Before we get to Drama, I interrupt this column to update you on the TCA awards. I was going to devote a column to the results and my reactions to them at one point, but given how they were awarded there’s little point.
Abbott Elementary was the biggest winner by far, taking Best Comedy, Best New Program, Best Comic Performance for Quinta Brunson, and Show of the Year. It officially becomes in my opinion the out and out frontrunner for Best Comedy and Best Actress. Dopesick, not that shockingly, prevailed for Best Limited Series.
I’m not thrilled with the choice for Best Drama (which I’ll get to below) but nor am I that shocked. I am, however, overjoyed that the TCA’s selection for Best Dramatic Performer this year was Mandy Moore for This is Us, another worthy consolation prize. Critics. We get the job done.
And now, back to the blog.
Having seen far more of the nominated series this year in the month since my original dismal reaction, I concede that most of the choice were good ones. But if you’ve read my Overrated Series over this past year and several other columns, you know that I’m not exactly thrilled with three of the major nominees. I’m troubled by what the critical and audience worship of Succession says about we seem to be viewing Peak drama these days, I’m troubled by how awards shows like the Emmys have viewed a series like Ozark which is pure awards show bait, and when it comes to Euphoria, well, I’m just troubled.
That being said, unlike last year, when my frustration at the inexplicable number of nominees for The Handmaid’s Tale and Hamilton overwhelmed my detachment, with this year’s nominees I can understand, if not entirely approve, why most of the series and actors in these categories got their nominations. Am I frustrating that the Pearson clan was overlooked for the Roys and the Byrdes? I won’t pretend not to be. Does that mean I can be impartial when discussed why they’re here and their chances at winning? I think so. (I make no similar promises for Euphoria.)
So, without further ado, here are my predictions and odds, starting with Outstanding Drama.
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
Better Call Saul: 17-2.
For: The first half of the final season of Breaking Bad was the one where the parent series finally managed its breakthrough at the Emmys. And limited just to the first half of the final season of Better Call Saul, that half was just as good. Watching Lalo crawl out of the dirt from the slaughter at his compound, watching Nacho, the drug dealer with a soul face his fate and manage to die on his own terms, watching Gus and Mike deal with the possibility of repercussions. Mesmerizing. Then we watched as Jimmy and Kim spent their part of the season scheming to bring down Howard, the good guy of the series who they both had decided to turn against. And then in the final minutes of the first half finale, watching Howard show up and deride them for everything – and meet his fate for being in the wrong place at the wrong time. The cliffhanger for the first half was one of the best in history, all before you consider how the final episodes ended playing out. Better Call Saul is one of the greatest shows in history. The fact that it dominated the HCA TV Broadcast and Cable like no other show demonstrates that not only is its time coming, it’s more than deserving. Against: It’s not Succession. Seriously that is the only real argument that there seems to be against it dominated the drama awards this year. Yet compared to some of the other series in this category, its take home nominations were pitiful. Just like the title character, Better Call Saul seems destined not to get respect from its peers. (At least, this year.)
Euphoria: 17-2.
For: I don’t like series. I won’t pretend otherwise. But I can not deny the sensation it is. Millions of viewers love it and it and its lead are devoured by people world wide. It may be an exercise in style over substance, but there are elements that fundamentally reach people, mostly young in a way that many of us don’t want to face. It is bleak and it is hopeful, and according to critical groups one of the greats. Against: A lot of critics, for the record, did not like Season 2. And with the exception of the MTV Movie and TV awards (never the best map of critical awards success) it has been coming up empty everywhere else. It received nothing from the HCA, despite getting seven nominations and wasn’t even considered by the TCA as a series that deserved recognition. Zendaya, the sensation at the center of it, and the out and front runner of the Emmys even before the Season premiered, has lost her momentum to Melanie Lynskey (who triumphed at the Critics Choice and the HCA) and Laura Linney (who also triumphed at the HCA.) I think people who saw the second season may be wondering what they saw in it the first place.
Ozark: 8-1.
For: The saga of the Byrde family came to an end this year. They faced hard truths, got rid of their enemies, and managed to walk away free – if not clean. The only cost? Everything they had built or relationships they had made in the last four seasons. The death of Ruth Langmore, their most loyal soldier who did everything they asked for, suffered innumerably at their hands, and who they did nothing to save at the cost of their own skins. I’d also say their souls, but there’s an argument to be made that Marty never had one – and that Wendy and the children were willing to lose theirs to survive. Money is all that matters and it matter for a certain class of people more. That’s a message we’re all very familiar with. Against: Aside from certain drama critics, I don’t know of a lot of people who actually liked any part of this series. Many of them considered it the last ‘White Male Antihero Drama’ they’d ever watch and considering that it seemed to be cut and pasted from the worst parts of every great series, it’s hard to argue. That Ozark had a lot in favor of it – including a superb cast lead by Jason Bateman and Julia Garner – is hard to argue. That it had anything to offer more than so many other better dramas is harder.
Severance: 6-1.
