For those of you who follow my column regularly, you might remember that last month I went into the critical equivalent ecstasy when the brand new Hollywood Critics Association announced their first ever awards for television.
It wasn’t just that there’s a new critics group that is determine to acknowledge the best in television and try to fill in the gaps that the Emmys so often leave (and despite their best endeavors, did this year as well) It was that for the first time they did something that not even the Critics Choice Awards (still among my favorite TV awards ever) have ever tried. To acknowledge the inevitable breakdown between broadcast, cable and streaming television, the HCA decide to split their awards between all three.
I was slightly dismayed when the awards were forced to go from live to virtual and were pushed back from last Sunday to this one. But since the odds were I wasn’t going to be able to see it anyway, it actually gave me more time to focus. So I’ll try to do my level best to guess who will win what awards in each category. I do, however, want to say up front that the usual cliché “It’s an honor just to be nominated” is more than true for once for (almost) all the nominees.
So here I go. As I almost inevitably do, I’ll start with Drama
BEST BROADCAST NETWORK DRAMA
Much as I’d like to see it go to Superman & Lois just so somebody from the CW can finally accept an award, I think it basically comes down to a choice between This is Us and Big Sky. Big Sky is the current new contender and This is Us has been denied love from almost every other awards group. I’m going to give This is Us the edge.
Should Win: This is Us/Big Sky.
Will Win: This is Us.
BEST CABLE DRAMA SERIES
This is trickier. Despite all the talent in this category, there’s a huge part of me that really wants Cruel Summer to win. It’s definitely going to be on my top ten list this year and it’s on a network that until last month was generally ignored by any critics group. I think it’s a dark horse because of its being a huge hit, but I just can’t see it winning.
I think it will come down to a choice between two radically visual series about being black in America: Lovecraft Country or Pose. Both were had everything: great performances, fascinating backstories for all of its characters, and the hardship of being black and gay (though the latter series emphasized that far more.) Pose aired its final season; there won’t be another one of Lovecraft Country. Tough call, but I’ll give the barest of edges to Pose.
Should Win: Cruel Summer.
Will Win: Pose.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A BROADCAST OR CABLE SERIES, DRAMA
Now we have to pick a winner considering The Crown isn’t here. But actually, it’s pretty easy. Much I would like to see Matthew Rhys or Sterling Brown prevail, this one is Billy Porter’s in a walk. Considering everything we saw Pray Tell go through in the final season, he’s earned this one.
Should Win/Will Win: Porter.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A BROADCAST OR CABLE SERIES, DRAMA
If the HCA is like the Broadcast Critics, they might very well end up with ties. If that were to be the case, then I’d have no problem. Chiara Aurelia and Olivia Holt were magnificent in Cruel Summer and since you can’t honor one without the other, give it to both of them. Maybe it’ll happen.
That being said, and much I’d like to see Mandy Moore get a trophy, I think this is a fairly easy call too. MJ Rodriguez gave a magnificent performance in her final season as Blanca. Considering that Porter tended to dominate Pose’s proceedings, I think it would be fitting for Rodriguez to triumph her.
Should Win: Aurelia/Holt.
Will Win: Rodriguez.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA, BROADCAST OR CABLE
The automatic winner might well be Michael K. Williams, the odds on favorite at the Emmys for Supporting Actor. But I think there might be a possibility that they will honor a different face. Which one?
I’m going to go out on a limb and go for John Carroll Lynch. His work in Big Sky was one of the great performances in any medium this year. Pure evil hidden by good old boy and a brain dead act so well craft, I couldn’t tell until he was faking. I am giving the barest of edges to Lynch.
Should Win: Williams.
Will Win: Lynch.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA, BROADCAST OR CABLE
This is a lot trickier considering there’s no Gillian Anderson or anyone from The Crown or The Handmaid’s Tale to give us a hint. Will it me another nominee from Pose? I’d really like to see Dominique Jackson march to the podium. Could Brooke Smith get credit for an awesome performance on Big Sky? Possibly. But I think it may very well end up going to one of the biggest robberies of an Emmy nomination this year – Tatiana Maslany for her superb work as an evangelist on Perry Mason. This is the category that has the biggest surprises anywhere, but I’ll give Maslany the edge.
Should Win: Jackson.
Will Win: Maslany.
Sigh. Now on the streaming. Not that the choice aren’t great ones, far from it. I’m just reasonably certain they will be cut and paste from every awards show to this point and almost certain the Emmys later this month. But here we go.
BEST STREAMING SERIES, DRAMA
Unless the critics really migrate towards The Mandalorian or love Bridgeton, this will go to The Crown. It’s not really a question and frankly it deserves to win.
Should Win/Will Win: The Crown
BEST ACTOR IN A STREAMING SERIES, DRAMA
Will there be a flood to Rege-Jean Page? Doubt it. Look for Josh O’Connor to continue his winning streak.
Should Win/Will Win: O’Connor.
BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA, STREAMING SERIES
Could Olivia Colman upset Emma Corrin? This might happen. Colman is sort of due a win in this category. One way or another, a royal is winning.
Should Win: Colman.
Will Win: Colman/Corrin
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA, STREAMING
Ok, now I actually have to make an educated guess. Could Tobias Menzies end up winning for playing Prince Philip? His work this season was good, especially in the finale, but in all honesty, he was better in Season 3. I honestly think the biggest thing is his favor is sentimentality – and because the real-life character he played died, which is really weird.
I’m actually going to lean a little more towards sci-fi this time. I think it will go to either Giancarlo Esposito, though whether it’s for The Boys or The Mandalorian I’m genuinely not sure. Should he cancel himself out, it will go to Bradley Whitford, who has won in this category at the Emmys.
Should Win: Esposito.
Will Win: Esposito/Whitford.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA, STREAMING
And with no Helena Bonham Carter or Emerald Fennell to divide the vote, no question here. Gillian Anderson completes her march to glory as the Iron Lady. I’m honestly thrilled for her.
Should Win/Will Win: Anderson.
This was a lot of ground. I’ll handle comedy in the next entry.
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