In early January I wrote a long article about the Screen Actors Guild Awards, specifically in regards to television. I expressed how much I generally enjoyed the ceremony often more than the actual awards, the reasons that I have never tried to pick the winners for them over the years and given my mixed reactions to the current crop of nominees. I ended my saying I was uncertain whether I would try to do end up picking my favorites like I do with practically every other awards show and that I’d make up my mind in February when the awards were imminent.
Well, the SAG awards are Sunday and maybe it’s because I’m still feeling deprived of not being able to choose my winners for the Golden Globes this year. But even considering all my doubts about the awards – and seriously SAG members, I really do think you should consider doing Supporting awards for all of the TV categories, you’re a relatively short ceremony even when you run long – I’ve decided to throw caution to the wind (and my disgust with some of the nominees) and try to guess what I think will end up winning.
Considering that the SAG Awards have in recent years stopped their early habits of picking the same actors and shows year after year and adding to that the fact that there is more variety to the choices this year, I think repetition will play less of a theme. That said this is the group that gave Alec Baldwin six consecutive Best Actors for 30 Rock so you can never be sure. There might be some repetition anyway, but that may be due more to quality than habit.
So here we go.
OUTSTANDING DRAMATIC ENSEMBLE
The easiest choice of the night. Barring a huge amount of momentum for Squid Game (which I can’t rule out; the SAG awards have been extremely friendly to Netflix the past decade) you go with the series with the most nominations. That series is Succession which has the benefit of never having been nominated at all by the Screen Actors Guild much less one. I don’t even really have a favorite for this category because…well, I need not repeat myself.
Should Win/Will Win: Succession
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Really at this point it’s a question of which actor from Succession ends up taking the grand prize. Supporting Actors do not traditionally do well in this category (the only one I remember is John Lithgow for The Crown) so I think this rules out Kieran Culkin. It comes down to Brian Cox or Jeremy Strong, and considering that Strong prevailed in the Golden Globes this January, I give him the narrowest of edges. (Now remind me again why Billy Porter wasn’t nominated)
Should Win: Cox/Strong.
Will Win: Strong.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Could Squid Game pull off an upset here? Considering that the majority of nominations have gone to the male cast members, I’m doubtful. Could Sarah Snook duplicate her triumph at the Golden Globes? It’s possible, but she is a Supporting Actress and really it’s been awhile since a Supporting Actress won here. (The last true Supporting win was for Maggie Smith in Downton Abbey back in 2014.) Snook did give a good performance, but I think they’ll go a little further back and give the Actor to Jennifer Aniston. (Now why aren’t MJ Rodriguez and Uzo Aduba nominated? As you can see the Drama categories leave a lot to be desired in my opinion.)
Should Win: Snook.
Will Win: Aniston.
OUTSTANDING COMEDIC ENSEMBLE
This is tougher than it looks. It is likely the prize will end up going to Ted Lasso, but Hacks did win the Golden Globe and I really think there’s a lot of forward momentum for Only Murders in the Building which has a cast full of actors that the Guild likes to honor. And this is the category where upsets can happen – two years ago even the cast of Marvelous Mrs. Maisel told everybody upon accepting that they’d all voted for Fleabag. I think Ted Lasso still has the edge, but don’t rule out Murders prevailing.
Should Win: Only Murders in the Building.
Will Win: Ted Lasso.
OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Even tougher to predict. Will the presence of Brett Goldstein divert votes away from Jason Sudeikis, who did win last year? Will voters split between Martin Short and Steve Martin, stopping either from winning? Could all this vote-splitting lead to Michael Douglas’ triumph? All I know is that all five of these nominees more than deserve to win. So on this occasion, I’m going to go with my heart and someone who deserves an award: Steve Martin. It’s likely, given the Golden Globes, that Sudeikis will triumph again, but I think both he – and Ted Lasso himself – would be fine with losing to this legend.
Should Win: Martin.
Will Win: Sudeikis (but there are no bad choices here.)
OUTSTANDING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Much as a part of me would love to see Hannah Waddingham or Sandra Oh win, I think we all know who this is going to. Jean Smart is on a tear for her incredible work in Hacks, and right now the question is will she become one of only four actors to win all four major awards for television? She’s already halfway there and I’m almost certain she’ll win at a show that celebrates acting. The Broadcast Critics – I’ll get back to you in two weeks.
Should Win/Will Win: Smart
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES
Much as I have a personal preference for Murray Bartlett (who is a dark horse for The White Lotus) and the fact that Evan Peters did win an Emmy for Mare of Easttown., I think right now the momentum is going to Michael Keaton for Dopesick. He won the Golden Globe in this category and more than that, considering his remarkable career and his recent comeback, he is due an award. (I’m still bitter he didn’t win for Birdman.) This is the right marriage of prize and actor, so I think he’ll win. As for Bartlett, that’s why there are Supporting categories.
Should Win: Bartlett.
Will Win: Keaton.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES
I will admit a preference for both Margaret Qualley, whose breakout role in Maid is the kind of performance awards show get and I loved Jennifer Coolidge for her incredible work in The White Lotus, I think it likely that Kate Winslet shall continue her streak for the title role in Mare of Easttown. Smart’s going to win for Hacks, Coolidge’s role, glorious as it is, is supporting and Qualley is probably going to be in the top contenders for next year’s Emmys.
Should Win: Qualley/Coolidge.
Will Win: Winslet.
As for Stunts, I haven’t seen most of the contenders. That said, given the amount of attention and praise given to it over the last few months, I expect this is the one award Squid Game has locked up.
I’ll be back Monday with my reactions to the winners. Regardless to how it turns out, I expect to have fun.
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