I Attempt To Predict This Year's Emmy Winners: Week 2, Day 2: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy

 

This is a minor and major complaint simultaneously. Why are there only five nominees in this category? If the HCA could find six actors worthy of nomination in Broadcast/Cable alone, why couldn’t they go up to six? It’s not that they’re weren’t a lot of worthy talents. Ted Danson, who won Best Actor in that category, wasn’t even nominated. It’s not that the nominees here aren’t all worthy (well, four of them are) but there’s always room for more. Anyway.

 

Anthony Anderson, black-ish: 9-2. For Playing: Andre ‘Dre’ Johnson, the African-American patriarch of a California family. Pro: When you consider Anderson’s performance as Dre (focusing just on this season) as he dealt with not being an essential worker in a pandemic, trying to realize he’s not the kind of protester he once was, the growth of his children and his bold decision to finally walk away from the firm he’s been a part of for the entire series, its remarkable. When you consider Anderson’s entire field of work on TV, not just on black-ish but also his mind-blowing dramatic work in the final seasons of Law and Order and Antwone Mitchell on The Shield, and then realize he hasn’t won a single Emmy for all that, it’s appalling. Anderson is one of the great performers in the era of Peak TV, more than anybody nominated in this category. He deserves something before the lights go out on black-ish. Con: This has never been an easy category for any actor. Anderson has had the misfortune of being in a network series roughly the same time some of the most game-changing comic performances have been given. His luck just doesn’t seem likely to change here.

 

Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method: 4-1. For Playing: Sandy Kominsky, the legendary acting coach. Pro: In any other year than this one, Douglas would be getting the Emmy. Hell, he should’ve gotten it at least once before. But after the final season, where he dealt with the loss of his best friend and agent, when he found himself dealing as executor to his estate (which led to comic joy) when he finally got his role of his lifetime at the same time he learned his ex-wife was dying, and especially after the incredible finale where he had a great loss, bracketed by two genuine joys  there is no way that Douglas didn’t earn the Emmy. And hell, the show ended with Sandy winning an Emmy – and giving a speech that all present and future Emmy winners should try to imitate. Really, art should imitate life. Con: In fairness to the Emmys, Douglas’ magnificent work has come at a time where giants in the Lead Comic Actor category walked: Bill Hader more than earned it in 2019, Eugene Levy deserved it in 2020, and its hard to think of Jason Sudeikis not being worthy of it. So just like the character he played so well for three glorious seasons, Douglas will not receive the love he deserved. (Douglas the actor, of course, has received more than his share, so I think he can take it.)

 

William H. Macy, Shameless: 9-2. For Playing: Frank Gallagher, the ne-er do well patriarch of a scrappy South Side family. Pro: It’s no secret I’ve always been one of Macy’s greatest admirers. And part of the reason its been hard to appreciate his work here is the fact that he plays a character who goes out of his way to stomp on any redeeming values he might have. Frank actually doubled down on in the final season, refusing to take Corona seriously (which ended up killing him before the alcohol-based dementia he was now suffering from would have) not appreciating anything his children did, and his final act, making sure he died in such a way that they won’t even know he’s dead. (Then again, considering their reaction after they thought he was dead, they probably wouldn’t care.) But that just goes to show what an incredible performance Macy has given for more than eleven years – creating a character that people could relate too even if they could never like him. This was a brilliant portrayal on a series the Emmys spent a decade ignoring and it does deserve something. Con: Part of the reason the Emmys never gave it any real love is because not even the show’s runners could decide whether it was a comedy or a drama. (It was submitted in the latter category the first four years it was on the air.) And even those series has proven to be not only Showtime but one cable biggest successes,  it examines the lives of people the TV world doesn’t give awards for. Add to this the fact that Macy is, if not directly responsible for the admission scandal that sent his wife to prison, had to at least have knowledge of it, and I’m not sure Macy will even show up Emmys night.

 

Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso: 3-1. For Playing: Ted Lasso, an American football coach brought to lead a struggling British football team. Pro: By now, we really don’t need to hear the arguments again, but I’ll make them anyway. The breakthrough character in this season was Ted Lasso, and considering that politicians on both sides of the aisle love this guy, that says a lot about how appealing the world finds him. So let’s do something that he wouldn’t and focus on Sudeikis’ performance: I never had much use for Sudeikis on anything he did, even when he was on SNL.  And I certainly never would have considered him the type of talent who could create a character capable of being so nice, he wins over his enemies. He’s charming, he’s flawed, and almost every line out of his a gem. He’s also a lot smarter than he appears on first look, which is another reason to love him. And I honestly think that has rubbed off on Sudeikis himself. As he walked through the awards gauntlet this year, every acceptance speech he gives he actually seems more self-effacing then the character he plays. I thought Sudeikis could be funny before; I never in my wildest dreams thought he could be lovable. My hope is that this year’s Emmys is live because the one thing Sudeikis hasn’t been able to do yet is take a trophy in front of his loving peers. Con: Just like with the show, there has been some backlash against Sudeikis and his character the past few weeks. I really don’t know what critics are out there who could hate Ted. Trust me, they aren’t in the Academy.

 

Kenan Thompson: Kenan:9-2. For Playing: Kenan, a recently widowed dad trying to raise his kid with his father-in-law. Pro: After more than twenty years of standing in the sidelines in every project (brilliantly, I might add) it’s fitting that Thompson, one of the great undervalued comic actors in history finally get acknowledged for playing the lead in something. Con: I have to tell you, this is the most conventional comedy series NBC released this year.  Much as I admire Thompson, after seeing a few minutes of his show I was thinking: “They overlooked Martin Freeman and Ted Danson for this?) I’m willing to admit the field for Lead Comic Actors was smaller than usual, but the HCA demonstrated there were better and more daring choices. Why on earth would you give a nomination to this mediocrity? It’s not like Thompson didn’t get a nomination he deserved (and actually has a better chance of winning.)

 

PREDICTION: Sorry Michael. Expect to see if Sudeikis can give a more modest and moving speech than you did in the final episode of The Kominsky Method.

 

 

I Try To Predict This Year's Emmy Winners: Week 2, Part 1: Outstanding Comedy Series

 

Just a little inside baseball. The Hollywood Critics Associations gave their first ever TV awards tonight. I don’t know if they’ll affect anything, but here are the Drama results that are relevant.

Best Actor and Actress in a Streaming Series went, as you’d expect, to Josh O’Connor and Emma Corrin for The Crown. However, Best Actor and Actress in a Drama Series, Broadcast or Cable went two actors who are gaining momentum: Billy Porter and MJ Rodriguez for Pose.  Will this change anything?

Michael K. Williams took the Best Supporting Actor Prize in a Broadcast Cable/Drama while Gillian Anderson continued her streak by taking Supporting Actress in a Streaming Drama. Since the winners in the opposing categories aren’t eligible, both performers more or less are cementing their position.

