My Predictions For This Year's Emmys, Week 1 Concluded: Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Plus

 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

Even though I believe the Emmys nominated the wrong actress named Sarah (I truly think Sarah Goldberg’s work in Barry was as worthy as any of the other nominees from the series) this is a very strong category. There is a major frontrunner, and a couple of serious contenders who could very well upset her, as well as two double winners in this category who have an argument for a third. There are some great nominees here. So without further ado:

 

Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel: 8-1.

For Playing: Susie Myerson, the perpetually dour and put-upon manager of Midge. For Her: Borstein is one of the great comic actresses of all time. Like McKinnon a sketch comedy veteran, a great voice artist actress and her work on Maisel is one of her crowning achievement having already taking two Emmys for her exceptional work. Given her immense failures in Season 3, she spent much of the fourth season pushing Midge harder and facing bigger problems – career-wise and social. She is as critical to the success of this series as Brosnahan and deserves recognition. Against Her:  Like McKinnon she’s received a lot of recognition in this category (her two consecutive Emmys came after McKinnon’s two consecutive ones) and of all the actresses in this category, her time may have passed.

 

Hannah Einbinder, Hacks: 5-1.

For Playing: Ava, the millennial joke writer for Deb Vance, trying to make amends for a major mistake. For Here: Einbinder deserves to be the out and out favorite for this category. In my opinion, it took her a little while to find her stride in Season 1. This season, Einbinder was firing on all cylinders from start to finish. From her trying to make amends at the worst possible time and going all of technology, her struggles with Deb’s lawsuit, which we could not tell was serious or not all season, helping to boost Deb at her worst moments, Einbinder was funny all the way through. And she was also incredibly moving – dealing with her father’s ashes being thrown out on the road, reading out the email where she tells everything she felt about Deb (which was heartbreaking), struggling to find common ground with a mother who never got her, and in the final episode being forced out of her relationship with the woman she’d come to love.  Einbinder didn’t have an off note all season, and she more than deserved to win the Supporting Actress prize from the HCA this Sunday. I really want to see her up there. Against her: Let’s be honest, it’s the other Hannah in this category. I was kind of shocked that Einbinder managed to win by herself in this category (they tied in this came category last year). Is there enough momentum this time? Or maybe the problem is so much the other Hannah, but the other Ava. (See below.)

 

Janelle James, Abbott Elementary: 11-2.

For Playing: Ava Coleman, the principal who is on top of social media and clueless about everything else. For Her: James has been shooting up the odds in this category like a rocket, even before winning the Supporting Actress prize for Broadcast and Cable at the HCA. Anyone who’s seen her performance knows why. Ava is the worst possible person to be principal (we learned in the pilot she used blackmail to get it) and she seemed utterly without any redeeming qualities, despite the fact that every line out of her mouth was hysterical. But Brunson doesn’t write shallow characters, and the more we got to learn about Ava, the more we began to fall in love with her for another set of reasons. She has humanity with her family, she doesn’t know what to do at any other job and for all her laziness, and she really cares about her job as principal. James is wonderful to watch every minute she’s on screen, she’s as much a sensation as Brunson is. Against Her: It hasn’t been as long that an actress from a broadcast sitcom won an Emmy in this category – Allison Janney in 2015, back to back – but it has been awhile.  And the competition is really tough.

 

Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live: 9-1.

For Playing: Various characters. For her: McKinnon, the rock of SNL for nearly a decade, finally left the stage this May. And while I was never her biggest fan (or indeed that of sketch comedy being nominated in this category at all) I have to admit that her last sketch on the show had all the earmarks of being the kind of thing that would get most people an Emmy. As one of the most twisted characters she played left the planet, McKinnon more or less broke the fourth wall to a huge round of applause. That’s the kind of thing that could get you an Emmy, even for sketch comedy. Against Her: The love for SNL, as I said in regard to Bowen Yang, has dimmed quite a bit this last season. And when you consider that McKinnon already has two Emmys to her credit, I think the Emmys will feel few qualms about letting the nomination speak for itself.

 

Sarah Niles, Ted Lasso: 10-1.

For Playing: Dr. Fieldstone, the sports psychiatrist who comes into Richmond and clashes with – then helps – Ted. For Her: Niles is relatively new to American audiences– she made an impression last year on I May Destroy You, but few knew her that she’s been working constantly for the previous decade  - but she made an impression on this show. I’ll get to the nature of why that may work against her, but on my part while I wasn’t expecting her nomination, I think Niles did earn it. Gently picking away at the always cheerful exterior of Ted, she managed to get to the heart of what was one of his bigger problems. That’s the kind of thing that deserves nominations. Against Her: Oh, did some fans and critics of the show hate this storyline. Part of it was because most new characters to an established series face a backlash to begin with, but a lot of them did not like what this doctor made us learn about Ted’s history. It’s not really fair to Niles, but I’m pretty sure this will cost her any chance of winning. (Of course, see below.)

