Friday, January 13, 2023

With Slightly More Enthusiasm, I Try To Predict The Critics Choice Awards for TV, Conclusion: Outstanding Limited Series Et Al

 

All right. Let’s be clear. I do not have any insight as to what’s going to win in most of the categories. Considering that The White Lotus was inexplicably regulated to Drama (why?) and that most of the nominated series by the Golden Globes (Black Bird and Monster) were ignored for Best Limited Series, I don’t have a clear picture what’s going to win in most of the categories and I’m quite sure most of the handicappers are similarly clueless. (And if you believe you know what they’re doing, last week they were certain Severance was going to be the biggest winner in Drama for The Golden Globes.)

So here I am, making educated if not exactly wild guesses as to what I think will be picked. I’ll lean somewhat more towards hope.

 

BEST LIMITED SERIES

Well, I know what I want to win and that’s Gaslit. Considering that is the most nominated of all the limited series, you’d think that would be enough, but we all know it never is. My fellow critics at the HCA were willing to give it five nominations but basically shut it out otherwise. So I’ll let it go.

My other choice if I had one would be The Dropout, mostly because it was the other major limited series in my top ten list last year. Under the Banner of Heaven and Station Eleven were basically ignored by the Emmys last year, not enough people have heard of The Offer or The Girl From Plainville, and I just can’t see the Critics voting for Pam and Tommy. So by default, I’m going to say they’ll go to The Dropout.

Should Win: Gaslit.

Will Win: The Dropout.

 

BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

I think I have to work backwards here. Samuel L. Jackson and Ben Whishaw’s projects didn’t get enough buzz at the time. Daniel Radcliffe and Ben Foster are viable contenders, but it’s an awfully long time since the star of a TV movie has won anyone of these awards. I think it comes down to Sebastian Stan for Pam and Tommy or Andrew Garfield for Under the Banner of Heaven, the only two actors from last year who were nominated for either Emmys or Golden Globes.

Garfield is essentially my choice, in so far as I just don’t want to give anything to Pam and Tommy. I’ll let Garfield have it and hope the Emmy race next year will start with Michael Shannon or Steve Carell, two actors in projects I actually respect.

Should Win: Garfield.

Will Win: ????

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

This one is easier to predict though part of me does hope that the Critics do go in a different direction. Part of me would really like to see Julia Roberts or Michelle Pfeiffer up there. Considering that Roberts being overlooked by the Emmys in favor of Lily James or Julia Garner (who are both here, but not at the cost of Roberts) was something I couldn’t forgive at the time, I’d like to see her prevail.

But there’s nothing that will stop the force of nature that is Amanda Seyfried for The Dropout. This was one of the great master classes in acting last year, and Seyfried deserves all the trophies she can get for it. She is the only winner from the Golden Globes that I would have no problem repeating.

Should Win: Roberts/Seyfried.

Will Win: Seyfried.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

With the sole exception of Matthew Goode, I think all of the nominees in this category deserve to win. My personal preference would be for Shea Whigham, whose work as Gordon Liddy was one of the great performances of 2022, but the realist in me thinks its unlikely. My next choice would be Domhnall Gleason for The Patient, but considering the series received no other nominations it’s unlikely.

I think this will come down to one of the two nominees from Black Bird: Paul Walter Hauser and the late Ray Liotta. Liotta is, for obvious reasons, the more sentimental choice and his performance was superb and more deserving of recognition than Leslie Jordan. That said, given Hauser’s incredible work along with his triumph at the Globes, I’m inclined to think he’ll prevail. Whigham has a chance for being the only actor whose series was nominated, but otherwise it will almost certainly go to Hauser.

Should Win: Whigham.

Will Win: Hauser.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Betty Gilpin and Juno Temple are the only actresses in this category whose series were also nominated for Best Limited Series. Under other circumstances that might work for them but considering both shows were from last year and never got credit by the Emmys, I don’t think either has a realistic chance, which is a pity because both are talents long overdue recognition from awards show like this.

I’m inclined to think that the Critics Choice will look to the future, and this comes down to one of two choices from the Globes: Niecy Nash-Betts for Monster and Claire Danes for Fleishman is in Trouble. Danes’ project is less controversial; Nash-Betts is more deserving of recognition. I will give the barest of edges to Nash-Betts because I’m inclined to think she is more entitled to it, and let’s face it: this is basically a consolation prize as Jennifer Coolidge continues her unabated march to a second consecutive Emmy in this category this fall.

Should Win: Gilpin.

Will: Nash-Betts.

 

The rest of the winners will most likely be dealt with in pre-taped announcements than actual presentations. But for the record, I want to see Ray Donovan: The Movie prevail in Best TV Movie, but I expect The Survivor o. My guess is Pachinko will win Best Foreign Language series, though theyre might be room for 1899. I’m inclined to see Bob’s Burgers prevail in Animated series, and I want to see Seth Meyers or Samantha Bee win for Variety-Talk but expect to see John Oliver prevail.

I’ll be back on Monday with the results. I expect to be more happy with the winners than almost any other group this year (you know, except the HCA.) I’ll deal with some of the other major awards groups in the next week or so, considering I have a little more time with them.

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