Every year for the past decade, I
have done my level best to try and predict the winners for the Emmys. Partially
because it can be incredibly difficult to do so, I spend a lot of analysis
going for what the Academy should do
and what they will do, and most of
the time I’m wrong on both counts. So this year, I’m going to try something
different.
For the first twenty years of Entertainment Weekly’s existence, when
they tried to predict the Academy Award winners, they would lay betting odds. I
don’t knew who crunched the numbers, but they were a lot more accurate with
their predictions then they have been when they gave it up. Strangely enough,
they never tried it with the Emmys, and due to financial cutbacks, I doubt
they’ll start now.
Earlier this year, I located a
website called Gold Derby, which is basically an interactive website for people
to guess what shows and actors they think will win awards. I relied on them
rather heavily when it came to making my Emmy predictions that year. (A lot of
good that did me.) They’re now having a similar contest for the Emmys in
general.
So I’m going to combine the two. I
will list the nominees along with the current odds. For each nominee, I will
give reasons why they could win, and reasons against them winning. Then I’ll
make a level prediction: what I think should win, and what will. Don’t try this
at home, kids.
As always, I will start with the
Dramas.
BEST DRAMA
Better
Call Saul: 15-2.
The prequel to one of television’s
greatest shows officially became one of the greatest series in TV history in
its own right, as we saw the origins of the superlab, Mike’s first real test
for Gus Fring, and Jimmy McGill finally embrace his destiny. Pro:
With Game of Thrones finally
gone, this is officially the best show on TV, and unlike its prequel, it is really overdue for Emmy recognition. The
TV Critics Association gave its seal of approval says as much. Con: Same problem all the other series
have this year – its not Game of Thrones.
Bodyguard:
19-2
Netflix’s supercharged thrilled
about an MI6 operative trying to protect a politicians whose views he doesn’t
agree with. Pros: Was one of the
early favorites in Emmy voting, getting recognition from the Golden Globes and
the Critics Choice. Con: Most of the
buzz around the series has faded – Golden Globe winner Richard Madden wasn’t
even nominated for Best Actor – and its second tier Netflix at best.
Game
of Thrones: 4-1
What perhaps might be the last real
watercooler series – and certainly one of the most watched shows in history
came to a conclusion this year. Pro: It
received a record 32 nominations from the Academy, and everyone figures its due
for a coronation by the Emmys. Con: To
say that last season – never mind the last episode – was polarizing is the
understatement of the year. George R.R. Martin has now publicly stated that he
will have a different ending when he writes the final books. That’s not a good
sign as to the perception of how the series ended.
Killing
Eve: 11-2
The darkly comic series between a
reluctant spy hunter and a psychopathic assassin – both female, and both trying
to deny the rabid attraction between each other. Pro: This has been the real watercooler series of the last two
years, featuring two of the greatest acting performances in a very long time.
The Peabodys
were more than willing to honor it. Con:
Even the most rabid fans say the series dropped a notch this year. Maybe it
missed showrunner Phoebe Waller-Bridge. (Then again, she was justifiably busy.
See Comedies)
Ozark:
7-1
It’s not much of an understatement
to call this series Netflix’s Breaking
Bad. But this Missouri
set series has a dark and alluring soul of its own that really lures you in.
The dark saga of the Byrde family - caught between two warring Missouri families – is
enticing and fascinating. It’s one of Netflix’s gems. Con: As good as the series is, there’s a real possibility that it
and the cast would’ve been ignored had not Stranger
Things and The Crown postponed
their third seasons to avoid a Game of
Thrones showdown. Emmy voters may consider that.
Pose:
8-1
Ryan Murphy’s final collaboration
with FX takes a really dark look at an ignored community – the African American
gays and transgenders living in 1980s New
York . Pro: This
is one of the darkest and grittiest series the usually camp Murphy has ever
done for any source, and as a result, its one of his best work. The Peabodys agreed. Con: The Emmys don’t have a great
history honoring African American or gay
themed series. Is their tent big enough to hold both?
Succession:
9-1
HBO’s series about the backstabbing
Roy family, led
by an aging patriarch, trying to gain control of a multi-billion dollar media
empire. Pro: Darkly funny, and very
relevant, this was one of HBO’s sleeper hits, with some truly brilliant acting.
Con: This is a difficult series to
watch, and an even harder one to enjoy. Besides, if the Emmys are going to pick
an HBO series, we know which one it will be.
This
is Us: 9-1
NBC’s brilliant weepie about the
Pearson family, who find ways to make us laugh and wonder in the past, present
– and in the final shocking scene, the future. Pro: It’s a network show, it’s a hit show, and its cast and writers
can stand with any of the cable or streaming shows – witness ‘The Waiting
Room’. The SAG awards honored it for the second straight year. It’s kind of
due. Con: The Emmys seem to have
given up on awarding Best Dramas to network series.
PREDICTION: Better Call Saul clearly
deserves to win, and its cast and crew have really earned it. I still think it
has a chance for an upset, but otherwise, Emmys are coming for Westeros.
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