There's this belief among academics,
pundits and certain people on social media that because a state or region of
the country has been Democratic or Republican for the past twenty or thirty
years in Presidential politics or at a Congressional level that it will always
be that way. This is how many on the left have viewed the South in my lifetime
and its how many on the right have viewed New England. Consequently during this
period the opposing party have done little to do disturb the status quo.
But it's becoming clear in this election
cycle that the Democrats are going to make some real inroads in Dixie at a
Senate level and perhaps even a few governorships. And if the Republicans want
to move forward in a post-Trump America they'd do well to make similar efforts
in New England, which honestly has been far friendlier to them for longer.
This may seem difficult to believe
considering that New England not only has by far some of the most far-left
Senators and Congressman in the nation such as Elizabeth Warren and Bernie
Sanders but the Republican Party has no
representatives at all in New England and only one Senator Susan Collins who is
under immense fire for reelection this cycle and very well might not survive
it.
And yet over the same era that Donald Trump
has taken over much of the Republican Party New England has had Republican
Governors win multiple elections during that same period. Charlie Baker would
be elected governor of Massachusetts in 2014 and win reelection the same year
that Elizabeth Warren easily won reelection to the Senate. Bernie Sanders
became a hero to the left in 2016 the year that Phil Scott was elected governor
of Vermont and has twice won reelection in years that Bernie was running for the
Senate. (Vermont has two year terms for governor and Scott is heavily favored
to win his fifth term this cycle.) And this election cycle with the Democrats
looking increasingly like they may take the Senate Majority Democrats in New
Hampshire are sounding the alarm that they might lose a Senate seat they've
held for a while.
New Hampshire is by far more conservative
then its neighbors in New England and actually had a Republican win election to
the Senate as recently as 2010. Kelly Ayotte was the attorney general of New
Hampshire who resigned in 2009 to explore a run for the Senate. Despite never
having run for office she narrowly won the primary and the general election
with nearly 60 percent of the vote. In doing so she succeeded Judd Gregg,
another Republican who had served the people of New Hampshire for three terms.
Ayotte was running for reelection in 2016
against the incumbent Democratic governor Maggie Hassan. As early as February
Americans For Prosperity made it clear they would not support her because support for the Clean Power Act. When the
Access Hollywood tape came out in October of that year Ayotte made it clear
that as a mother and prosecutor she wouldn't vote for Trump and would write in
Mike Pence for President. This almost certainly cost her reelection as Maggie Hassan
would win election to the Senate by a little more than 1000 votes. In 2022
Hassan became the first Democrat to win reelection to that particular seat.
During that election Republican Chris
Sununu would be elected governor. The Sununu family is a significant name in
American politicians. John H. Sununu was once governor of New Hampshire from
1983 to 1989 and was George H.W. Bush's first White House Chief of Staff. John
Edward Sununu, his son, would represent New Hampshire in the House from 1997 to
2003 and then be elected to the Senate in 2002. 38 at the time he was the
youngest man elected to the Senate and he lost to Jeanne Shaheen for reelection
in 2008.
By the standards of 1990s and 2000s
politics John Sununu was one of the most conservative men in Congress, voting
to impeach Bill Clinton, opposing abortion, favoring the death penalty and
receiving a 100 percent rating from Citizens Against Government Waste. However
he had a streak of independence, choosing to join the Democrats in
filibustering the PATRIOT ACT and W's energy bill and voting against a
constitutional Amendment to ban gay marriage and restrictions of trade with
Cuba. He was always more of a fiscal conservative then a social one while in
Congress. He was also the co-sponsor of the Clean Air Planning Act. And he was
always popular in New Hampshire: in 2008 he outperformed John McCain in New
Hampshire at a state level
Jeanne Shaheen has served in the Senate
ever since but in March of 2025 she announced that she would not seek
reelection, having just become the oldest woman in the Senate. By this point
Ayotte had won the governorship in New Hampshire after Chris Sununu chose not
to seek a fifth term. Both Vermont and New Hampshire were one of two Republican
governorships up for reelection in a state Biden had carried in 2020. While the
race was close by 2024 standard Ayotte
beat the Democratic candidate by nearly 9.3 percent and running over Trump by
40,000 votes. With Harris getting 418,000 votes and Ayotte getting 436,000 it's
clear that ticket-splitting is alive and well in New England.
New Hampshire Republicans had tried to
recruit Chris Sununu to run for Senate against Shaheen in 2020 and Maggie
Hassan in 2022. In 2026 they had better luck convincing his big brother to run
for his old seat after Shaheen stepped down. This was enough to send New
Hampshire Democrats to send up warning flares to the National Party.
With good reason. Ever since March Sununu
has been polling close to the Democratic candidate Chris Pappas, usually within
the margin of error and in some cases ahead of him by a slight margin.
