My Picks For This Year's Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actor and Actress, Drama

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alfie Allen, Game of Thrones: 13-2

For Playing: Threon Grevejoy. Pro: Managed to get through the Battle of Westerfall, and died a noble death – which is better than most. Con: Like a lot of actors in the final season, Allen submitted his own episode instead of the series, and it rewarded him with a nomination. That may, however, have to be enough of a triumph.

Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul: 6-1

For Playing: Mike Ehrmantraut, the steely eyed head of ‘security’ for Gus Fring. Pro: Every reason that applies to Odenkirk applies just as much for Banks, if not more. His work as the efficient, rationalist Mike has been one of the great accomplishments of the Breaking Bad-verse. But this season, as we saw him deal with the head of constructing the superlab, and find him forced to execute a man he who was almost purely innocent, featured another of his finest hours. Con: Banks always seems to get outshone by a brighter sun, and this year, sadly, seems just as likely.

Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Game of Thrones: 6-1

For Playing: Jamie Lannister. Pro: One of the greatest villains of a series that had many, Jamie’s chickens came home to roost in just about every possible way in the final season. And even after everything, his death gave the only sympathy we had for him. Con: He’s never had much luck in this category, and even though it would make sense to share the love a little, how often do the Emmys do that?

Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones :9:2

For Playing: Tyrion Lannister, the dwarf brother of the Lannister clan. Pro: Even for those of us who don’t like Game of Thrones, Dinklage has by far been the highlight of it. Honest about his depravities, he alone seemed willing to admit his failings near the ends, and was rewarded even though he didn’t want it anymore. Con: Eight nominations, three awards  -  I’m one of Dinklage’s biggest fans, but isn’t this enough?

Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul: 6-1

For Playing: Gus Fring, the ‘Chicken Man’ of New Mexico. Pro: Saul has always done a great job at giving origin stories, and we saw a lot of Gus’ in Season 4. His breaking ground on the superlab, his revenge on Hector Salmanaca were mixed with new material, as we saw how ruthless he could be even to those like Nacho, who had helped him. Plus his monologue at Hector’s bedside was his finest moment so far. Con: Much of Esposito’s best work was tied into Breaking Bad; will a single episode best encapsulate his skill?

Michael Kelly, House of Cards: 13-2s

For Playing: Doug Stamper, chief of staff at the Underwood White House. Pro: Even when this series was faltering, Kelly’s work playing the Underwoods most loyal soldier was some of the greatest television this series would produce. His final confession to Claire was a great moment. Con: All the problems Wright has, Kelly has as well. I think the nomination will have to serve.

Chris Sullivan, This is Us; 7-1

For Playing: Toby, Kate’s loyal husband. Pro: The funniest member of the group had his hardest season yet, going off his meds to help Kate have a baby, his wife ending up in the hospital prematurely, and his baby more than two months premature. Any of which would be high points for a season. Con: Sullivan’s nomination probably came as a shock even to the most loyal of fans, who no doubt expected Justin Hartley here. Like Moore, Sullivan will probably have to accept the nod.

PREDICTION: I really want Banks to win – he’s been owed a trophy since Wiseguy, but all signs point to the Hand tapping Dinklage one last time.\

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA

Gwendoline Christie, Game of Thrones: 6-1

For Playing: Brienne of Tarth. Pro: Unlike so many of the large, large cast of this series, she actually managed to make it all the way to the end, and was at the final council that chose who ascended to the Throne. Con: Like Allen, she submitted an episode to the Academy, and got a nomination as a result. Like Allen, I think the nomination will have to be enough.

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Julia Garner, Ozark: 39-10

For Playing: Ruth Langmore, the teenage head of the Langmore clan. Pro: The white trash, teenage appearance has fooled so many of the more devious criminals on this series, and Garner is cast against type in playing the helpless youth type she has mastered since her work in The Americans. Combine this with her super work in the unusually ignored Dirty John, and one can say this is her breakout year. Con: The same problem with anybody in Ozark: have enough people seen it to take her seriously?

Lena Headey, Game of Thrones: 5-1

For Playing: Cersei Lannister. Pro: One of the purest portrayals of pure evil, Cersei managed to be ‘The Woman we Love To Hate’, even at her lowest. Her ultimate refusal to yield finally came back to cause the final series of actions in the last episodes, and she sure as hell got a glorious death scene. Con: Game of Thrones has never done well in this category, and now that there are three other nominees, the vote is very likely to be split. With the exception of series like The West Wing, this works against actors in this category.

Fiona Shaw,  Killing Eve: 11-2

For Playing: Carolyn Martens, MI-6 head. Pro: The steely eyed head of the operations pursuing the twelve continues to be as enigmatic as ever, even as seems she might be the source for all the problems Eve and her like have been having. Throw in her nomination for her work on Fleabag, and you can see just how versatile she is. Con: Shaw is a great actress, but compared to the sterling leads in this series, will enough people have noticed her work?

Sophie Turner, Game of Thrones: 7-1

For Playing: Sansa Stark. Pro: The fact that the Starks managed to, after all the bloodthirstiness, end up getting most of the power was one of the few things that made the series sing. And that Sansa’s survival to the ‘Iron Throne’  managed to make more people happy than the rest. Con: Same problem as all the other actresses from Thrones – too many of them in this category. It worked against them last year.

Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones: 9-2

For Playing: Arya Stark. Pro: Arya’s evolution was one of the more remarkable in this entire series. Subject to some of the series most shocking level of abuse – much of which turned many fans away from the series – her final ascension to a warrior who became ‘The Hand’ is something that made most of the fans of this series who weren’t satisfied with the finale. Con: Williams has been here before. She’s 0 for 3 in this category, and though she deserves something for all the suffering her characters been through, I think she’ll drown in the Thrones nominees.

PREDICTION: Despite the fact that this might seem to be Games easiest triumph, I think Garner will prevail, due to division within the ranks. (Seriously, isn’t that just like the series?)

GUEST ACTOR AND ACTRESS

It’s always hard to figure out what the Emmys will do for Guest awards. I’d like to see the Guest Actor prize go to Michael McKean, not just for his impressive work as Chuck on Better Call Saul, but for a career of brilliant work. Bradley Whitford could make history by becoming the first actor to win Guest Actor for both a Drama and a Comedy. And This is Us has owned this category for the past two years. I’m going to give the barest of edges for McKean, because he should have gotten a Supporting nod, when his character was still alive. (Hell, he sang ABBA!

As for Guest Actress, Cherry Jones for The Handmaid’s Tale and Jessica Lange are early favorites in this category, but I have a hunch the Emmys will go old school, and vote for my favorite: Phylicia Racshad for her superb work as Susan’s mothers on This is Us. Her on-screen daughter should’ve at least gotten nominated her work (thanks for nothing, Game of Thrones), so I think she’ll win here.

Stay tuned for the comedies next week.