With Slightly More Enthusiasm, I Try To Predict This Years' Critics Choice Awards For TV, Part 2: Outstanding Comedy Awards

 

Well, now the Golden Globes have taken place and I’m not inclined to alter my predictions for Drama much as a result.  Could House of the Dragon pull off an upset? It’s conceivable considering the Critics Choice have been friendlier to Game of Thrones then the HCA were. However, I doubt it considering that the Critics have always like Saul more (The HCA made that very clear in August.) Could Odenkirk end up being beaten by Kevin Costner? Possible, but unlikely Yellowstone doesn’t have the same track record.  Julia Garner’s chances over Rhea Seehorn have gone up a notch, I’ll admit, and we can’t now rule out Coolidge prevailing either. I still think Seehorn has the edge though. Zendaya’s chances are, if anything, better than they were before I began my predictions (sigh). And Supporting Actor remains wide open, though I could now see Matt Smith coming out ahead.

All right, let’s move on to comedy and these predictions have been affected more by the Globes slightly.

BEST COMEDY SERIES

Let’s not kid ourselves: Abbott Elementary was the odds-on favorite before Tuesday night considering it has won every award in the books but the Emmys to this point. It’s dominance at the Golden Globes on Tuesday just put away any doubt that there would be any chance that Reservation Dogs or The Bear would manage an upset. Considering how much the world now seems to justifiably love this incredible comedy series and everyone connected with it, I don’t even need to make an argument for why it will win.  As far as I’m concerned this is the next steps towards its march towards Emmy domination, and everybody will be happy because of it.

Should Win/Will Win: Abbott Elementary.

 

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY

I think it is inevitable whose going to win here. Steve Martin and Bill Hader are extraordinary in their roles, no one would deny it, and D’Pharoah  Woon-a-Tai has demonstrated that he’s a superstar in the making. But let’s not kid ourselves, for all the caliber of the nominated performers, this is a weaker field than the one that Jeremy Allan White managed to triumph in on Tuesday for his exceptional work on The Bear.  And while I still would like to see Hader win a major prize for his extraordinary work on Barry, I can’t come up with a convincing counter-argument why White doesn’t deserve it. I’ve seen the first five episodes of his work on the show, and its extraordinary. He spent the better part of a decade being shafted by every other awards show for his overlooked work on Shameless. And the fact that he was able to bring humor out of much of the action on the series – even though he was at a level as traumatized as Barry Bloch – is a remarkable achievement. I will be pulling for Hader, but I expect White to win, and when he does, I’ll just say: “Good job, chef.”

Should Win: Hader/White.

Will Win: White.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

Yes, I know Christina Applegate has earned this award and I won’t deny there’s a possibility she’ll prevail here.  But barring an atomic upset, this one is going to Quinta Brunson no question.

It was inevitable in my opinion that Brunson was going to win at the Globes even though the field was incredibly tough. If anything this field is tougher than the Globes, in addition to the presence of Jean Smart and Kaley Cuoco, Applegate and Devery Jacobs did some truly remarkable work last year.  But there’s nothing that can convince me that Brunson won’t prevail here just as easily. No one will deny what a genuine force she is or what she’s accomplished. The only one who still seems surprised at her winning everything in sight is apparently Brunson.  And honestly, I hope it never gets old about it.

Should Win/Will Win: Brunson.

 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY

Right now the betting is that Leslie Jordan will win posthumously for his work in Call Me Kat.  Considering the tragedy of his passing, its hard not to understand the sentimentality or the logic behind it. But the thing is, sentimentality has had less and less to do with awards in the last several years. No group seems willing to give awards to people who have been waiting to be rewarded for a long time, and this is just as true for television. Everyone was sure Michael K. Williams was going to get a posthumous Emmy and everyone was stunned by Tobias Menzies won; and there was a far better reason to give it to Williams than there is to Jordan. So I’m going to go on a limb and assume the Critics’ Choice, which to this point has not been particularly sentimental, will not do so here.

In my opinion, the heavy favorites in this category are Henry Winkler for Barry and Tyler James Williams for Abbott Elementary, with Chris Perfetti lurking as a dark horse. Williams managed what has to have been considered one of the Globes major upsets on Tuesday; Winkler prevailed at the HCA this summer and has already won one prize for this role from the Critics Choice.  Winkler managed strong drama and great laughter in his role; Williams has managed to do wonders with both awkward talk and glances to the camera. It’s a tough call, and I don’t rule out there may be a tie here. I give the narrowest of edges to Williams while not eliminating Winkler as a possibility.

Should Win: Winkler.

Will Win: Winkler/Williams

 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

This is the only award the Golden Globes have given us no actual guidance in; Sheryl Lee Ralph was the heavy favorite but ended up losing to Julia Garner.  Now that we are in an all comedy category, let’s take a real look at it. I don’t think either Marcia Gay Harden or Annie Potts have a real chance here. I would like to see Ayo Edebiri or Pauline Alexis win for their work on The Bear and Reservation Dogs, respectively and I think there’s a chance that in the future both may end up doing so. That said, I’m inclined to think this will come down to Janelle James or Ralph.

Ralph is the likely favorite given how much the Emmys loved her, but I can’t rule out the possibility James will end up taking home the prize. After all, she managed a win in this same category from the HCA just this summer and anyone who has watched her performance as Ava wouldn’t dare debate that it is far more hysterical than Ralph. (Ralph’s humor is slightly more dignified). Honestly, I think either of these extraordinary talents has a good chance of prevailing Sunday night, and if either of them win I will be perfectly content.  My personal preference is James in this case, but neither one is a bad choice, any more than any of the other nominees.

Should Win: James.

Will Win: James/Ralph.

 

Tomorrow I wrap things up with Limited Series, TV Movie et al. And I have to say this time the Golden Globes will offer no real guidance as to what’s going to end up winning.