as always I'm glad to be along for the ride.

 

The Pitt (HBO MAX)

Last year going into Emmy night everyone was sure that Severance would be the big winner. Instead the world was delighted to see The Pitt, which had been a critical and ratings sensation, walk away with five Emmys including Best Drama.

In its second season, taking place ten months after the first, we follow Dr. Robby (the incomparable Noah Wyle) on July 3^rd right before he's supposed to go on sabbatical. It's clear from the moment he shows up that Robby is not the same man he was ten months ago and that he hasn't dealt with the trauma that led him to the meltdown that he had in the midst of the mass casualty last year. Following him in real time in the extraordinary fifteen hour break down we watch what is, for the most part, another awful, no good, very bad day Robby and the staff at the Pitt.  And slowly the problems begin to double down,  a cyber attack hits the hospital, there's a collapse at the water slide, old patients begin to die; some familiar faces show up.

And yet its clear the biggest crises are going on within everyone. Dr. Langdon (Patrick Ball) is on his first shift from rehab and almost no one, least of all Robby, can look him in the eye. Mel's dealing with a deposition and it has her nervous. Dana's back for her first shift in months and she's a lot punchier than before. The staffers are dealing with crises that they consider horrible. And worst of all as the day progresses its clear Robby has no patience for the hospital or the staffers and the crap they're dealing with. This reveals itself in the final hours when one of Robby's riding buddies for the sabbatical shows up, is suffering from something worse then shortness of breath – and we finally learn where Robby's going and why the fact he rode into work without a helmet is the least troubling thing about him.

The Pitt goes into the fall campaign the odds-on favorite to repeat for Best Drama as well as to be the biggest winner on Emmy night in a few months. The only question is how many nominations it will get and how many awards it will win. I myself couldn't be happier that a show like The Pitt not only exists but has become the critical and audience darling of the masses. In a world where so much is uncertain and America is a mess – and the show has more than a few storylines that are a reflection of it – there's something wonderful about a drama that is not about bad people doing bad things but a bunch of professionals doing their best against overwhelming odds, day in, day out.  Where the bad behavior of the characters is not something we associate with a White Male Antihero but a broken man who doesn't know how to heal himself and a bunch of professionals and first responders we can relate to more than any show on television in decades. That is something to celebrate as much as the incredible caliber of the acting and writing.

 

Pluribus (Apple TV)

I've been waiting for Vince Gilligan to get his hooks into an alien invasion show for a quarter of a century.  Now in his first new series since the end of Better Call Saul he reunites with that show's breakout star Rhea Seehorn to create a series that is unlike any other.

Plur1bus almost overnight became one of the most critically and audience adored hit on TV: one of the best new shows of 2025. It deals with an alien invasion of Earth unlike any we've ever seen in recorded history: the alien takeover of the world is seen not as some monstrous horror but a hive mind who only seem here to care and love people – the few that haven't been taken over.  One of the few people left completely unaffected is Carol Sturka (Seehorn) a romance writer who even before the invasion happened was arguably the most unpleasant person on the planet, who only her lesbian companion loved – and who even she seemed unable to deal with at times. Carol's rage was toxic before; now its so powerful it can actually kill millions of the hive mind. And what's worse is that of the precious few survivors she's maybe the only one left who thinks that what's happening is horrible.

In keeping with all things Gilligan Pluribus unfolds with all the touches we're used to from him. Of course it mostly takes place in New Mexico but its also incredibly visual and less dependent on dialogue than almost any series he's done – and he's always been great with long sequences of those. Few scenes have carried more terror as in the Pilot when we see how the aliens first invade and how they manage their takeover, then see the horror of the apocalypse play out – and of course, there's an in-joke that only Gilligan could provide.

He is met by Rhea Seehorn, who is for much of the series eight episodes often the only face of the cast. Seehorn delivers one of the greatest performances of 2025, if not of the decade so far, as Carol. Carol is literally the last person on Earth you'd think of as the savior of humanity, she didn't even like it that much when things were normal. And even now she's the outlier the only person left who wants to bring the world back to the way it was – even though as the story makes very clear, it's almost a paradise. (The idea that you'd have to wipe out humanity to bring about peace on earth has been in Gilligan's head since he made his directorial debut on The X-Files a quarter of a century ago.) What's astonishing about Seehorn's work is that even she admits that she has very few good qualities and that she seems to be doing something no one alive wants – and yet you're still rooting for her to succeed.