Pappas has solid routes in New Hampshire,
having been elected to the New Hampshire House of Representatives right out of
College, serving two terms there before being elected treasurer of Hillsborough
Country before being defeated in 2010, being elected to the New Hampshire
Executive Council and serving three consecutive terms there. He had been
floated for Congress, the Senate and the governor ship and in 2018 he ran for
the 1st district in a crowded Democratic primary, then the general
in the Blue Wave of 2018. He was reelected three consecutive times (defeating
Karoline Leavitt in 2022).
As John Sununu was as a Republican Pappas
was ranked the most bipartisan Democrat in 2023. He was one of six democrats to
vote against the legalization of Cannabis at a federal level in 2020,
criticized Biden's plan to cancel student debt and in 2025 was one of 46 House
Democrats to vote for the Laken Riley Act. He's also in favor of Israel's right
to defend himself and while he is in favor or Palestinian self-determination,
he joined 22 of his fellow Democrats in favor of censuring prominent progressive
Rashida Tlaib in 2023.
So even though he would be keeping in with
the spirit of bipartisanship that marks both parties in New Hampshire he faced
a challenge from his left while running for the Democratic nomination from
Karishma Manzur who challenged Pappas for being two centrist while in Congress.
And as was the case with the overwhelming number of left-wing challengers in
the Democratic primaries Pappas easily defeated the challenger with 64 .6
percent of the vote to Manzur's 33.2,
By that point John Sununu was the heavy
favorite to try and win the seat he'd lost back in 2008. He faced a challenge
from Scott Brown, best known for defeating Martha Coakley in a 2010 election to
fill out the term of Ted Kennedy before losing to Elizabeth Warren when he ran
for election in his own right. Brown would later try to run against Jeanne
Shaheen in 2014. Brown narrowly lost to Shaheen in that election and served as
Ambassador to Samoa and New Zealand in Trump's first term.
Its telling that the Republican primary
voters, when given a choice between their more recent history and more distant
one, chose to go back to a pre-Trump era when they overwhelmingly chose John E.
Sununu. 154,000 voters cast their ballots in the Democratic primary and 110,000
in the Republican one but Pappas got 65.2 percent of the vote in the former and
Sununu received nearly 69 percent in the latter. Small wonder the Democrats are
concerned about how well Sununu will do in the general.
It might seem counterintuitive that in a
post-Trump America the GOP must go backwards rather then forward. But it's
really no different then the Democratic strategy in this election: in both
cases the parties must head towards the center. Sununu is far more experienced
at doing so then Pappas is (even though both have impressive records for
bipartisanship) but there's a good argument that Sununu is more in touch with
the electorate of his state then Pappas is. He will definitely be helped by the
fact that Ayotte is easily favored to win reelection as governor – though, as
I've noted, this is a state noting for ticket splitting.
New Hampshire, very much like the rest of
New England, has a longer history of being Republican then it ever has been
Democrat. It was in the GOP's camp ever since the Party was founded, didn't go
for FDR in his first term and barely did in his second. It only went Democrat
in 1960 because JFK was on the ballot and went right back to the Republicans in
1968. As recently as 2000 it went Republican for George W. Bush and there's an
argument that the only reason it went Democrat is because New Englander John Kerry
was running as a Democrat. Even then he only carried it by a little more then 1
percent. As recently as 2004 both its Senators were Republican. It wasn't until
2016 that it had two Democratic Senators for only the second time since the
Civil War.
The Republican governors of New England
have always had a greater independence from Trump in large part because they
are able to win in states he has been unable to do so in his three runs for the
White House. While the President has
done much to increase the margins of the vote for himself that has rarely
worked out as well for the candidates who have run with his endorsement and
while they have made some gains in swing states at a Senatorial level (most
notably in Pennsylvania) that obstacle is just as much in place the decade
after he became the voice of the party as it was before. While he was in power that wasn't an issue
for the Republicans. With him a lame duck, it's about to come back.
It may be impossible at this juncture to
see a Republican party where its candidates are becoming more centrist rather
then even further to the right. They may
be forced to do so after this midterms and the 2028 elections but that prospect
is uncertain at best. If however they can do so it will be in large part if
John Sununu can manage to win in New Hampshire.
As someone who has never once been associated with Trump at any time in
his political career and who seems to have no interest in being associated with
him as he attempts to rebuild it there's something very attractive about that
in a Republican right now.
Whether he would fit in a Senate that is
under Democratic control (as is increasingly likely even if he were to win)
will be hard to measure. But America needs centrists and bipartisanship far
more than it ever has and a man who was one of the models for it during his
original tenure in the Senate would be more than willing to show the way. Both
Pappas and Sununu would be invaluable in the Senate for next several years but
I think we need Republicans like Sununu far more and its why I'm more than
willing to endorse him to win this cycle. He was the right man for his era 24
years ago; he's just as right for it now.