Picks for This Years Emmys, Part 3: Best Limited Series

Now, the limited series, as well as a few others.

BEST LIMITED SERIES

I don't care what the ads say: Genius doesn't deserve to be here, no matter how great an actor Geoffrey Rush is, and its certainly no better than American Crime's final season. So let's consider the more likely winners.

The Night Of was an incredible experience, and had it not aired last July, it would certainly have more of a chance. Having seen Feud: Bette & Joan, it was a marvelous celebration of an era long since gone, and I really can't see what Olivia De Haviland found so objectionable about it. Still, the lawsuit may hurt its overall chances.

I personally thought Fargo was exceptional this season, and it more than deserves to win this year. But I think the most likely victor is going to be Big Little Lies. An incredible adaptation of a brilliant book, it featured some of the greatest performances of the year. This is an HBO victory I can get behind.

Should Win: Fargo

Will Win: Big Little Lies.

BEST ACTOR, TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

There's a real chance Benedict Cumberbatch could prevail for his turn in Sherlock, considering it might be his last chance. Robert DeNiro got his first Emmy nomination for The Wizard of Lies, and the Emmys loves the chance to honor great actors, but I think the odds are better, it will be someone from one of the mini-series.

Riz Ahmed, by far, had the more impressive performance in The Night Of, considering it mirrored his transition from innocent college student to cold-blooded drug addict. But I'm relatively certain that this years winner is going to be Ewan McGregor for his astounding dual turn as the Stussy brothers in Fargo. To create one dazzling character is remarkable; to create two different, but similar characters is even more astonishing. He's earned it.

Should Win/Will Win: McGregor.

BEST ACTRESS, TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

Oh, I really don't envy the Emmy judges there job in this category. Six of the best performances this years, including four Academy Award winning actresses, to choose between. This is arguably the toughest category of the entire night.

On one hand, Carrie Coon had an incredible year, and given how astonishing her body of work, particularly as the one force of good in Fargo deserves some recognition. Felicity Huffman has done astonishing work on American Crime for three years, and this is their last chance to honor her. Either win if the other four actresses cancel each other out, but the Emmys has rarely done that.

Of the entire group, my personal preference is just barely for Coon. But honestly, I think the most likely winner is Reese Witherspoon for her exceptional turn as super soccer mom Madeline on Big Little Lies. Both ribaldly funny and curiously moving, it was astonishing work. It would be nice if she won.

Should Win: Coon.

Will Win: Witherspoon (but no bad choices, honestly).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

Well, this category isn't as difficult as the last one, but it's close. All of the performers were of superb caliber, and an argument could be made for any of them. So I'm going to have to go with some personal choices.

Michael K. Williams has deserved an Emmy since The Wire, and considering that his performance in The Night of was at least as good as that would make for a good argument for honoring him. But the same timing problem that was difficult for Ahmed may hurt Williams. Tucci and Molina both gave great performances in Feud, but its hard to see one choosing one over the other.

Ultimately, I think the choice will come down to one of two psychopaths: Alexander Skarsgaard's slowly monstrous husband in Big Little Lies, or David Thewlis' wolf-like manipulator in Fargo. Both gave memorable performances of evil, but I think Thewlis' manipulations will be more persuasive.

Should Win: Williams

Will Win: Thewlis (but again, all good choices)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

Not quite as tough as the last category, but still harder to pierce. All of the actresses gave worthy performances, and it depends really on which Hollywood talent they choose to honor.

My personal preference is for Shailene Woodley for her incredible work as the trouble mother and rape victim in Big Little Lies. It was a towering work, and honestly, she's been laboring just long enough in Hollywood to deserve some kind of recognition.

But I think it likely that they will honor for the third consecutive year, Regina King for her work on American Crime. Normally, this is where I rage against the lack of originality of the Emmy voters, but in this case, I'll make an exception. After all, American Crime was no typical series, and Regina King was magnificent in giving three separate and remarkable characters life. This may be the last chance to honor her for awhile. I won't mind if any of the other actresses win, but I think this is King's to lose.

Should Win: Woodley.

Will Win: King.

As for the rest, Best TV Movie will almost certainly go to The Wizard of Lies. Best Sketch Comedy series is going to go to SNL in a walk. Best Variety Talk Series is going to come down to which Daily Show alum will prevail, and I can see Jon Oliver just beating out Samantha Bee, though honestly, both are good choices.

See you Sunday.