Does it get old saying how much I
love the Critics Choice Awards when it comes to television in particular? Well
after more than a decade of watching said awards shows I can say the bloom has
yet to come off the rose.
It's always delightful to watch
Chelsea Handler emcee as she will for the fourth consecutive year (and hell
knows the last few months have given her more than enough material to work with
in the industry). It's always fun watching the presenters and the acceptance
speeches no matter whether its film or TV.
And when it comes to TV the Critics Choice awards remain without peer
when it comes to either nominations or winners. (Yes I do love the Astras but
I've missed the last two awards shows due to other factors. Hopefully this year
I'll get it right and so will they.)
When it comes to TV the Critics
Choice Awards have always struck a good balance between following, leading and
marching to their own drum. This is true even if they follow the Emmys in
lockstep in many choices which they have in recent years but even then they
will find ways to shock even the winners. This is the organization that gave
its Best Drama prize to The Americans three time, gave Better Call
Saul the Best Drama award for its final season and Bob Odenkirk three Best
Actor Awards. They've honored Stranger Things in acting as well as given
Abbott Elementary their prize for Best Comedy and honored the CW with
more awards than the Emmys ever did. Every time they nominate shows I make sure
to seek them out because they've never led me wrong in fifteen years. They were
certainly right about All Her Fault.
So how will play out this year? I
suspect records will be set with no one noticing, much of the 2024-2025 season
will be recognized and we might get some hints for how next years Emmys will
play out in multiple categories as well as the possibility of righting some
wrongs from last year. With that in mind I gave up trying to predict what they
would do years ago and most of the time there are no bad choices.
So here are my predictions for
this year's awards in television.
BEST DRAMA SERIES
You can never rule out the
Critics Choice honoring new blood in any category and they have a great
fondness for Vince Gilligan's shows. Breaking Bad won their top prize
twice in its original run and Better Call Saul did win. It is definitely
possible they will give their top prize to Pluralus and few would object
if they did.
That said I suspect they will
stay closer to the Emmys and give it to the big winner of 2025 The Pitt. Obviously
I could hardly argue against it.
Should Win: The Pitt.
Will Win: Pluralus/The Pitt
BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA
I will confess that there is a
part of me that wouldn't mind seeing Mark Ruffalo win for his superb
performance in Task. This is a superb category with no real bad choices
(as is often the case) However I think its safe to say that Noah Wylie wins
this in a walk for his masterful performance as Dr. Robby in The Pitt.
Should Win/Will Win: Wylie
BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Remember how Anna Sawai ran every
major Best Actress prize between the Emmys and the SAG Awards? This is the one
she lost. Even Kathy Bates seemed shocked when she won for Matlock. So
don't expect this one to according to plan.
Much as I'd like to see Carrie
Coon win for The Gilded Age I think I'm going to go with the heavy
favorite because she absolutely should have won for her work in Better Call
Saul. Rhea Seehorn will almost certainly win in this category for playing
the most unpleasant savior of humanity in Pluralus. And hell, maybe if
she loses this'll work for character building for Season 2.
Should Win: Coon.
Will Win: Seehorn.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
This is where I officially mark a
disagreement with those who are playing the odds. The assumption is Tramell
Tillman will take the Best Supporting Actor prize for Severance just as
he did the Emmys. But I've been here two years ago. Everyone thought Matthew
MacFayden was going to win her for playing Tom in the final season of Succession
and this was the only award he didn't win. Billy Crudup won his
second prize in this category in a foreshadowing of his eventual second Emmy in
2024. And here he is again.
Now in this case my personal
preference would be for Tom Pelphrey for his work in Task. He has a
decent history with the Critics Choice Awards, having been nominated for his
work in Ozark in 2021. I'm going out on a limb and saying Pelphrey will
win this one. That said, don't rule out Crudup making it a trifecta.
Should Win: Pelphrey.
Will Win: Crudup (?)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Oh this one is going to be
painful for me in particular. Here's Denee Benton for her incredibly
underappreciated work in The Gilded Age. Here's Skye P. Marshall back
for a second straight year for Matlock. Here's Allison Janney who
everyone thought was going to win in this category last year. And here's
Katherine LaNassa who deservedly won the Emmy for The Pitt.
My heart wants Marshall to win
because the Emmys have overlooked her already. My head says LaNassa will win
because she did at the Emmys and the Golden Globes inexplicably ignored her. I
will go with my head rather than my heart – though honestly my heart will be
just fine if LaNassa wins.
Should Win: Marshall.
Will Win: LaNassa.
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
The last two years the Critics
Choice have followed the Emmys, giving The Bear best comedy in 2024 and Hacks
in 2025. Now this year The Bear isn't here at all. The Studio did
win eleven Emmys but it is tied for fourth in nominations behind Nobody
Wants This, Hacks and Ghosts. Not a promising sign, particularly
when they were ignored for Supporting Actress
Personally I'd like to see Hacks
go back to back and it has a better history with the Critics Choice Awards.