 

Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary: 8-1.

For Playing: Barbara, the veteran teacher at Abbott, reluctant mentor and friend to most. For Her: If James provides the hysterical comedy of the series, Ralph is the soul of Abbott Elementary. She knows better than anyone what it’s like to be a teacher – something she made very clear in the most powerful monologue in the Pilot. Barbara is set in her ways and reluctant to change, but she is fundamentally someone who knows how to use the system in a way that so many of the newcomers find useful. This is character not far removed from much of the work Ralph, one of the best character actress on television for decades, has been doing for a long time. Her nomination in this category was the most pleasant surprise in the group, and if the Emmys were sentimental, they could very well honor her. Against Her: The Emmys, much like Barbara herself, is not sentimental. More to the point, this category is filled with some of the best comic actresses working today where as Ralph is just one of the best actresses working today. A minor distinction, I admit, but I think it will end up working against her. It shouldn’t, but like the character she plays, she knows that life is rarely far.

 

Juno Temple, Ted Lasso: 17-2.

For Playing: Keeley, a model finding her brand – and her relationship. For Her: Why does it seem that Juno Temple is the only member of Ted Lasso who doesn’t get credit for the awesome performances she gives every time she’s onscreen? Ever since the first season, we have learned quickly the depth that she has and Season 2 gave her more than enough of an opportunity to plumb them, mostly through her brilliant scenes with Waddingham and Goldstein. Goldstein said his acceptance the reason he gets so many awards is because he’s in so many scenes with Temple, and given their chemistry and humanity every time their together, it’s hard to argue the point. Similarly every time Keeley and Rebecca are onscreen together, you get the seeds of a genuine female friendship with women trying to help and support each other. Temple’s work is the definition of what a supporting actress should do – she gives her castmates great support. Against Her:  Of course, part of the problem with giving so much supporting is that you usually don’t get credit for your own work. For better or worse, most supporting awards go to actors and actress known for showy but lesser roles in a series. (I have a feeling that’s why, given the choice, Emmy voters would choose Janelle James over Sheryl Lee Ralph.) That is why Waddingham’s brilliant work would more like triumph over the subtleties of Temple’s.

 

Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso: 9-2.

For Playing: Rebecca Welton, the head of Richmond now trying to lead the team out of regulation – and following her heart. For Her: Rebecca reformed was as much fun to watch as Rebecca being hostile and a lot easier to like. Granted, there are very few changes in Rebecca’s fundamental personality, but it was charming to see Waddingham take her character and try to become a person, a better friend (especially with Keeley) and opening her heart to new experiences. We learned a lot about her when we met her mother and we learned some sad and sorrowful bits about Rebecca too, but Waddingham remains as much a force of nature now as she was before. She dominated the awards this spring and its obvious why she’s expected to repeat. Against Her: All of the new talent. The fact that Waddingham lost the Supporting Actress prize at the HCA to Einbinder this past week was a major upset and may show that her momentum is starting to slow.

 

PREDICTION: Much as I’d like to see James win to hear her speech, I think this will go to one of the Hannahs. But this time, I’m going to go for Einbinder over Waddingham.

 

As for Guest Actors and Actress in a Comedy:

I’m inclined to give the edge to Nathan Lane for his superb work in Only Murders in the Building. It’s not just sentimentality; his performance was funny, painful and moving. As for Supporting Actress, there’s a lean that this will go to Jane Lynch, and while I would be fine with another win for Only Murders in the Building, I’d prefer to see one of the talents connected to Hacks winning. My personal preference: Laurie Metcalf. Her performance was hysterical, and she had a hell of a season in every field.

Writing and Directing: Well, the HCA gave best writing in a Broadcast or Cable series to Abbott Elementary and directing to Barry. Streaming, Hacks triumphed in both categories. And those are just the winners; this is a tough category to fathom. Hacks could very easily duplicate its surprise wins that it managed last year, but I’m inclined to thing this year, the hyphenates will triumph. Look for Brunson to win for the Pilot of Abbott Elementary and Hader to win for directing 710N. But in this category, like Guest Actor and Actress, no bad choices.

 

Next week, I start on my choices in the Drama category which I’m slightly happier about than when I reported on them, but still kind of pissed. (But then, that’s what Peak TV is like these days.)