Before I start, I already have a reason to love the HCA’s nominations for Anthology Series, Special, and TV Movies. Yes, they acknowledged Hamilton, but unlike the Emmys they didn’t go overboard for it. Two acting nominations were more than sufficient. And that’s just the most obvious reason.
Onward to the awards.
BEST BROADCAST OR CABLE LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY OR TV MOVIE
Much as I would love to see Fargo or The Undoing prevail, I think it’ll likely come down to one of the Emmy nominees for HBO – I May Destroy You or Mare of Easttown. It’s still a tough call - I May Destroy You is loved by the critics; Mare has more nominations. I think I’ll give the barest of edges to Mare.
Should Win: Fargo.
Will Win: Mare of Easttown/ I May Destroy You.
BEST STREAMING LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY OR TV MOVIE
This is actually trickier. I think Hamilton is basically out. There could be some residual love for Underground Railroad – a lot of people thought it was underrecognized by the Emmys. And Wandavision does have a lot of nominations. All that said, it’s still probably going to go to the one that has dominated the awards since February – The Queen’s Gambit.
Should Win/Will Win: The Queen’s Gambit
BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY OR TV MOVIE
This is actually a better group than the one he ended up getting from the Emmys. Part of me still really wants Chris Rock to win for Fargo. But I think it’ll come down to the Emmys choices: Hugh Grant vs. Paul Bettany. Since The Undoing has more love here, I’ll give the edge to Grant.
Should Win: Rock.
Will Win: Grant.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY OR TV MOVIE
And we’re basically where we were for the Emmys. It’s a three-way race between Michaela Coel, Anya Taylor-Joy, and Kate Winslet. Taylor-Joy has the acting awards going in, Winslet has the momentum and Coel actually has the bonus that she can’t win for writing or directing, so they might honor her for her acting (which was as good as Winslet or Taylor-Joy’s). Not an easy choice at all. The critics have recognized Coel and Taylor-Joy so far, so I’ll assume it’s one of them. I give the barest of edges to Taylor-Joy, and hope for a tie.
Should Win: Taylor-Joy/Coel.
Will Win: Taylor-Joy (but it’s a tough category)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY OR TV MOVIE
This category is far better than the one we actually got from the Emmys. I’d like to see Bill Camp prevail, but I find it unlikely he will. Evan Peters has the momentum for the Emmys, but that’s mainly because most of the better choices weren’t there. I think the Critics will make the choice the Emmys almost certain would have if they hadn’t gone overboard for Hamilton, among utter flaws in this category – they will give Best Supporting Actor to Jon Boyega for Small Axe. He won a Golden Globe and a Critics Choice; I was sure it was inevitable whether I liked it or not. Now I think it’s the right thing.
Should Win: Camp.
Will Win: Boyega.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY OR TV MOVIE
First things first, Kat Demmings and Teyonah Paris deserved their nominations for Wandavision.
This is going to be tougher than the actual Emmys. I wanted to see either Jessie Buckley for Fargo or Marielle Heller for The Queen’s Gambit win before, and both were robbed of nominations. Smart does have some momentum, and I really want to see Julianne Nicholson for Mare of Easttown win something. And Kathryn Hahn does still have something of an edge. You know, I really do think there might be a tie here.
Ok, in my hearts of hearts, I want Buckley to win. In my guts, it’ll be either Nicholson or Hahn. I pick Hahn, by an eyelash.
Should Win: Buckley/Nicholson.
Will Win: Hahn, but there are no bad choices in this category.
I honestly don’t know what’ll happen Sunday night. (I’m not even sure if I’ll be able to find the HCA on any service.) But whether my choices are proven right or proven wrong, I will be delighted by the results. Almost certainly more so than with the Emmys.
Be back on the Emmy predictions tomorrow. I’ll have a report on the awards Monday.
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