Before I begin my
predictions for the TV awards for the Golden Globes, let’s address what
everyone else is thinking. On Tuesday night, will everybody just pretend that
everything is normal? Is E! going to spend hours covering the red carpet
talking about what everyone’s wearing before starting to talk to every
celebrity who shows up? Will Jerrod Carmichael, this year’s emcee, do what NBC
tells him to do and spend three hours talking about all the nominated shows and
films? Will the winners in their acceptance speeches dutifully thank the
Hollywood Foreign Press like every other year?
Or will everybody
not pretend that this is normal? Is someone going to actually comment on who is
and isn’t showing up this year? Will Carmichael make a joke about how glad he
is to not see Brendan Fraser? Will someone in their speech – maybe Eddie Murphy
or Ryan Murphy who are accepting lifetime achievement awards – actually mention
that they think the Globes have learned their lesson?
There is a part
of me that wishes that Joan Rivers was still alive or that Ricky Gervais was
hosting. Because neither would have any problem putting the HFPA’s collective ass
in a sling. None of them would mind making everybody feel awkward for being
there; they did that for a living. And given that NBC’s treatment of the Golden
Globes based on the past year was to essentially give them a slap on the wrist
and then say all is forgiven, it’s hard not to think the corporate overlords
deserve to get stung too.
Oh, don’t get me
wrong. The nominees for television generally reflect the high quality of the
series in 2022. And I’m more than overjoyed that after nearly a decade of my
urging them every year to do something about the mess that was their Supporting
Awards, they finally decided to do something about it this year,
particularly when so many other awards shows are shrinking the number of categories
they give. I’ll even acknowledge that
after all of this mess, I want to see Bob Odenkirk and Sheryl Lee Ralph accept
prizes if they win them. (We will get to that when this rant is over.) But for
all of those people who believe that Hollywood deals with its problems by
making the illusion of systemic change rather than actual change, I’m
pretty sure the fact that the Golden Globes are being broadcast in the first
place isn’t going to change anybody’s mind in that regard. It hasn’t changed mine.
So, now that I’ve
vented, I will try to give my usual even handed prediction of this year’s
Golden Globes in television. And the fact is, with only a few exceptions, most
of which reflect my personal prejudices rather than anything else, the HFPA this
year more than lived up to the high standards it has shown throughout the era
of Peak TV as far as nominations. It is likely that they will do the same when
it comes to the actual awards.
I will start, as
I inevitably do, with Drama.
OUTSTANDING DRAMA
SERIES
I realize the
Golden Globes has a habit for recognizing the most talked about series of 2022
and for that reason it might well go for House of The Dragon. But considering
it only received one other nomination and the HFPA never really cared much for Game
of Thrones (another reason I respect them) I don’t think they will this
year. The other clear frontrunner is The Crown, which leads all dramas
with four nominations and did dominate the awards the last year it was on the
air.
But I’m going to
make a different prediction based on history. The Golden Globes spent the
better part of Breaking Bad’s run fundamentally ignoring it until the
final season, when it took Best Drama and trophies for Bryan Cranston and Aaron
Paul. I don’t think its beyond the pale to think that they’ll have a similar
reckoning for Better Call Saul, considering they’ve treated it just as
poorly over its run and this is their last chance to do so. I admit they might
be willing to do the same for Ozark but since that show has gone unrecognized,
I’m going to lean towards Saul.
Should Win: Better
Call Saul.
Will Win: The
Crown/Better Call Saul.
OUTSTANDING LEAD
ACTOR IN A DRAMA
This is one of
the easier calls of the night, even though it shouldn’t be. Jeff Bridges did
some of his best work in The Old Man, and given everything he went through
to get there, it’s hard to argue he hasn’t earned it. Kevin Costner is an
industry veteran, and Yellowstone has basically been ignored by every
major awards show. Adam Scott is one of my favorite actors of all time, and his
work in Severance is remarkable.