Neither Cable nor Broadcast winners are eligible. But the Streaming Winner was a shock, at least to me: The Mandalorian. Is the momentum for Best Drama going from 1980s England to a galaxy far, far away? Still can’t tell.

 

Now, on to the comedies. I will feed in any information from the HCA awards going forward, if I think it’s relevant (and it might be.)

 

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES

 

black-ish (ABC): 9-1. Pro: There aren’t a lot of great network comedy series any more, let alone that many which inspire so many fascinating spin-offs. Now as the Johnson clan goes into their final season, they found themselves dealing with all the problems of the pandemic world (Dre’s reaction to not being an essential worker was priceless) how you protest in this world, the growth of the family and Dre’s final decision to take his biggest risk. This has been one of the most hysterical and incredible series in the past decade, led by one of TV’s best casts. It deserves to be here. Con: The Emmys just haven’t been fair to this incredible comedy. It’s always had bad timing – falling behind Veep, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and last year’s a brilliant series around another legendary family. The odds aren’t just with them.

 

Cobra Kai (Netflix): 19-2. Pro: It’s kind of impressive how far a series that started out on YouTube as a mostly satirical one about the world that the heroes of The Karate Kid inhabited more than thirty years later has come. But like the movie that inspired it, there is a lot of power and joy to be found for those watch this inspirational series. There is a reason that the HCA was willing to give the people behind Cobra Kai a Legacy award yesterday. There is a world of devotion. Con: It was basically shutout in almost every other major category. Somehow I don’t think this series can sweep the leg.

 

Emily in Paris (Netflix): 10-1. Pro: Darren Star’s most recent series was one of the most watched shows on Netflix in its history. Early on, it had momentum from awards shows and fans and there’s clearly a base for it. Con: I think everybody on the Internet knows about all the other problems this show has had. The backlash from the fans, the bribery from the creators to the Golden Globes (and given what happened this year, we can’t rule that out as another reason for its new problems), I think the more obvious question is why did the Emmys nominate in the first place? Seriously, they nominated this over Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist and Superstore? The Emmys doesn’t like dealing with controversy, so why the hell did they give this show a nomination at all.

 

Hacks (HBO Max): 11-2. Pro: When I saw the pilot of Hacks on HBO in May, I couldn’t for the life of me figure out why someone would watch this show, much less consider it an Emmy contender. Three months later, I have never been more delighted to be proven wrong. Jean Smart’s incredible performance as Deborah Vance, a legendary standup, who is more of a relic than anything else, was golden pretty much from the start. But it takes a while to appreciate the genius of the entire cast, especially Hannah Einbinder as a Gen-Z comic who starts out as a pretentious whiner you want to strangle and ends up becoming fully dimensional and a worthy partner in crime to Smart. I said in my first review that writing shows about the process of comedy are nearly impossible to do well. Hacks makes it look easy by showing us just how hard it is. One of the best shows of the year. Con: The same problem that every other nominee in this category has: They’re not Ted Lasso. I actually think that starting with the next major awards cycle Hacks will do very well – the HCA gave a real sign of it. But it’s not going to happen this year.

 

Pen15 (Hulu): 17-2. Pro: Came to this series a little late, but I can clearly see why it was recognized by the Emmys this year. Under the sure hands of Maya Erskine and Anna Konkle (who honestly keep making me forget they’re not actual seventh-graders), we watched as the fictional Maya and Anna world kept getting even worse than your middle school memories were. The girls think they’re sluts, the boys think they’re disgusting.  Maya’s parents are divorcing. Anna’s brother hates her. Even their new bestie is clearly using them for seventh grade status (which is actually more pathetic than being hated). Is it any wonder they want to believe they can do magic? Not going to lie to you, the laughs in this series are painful. But it’s also very funny and real. Con: No acting nominations and its unlikely they’ll win their writing nod. Like the characters they play, it’s not Maya and Anna’s time yet. But trust me, it will come.

 

Ted Lasso (Apple TV): 39-10. Pro: Trying to make an argument why Ted Lasso the series shouldn’t win is much like trying to win an argument with Ted the man. You could do so, and knowing him you might even win, but why would you want to? When the series debuted last fall, it was seen as the kind of joy a world in lockdown needed. I would argue that it’s the kind of series Peak TV didn’t know it needed. After more than two decades of watching endlessly dark series populated by bad men doing bad things, here’s a show where the central character is about a good (but flawed) man who wants to make his world a better place, and gradually wins it over. And the fact that the title character is surrounded by some of the greatest supporting characters I’ve seen on a comedy in years and has some of the cleverest writing I’ve ever heard, makes this exactly what the entire viewing world needs. The series basically confirmed its win by taking the HCA prize for Streaming Comedy yesterday. Let’s face it, everybody wants Ted to win. Con: Especially since the second season premiered, there have been more than a few people saying the series has passed its peak. These people are obviously soulless aliens whose mission is to such the joy of life for Earthlings. Ted will win them over like he does everybody else.

 

The Flight Attendant (HBO MAX): 13-2. Pro: Arguably the most ambitious series here – you could also say it’s the least comedic. A dark and truly mesmerizing journey led by Kaley Cuoco – as you never thought you’d seen her – in the title role, where waking up after a drunken one-night stand with a dead body in her body bed is very quickly the least of her problems. You may have a harder time than Cuoco’s character figuring out exactly what happens that night and what’s going on all the time. (It doesn’t help that she was really traumatized before all this happened.) But there have been very few projects that swung for the fences so hard or connected as often. Con: Unlike the lion’s share of the nominees, this one peaked too early. Cuoco was the early favorite for the Emmys, she’s now unlikely to prevail and the rest of the series has fallen behind. Kind of a shame, but there’s always season 2.

 

The Kominsky Method: 8-1. Pro: Chuck Lorre’s story of Sandy Kominsky is one of the greatest projects that he – and frankly Netflix itself have ever done. What could have just as easily been the male equivalent of Grace & Frankie (not that would have been bad, mind you) has become a true jewel in the field of comedy period. Led by Michael Douglas’ in the title role – and knowing his body of work, I still say some of the greatest he’s ever done, anywhere – the series came to a far too soon conclusion with Sandy dealing with the loss of his closest friend, coming to détente with his aging ex-wife (Kathleen Turner, how we’ve missed you) finally getting the chance he never got and in the finale, realizing his greatest loss and his greatest joy. In a perfect world, The Kominsky Method would be taking home a shelf full of trophies. Con: But as Sandy knows too well, this world is not perfect. And a series that really is one of the funniest shows I’ve ever seen is likely too lose in its last chance to… well, one of the funniest shows I’ve ever seen. Also, Kominsky is bittersweet where Ted Lasso is basically just sweet, and that will probably count against it.

 

Prediction: The Academy’s going to be like the crowds at Richmond: They’ll be chanting out Ted.

