My Picks for This Years Emmys, Part 2: Best Actor in A Drama

In the 2010s, with the exception of Bryan Cranston, no actor has won in this category more than once, which makes this one of the harder categories to handicap. At the moment, the leading contenders are Richard Madden for Bodyguard (he won the Golden Globe) and Jason Bateman for Ozark (SAG for Best Lead Male). Madden’s buzz has been fading, and the Golden Globes can be more eclectic than the Broadcast Critics or SAGs. So who are the likely contenders?

Jason Bateman, Ozark

It’s not just the major change of pace for this actor known mainly for his comedic roles. As Marty Byrde, the desperate money launderer who flees to Missouri to save his family’s life, like Bryan Cranston, Bateman seems very good at channeling his dark, dramatic side. He has an ability to go to dark depths, and has a greater claim on our sympathies than Walter White did, as well as a similar gift for deception. Add to this one of the more remarkable careers in the history of the medium, and its hard to see how he can’t contend this year.

Sterling K. Brown, This is Us

There’s been more than enough said about Brown immense ability at channeling one of the really pure good and lovable family men in the history of television. And his campaign for councilman in his neighborhood reflected that. But in the series most heartbreaking arc so far – the strain on Randall and Beth’s marriage as their dreams finally started to conflict – Brown did something remarkable in his last few episodes. He made us start to doubt whether he’d ever been the righteous man we’d fallen in love with for two years. The fact that he managed to right himself in the final episode seemed earned, but it’s the more selfish Randall that may earn him the trophy this year.

Stephan James, Homecoming

For reasons which boggle the mind, while Roberts and other actors in the supporting cast are favorites to win nominations, Stephan James’ chances have been dropping. I can’t understand this for a minute. Victor Cruz isn’t just the impetus for all the action that propels everything in Homecoming. In his own way, he becomes the symbol for all that is going wrong with this program. As the tentacles of Homecoming lure Victor deeper and deeper into something bizarre, Victor becomes the only one we can reliably count on, the only one without an agenda. Roberts is the lead in the series, but James is the protagonist, and we need him. He deserves to be considered among the big guys in this category.

Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

I’m beginning to think this may be Odenkirk’s year. Jimmy basically spent all of this season without his law license, which leads him to more and more embrace his inner con man. With Chuck’s final words to him in his head, he has at last unmoored himself from the good parts that were so present in series’ early days. We feel a heartbreak watching Jimmy’s slide more than we ever did with Walter’s, because we’ve actually felt the loss. And in the final episodes as he cut his ties from the one woman who always believed him, it gutted the viewer emotionally. I think the odds are excellent that this will be the year the Emmys will finally call Saul.

Bill Pullman, The Sinner

I’m not certain, technically speaking, whether Pullman should be competing in this field or the limited series field. What I know for certain is that, either way, he has earned it. As the battered, beaten down Harry Ambrose who wearily returns to his home in upstate New York to deal with a child’s apparent murder of his parents, he was our steadfast guide into a world where nothing was as it seemed. As he realized just how horrible his home became, how a cult had undone, and how his oldest friend had betrayed them, his quiet, stoic portrayal was the one constant in a monstrous world. I realize the odds against him are high – you don’t usually win a nomination for underplaying a role. But Pullman has turned that into an art form his entire career, and this may be the best place to recognize him for it

Milo Ventimiglia, This is Us

Just as we saw Brown reveal the more selfish side of his nature this year, in the Vietnam flashbacks we learned of Jack’s relationship with his younger brother. From his enlistment to his catching up with to the ultimate torching of their relationship, we learned that Jack wasn’t nearly the superdad that we’ve spent the last two years believing he was. Admittedly, Ventimiglia has always been better at showing his dark side than Brown has in his other television work, but we’ve gotten so used to seeing him in a heroic light that it was a body blow to see him acting so cold in their final meeting. He’s earned his third consecutive nod, and I hope they’ll keep him in mind for the top prize.

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Paul Giamatti, Billions

I’ve advocated for him the last three years to almost no affect, so I’ve reduced his odds to a long shot. It is more likely the Emmys will recognize Madden or Billy Porter for Pose. But Giamatti has always been excellent as Chuck Rhoades, and watching him climb back to power – fermenting an alliance with Axe, going after the Attorney General – was great. But in the scene where he confessed to the world his true sexual tendencies – and then, found out later that he had permanently damaged his relationship with Wendy – was a moment that showed all side of Giamatti.  If he made a similar plea to voters, do you think the Emmy would finally recognize him?