But I will give The Studio the thinnest of edges though I'm not sure how
big a night it will have.
Should Win: Hacks.
Will Win: The Studio.
OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Easiest one of the night. Rogen
takes this one in large because the competition is not nearly as tough as it is
at either the Emmys or the Golden Globes. I love David Alan Grier and Ted
Danson, but they're not Martin Short or Steve Martin.
Should Win/Will Win: Rogen
BEST LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
First of all to Carrie Preston
and Elsbeth. You made the right call submitting the show as a comedy and
I hope that the Emmys will nominate it this time. But we all know who's going
to win and we're all fine with it.
Jean Smart is going to set a
record with this win in the short history of the Critics Choice awards. She
will win her fourth Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy award and her sixth
prize from this group all time. She won Outstanding Supporting Actress in a
Limited Series for Season 2 of Fargo, then won Best Supporting Actress
in a Drama for Watchmen (the writers hadn't deciding to submit it as a
limited series yet). In your face Julia Louis-Dreyfus! (Deb Vance would say
that. Jean Smart won't.)
Should Win/Will Win: Smart.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
This one can't follow the Emmy
script as Jeff Hiller's utterly delightful win for Somebody Somewhere took
place in the previous eligibility period. And this category has had its share
of surprises: just last year we saw Michael Urie surprise even himself for Shrinking
when he won.
Now personally I'd like to see it
go to Chris Perfetti who has not gotten nearly enough recognition for his work
on Abbott Elementary. But come on. Ike Barinholtz had this locked up.
It's not just that we all loved his work last year but we all want him to say:
"Thank you Sal Saperstein!" Other people may say it at the Golden
Globes but he's inexplicably not been nominated. So for him to say it at the
Critics Choice Awards, that's as good as it gets.
Should Win: Perfetti.
Will Win: Barinholtz
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A
COMEDY
I really want to say Hannah
Einbinder goes back to back in this category. But she doesn't have the best
track record here, considering she wasn't even nominated for Season 2. That being said the competition is much less
heavy then it was even last year so I think she'll matching to repeat. I'd like
to see Janelle James win but I can wait.
Should Win/Will Win: Einbinder.
Now to be clear I know that Adolescence
is going to run the table at the Critics Choice Awards. I'm not happy about
it. So for this group I'll be leaning in far more to what I want to win.
BEST LIMITED SERIES
I would really like to see All
Her Fault or Dying for Sex pull an upset, preferably the former one.
But I'll let Adolescence have this one and hope that some of the other
nominees for this year do win.
Should Win: All Her Fault.
Will Win: Adolescence.
BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV
MOVIE
I've seen Bryan Tyree Henry's
work in Dope Thief; I'm a huge admirer of Matthew Rhys and Michael
Shannon. I'd prefer Shannon in particular to win for Death By Lightning. I
think Graham wins this one easily but considering his victory was a shock three
months ago, this category has the potential for an upset.
Should Win: Shannon.
Will Win: Graham
BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED
SERIES/TV MOVIE
The only category Adolescence doesn't
have a nomination in and since Cristin Miloti won in this category last year,
it's wide open. So the question is, will the Critics Choice Awards honor the
past or the coming year? And there are some good choices from both.
Michelle Williams more than
deserved to win for Dying for Sex. Meghann Fahy's performance in Sirens
was the highlight of a top heavy cast. Snook was magnificent in All Her
Fault.
My personal preference would be
for Fahy mainly because Williams already has won from this group before for Fosse/Verdon.
But I think its going to go for Snook. She managed to win both Best Supporting
Actress and Best Actress for her work in Succession and this work is
just as impressive.
Should Win: Fahy.
Will Win: Snook.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED
SERIES/TV MOVIE
Okay this is the only award for Adolescence
I don't have any trouble with. Owen Cooper will obviously win Outstanding
Supporting Actor and as good as Michael Pena and Ashley Walters were, he more
than earned it.
Should Win/Will Win: Cooper.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
I'm not quite as confident for
Doherty as everyone else is. Great as her performance was Sophia Lillis was
masterful in All Her Fault and Julianne Moore was superb in Sirens. And
keep in mind supporting categories do have a habit of breaking off from the
favorites. Last year everyone thought Robert Downey Jr would win for The
Sympathizer; it went to Live Schreiber for The Perfect Couple. Two
years earlier not even Maria Bello thought she would win for Beef and she
did.
Don't rule out an upset by Lillis
in particular but I'm relative sure Doherty sails on the Adolescence tide.
Should Win: Lillis.
Will Win: Doherty.
Those are my predictions. Happy
if I'm right, happy if I'm wrong. I'll be back on Monday with my reactions to
both the awards show and the winners.
No comments:
Post a Comment