This Time Three Cheers for The Hollywood Critics Association: Their First TV Awards Were Everything I Hoped for...and More

 

Last week, I spent an inordinate amount of space devoted to the Hollywood Critics Association first ever television awards. It was a lot of energy spent on an awards show I wasn’t even sure I’d be able to find online, much less watch. But thanks to a lot of patience with YouTube, I did in fact get to see all of these awards.

Considering all of the time and effort I expended on the nominations and what I hoped would win, I almost was prepared for an anticlimactic disappointment. But in what may be the first time for any awards show I have covered in my years as a critic, the HCA more than exceeded my expectations. It wasn’t just that I had a higher success rate with my predictions than I’ve had for practically every other awards show; it was because I cared so much about the nominees and winners that I really did feel their were no losers here.

I’m going to focus mostly on the winners than I am on the ceremony itself. However, given the fact that not only was this HCA’s first ever television awards, but that they had to at the last minute change from a live presentation to a virtual one, the entertainment value was surprisingly high. The presenters were mostly entertaining, they had a high level of enthusiasm that I appreciated, and a lot of the juried prizes led to some genuinely entertaining speeches, which I honestly figured would be more clichéd. I’ll get to some of them as I go.

I will start with Drama, which I practically spent the entire length of which applauded. The Streaming awards were pretty inevitable: Josh O’Connor, Emma Corrin, and Gillian Anderson all won for The Crown. Supporting Actor was a pleasant surprise: Rupert Grint ended up winning for his work in the Apple TV thriller Servant. This is the kind of series awards shows tend to overlook and I’m glad he won. I honestly would I like to have heard his speech. I wasn’t entirely happy that The Mandalorian ended up taking Best Streaming Drama (it actually seemed weird considering that it hadn’t won anything else) but you do expect there to be some quirks in any awards show.

As for Broadcast and Cable Dramas, the acting awards were very pleasing. As I expected, Billy Porter and MJ Rodriguez deservedly won for their wonderful performances in Pose.  I was pleased to see Michael K. Williams win the Best Supporting Actor prize for Lovecraft Country (and I loved his description of the award as if the Oscar and the Emmy had a baby. Pretty accurate.) And I was the over the moon to see the all-too-frequently ignored by the Emmys Tatiana Maslany take the prize for her wonderful work in Perry Mason.

And if I was applauding to the point of soreness with those awards, I almost shrieked when Best Cable Drama went to Cruel Summer.  Never in my wildest dreams did I think it had a chance. By giving this award to this incredible series, the HCA basically justified their entire creation of these awards. And considering that they lost Best Actress, I was overjoyed that Chiara Aurelia and Olivia Holt, those diamonds at the center of the show, gave the acceptance speech for the series. I didn’t think I could love them any more than I already did.

Was I disappointed when This is Us and Big Sky ended up losing to New Amsterdam for Best Broadcast Drama? A little. But considering the series as a whole received a special jury prize, I’m not really that upset. Shows like these do get lost in the awards shuffle and are part of the reason I think awards for Broadcast series should exist in the first place.

On to the Comedies. The Broadcast and Cable awards were as I expected, pretty much a tribute to Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist. The series took both female acting awards (I’d expected Levy to win; Mary Steenburgen was a welcome surprise) and received another jury award for being a beloved show. I wasn’t thrilled by this because it sort of acknowledged what I’ve known in my heart for weeks: the series is more or less dead. But at least, the HCA acknowledged just how loved this show was, which is more than the Emmys were willing to do.

Onward. I was overjoyed with Ted Danson’s win for Mr. Mayor. He earned it. Little less thrilled that Nico Santos won for Supporting Actor over Alex Newell, but to be fair Superstore’s been ignored by the awards show for even longer. I was a little disappointed with Young Rock ending up winning Best Broadcast Comedy over Mr. Mayor and Zoey, but maybe that just means I should watch it next season. Resident Alien’s triumph for Best Cable Series is actual a more pleasant surprise because this show will almost never get recognized by the Emmys. They might acknowledge Breeders someday.

As for streaming, fewer surprises there though one can hardly argue undeserving ones. As I’m sure everyone would expect Ted Lasso won for Best Comedy and Best Actor for Jason Sudeikis. Best Actress went, as I’d hoped to Jean Smart. The Supporting awards actually had more pleasing surprises. Brett Goldstein won for Ted Lasso and while I’d rather have seen Brendan Hunt or Jeremy Swift, Goldstein’s overjoyed, profanity laced speech was the highpoint of that part of the ceremony. He said the reason he wanted a live one was to talk with Ray Romano and said he would share this award with his fellow Ted Lasso nominees…but he’d hold on to it longer. (Seriously, look on YouTube. I can’t possibly do it justice.)

Furthermore, the HCA demonstrated that, like the Critics Choice, they will handle ties as they did with Best Supporting Actress in a Streaming Comedy – or as it turned out, Best Supporting Hannah. Hannah Waddingham, as I expected, triumphed for Ted Lasso and was jubilant (I think I heard her daughter screaming in joy.) As did Hannah Einbinder did for her sterling work on Hacks. (Like I said before, she really proved me wrong by the time the series ended.)

When it came to Anthology/Limited Series, I was expected their might be some disappointments or some clarity and there was some of each. Kathryn Hahn continued her path towards Best Supporting Actress for her sterling work in Wandavision. (And the fact that she clearly couldn’t understand how to do the technology for Zoom actually makes me love her more.) Anya Taylor-Joy seems to have the real edge in an increasingly cutthroat Best Actress category when she won for The Queen’s Gambit.

The male acting awards were a little disappointing. Evan Peters prevailed for Mare of Easttown, which isn’t terrible (he’s the only Supporting Actor nominee of this group that was recognized by the Emmys) but I honestly would’ve been happier if Bill Camp or even Jon Boyega had prevailed. Best Lead Actor was arguably this entire awards biggest disappointment. In my opinion, they gave it to the least qualified nominee. Hugh Grant or Paul Bettany would give clarity; Chris Rock or Bryan Cranston would’ve had fairness. Instead, they gave it to Colman Domingo for the Euphoria two-part special, something which barely qualified for the category. I’m honestly angrier here than I was when Zendaya took the Best Actress Emmy last year.

As for the two anthology series awards proper, little clarity has been given to the overall picture. Best Streaming Anthology et al went to Wandavision rather than The Queen’s Gambit, though it’s hard to argue against the former’s qualifications. And Best Broadcast/Cable Anthology et al went to Mare of Easttown, not a huge shock though again, still would’ve wanted Fargo to win. I’m not going to lie though; seeing Julianne Nicholson accept the prize for the cast and the crew was a powerful moment for me. I’d honestly would like to see her win for anything.

And now, a personal speech to the HCA. You heard a huge amount of thank-yous last night, but this may mean more. As someone who has based much of his life around the job you have chosen to do, that you’ve created an awards show for television is wonderful. That you nominated so many series that got swept under the rug by the Emmys makes you exceptional. And the fact that you gave the awards to so many deserving men and woman for some of the truly greatest TV this year, it makes me proud of my chosen profession in a way I rarely get a chance to be. And that you managed  such a great job on your very first try… I’m a great writer, but there are really no words.