Seehorn has already won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award for Best Actress in a Drama and is the heavy favorite to win the Emmy this year. (Admittedly there are some pretty good candidate against her in the show's above.) Plur1bus is as close as any series is to having the possibility to upset The Pitt for Best Drama and while I doubt that I don't pretend that this is show is any less a masterpiece

 

Slow Horses (Apple TV)

For the last two seasons Slow Horses has, like the agents at Slough House itself, the most underestimated performers at the Emmys. In 2024 it upset Shogun's record setting pace to win Best Dramatic Teleplay. Last year it interjected between Severance and The Pitt to win Best Director in a Drama. Now in its most action packed season yet Slough House finds itself dealing with an assassin responsible for a mass shooting, an act of sabotage and the fact that Lady Di has her eye on becoming First Desk and will gladly step over them to get there. When she finally achieves her goal, we'd be unsettled if we didn't know them that well.

Gary Oldman has become one of the great joys to watch as Jackson Lamb, who every year noisily interrupts his busy schedule of getting drunk and breaking wind to reluctantly save London from the most horrible terror attacks possible. Every line out of his mouth is an absolute joy to hear as you know that London's safety is based on a man who cares if people live or die but really doesn't trust the people who work for him to save it. This includes River Cartwright (Jack Lowden0 who always acts before he thinks, Roddy who isn't nearly as clever as he believes and an entire staff who could be efficient at their jobs if they weren't just complete wankers at everything else.

Slow Horses is one of the quiet joys of TV and streaming, a slow grower that has become a fan favorite as well as one of the best shows on any service. It's not as flashy as its co-nominees on Apple TV but it gets the job done, even when its hanging by its fingernails.

 

Task (HBO)

After four seasons of hemming and hawing about doing another season of Mare of Easttown Brad Inglesby decided to do something better. He returned to world of Philadelphia's law enforcement and criminal enterprises but with a completely different story and two different protagonists. And in Task he created the kind of series HBO hasn't had in decades: a show about the working class, cops and criminals and the despair of a failing city.

The first season centered on two characters. The first was Tom Brandis, played with haunting precision by Mark Ruffalo. A former priest turned FBI agent he's spent the last year not dealing with a family trauma of how his foster son killed his wife. He drinks himself to sleep each night, he can barely talk with his own foster daughter or his real one, he's never visited his son in prison. And in the midst of this he's assigned to lead a task force to investigate a series of robberies of a motorcycle gang.

On the other side is Robby, played by Tom Pelphrey. Robby's brother ended up getting murdered by that gang for reasons I won't go into yet and he's spent the last several months robbing stash houses. When a robbery goes wrong and a five year old is left alive Robby chooses to take the child with him instead of doing the easy thing. This sets forth a chain of events that will lead to the deaths of many on both sides of the law and eventually Robby himself though his is far from the last.

This is by far a more ambitious series than Mare was, more invested in things such as nature and spirituality then Inglesby tried to deal with before. But it's also one of the most optimistic series to come out of HBO in the nearly thirty years its been dealing in prestige drama. To be sure there are lots of broken people, bad criminals and law enforcement officials who are on the take. But its also about finding a way to break the cycle of trauma and violence in a way that I'm not used to from HBO dramas or even TV during this century in general. Tom's journey is one of trying to find a way to heal himself after a trauma as much as catching the criminals and we're overjoyed that somehow he's found a way out. When's the last time you felt that way?

Task was renewed for a second season and it will probably air some time in 2027.  The show itself has already been nominated for multiple best drama awards along with acting nominations for Ruffalo and Pelphrey. I don't know what the future is for HBO but as long as their shows like Task as part of it, I feel better about it.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

The Audacity (AMC)

I spent a lot of time reflecting on this choice. It was tempting to go with the fourth seasons of Dark Winds or Will Trent. But in the end I decided to go with one of the most promising newcomers so far in 2026.

The Audacity was maligned almost before it got off the ground. As one of the characters says: "Silicon Valley changed the world but so did the bubonic plague" and she could be speaking for the majority of people.  But despite that baggage this is one of the most engaging and original shows AMC has done in a years, a show about a group of emotionally stunted adults who are Masters of the Universe but can't socialize in a group setting and a psychiatrist who cares more about making money off them then she does helping them. It's surprising how entertaining this can be.

Billy Magnussen is a revelation as Duncan, a tech sensation who isn't nearly as smart as he thinks he is and everyone around him knows it, a man who knows he's hated by everybody but who seems determined to keep trying to prove it. Around him are a cast of characters, both grownup and teenagers and its both frightening and encouraging that the dysfunctional student body of a high school are for more self-aware of the world then their parents are. Every single one of the parents is more interested in appearances then actually doing things, they will all say good things but sell out their dreams for an IPO, who think that because they play as soldiers they know more than actual soldiers. It's a mess, but it’s a fun mess.

I could never get into HBO's Silicon Valley which looked at the same people and moguls with a satiric vibe. The Audacity takes itself just a bit more seriously and that's more than enough for me to recognize its quality. There have been signs that some awards show are taking it seriously – the Astras nominated it for Best Drama – so why shouldn't the Emmys show some audacity of their own?

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama. Relatively speaking I'm confident in my choices even with the limitations.