Before we get
started in earnest on the third and final week of my predictions, two personal
observations. Aside from the now standard complaint that the Emmys has to start
nominated more than five contenders in the majority of these categories, this
is by far the best field of contenders in Best Limited Series since, in my
opinion, the era of Peak Limited Series began back in 2016. Even with the
reclassification of Shogun in the Drama category the five leading
contenders as well as the majority of the nominated performers are among the
best I’ve ever seen in my history of reviewing. The Emmys will obviously really
need to revisit this in the following year but aside from my prejudice to one
of the major contenders I can’t fault almost any of the nominated series or
actors. And for me that’s nearly unheard of.
So here are my
predictions starting at the top.
OUTSTANDING LIMITED
SERIES
Baby Reindeer (Netflix).
Odds: 31-10. Pro: This
is one of the most revered productions of all of 2024, perhaps second only to Shogun.
It has already taken the Television Critics Association prize for Best
Limited Series and from the moment Shogun decided to contend in Best
Drama has become the unquestioned frontrunner. With good reason. Richard Gadd
has created one of the most stunning, human and humorous – yes, humorous – TV events of the year based on an experience
which he has written and bravely starred in. I’ve already written an incredible
among about this work of TV and it is one that I personally relate to and has
the same ability to find common ground that the phenomena Beef did last
year. Gadd puts himself at the center of an only slightly fictionalized series
of events that befell him when he was working in a pub that led to him becoming
acquainted, then befriending a convicted stalker who over the course of a short
time became determined to destroy his life. He does so revealing a dark story
of a horrible sexual experience that led to his befriending her, and then a
narrative on sexuality that is one of the bravest things in a year where
sexuality was at the center of limited series in a way it hasn’t been before.
And it ends on a note of despair for all involved. This is one of the phenomena
of 2024. It deserves to win everything it gets. Con: Almost the moment
it premiered there has been a series of controversies involving the real-life
subjects of the story as well as potential lawsuits and (perhaps inevitably)
online stalking of the people at the center.) That could very well work against
it.
Fargo (FX). Odds:
9-2. Pro: Nearly
four years after what we were told was going to be the final season Noah Hawley
brought us back to the world of criminals and lawmen he has inhabited so
brilliantly for more than a decade. This time he came far closer to the
original source material then ever before (we could count all the Easter eggs)
but added newer and more wonderful wrinkles. We followed the story of Dot, a
young Minnesota housewife who escapes an abduction that reveals the story of a
North Dakota sheriff who is there to be the difference between ‘what is right
and what is wrong’, a group of good-hearted lawmen and very corrupt ones, a five-hundred
year old soul-eater, and the head of one of the biggest debt collection
agencies in America plus Dave Foley with an eyepatch. Essentially set in current
times Hawley doesn’t even have to try to draw parallels with today’s society
the way he has before – the themes of toxic masculinity, grooming, wealth and
poverty were put amidst series where more than ever, the good ending up paying
as much as the bad. The series dominated the Golden Globe and Critics Choice
nominations, though they were buried by Beef. After a polarizing fourth
season, it was good to be back in the world of Minnesota nice. Con: Fargo
has never done as well in the Emmys as it immense quality would suggest (as
I said, Peak Limited Series) and of the nominees in this category, it stretches
back the farthest in premiere date. I have
a feeling it’s not going to prevail.
Lessons in
Chemistry (Apple
TV) Odds: 9-2. Pro: This
adaptation of Bonnie Garrus’s best-seller was one of the most incredible works
of 2023 (even though I only finished it last week). Using the story of
Elizabeth Zott, a 1950s scientist whose brilliant mind is frozen because of the
sexism of the era, the writers tell a story of some of the deepest themes –
science and faith, racism and sexism, finding family when you don’t expect it,
realizing that community is what you build and showing how relationships can be
spinning around you without you knowing them. It does so against the world of
early television, racism seen through the world of freeways and some of the
most inventive storytelling in this category (one episode took place entirely
from the perspective of Elizabeth’s dog) Brie Larson led a cast of incredible
performers to show a world that is in the relative past and more relevant then
ever. Lessons was one of the major contenders for every award show at
the end of 2023 and leading up to the nominations. It has already won awards
for direction and music. In a normal year, it would be a heavy front-runner. Con:
Even before Shogun dropped out, this was always going to be a difficult
year for Lessons. The contenders were among the most formidably acted, written
and imaginatively framed works of 2024. This is the most traditional (if such a
word could apply) nominee in the category/
Ripley (Netflix) Odds:
9-2. Pro: I
have seen my share of mystery series and I genuinely didn’t think I was capable
of being surprised by it anymore. Believe it or not, that’s exactly what Ripley
did. Going off one of the most famous villains in the history of fiction Steven
Zaillian took an incredibly different approach. In a world where dialogue seems
to matter more than anything he would let Andrew Scott’s Tom be incredible by
what he doesn’t say. How much of the limited series was silent will have to be
calculated but it’s clear this one has the least dialogue, letting so much of
what works be revealed by what Ripley says – or doesn’t say – when his lies
called on. And in two masterworks we see Tom go through the kinds of sequence
most mystery tend to just ignore – watching him cover up the murder in two
bravura sequence in two different episodes. In the first there is no dialogue
at all, in the second, the suspense involves an elevator that hasn’t functioned
until now and countless shots of a cat
that seem pointless – until the last minute. This is by far the best director
and technical masterpiece in the category, perhaps in all of 2024. Zaillian and
Scott have taken a story that has been remade in five movies to date and turned
into something unique. Never have I
hoped more for a second season. Con: The biggest problem Ripley has
is the other nominee from Netflix in this category which deals with
similar themes when it comes to both to darkness and sexual ambiguity. It will
be tough for Ripley to overcome it.
True Detective (HBO) Odds:
4-1. Pro: This
was, as my readers well know, the only
nominee in this category I couldn’t willingly endorse in my original
nominations. I knew Night Country was going to be a major contender but
after two episodes I found it somehow even more pretentious then the previous
versions and just threw up my hands. That doesn’t mean it isn’t more than deserving
to win. It’s been a decade since the first season debuted and due to a horrible
misclassification of it in the Best Drama category (why HBO?) it never got the
Emmys it should have. Now a full decade later, completely reinvented with two
brilliant female leads and an extraordinary female showrunner it has returned True
Detectives to the front of the Emmy standings since the first season. It is
led by a towering cast of performers from Jodie Foster and Kali Reis to
exceptional character actors like Christopher Eccleston and John Hawkes. It
moves away from the desert and sunny landscapes into the bitter cold of the
Arctic circle. And it is written and directed by Issa Lopez who has quickly
become one of the great talents in television. It has been picking up nominations
right and left and is now the second show. It’s overdue. Con: From the
moment it debuted Night Country was somehow more polarizing because of
all of the Easter eggs that were thrown in from Season 1 that made many wonder
about its connection to the first season. (There were none.) Nic Pollozatto,
the now departed showrunner, spent a fair amount of time denouncing this as
part of his universe. And the usual complaints about every version –
particularly the supernatural overtones that never pay out – were here in
force. Some of the cast may win Emmys; the show’s chances are still low.
Predictions: While I have a
soft spot in my heart for Ripley, I suspect Baby Reindeer will
win this easily and it deserves too.
Tomorrow I deal
with Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series. I will have a blast with this
one.
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