You dignified everything you stand for with your first awards: Peak TV, criticism and the idea of awards themselves. I’m willing to be that very few people paid close attention to your inaugural show, but trust me I heard. And I know it will just be a matter of time before you go far beyond one on-line channel and the reach of a relative few. When the second awards happens – and God willing, you’ll be able to do in an actual auditorium with nominees there – no matter when or where it is, I’ll be watching.

I Try To Predict This Year's Emmy Winners: Week 1, Part 5: Outstanding Supporting Actress in A Drama

 

Not that I’m not glad there are eight nominated performers, but did you have to only choose from three series to get there? Leaving The Handmaid’s Tale aside, even I think one of the choices you made for The Crown was excessive. Did you just not see This is Us or Pose? All right, let’s get on with it.

Gillian Anderson, The Crown: 39-10. For Playing: Margaret Thatcher, the first female Prime Minister of Britain. Pro: Set ahead the makeup and the work on the accent.  Anderson’s performance completely outdid anything Meryl Streep did in her Oscar-winning portrayal. And we got a far clearer – and frankly, much darker look – at one of the most significant and controversial figures in history through Anderson’s incredible performance. Anderson inhabited Thatcher, there’s no other term and she was so formidable that every time, she and the Queen sat down; you knew Elizabeth was completely overmatched. Anderson already has a shelf full of awards for her portrayal of a fictional female icon – Dana Scully. She’s already got a shelf full of awards for playing Thatcher so far this year. What could possibly stop this Iron Lady? Con: Honestly, some of her competition from her show could be Anderson’s only obstacle.

Madeline Brewer, The Handmaid’s Tale: 17-2. For Playing: Janine, another member of the survivors. Pro: Say what you will about the excess nominees from this series, at least The Handmaid’s Tale gives them more to do than much of the male nominees. Journeying with Janine trying to escape Gilead, helping June acclimate in Chicago, even making a deal with the devil to try and save a Handmaid-in-training – there’s wrenching material here. Con: Like every other actress in the cast, you do sometimes wonder why this actress and not another? It’s like with Game of Thrones near the end, a lot of them seem arbitrary.

Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown: 7-1. For Playing: Princess Margaret, the Queen’s sister who is becoming increasingly lost in her world. Pro: Fact: Carter has been acting for nearly thirty five years – and has won nothing. Not an Oscar, not an Emmy, not a Golden Globe. This is, like so many of the other nominees in this category, her last chance to win for playing Margaret, one of the most tragic stories in the family.  Then consider her performance in ‘The Hereditary Principle’, where she realized she would never have love, never have the same share of influence and learned the story of insanity in her family – and the great betrayal of some of its members. Then consider the ending, where despite everything that her relationship to the crown has cost her, she refuses to abandon her position. The last images of that episode are among the most haunting of the entire series. Carter earned an Emmy for that. Con: She had a far better chance last year. Considering that Gillian Anderson has basically had a lock on the prize since February, it seems unlikely Carter’s losing streak will end here.

Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale: 13-2. For Playing: Lydia, an Aunt dealing with a Gilead – and a world - in revolt.  Pro: Unlike the lion’s share of nominations from this series, I get the logic here. Dowd has been one of the most dominant figures in this series and she’s had more reason for big moments than most of the nominees, reeling from the loss of 86 children, extracting vengeance on June, dealing with a new Handmaid going on a hunger strike. She’s a great actress and deserves the attention. Con: Same problem as every other nominee from The Handmaid’s Tale. Plus, I think the Emmys are rewarding her for the wrong post-apocalyptic show. Shouldn’t she have won for The Leftovers?

Aunjanue Ellis, Lovecraft Country: 17-2. For Playing: Hippolyta Freeman, the matriarch of the Freeman clan. Pro: Ellis gave a lot of memorable bits as the wife of George, the brave explorer of the family. But I’m relative certain that the reason Ellis is here, rather than say Wunmi Mosaku, who also gave an exceptional performance, comes down to a single episode: ‘I Am.” When Hippolyta went inside the machine that controlled the destinies of perhaps the world, she got to see the entire history of womankind and just about every possible outcome for a black woman in history.  Visually and thematically this episode was Lovecraft Country’s equivalent of last year’s Watchmen episode ‘This Extraordinary Being’, which swept last year’s Emmys. It was a masterwork and Ellis more than earned a nomination for it. Con: Honestly, in an alternate universe, Ellis would be the frontrunner for this award. But like everyone else tied to Lovecraft Country, she’s not going to have enough momentum.

Emerald Fennell, The Crown: 19-2. For Playing: Camilla Parker-Bowles, Charles’ mistress and true love. Pro: Fennell’s role this season was small, but every time we saw her, she made an impact. Even though she was utterly destroying the life of the most sympathetic character on the series, given everything we know it was hard not to feel sympathy for her. Over and over she tried to get Charles to let go of her. Even given what we know, Fennell’s portrayal made us sympathize more with her than him. Con: Fennell’s role, compared even to some of the other female performers eligible was smaller than a lot of good candidates.  I honestly believe the main reason Fennell is being recognized is less due to her acting then to a much bigger film earlier this year: Considering her scorching writing-directing debut A Promising Young Woman – which the Oscars completely shut out – maybe the Emmys felt they had to recognize her here?

Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale: 8-1. For playing: Serena, Captain Waterford’s wife, at the center of a struggle for power. Pro: In theory, I don’t have a problem with Strahovski’s nomination: she’s given great performances that she was ignored for in other series. And as the woman at the center of June quest for vengeance, there are great things here: dealing with the birth of ‘her’ child, trying to manipulate another Handmaid, her confrontation, court trial and ultimate battle with June. Hard to argue there weren’t big moments here. Con: If the Emmys wanted to give Strahovski a nomination for playing a clever, monstrous woman, they could have given her one – for Dexter. Honestly, she was more likable as a serial killer.

Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale: 15-2. For Playing: Moira, June’s ally in resistance. Pro: She’s a rebel and a pretty dark one and there were some strong moments – her first mission in the field, and getting caught in a war over the soul of one of her friends. Con: I don’t know if this counts for anything, but she’s already got an Emmy for this role. As good as Wiley is, I’m beginning to wonder what the rules are between guest actors and regular are on this show.

 

PREDICTION: Expect more than one person to be shouting: “NO! NO! NO!” if Anderson doesn’t win on Emmy night.

 

Be back Monday with predictions on Comedy – and a bit more.

Hooray For Hollywood...Critics Association: Conclusion: I Try to Pick The Winners For Limited Series, Anthology and...Hamilton

 

 

Before I start, I already have a reason to love the HCA’s nominations for Anthology Series, Special, and TV Movies. Yes, they acknowledged Hamilton, but unlike the Emmys they didn’t go overboard for it. Two acting nominations were more than sufficient. And that’s just the most obvious reason.

