My Picks for the Critics Choice Awards: Part 1, Drama

If you were waiting to see my reactions to this year's Golden Globes, for a change I don't have one. That's because this was one of the rare occasions that the predictions I hoped for actually came to pass., with the exception of Maggie Gyllenhaal losing out to Elisabeth Moss (which frankly, everyone else probably saw coming through the Lincoln Tunnel.) Mostly, I was gratified by the wins, especially in the Best Comedy category when Marvelous Mrs. Maisel finally earned recognition for the perfect Palladino's. I enjoyed their speech, nearly as much as I have the series. I would've liked to have seen Shailene Woodley win, but mostly I was happy.

But the main reason I won't dwell on it is because I barely have time to take a breath before we have to deal with my favorite award show of the year: the Broadcast Critics Choice. Even though they've been giving awards for nearly twenty years, and have been on TV for nearly a decade, my guess is, given how low the ratings have been, the average viewer hasn't heard of them. They should. Not only do they, when they are giving out awards for movies, choose to honor films that people have actually heard of, they also in their TV awards, tend to recognize series the average viewer wouldn't have. This may seem like something of a contradiction, but the fact is, they've been ahead of the curve when it came to series like The Americans, Orange is the New Black, Community, and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. They've also been willing to recognize undervalued gems like Rectify, UnReal, Jane the Virgin, and this year, The Good Fight, and The Good Place.  And given that over the last few years in particular, the Emmys have been recognizing their picks in bunches, one would do well to see who they end up picking.

Trying to handicap them is another thing altogether. In addition to being willing to pick some of the more obscure horses, they're perhaps the only awards show I know that is willing to recognize ties. But trying to figure it out has always been part of the fun, at least for me. So, here are my hopes, and I'll be more than delighted to be proven wrong (or right).

BEST DRAMA

Given the overwhelms trends, it would seem like the inevitable pick would be Handmaid's Tale. But you can never be quite sure what the Critics will do, especially considering that Game of Thrones is in the mix. Probably Handmaid's will prevail, but don't rule out an upset by This is Us.

Should Win: This is Us.

Will Win: The Handmaid's Tale

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA

Sterling Brown's already won the Emmy and the Golden Globe for his brilliant work on This is Us. But since you can never expect this award series to go in the same direction, I'm more inclined to think it will go to Bob Odenkirk for Better Call Saul. He's already won the prize the two previous times he's been eligible, and the critics have always like Breaking Bad and its spinoff even more than the Emmys have. There  are a bunch of good choices in this category, so there really aren't any losers.

Should Win: Brown.

Will Win: Odenkirk.

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA

Again, you'd expect this to go to Elisabeth Moss, and she might be able to win. But I'm much more inclined to think that the Critics will go for Tatiana Maslany for her superb work on Orphan Black. They recognized her for two straight years before the Emmys even nominated her, and this is their final chance to do so.  Personally, I'd prefer to see someone like Christine Baranski prevail, but I'd be fine with Maslany being honored for her great performance(s).

Should Win: Baranski.

Will Win: Maslany.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA

This should be interesting because it's the first category where we have no clear front runner based on any previous award show. This is wide open. My personal preference would be for Asia Dillon whose work on Billions is superb, and deserves some kind of recognition, even before you consider the nature of their character. I'm also partial to Delroy Lindo, whose work on The Good Fight was rather remarkable.

If I had to give one candidate the barest of edges, I give it to David Harbour, the only actor in the category to receive multiple nominations for his work on Stranger Things. He might prevail, but you can never be sure in this category with these awards.

Should Win: Dillon.

Will Win: Harbour (?)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA

There is a slight edge to Ann Dowd for her performance in The Handmaid's Tale, which got her an Emmy last year. She might well prevail her, but considering she lost at the Golden Globes, one can't be sure.. Still, I'm inclined to think the oft overlooked Chrissy Metz might earn a long overdue trophy for her work on This is Us.. Then again, this category has seen at three ties in its brief existence. Never rule that out.

Should Win: Metz.

Will Win: Dowd (?)