For: This sensation from Apple TV might be the biggest chance to upset Succession on this list and if you’ve seen even a few episodes, it’s easy to understand why. This is one of the most daring series in years, brilliantly written with mysteries that fill every details and characters who you either can’t trust or don’t comprehend the world around them. Some of the most brilliant direction since the days of Sam Esmail, led by Ben Stiller, now established as one of the greatest dramatic talents in TV. One of the greatest casts with not a single weak link, from Adam Scott’s exceptional lead to the established work of the geniuses John Turturro and Patricia Arquette, to near unknowns Britt Lower. And given the Great Resignation and the struggles we have with work and life, this series couldn’t be timelier, especially when we consider how we hate our job. This was the biggest winner from the HCA TV awards, period, taking five trophies including Best Streaming Drama. This is one of the great accomplishments of our era. Against: The Emmys do not traditionally like giving Best Dramas to any series that has either a mystery or a mythology at its center. The last one to have any success was Lost. Severance is many things, but you would never call it traditional.
Squid Game: 11-2. For: The biggest sensation on Netflix and indeed much of the world in 2021. One of the most dystopian series in history with a far blunter – and in my opinion – more entertaining expression on both capitalism and the have and the have-nots than Succession ever will be. All of this is before you take into consideration that it’s Korean. The subtitles gave me more pause then the description of the violence, but once I started watching I found few reasons to object to either. The series also has some of the best performances all year, including a sensational one from Lee-Jung Jae as the lead who starts out with no more scruples than anyone else, and ends the series as the most unlikely of heroes. This series has been winning upset awards almost everywhere it’s competed, and it deserves to be a front-runner. Against: Well, there are those subtitles. Emmy voters have a lot of trouble voting for series made in Great Britain, much less in South Korea. Critics and audiences have found many of the themes and characters universal. I suspect the voters will have little trouble doing so with many of the actors and technical participants. But give a Korean show the Emmy for Best Drama? That’s a game I don’t think the voters are willing to play,
Stranger Things: 19-2.
For: Absent from streaming for three years, one of the greatest phenomena in television history returned in triumphant style this May. We may not believe the numbers that say it was the biggest sensation in the services history (we don’t trust Netflix much more than the keepers of the Upside Down at this point), but we can believe it was just as high quality as before. Watching Eleven spent much of the season being bullied and without her powers or her surrogate father; watching Hopper try to return from his exile in Russia; watching the group scattered to the four corners of America reunite to fight and old enemy – one that not all of them survived – proved that even three years after the fact, the Duffer Brothers and the extraordinary cast of actors, young and old, they’ve assembled is one of the great triumphs of our time. Against: Well, no one seems to trust Netflix about anything any more and that seems to now apply to the quality of its programs. No matter how great the series is all shows now have a black mark against this now sinking platform. And that is apparently a bigger problem to this series’ fate than the Demagorgon ever was.
Succession: 4-1. For: Regardless of my personal feelings for this series, almost since it debuted in October Succession has been making a slow but steady run towards its second Best Drama prize. And while I fundamentally disagree with the premise for its success among critics or viewers, I can’t exactly pretend that the level of the talent of the cast and to an extent the writing is not sublime. I may not like a single character on this series (that somehow seems to be one of the show’s strengths) but I won’t pretend to deny the power of the performances. Brian Cox’s bullheaded patriarch, Jeremy Strong’s spiraling eldest son, Kieran Culkin’s constantly puckish nasty child, Sarah Snook’s work as Shiv, someone who has no morals even for her own marriage. I don’t think any of them deserve to run Waystar. I don’t deny its riveting them fight to the death for it. Every critics group is willing to give it the Best Drama prize – even the TCA this month. It seems this is another triumph for the Roys. Against It: The series is having a very hard time winning any other awards but best Drama. Squid Game upset it for the acting awards, it could only manage to tie Better Call Saul for Best Drama at the HCA (the only prize it one in a ceremony dominated by Saul, Yellowjackets and (cough) This is Us and even its wins at the Critics Choice were overshadowed by the triumph of Lee-Jung Jae for Best Actor. I don’t deny the momentum for the Roys is there, but like the characters on the series, I think it’s shallow and hollow.
Yellowjackets: 9-1. For: This may be Showtime’s best series since Masters of Sex and its first out and out phenomena since Homeland, and it’s not hard to see why. The series has the makings of Lost with its plane crash opening, but then goes into far darker territory than that series (and frankly many in this category would). It has mysteries that are known to the characters but not the audience. There are implications of dark secrets that the characters aren’t admitting to themselves. It has one of the great groups of actresses – teenagers and adults – in recent memory, and its one of the strongest female led series I’ve seen since the early days of Orange is the New Black. Yellowjackets has the potential to take up the bar and become of the one first great series, not only of this decade but maybe in TV history. Against It: There were a lot of debut drama this series that had strong openings (see above) and while it is likely that Yellowjackets will triumph in acting and directing awards, many of the voters may not think to award a freshman series its top prize – at least not this freshman.
PREDICTION: In a fair world, Better Call Saul or Squid Game would win. But as we all know, the Emmys aren’t fair or logical. Just accept Succession will win Best Drama and hope – as I have reason to – that it won’t win much else on Emmy night. (As I will get to below, I have every reason to think so.)
Tomorrow, Best Actor in a Drama.
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