Onward to the awards.

 

BEST BROADCAST OR CABLE LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY OR TV MOVIE

Much as I would love to see Fargo or The Undoing prevail, I think it’ll likely come down to one of the Emmy nominees for HBO – I May Destroy You or Mare of Easttown. It’s still a tough call -  I May Destroy You is loved by the critics; Mare has more nominations. I think I’ll give the barest of edges to Mare.

Should Win: Fargo.

Will Win: Mare of Easttown/ I May Destroy You.

 

BEST STREAMING LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY OR TV MOVIE

This is actually trickier. I think Hamilton is basically out. There could be some residual love for Underground Railroad – a lot of people thought it was underrecognized by the Emmys. And Wandavision does have a lot of nominations. All that said, it’s still probably going to go to the one that has dominated the awards since February – The Queen’s Gambit.

Should Win/Will Win: The Queen’s Gambit

 

BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY OR TV MOVIE

This is actually a better group than the one he ended up getting from the Emmys. Part of me still really wants Chris Rock to win for Fargo. But I think it’ll come down to the Emmys choices: Hugh Grant vs. Paul Bettany. Since The Undoing has more love here, I’ll give the edge to Grant.

Should Win: Rock.

Will Win: Grant.

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY OR TV MOVIE

And we’re basically where we were for the Emmys.  It’s a three-way race between Michaela Coel, Anya Taylor-Joy, and Kate Winslet. Taylor-Joy has the acting awards going in, Winslet has the momentum and Coel actually has the bonus that she can’t win for writing or directing, so they might honor her for her acting (which was as good as Winslet or Taylor-Joy’s). Not an easy choice at all. The critics have recognized Coel and Taylor-Joy so far, so I’ll assume it’s one of them. I give the barest of edges to Taylor-Joy, and hope for a tie.

Should Win: Taylor-Joy/Coel.

Will Win: Taylor-Joy (but it’s a tough category)

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY OR TV MOVIE

This category is far better than the one we actually got from the Emmys. I’d like to see Bill Camp prevail, but I find it unlikely he will. Evan Peters has the momentum for the Emmys, but that’s mainly because most of the better choices weren’t there. I think the Critics will make the choice the Emmys almost certain would have if they hadn’t gone overboard for Hamilton, among utter flaws in this category – they will give Best Supporting Actor to Jon Boyega for Small Axe. He won a Golden Globe and a Critics Choice; I was sure it was inevitable whether I liked it or not. Now I think it’s the right thing.

Should Win: Camp.

Will Win: Boyega.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY OR TV MOVIE

First things first, Kat Demmings and Teyonah Paris deserved their nominations for Wandavision.

This is going to be tougher than the actual Emmys. I wanted to see either Jessie Buckley for Fargo or Marielle Heller for The Queen’s Gambit  win before, and both were robbed of nominations. Smart does have some momentum, and I really want to see Julianne Nicholson for Mare of Easttown win something. And Kathryn Hahn does still have something of an edge. You know, I really do think there might be a tie here.

Ok, in my hearts of hearts, I want Buckley to win. In my guts, it’ll be either Nicholson or Hahn. I pick Hahn, by an eyelash.

Should Win: Buckley/Nicholson.

Will Win: Hahn, but there are no bad choices in this category.

 

I honestly don’t know what’ll happen Sunday night. (I’m not even sure if I’ll be able to find the HCA on any service.) But whether my choices are proven right or proven wrong, I will be delighted by the results. Almost certainly more so than with the Emmys.

Be back on the Emmy predictions tomorrow. I’ll have a report on the awards Monday.

I Try to Predict This Year's Emmy Winners: Week 1, Part 4: Outstanding Supporting Actor in A Drama

 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA

How naïve of me that because Game of Thrones was gone we were done with frontloading Supporting Actors from a single series. How even more naïve of me to believe it would be something inferior as Season 4 of The Handmaid’s Tale. I don’t think it’ll make much of a difference when it comes to the actual winner, though.

 

Giancarlo Esposito, The Mandalorian: 13-2. For Playing: Moff Gideon, a hunter tracking down the title character. Pro: Well, you can’t say Esposito doesn’t stay busy. While waiting for Better Call Saul to return (the series he was nominated for last year) he was promoted to regular here and has a key role on The Boys another Emmy nominated show.  He’s one of the busiest actors out there, and it’s clear the Academy appreciates him. Con: As great as an actor as Esposito is, the world of Star Wars doesn’t exactly give you the greatest range of characters to play or a lot of room for ambiguity. Of the three series he’s a part of, this may be the biggest hit, but it also shows him off to the least advantage.

 

O-T Fagbenle, The Handmaid’s Tale: 17-2. For Playing: Luke Bankole, resistance fighter and June’s lover. Pro: Well, its good that there are some good men is this dystopian world. And there’s an argument that Luke could be as close to June’s real savior and hope in this horrid world they live in. He was more than willing to prove it time and again this season. Con: Seriously, did you just have to have a speaking part of Handmaid’s Tale to get an Emmy nomination this year? With all of the brilliant performances this year – and look at some of the candidates I mentioned in the HCA articles this week, it’s really difficult to argue Fagbenle’s qualifications.

 

John Lithgow, Perry Mason. 17-2. For Playing: E.B. Jonathan, the aging legend who gives Perry one more chance. Pro: Lithgow is one of the greatest actors in history, full stop. He’s certain one of the most versatile in television – he’s already won five Emmys. And it’s hard not to be in awe of his work in Perry Mason, playing a legend trying to prove the innocence of a client in a world he no longer recognizes, in a practice he can barely keep up. His final moments where he slowly ends his life was really a painful one in a season full of truly wretched deaths. Con: Lithgow’s role, compared to many of the actors in this category, was limited even by the standards of the series. (I would much rather have seen Shea Whigham nominated in his place.) And while the role was critical to the action, you could make a solid argument that he was actually kind of superfluous to everything that happened before or after.

 

Tobias Menzies, The Crown: 11-2. For Playing: An aging Prince Philip, consort to the Queen. Pro: In all honesty, Menzies best moments on as Philip were in the previous season. Like Colman herself, he was more in the background than the next generation. That doesn’t mean he didn’t have some truly great moments – in the season premiere after Mountbatten’s assassination when he tried to express his feeling to his son… and ending up sounding monstrous. And of course, there were the final moments of the season finale when he told Diana what he had learned being the Queen’s husband and that he knew the damage it had done to everybody in her orbit. Plus there might well be a sentimental movement – though I’m not sure an actor has ever won an award because the real life character he played passed away. Con: Like I said, the lion’s share of Menzies’ finest moments were in the previous season and he much of Season 4 looking more archaic with each episode. This is the one major acting category; I don’t think The Crown will win.

