On Sunday night we will officially
reach the end of Phase One of the Emmy Watch for 2026 with the presentation of
the newly christened Actor Awards as SAG-AFTRA gives its yearly awards.
It's certain that even with the
presence of Kristin Bell there will be more of an air of melancholy over this
year's awards particularly given the recent passing in just the last two months
of several exceptional performances. This will be felt in TV awards as
Catherine O'Hara, nominated for her work just this past year for her work in The
Studio tragically passed away last month. Combined with the deaths just
this past few weeks of the iconic Robert Duvall and Eric Dane, who will within
less then two months be seen in one of his last performances in the third
season of Euphoria, expect the In Memoriam sequence this year to have a
sadder feeling.
Acknowledging this reality will be
tough to handle but I engage in my duty as a critic to try and predict this
year's winners in all major acting categories. I acknowledge my track record is
far from perfect, considering how shocking it was that Only Murders in the
Building was the big winner in comedy last year rather than Hacks. Still
this show, no matter what name the award has, does have the capacity for
surprise.
Here are my predictions.
OUTSTANDING ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY
SERIES
This is an easy one to predict even
before recent events. The Studio has already swept every major awards
show to this point and it was the heavy favorite to win in this category. With
the passing of O'Hara, it's now the sentimental favorite as well.
Should Win/Will Win: The Studio
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE
ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Again this one was a lock before. Seth
Rogen has already won every major award leading up to this. Look for him to
join such names as Jeremy Allan White and Jason Sudeikis to sweep all four
acting awards for television. Considering his triumph at the Emmys he will do
quite well.
Should Win/Will Win: Rogen
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE
ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Here we might very well see a change
in plans. I still think Jean Smart will end up winning in this category: just
as with the Emmys and the Critics Choice Awards she's won every year she's been
nominated. But we can't rule out the possibility for support for Catherine
O'Hara for what is now clearly her final performance for The Studio. Since
the other two awards are going to go to that series regardless, it might very
well pull a sweep. That said, I don't know when the voting ended in this
category.
Should Win: Smart.
Will Win: Smart/ O'Hara.
OUTSTANDING DRAMA ENSEMBLE
This one is easy. The Pitt has
already won every major award to this point in the drama category and its
absolutely going to follow the line this time. Combined with the fact its
second season has already debuted to record setting numbers for HBO Max it will
almost certainly be a valediction – and a sign for what is to come. With that
said The White Lotus did manage an upset in this category three years
ago for its second season – and it fits far more easily in the Drama category
this year.
I think The Pitt will prevail
but don't be stunned if The White Lotus pulls it out.
Should Win/Will Win: The Pitt
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE
ACTOR IN A DRAMA
This one is even easier. Noah Wyle has
already won every award in the book for the first season of The Pitt and
I suspect he's the frontrunner for Season 2. I'd really like to see Walton
Goggins or Sterling K. Brown win but Wyle has this locked up.
Should Win: Goggins.
Will Win: Wyle.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE
ACTOR IN A TV DRAMA
Even easier. Rhea Seehorn has already won
the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Awards over far tougher competition. If
Kathy Bates or Carrie Coon had been nominated I might hesitate. With them not
present watch Rhea Seehorn continue to her path to world domination for Pluribus.
Should Win/Will Win: Seehorn.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE
ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE/LIMITED SERIES
This could be trickier as for the
first time Stephen Graham and Owen Cooper are competing against each other for Adolescence.
Obviously they can't both win. And there is a possibility they may split the
vote. Cooper survived those vote splitting when he was up against Ashley
Walters but this is a tougher fight.
I think there is a chance Matthew
Rhys, who I honestly think was better, in The Beast of Me could slip
through. We have seen these things happen at the SAG Awards before. But I'll
give the barest of edges to Cooper as it will give him a chance to make
history.
Should Win: Rhys.
Will Win: Cooper.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE
ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE/LIMITED SERIES
All right. I'm not sure if Adolescence
can pull off the same trick here that it can with the previous category.
Yes Erin Doherty has won every award in the book to this point but she's going
up against two actresses who have already won in a category that is more in
favor of them than Doherty. Her role was a supporting one where as Sarah Snook
and Michelle Williams each have a trophy for their work earlier this year. And
while an argument could be Cooper was a lead performance its harder to argue this
for Doherty. (Again I really think the Actors should expand to supporting
performances across the board.)
My personal pick is Snook who has the
benefit of a more recent show. I think Doherty has a small edge but as with
Cooper its just not as big as before.
Should Win: Snook.
Will Win: Snook/Doherty.
OUTSTANDING ACTION PERFORMANCE BY AN
ENSEMBLE
This one is trickier considering the
pedigree of the nominees. I'm inclined to think Last of Us should win
this one but I think it'll go Stranger Things. This show has a better
record with the Actors going back to its win for Best Ensemble in a Drama in
2017. Winning here would close the circle and I know awards shows like that.
Should Win: The Last of Us.
Will Win: Stranger Things.
This weekend will be a busy one for
award watchers as the Image Awards will be airing a condensed version of their
show tomorrow. I'll be back Monday with the official results of the Actors to
conclude Phase One. Later this week I'll give an official report on all of the
other awards show that affect TV that are part of Phase Two, from the Images to
the various guild awards.
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