But let’s not kid
ourselves. Bob Odenkirk is going to start making his victory lap run towards
the Emmys on Tuesday. Like all of the actors I’ve listed, he’s an industry
veteran. He’s been playing one of the most iconic characters in television
history for a decade on two extraordinary series with no recognition from almost
any awards show (except you know, my fellow critics) and oh yeah, he almost died
while filming the final season. Seriously, if he doesn’t take the prize
this year, that’s a crime that the HFPA will need to Call Saul to get
them out of.
Should Win/Will
Win: Odenkirk.
OUTSTANDING LEAD
ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Not going to lie,
I’m pretty sure I know who the winner will be, but I’m not happy about it. It
seems inevitable that Zendaya will end up taking another Best Actress prize for
her work in Euphoria. That said, you can never be sure with the Golden
Globes. They’ve given the Best Actress prize to one of the leads in The
Crown the last two years it was eligible and three times in four of its
seasons. Considering that the previous two actresses who played Elizabeth have
triumphed in this category, one could very well see Imelda Staunton pulling it
out this year. (The Globes do owe her for denying her the Best Actress prize
for Vera Drake nearly twenty years ago.) And they could very well decide
to give it to Laura Linney, who has a pretty good track record here. Best Drama
is the only category she hasn’t won Lead Actress for; they might complete the
set. Still, I think Zendaya will pull it out. I hope I’m wrong.
Should Win: Staunton.
Will Win: Zendaya
(sigh).
Now, on to Comedy/Musical
OUTSTANDING
COMEDY/MUSICAL
This is even
easier to predict. Much as I’d like to see Only Murders in the Building prevail,
this is going to go to Abbott Elementary in a walk. With five
nominations, it’s the most nominated series in any category. It’s been winning awards
right and left for the last five months (and its going to win more the next few
weeks), and let’s face it, for an awards show accused of having a diversity
problem, you want to give the award to the most diverse show here. And
it’s a masterpiece if that counts for anything.
Should Win/Will
Win: Abbott Elementary
OUTSTANDING LEAD
ACTOR IN A COMEDY/MUSICAL
Much as I really
want to see Bill Hader win in this category (he seems to have won every prize
in the book but the Golden Globe for Barry) the betting is on
Jeremy Allan White. And having seen five episodes of The Bear, I can’t
say I blame them. White has always been an extraordinary actor but his work as
Carmy, the very troubled sous chef desperately trying to make his dead brother’s
nearly broke restaurant a success, is at another level. Forget all of the
muscle and bulking up he did for this role; on a purely emotional level White’s
work is nearly the equal of Hader’s. He’s not as obviously broken as Barry is,
but he’s not doing a very good job of hiding it. Throw in the fact that White
was ignored by every critical organization for his brilliant work on Shameless,
and I don’t have a problem with him taking the prize.
Should Win: Hader.
Will Win: White.
OUTSTANDING LEAD
ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
There are some of
my colleagues who think this category is much closer than it actually should
be. A lot of them do think that Jenna Ortega deserves to win for her work on
Netflix’s Wednesday. Not having seen the series yet, I can’t pretend
this isn’t outside the Golden Globes oeuvre. Others are far more inclined to
see Jean Smart prevail yet again for her work on Hacks and having seen
Smart’s work on Season 2, I can’t even fake a lie saying she’s unworthy
because, well, it was incredible. Some are even willing to say that there might
be a tie.
But for all that,
I still think that Quinta Brunson is going to prevail in this category. To
argue that somehow Brunson isn’t the hippest thing around because Wednesday debuted
a few months ago instead of last year strikes me as utterly ludicrous.
Considering that Abbott is likely to do very well at the Golden Globes
this year, ignoring Brunson for Best Actress seems silly. And considering that
she did lose to Smart at the Emmys – well, that was a fair fight, but I know
the Golden Globes well enough to know that redressing the Emmys losses is one
of the things they actually do still do well. (Witness giving Hacks Best
Comedy last year – although no one actually did.)
Should Win:
Brunson.
Will Win: Brunson/Smart.
This is starting
to get a little lengthy. Tomorrow I’ll handle Movie/Limited Series as well as the
brand new Supporting Actor and Actress awards (squee!)
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