 

 

Max Minghella, The Handmaid’s Tale. 10-1. For Playing: Nick Blaine, a man on the inside trying to keep June safe. Pro: I….I’m sorry. I do my best to be impartial in these blurbs, but it’s even harder to justify the nominations of the actors for this show in this category than it was for Game of Thrones two years ago. I can make a good argument for most of the actresses in this category, but seriously three acting nominees? I’m willing to bet even Minghella would’ve put Joseph Fiennes before himself getting a nod. I couldn’t justify this when I criticized the nominations two months ago, and going through the motions is something I just can’t honestly do. If you can think of a reason why Minghella deserved to be nominated, much less win, email me. Because I just don’t have the heart.

 

Chris Sullivan, This Is Us: 19-2. For Playing: Toby, Kate’s constant husband during a hard time. Pro: Sullivan has always been one of this extraordinary series' secret weapons, always there with some of the more engaging performances. He had some superb moments in this season, having a conversation outside a hospital about being a real husband, dealing with not have a job and not being able to support his wife, making a major break with Kevin when he offered to help, and having a long conversation with his own father about his problems as a man. I think that’s why it broke my heart in the last minute to see Toby isn’t Kate’s husband in the future.  I hope theirs a good reason and he should get something. Con: Because Sullivan doesn’t have the flashy dramatic moments that so many of these actors have – his roles built on a lot of supporting moments – it doesn’t seem likely voters will choose him. And like I said, they don’t seem willing to acknowledge the series that much at all.

 

Bradley Whitford, The Handmaid’s Tale: 7-1. For Playing: Joseph Lawrence, the ‘architect’ of Gilead. Pro: Whitford is one of the greatest actors in television to work in the new millennium. And you can’t exactly argue that this role hasn’t given him room for versatility. As someone who was willing to help June fight against Gilead and then revealed that he had built it – and was still instrumental in its running – one can’t say he hasn’t reached new depths. Con: Like every other aspect of the series, Whitford is just playing a tired trope at this point. I imagine his betrayal came as a shock to no major critic and not even the show’s biggest fans. And seriously, Whitford has enough Emmys as it is.

 

Michael K. Williams, Lovecraft Country: 9-2. For Playing: Montrose Freeman, the troubled patriarch who learns of his family’s legacy. Pro: Omar Little. Chalky White. Leonard. These are just the seminal characters this incredible actor has played who never got an Emmy nomination. It’s hard to argue that Williams work in Lovecraft Country is his greatest performance, but it is by far one of the most personal he’s ever done. Playing a black, gay man in 1950s America is hard enough before you learn of all the secrets he’s been sitting on his life. Including he probably he isn’t his son’s father and all of the horrors that has led to an extent. That’s before the penultimate episode when the characters traveled back to 1921 Tulsa – and Montrose revealed the massacre wasn’t what shaped him that day. Williams earned this award, and considering he took the Supporting Actor prize from the Critics Choice, he’s clearly the favorite. Con: To say Williams has a horrible history with the Emmys is the understatement of the year. Much as he deserves to win, you can very easily see someone arguing for another brilliant character in this category that already has.

 

Prediction: Michael, bring Omar’s shotgun to the ceremony. Because of you don’t win, ‘someone’s got to get got.”  (Also start your speech with ‘How do.”)

 

Hooray For Hollywood...Critics Association: Part 2, I Try to Pick All the winners in Comedy

 

OUTSTANDING BROADCAST COMEDY SERIES

I thought this would be harder. But it isn’t. With almost every awards group in the major category you go with the most nominated series, and that series is extraordinary…Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist. Go ahead, show NBC what they lost and try like hell to get yourself picked up.

Should Win/Will Win: Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist.

 

OUTSTANDING CABLE COMEDY SERIES

This is a lot trickier as there’s no obvious frontrunner here. I think – bear in mind it’s just a guess – it’s going to come down between Breeders and Shameless. Considering that every other awards show has ignored it, I’m going to give it the barest of edges, though my heart is with Breeders.

Should Win: Breeders.

Will Win: Shameless (?)

 

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES, BROADCAST OR CABLE

This is trickier than above. Could Anthony Anderson break his streak of not being recognized here? Will Ted Danson be honored to make up for the fact he wasn’t nominated by the Emmys? Could they end up choosing Martin Freeman (my personal preference?) This is a very tough call for me, but I’m going to give the narrowest of margins to Danson. He was overlooked repeatedly by the Emmys these past few years, and there may be some residual The Good Place guilt.

Should Win: Freeman.

Will Win: Danson.

 

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES, BROADCAST OR CABLE

Will it go to Tracee Ellis Ross, who’s owed just as much as Anderson is? I’d like to see Haggard win, because at least Freeman has an Emmy. But in all honesty, the most deserving candidate is the most likely won, Zoey herself: Jane Levy. Maybe she’ll actually say the word in her acceptance speech that was bleeped out by the credits.

Should Win/Will Win: Levy.

 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES, BROADCAST OR CABLE

Will the Rock win an award for playing himself? Somehow I think that’s too meta for a critics group.

I think the winner is most likely going to be one of the Extraordinary nominees. And although there’s a very good argument for all three, I think the one who’ll win is Alex Newell for their inspirational performance as Mo. They were the most likely of the cast to get an Emmy nomination, and I really think the HCA will make up for it here.

Should Win/Will Win: Newell.

 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES, BROADCAST OR CABLE

Like I said, Supporting Actress is a wild card in just about any awards group and there are some genuinely deserving nominees. I’d like to see Mary Steenburgen prevail for playing Zoey’s widowed mom, but for once I’m not going on that bandwagon. Instead, I’m going for my favorite actress on a series I’m not quite won over by yet, Holly Hunter for Mr. Mayor. Hunter is one of the great actresses of all time, and the greatest under-recognized talent of the New Golden Age and this proves she is as adept a comic as she is at drama.

Should Win: Steenburgen.

Will Win: Hunter.

 

On to streaming, which is probably going to be closer to what we see Emmy night.

 

BEST STREAMING COMEDY

I don’t think I need to make an argument here. Even those who love Cobra Kai or Girls5Eva would be hard pressed to say that anything can stop Ted Lasso at this point, especially here.

Should Win/Will Win: Ted Lasso.

 

BEST ACTOR IN A STREAMING COMEDY

As badly as I want to see Michael Douglas try to give as good a speech as he did in the final episode of The Kominsky Method, again we all know the winner. Jason Sudeikis may be reluctant to call himself a lead, I don’t.

Should Win: Douglas/Sudeikis

Will Win: Sudeikis.

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES, STREAMING

When this category was announced I was almost certain that Kaley Cuoco would prevail for her word in The Flight Attendant. But the momentum has shifted, and I’m relatively sure that this prize in Jean Smart’s to lose. She deserved on sentiment before; having seen Hacks in its entirety, she’s earned it now.

