All right. Let’s be
clear. I do not have any insight as to what’s going to win in most of the
categories. Considering that The White Lotus was inexplicably regulated
to Drama (why?) and that most of the nominated series by the Golden Globes (Black
Bird and Monster) were ignored for Best Limited Series, I don’t have
a clear picture what’s going to win in most of the categories and I’m quite
sure most of the handicappers are similarly clueless. (And if you believe you
know what they’re doing, last week they were certain Severance was going
to be the biggest winner in Drama for The Golden Globes.)
So here I am, making
educated if not exactly wild guesses as to what I think will be picked. I’ll
lean somewhat more towards hope.
BEST LIMITED SERIES
Well, I know what I
want to win and that’s Gaslit. Considering that is the most nominated of
all the limited series, you’d think that would be enough, but we all know it
never is. My fellow critics at the HCA were willing to give it five nominations
but basically shut it out otherwise. So I’ll let it go.
My other choice if I
had one would be The Dropout, mostly because it was the other major
limited series in my top ten list last year. Under the Banner of Heaven and
Station Eleven were basically ignored by the Emmys last year, not enough
people have heard of The Offer or The Girl From Plainville, and I
just can’t see the Critics voting for Pam and Tommy. So by default, I’m
going to say they’ll go to The Dropout.
Should Win: Gaslit.
Will Win: The
Dropout.
BEST ACTOR IN A
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
I think I have to
work backwards here. Samuel L. Jackson and Ben Whishaw’s projects didn’t get
enough buzz at the time. Daniel Radcliffe and Ben Foster are viable contenders,
but it’s an awfully long time since the star of a TV movie has won anyone of
these awards. I think it comes down to Sebastian Stan for Pam and Tommy or
Andrew Garfield for Under the Banner of Heaven, the only two actors from
last year who were nominated for either Emmys or Golden Globes.
Garfield is
essentially my choice, in so far as I just don’t want to give anything to Pam
and Tommy. I’ll let Garfield have it and hope the Emmy race next year will
start with Michael Shannon or Steve Carell, two actors in projects I actually
respect.
Should Win: Garfield.
Will Win: ????
BEST ACTRESS IN A
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
This one is easier to
predict though part of me does hope that the Critics do go in a different
direction. Part of me would really like to see Julia Roberts or Michelle
Pfeiffer up there. Considering that Roberts being overlooked by the Emmys in favor
of Lily James or Julia Garner (who are both here, but not at the cost of
Roberts) was something I couldn’t forgive at the time, I’d like to see her prevail.
But there’s nothing
that will stop the force of nature that is Amanda Seyfried for The Dropout. This
was one of the great master classes in acting last year, and Seyfried deserves
all the trophies she can get for it. She is the only winner from the Golden
Globes that I would have no problem repeating.
Should Win: Roberts/Seyfried.
Will Win: Seyfried.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE
With the sole
exception of Matthew Goode, I think all of the nominees in this category deserve
to win. My personal preference would be for Shea Whigham, whose work as Gordon
Liddy was one of the great performances of 2022, but the realist in me thinks
its unlikely. My next choice would be Domhnall Gleason for The Patient, but
considering the series received no other nominations it’s unlikely.
I think this will
come down to one of the two nominees from Black Bird: Paul Walter Hauser
and the late Ray Liotta. Liotta is, for obvious reasons, the more sentimental
choice and his performance was superb and more deserving of recognition than
Leslie Jordan. That said, given Hauser’s incredible work along with his triumph
at the Globes, I’m inclined to think he’ll prevail. Whigham has a chance for
being the only actor whose series was nominated, but otherwise it will almost certainly
go to Hauser.
Should Win: Whigham.
Will Win: Hauser.
BEST SUPPORTING
ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE
Betty Gilpin and Juno
Temple are the only actresses in this category whose series were also nominated
for Best Limited Series. Under other circumstances that might work for them but
considering both shows were from last year and never got credit by the Emmys, I
don’t think either has a realistic chance, which is a pity because both are
talents long overdue recognition from awards show like this.
I’m inclined to think
that the Critics Choice will look to the future, and this comes down to one of
two choices from the Globes: Niecy Nash-Betts for Monster and Claire
Danes for Fleishman is in Trouble. Danes’ project is less controversial;
Nash-Betts is more deserving of recognition. I will give the barest of edges to
Nash-Betts because I’m inclined to think she is more entitled to it, and let’s
face it: this is basically a consolation prize as Jennifer Coolidge continues
her unabated march to a second consecutive Emmy in this category this fall.
Should Win: Gilpin.
Will: Nash-Betts.
The rest of the winners
will most likely be dealt with in pre-taped announcements than actual
presentations. But for the record, I want to see Ray Donovan: The Movie prevail
in Best TV Movie, but I expect The Survivor o. My guess is Pachinko will
win Best Foreign Language series, though theyre might be room for 1899. I’m
inclined to see Bob’s Burgers prevail in Animated series, and I want to
see Seth Meyers or Samantha Bee win for Variety-Talk but expect to see John
Oliver prevail.
I’ll be back on
Monday with the results. I expect to be more happy with the winners than almost
any other group this year (you know, except the HCA.) I’ll deal with some of
the other major awards groups in the next week or so, considering I have a
little more time with them.
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