My Predictions For This Year's Golden Globes, Part 1

For the better part of the past decade, the Golden Globes have been among the more fascinating of the pre-Emmy award shows. For much of the first half they did a superb job of recognizing overlooked hits, spotting trends, and recognizing forgotten series. Hell, they’ve even gone so far as last year to give an honorary award for television, justifiably named for Carol Burnett, something I’ve been advocating for years for. My only real objection going in this year is that they’ve decided to let Ricky Gervais host for the fifth time. If ever there was a time to go hostless, its now – particularly considering the ceremony did so for much of the start of the new millennium. Oh well. I’ll wince through.

Here are my predictions for this years television awards.

BEST DRAMA

Again, I just want to thank the HFPA for showing the good sense not to nominate Game of Thrones thus forcing a coronation for a final season that even the biggest fans thought was a disappointment.

Much as I’d like to see Big Little Lies emerge triumphant, I think this may ultimately come to a showdown between The Crown and Succession, among the best series of the past year. I give the barest of edges to the former series, fully acknowledging the quality of all the other choices. Well, except The Morning Show.

Should Win: Big Little Lies.

Will Win: The Crown.

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

I really wish they’d give it to Rami Malek for his extraordinary performance in the final season of Mr. Robot. But rare is the occasion that the Globes looks backwards for recognition, so I think it unlikely he will prevail.

I think this comes down to a showdown between Brian Cox for his role as Logan Roy on Succession and Billy Porter for his work on Pose. Porter would seem to have an edge because of his triumph at the Emmys, but its never clear how closely the Globes will trend towards that. That said, I’m still going to give him the edge because it is an extraordinary performance.

Should Win: Malek.

Will Win: Porter.

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

I want to see Nicole Kidman triumph, and if the Globes were lazier, they might let her. But the Globes have been much more vigorous when it comes to sharing the wealth, and considering Kidman won for playing this role two years, they might be inclined to give it to someone else.

The smart money seems to be on Jennifer Aniston, not so much for her performance on The Morning Show, but for her return to television. Given the mixed reception to the series in general, I see it more likely to go to someone else. Considering that Olivia Colman was exceptional on The Crown and has had a great year on TV in general (she could’ve gotten nominated for Fleabag very easily), I think she will anointed yet again.

Should Win: Colman/Kidman.

Will Win: Colman.

BEST COMEDY OR MUSICAL SERIES

This is actually a tougher choice than Best Drama, considering the list. Kominsky Method won last year, Marvelous Mrs. Maisel the year before, and Barry and Fleabag were among the best shows of the year. Under other circumstances, I would give the award to Barry, which had some of the most remarkable moments in television all year.

But I’m pretty sure this is Fleabag’s to lose.  Given the immense amount of love it received at the Emmys,  its general favorability among critics, and the fact that Phoebe Waller-Bridge has been pretty emphatic that there will be no third season, I think the Globes will pick this in a heartbeat. All the other series will have other chances.

Should Win/Will Win: Fleabag.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY/MUSICAL

Given the scarcity of the competition, this may be even easier to predict than Best Comedy. Oh, Paul Rudd is a national icon, and Michael Douglas is always superb to watch.  But this year, it will definitely go to Bill Hader.

I complete retract everything I said last year. Hader’s work in the title role is an exceptional performance that mixes comedy, action, and drama very well. Hell, he should get a trophy just for ‘ronny/lily. And considering he’s won virtually every prize BUT the Golden Globe for his work here, I think they’ll rectify that Sunday.

Should Win/Will Win: Hader.

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY/MUSICAL

Under other circumstances, we’d be talking about the possibility of Rachel Brosnahan become the first actress to three-peat at the Golden Globes since Sarah Jessica Parker. Hell, we might be talking about Natasha Lyonne’s triumphant conquering of the medium. But this year, its pretty obvious who will be winning this year.

Just as it’s obvious that Fleabag will prevail for Best Comedy, it is equally clear that its  writer-producer-star shall triumph for her performance. Waller-Bridge is nearly as delightful to watch accept awards as it is to watch her perform. The Emmys more than proved that.  Considering that a series she helped create is nominated for Best Drama (Killing Eve, which in a lesser year might win) she’s already proved her versatility. She shouldn’t be so surprised when she wins this year.

Should Win/Will Win: Waller-Bridge.