Should Win/Will Win: Smart.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES, STREAMING

Okay, this is trickier. I think it’s likely that an actor from Ted Lasso will prevail, but seriously trying to choose one of them would be like having Ted trying to choose his favorite.

Okay. Mohammed, like his character, is probably going to be overlooked.  Jeremy Swift is hysterical on every line (and would be my sentimental favorite) but I think he’s a dark horse. It basically comes down to the aging heartthrob (Goldstein) or the man of few words, all of them clever (Hunt as Coach Beard). Oh this is hard. They really could end up with a tie.

All right, I’m going to go with Hunt. He’s one of the key players behind the scenes and honestly, he’s probably the most fun to watch. Honestly, I actually hope he wins just to see how big a speech he ends up giving.

Should Win: Swift (or anyone from Ted Lasso.)

Will Win: Hunt (or, anyone from Ted Lasso.)

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES, STREAMING

This is actually harder than the one above, not because the front-runner doesn’t deserve to win, but because a lot of the others clearly do. Rosie Perez is really engaging on The Flight Attendant. I completely underestimated Hannah Einbinder from her early work on Hacks; she’s more than a worthy nominee now, and frankly so is Kaitlin Olson.

And I’d love to see Kathleen Turner win for her turn on The Kominsky Method which was both hysterical and heartbreaking.

But as hysterical as all of these performances are, I think we all know who’s going to win this one: Hannah Waddingham took the Supporting Actress prize from the Broadcast Critics earlier this year and has been the overarching favorite ever since.  And considering that watching her be won over by Ted, and realize all her flaws, was one of the series greatest joys, it’s also one of the deepest ones. Does my sentimentality really lean towards Turner? Yes. But it’s going to go to Waddingham, and I really have no problem with it.

Should Win: Turner (or honestly, any of the nominees)

Will Win: Waddingham.

 

All right. I’ll wrap it up with Anthology, Limited Series and TV Movie later this week. Best part? They didn’t go overboard for Hamilton.

i Attempt to Pick This Year's Emmy Winners, Week 1, Part 3: Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama

 

If anything, this category is even more diverse than the previous one. Three African American nominees, breaking the previous record. The first trans-woman of any kind. The first non-binary nominee, period (after Alex Newell and Asia Kate Dillon, I honestly didn’t think it would happen) .And some of the greatest performances this year. It’s going to be difficult choosing between them, even if there is an overwhelming favorite.

 

Uzo Aduba, In Treatment: 13-2. For Playing: Dr. Brooke Taylor, a psychiatrist trying to help her new patients – and herself – in the America we live in. Pro: It takes a lot of work to succeed an actor who won multiple awards for the lead role in the first incarnation of this series, but it took very little to convince me of just how masterful Aduba was. Dealing with some truly complex and original personalities (some of whom should’ve earned nominations themselves), it became clear early on Brooke was the most broken of them all. As we saw in one of the most memorable episodes, where she literally analyzed herself – it’s remarkable she got through her patient’s baggage considering her own. I really hope theirs another season. Con: I’m clearly in the minority. In Treatment was otherwise shut out by the Emmys, and considering that Aduba has three trophies (one just from last year), she’s on the outside looking in this year.

 

Olivia Colman, The Crown: 11-2. For playing: The aging Queen Elizabeth II, struggling with the new PM, her children and the daughter-in-law she doesn’t appreciate. Pro: This is Colman’s last year on the series, but it was almost one of the most radical. In the previous seasons our sympathy has largely been with Elizabeth and her struggles. For the first time, creator Peter Morgan and his staff did their level best to take out most of the sympathy he’d built up for her. She now comes across as a mother who doesn’t love her children (and indeed, barely tolerates them) a woman who cares more for how her daughter-in-law makes the crown looks than how she feels, and a sovereign who is increasingly out of touch with the world she lives in. Given all that, the final episode of Season 4, where she had her final meetings with Margaret Thatcher, a woman she loathed, was one of her greatest moments. You add to all of this the fact that Colman has been owed an Emmy at least since the first season of Broadchurch and it’s hard to argue why she isn’t the sentimental favorite. Con: She deserves to win, no question. But there’s a good reason she won’t. See below.

 

Emma Corrin, The Crown: 71-20. For Playing: Princess Diana, the new Princess of Wales, who quickly finds out the fact her husband doesn’t love her is the least of her problems. Pro: When Morgan wrote The Queen, he portrayed Diana as an upstart who in death completely upstaged the monarchy and whose actions went against everything Elizabeth stood for. It is very remarkable that in Season 4, Morgan gives a picture that comes to the opposite conclusion. And the lion’s share of that is because of the incredible performance by Corrin as Diana.  We know going in she isn’t wanted by her husband, but she does everything humanly possible to make her marriage work, and some of the most painful scenes in the series so far are just how little her husband appreciates her. And seeing how badly she truly suffers as a person is actually worse when you consider that the royal family by and large seems to consider that this is part and parcel of the job and she should just keep a stiff upper lip – something that by now Diana is incapable of. This was an incredible performance and considering that Corrin took the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice for Best Actress, I’d be stunned if anything could stop them from prevailing. Con: Colman might split the vote, which could let someone else sneak in. And I actually have an idea who.

 

Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale: 9-2. For Playing: June/Offred, refugee of Gilead, now a resistance fighter trying to bring it down. Pro: Moss remains one of television greatest actresses more than two decades after debuting. And even as the series goes into far darker territory than even the book, Moss continues to remain the one real constant. Con: At this point, even the most devoted fans of this series really believe that June is no longer central to the overarching story of Gilead. And as the show continues to shift to other character, it’s hard to think that the nomination of Moss isn’t more due to the Emmys tendency towards laziness rather than any level of excellence from its lead.

 

MJ Rodriguez, Pose: 9-2. For playing: Blanca, a transgender African American woman in 1990s New York, trying to find her path. Pro: Set aside the fact that Rodriguez made history in this category. Because honestly, Rodriguez’s work in the final season of Pose was one of the series – and TV’s – greatest triumphs. Having seen everything she’s gone through (and we got a good hint of that in a flashback) it was astounding that this year, she actually got everything she deserved to: she became a wife, she got into nursing school, she managed to beat HIV, she became a nurse, and in the final moments of the series, was recognized as the true legend of the ballrooms she was. Putting all this together, under any other circumstances, Rodriguez wouldn’t be contending; she’d be the favorite. Con: Timing. Everything considered, I honestly think the Emmys would rather go for a real-life princess than a fictional queen of the ballrooms.

