Jason Bateman, Ozark: 9-2. For Playing: Marty Byrde, money launderer trying to keep his family alive in the fields of Missouri. Pro: Over the past decade, Bateman has more than shown his versatility in both comedy and drama (he’s also nominated for Guest Actor for his performance in The Outsider) and watching him go extremely against type, trying to outmaneuver a drug cartel, two criminal families and his own wife, shows just how capable he is. Ozark would not exist without him. Con: It was a huge surprise when Bateman triumphed as a Director last year, even for him. And people are starting to get a little tired of antiheroes. Bateman may end up suffering from fatigue.
Sterling K. Brown, This is Us: 13-2. For Playing: The increasingly put upon father and son Randall Pierson. Pro: Had more than his share of episodes which demonstrated he has lost none of his edge. Seeing him suffer a breakdown after a robbery, finally go to therapy, dealing with an alternate world where Jack survived the fire, and finally have a major split with Kevin over Rebecca’s treatment, Brown continues to demonstrate, he is one of television’s best actor. (And this wasn’t even his biggest show.) Con: The fact that This is Us wasn’t nominated for Best Drama shows that voters are starting to tire a little of the Pearson clan, and they may think Brown has been honored enough by the Emmys
Steve Carell, The Morning Show: 13-2. For playing: Mitch Kessler, the scandal ridden anchor at the title series. Pro: For those who have been watching his hit comedies and from The Office, Carell’s shift to a fallen icon trying to rebuild himself was a revelation. And for those who really thing it was a travesty that the Emmys never recognized him over seven years for Best Comedy, they may want to finally honor him here. Con: I think its fairly safe to say that Carell’s nomination (as a lead, no less) was one of the biggest shocks of a nomination process that shut out a lot of people. And considering that much of the attention was on the female leads, I don’t think there’s enough momentum to give Carell the win.
Brian Cox, Succession: 39-10. For Playing: Logan Roy, the still commanding patriarch at the head of a multimedia empire. Pro: Cox’s work was magnificent this season as he dealt with a scandal that threatened to bring down his empire, saw his marriage crash at his eightieth birthday, sacrificed the son (but not before a brutal dressing down) and actually seemed proud at his betrayal in the last minute. Cox is one of the greatest actors to ever appear onscreen, and his triumph at the Golden Globes would seem to ensure him a victory. Con: Just like the second season of the show, it may be possible that his son may take the prize out of his hands.
Billy Porter, Pose: 11-2. For Playing: Ballroom impresario (and HIV positive) Pray Tell. Pro: In my opinion, Porter’s second season of Pose was even better than his first, as he reached a level of rage that was not uncommon for HIV patients in the ‘80s (or now for that matter), dealt with problems in his stage family, and yet found a way to find love and move on. He’s the first actor in a long time that I wouldn’t mind seeing win twice in a row. Con: No actor since Bryan Cranston has won even two Emmys in a row in the past decade, and as brilliant as Porter is, the Emmys are more inclined to share the wealth these days.
Jeremy Strong, Succession: 4-1. For Playing: Kendall Roy, the son now trying to get back into his father’s good graces after plotting to unseat him in the first season. Pro: Watching Strong trying to get back into the good graces of a man who may have none was a fascinating balancing act, as he did everything to try and get his father’s favor, only in the final episode to be told he’ll be thrown to the wolves – and this his father never believed in him. So in the last five minutes, he pulled the ultimate betrayal – arguably the most shocking moments of the past year. Strong’s triumph at the Broadcast Critics indicates he is favored by some. Con: Two lead actors in a drama generally tends to cancel each other out, and it is very possible (and somewhat fitting) Cox and Strong may do that here.
Prediction: Baring a repeat by Porter, I give the barest of edges to Cox. He’s been due one of these since his stint in Deadwood. (Now remind me again why Bob Odenkirk wasn’t nominated?)
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