 

Jurnee Smollett, Lovecraft Country: 7-1. For Playing: Letitia ‘F-King’ Lewis, Tic’s ex-girlfriend finding herself traveling dark territory in 1950s America. Pro: Majors have been the lead, but Smollett was the heart of this incredible series from the moment we saw her firing a shotgun at white men trying to kill her…or worse. One of the most incredible moments of 2020 came when as a white mob charged her houses, she smashed all the windshields of the cars blaring music, threw the baseball bat in a bag, and then lay flat on the ground – a moment that I’m pretty sure every single African American could relate too. She knew the danger everyone was in, but to save everyone she loved she was willing to risk everything. Smollett gave a performance for the ages. Con: That just doesn’t seem to be enough this year. Despite the accomplishments of Lovecraft Country, it was quickly overshadowed by other suns. Add the fact it was cancelled and that it was an anthology, and Smollett is likely to get left by the wayside.

 

 

Prediction: It would be a great story if Rodriguez could end up the winner. But the voters’ hearts – and the trends of the year – make it likely that Corrin will continue the same march that O’Connor is on.

Hooray For Hollywood...Critics Association: Picking the winners, Part 1: ALL THE DRAMA

 

For those of you who follow my column regularly, you might remember that last month I went into the critical equivalent ecstasy when the brand new Hollywood Critics Association announced their first ever awards for television.

It wasn’t just that there’s a new critics group that is determine to acknowledge the best in television and try to fill in the gaps that the Emmys so often leave (and despite their best endeavors, did this year as well) It was that for the first time they did something that not even the Critics Choice Awards (still among my favorite TV awards ever) have ever tried. To acknowledge the inevitable breakdown between broadcast, cable and streaming television, the HCA decide to split their awards between all three.

I was slightly dismayed when the awards were forced to go from live to virtual and were pushed back from last Sunday to this one. But since the odds were I wasn’t going to be able to see it anyway, it actually gave me more time to focus. So I’ll try to do my level best to guess who will win what awards in each category. I do, however, want to say up front that the usual cliché “It’s an honor just to be nominated” is more than true for once for (almost) all the nominees.

So here I go. As I almost inevitably do, I’ll start with Drama

 

BEST BROADCAST NETWORK DRAMA

Much as I’d like to see it go to Superman & Lois  just so somebody from the CW can finally accept an award, I think it basically comes down to a choice between This is Us and Big Sky. Big Sky is the current new contender and This is Us has been denied love from almost every other awards group. I’m going to give This is Us the edge.

Should Win: This is Us/Big Sky.

Will Win: This is Us.

 

BEST CABLE DRAMA SERIES

This is trickier. Despite all the talent in this category, there’s a huge part of me that really wants Cruel Summer to win. It’s definitely going to be on my top ten list this year and it’s on a network that until last month was generally ignored by any critics group. I think it’s a dark horse because of its being a huge hit, but I just can’t see it winning.

I think it will come down to a choice between two radically visual series about being black in America: Lovecraft Country or Pose. Both were had everything: great performances, fascinating backstories for all of its characters, and the hardship of being black and gay (though the latter series emphasized that far more.) Pose aired its final season; there won’t be another one of Lovecraft Country. Tough call, but I’ll give the barest of edges to Pose.

Should Win: Cruel Summer.

Will Win: Pose.

 

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A BROADCAST OR CABLE SERIES, DRAMA

Now we have to pick  a winner considering The Crown isn’t here. But actually, it’s pretty easy. Much I would like to see Matthew Rhys or Sterling Brown prevail, this one is Billy Porter’s in a walk. Considering everything we saw Pray Tell go through in the final season, he’s earned this one.

Should Win/Will Win: Porter.

 

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A BROADCAST OR CABLE SERIES, DRAMA

If the HCA is like the Broadcast Critics, they might very well end up with ties. If that were to be the case, then I’d have no problem. Chiara Aurelia and Olivia Holt were magnificent in Cruel Summer and since you can’t honor one without the other, give it to both of them. Maybe it’ll happen.

That being said, and much I’d like to see Mandy Moore get a trophy, I think this is a fairly easy call too. MJ Rodriguez gave a magnificent performance in her final season as Blanca. Considering that Porter tended to dominate Pose’s proceedings, I think it would be fitting for Rodriguez to triumph her.

Should Win: Aurelia/Holt.

Will Win: Rodriguez.

 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA, BROADCAST OR CABLE

The automatic winner might well be Michael K. Williams, the odds on favorite at the Emmys for Supporting Actor. But I think there might be a possibility that they will honor a different face. Which one?

I’m going to go out on a limb and go for John Carroll Lynch. His work in Big Sky was one of the great performances in any medium this year. Pure evil hidden by good old boy and a brain dead act so well craft, I couldn’t tell until he was faking. I am giving the barest of edges to Lynch.

Should Win: Williams.

Will Win: Lynch.

 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA, BROADCAST OR CABLE

This is a lot trickier considering there’s no Gillian Anderson or anyone from The Crown or The Handmaid’s Tale to give us a hint. Will it me another nominee from Pose? I’d really like to see Dominique Jackson march to the podium. Could Brooke Smith get credit for an awesome performance on Big Sky? Possibly. But I think it may very well end up going to one of the biggest robberies of an Emmy nomination this year – Tatiana Maslany for her superb work as an evangelist on Perry Mason. This is the category that has the biggest surprises anywhere, but I’ll give Maslany the edge.

Should Win: Jackson.

Will Win: Maslany.

 

Sigh. Now on the streaming. Not that the choice aren’t great ones, far from it. I’m just reasonably certain they will be cut and paste from every awards show to this point and almost certain the Emmys later this month. But here we go.

 

BEST STREAMING SERIES, DRAMA

Unless the critics really migrate towards The Mandalorian or love Bridgeton, this will go to The Crown. It’s not really a question and frankly it deserves to win.

Should Win/Will Win: The Crown

 

BEST ACTOR IN A STREAMING SERIES, DRAMA

Will there be a flood to Rege-Jean Page? Doubt it. Look for Josh O’Connor to continue his winning streak.

Should Win/Will Win: O’Connor.

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA, STREAMING SERIES

Could Olivia Colman upset Emma Corrin? This might happen. Colman is sort of due a win in this category. One way or another, a royal is winning.

Should Win: Colman.

Will Win: Colman/Corrin

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA, STREAMING

Ok, now I actually have to make an educated guess. Could Tobias Menzies end up winning for playing Prince Philip? His work this season was good, especially in the finale, but in all honesty, he was better in Season 3. I honestly think the biggest thing is his favor is sentimentality – and because the real-life character he played died, which is really weird.

I’m actually going to lean a little more towards sci-fi this time. I think it will go to either Giancarlo Esposito, though whether it’s for The Boys or The Mandalorian I’m genuinely not sure. Should he cancel himself out, it will go to Bradley Whitford, who has won in this category at the Emmys.

Should Win: Esposito.

Will Win: Esposito/Whitford.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA, STREAMING

And with no Helena Bonham Carter or Emerald Fennell to divide the vote, no question here. Gillian Anderson completes her march to glory as the Iron Lady. I’m honestly thrilled for her.

Should Win/Will Win: Anderson.

 

This was a lot of ground. I’ll handle comedy in the next entry.