For the most
diverse collection of Emmy nominees in history, we have saved the best for the
last. For the first time perhaps in this history of any awards show, two
indigenous nominees are competing against each other. We also feature what is
only the second transgender performer to be nominated in Emmys history. Aja
Naomi King’s nomination for her incredible work seems almost banal by
comparison.
We also feature
some of the greatest array for performances in this category when it comes to
the type of woman in these categories. And it’s worth noting that this
particular category has led the way with some of the most prominent wins for both
diversity and exceptionally strong performances: Niecy Nash-Betts’ win earlier
this year was the fourth time in the last eight years an African-American
actress has won in this category. And we have no real obvious front-runner.
So once more
into the breach.
Dakota Fanning,
Ripley. For Playing: Marge, an American expatriate in a
relationship with Dickie Greenleaf. Odds: 7-1. Pro: Fanning had to
bigger shoes to fill that Andrew Scott; her most well-known predecessor in this
category was Gwynneth Paltrow. But Fanning had a different and more fascinating
spin on this in the film. Her Marge, much like Dickie was something of a failure
at her work, a horrible author whose affection for Dickie was always greater
than his. As we saw in the letters she wrote ‘Dickie’ she was as good a liar as
Tom was, at least to herself and Fanning walked a line between somewhat dim and
just slightly unaware of the manipulations of Tom. Those of us who knew the
novel were still capable of worrying that she might become Tom’s final victim in
the last episode – until her final discovery showed one last sign of naivete.
None of this is what we have come to expect from one of the greatest performers
in her more than twenty year career. I really thought the Emmys might overlook
her and I’m grateful they didn’t. Con: She’s ranked the least likely to
win in her category and while I don’t think that’s fair to her, I can
understand the logic. Marge is a shrinking violet compared to the other
nominees in this category and indeed most of the past winners over the last
decade. It’s clear she’ll be left behind – much like Marge was.
Lily Gladstone,
Under the Bridge: Odds: 13-2. For Playing: Cam Bentland, a
police woman trying to solving a shocking murder. Pro: Long before she
became the frontrunner for Best Actress in Killers of the Flower Moon Lily
Gladstone was a powerhouse performer. Even before her guest role in Reservation
Dogs throughout the series she had been one of the most prominent
indigenous performers, sometimes in unlikely
places (Who’d have thought she’d end up on Billions?) Was she robbed of
an Oscar for her work on Killers? Very likely. But now she has a chance
to do something Emma Stone can’t, win an Emmy. I’m actually a little insulted
that Gladstone is in this as a supporting performer; her work as Cam is as much
a lead as Riley Keough, if not more so. And she is the force of justice in this
series in a way that many of the murky characters in the show aren’t. It’s a
superb work worthy of a nomination…Con:…that is the only nomination Under
The Bridge received. I’ve made it clear what the odds are for so many of
the other performers who have this same bad luck and its very likely that it’s
going to work against Gladstone here.
Jessica
Gunning, Baby Reindeer. Odds:9-2. For Playing: Martha, a woman
whose obsession with Donny becomes the focus and near doom of his life. Pro:
Gunning gave one of the most incredible performances any actress has given
so far in 2024 and that includes almost every other actress nominated for an Emmy
in any category. Her Martha was one of the most brilliant portrayals:
someone who initially seemed such a complete mess and fragile, someone whose
messages were so badly spelled, someone who seemed such a loser that even when
we learned she was a convicted stalker, it took us – like Donny himself – too
long to realize what a real danger she was. When the true monster was revealed
in a shocking moment, even then she seemed fragile as much as she was horrible.
And that’s before you consider how much of Gunning’s brilliance comes more from
her voice messages as much as anything she does on his screen. Even when Martha
isn’t there, she’s looming over everything and it’s clear watching Donny as
things unravel how terrified he is of her and yet somehow still feeling sorry.
It’s fitting the last words are Martha’s: we see at the end she’s just as
broken as Donny is, she just did a worse job of hiding. Gunning has been the
overriding favorite and deserves to win. Con: Despite Gadd’s best
efforts the real Martha was discovered by fans and in a twist that should have
shocked no one has been the victim of harassment herself. Gunning has since launched
lawsuits against both Gadd and Netflix. Will the controversy that hangs over
everything about this show end up hurting its nominees as well? That’s the
question mark hanging over both Gunning and the entire series as we approach
Emmy night.
Aja Naomi King,
Lessons In Chemistry. Odds: 13-2. For Playing: Harriet, an African-American
lawyer determined to protect her neighborhood from an impending freeway. Pro:
An entire series could have been written on Harriet Sloane in Lessons. From
the start she was the strongest and most whole personalities in the show, the
only character who because of the color of her skin, was not only more of a
fighter and yet somehow just as good a lover and friend. Her relationship with
Calvin was devoted and well-done and the slow, steady growth of her friendship
with Elizabeth was the opposite of almost every kind of story we’ve seen between
a white and black women in period piece over the years. Harriet was always the
stronger one, always the more cool-headed, always the more affectionate.
Nothing I saw King do on How To Get Away With Murder could have prepared
me for this. She is the only performer in this category from 2023 who received
nominations before the series came out. And few could argue she isn’t due a
win. Con: When King, who was the heavy favorite at the Critics Choice Awards
in this same category, lost to Maria Bello for Beef it was another sign
that Lessons doesn’t have the momentum that so many of the other shows
of 2023 did. And consider Lessons took place by far the longest ago of
the nominees, I think King’s work will go unrecognized.
Diane Lane, Capote
Vs. The Swans. Odds:7-1. For Playing: ‘Slim’ Keith, the ringleader of
the plot to ‘starve Truman Capote of oxygen’. Pro: Any one of the other ‘Swans’
– Calista Flockhart, Chloe Sevigny or Demi Moore – could have been nominated
here. Lane’s nomination, I suspect, is because her character of Slim was by far
the most forceful of all the Swans on this show. She was the ringleader in the
decision to destroy Truman, held to it harder and longer than all the others. But
we saw, as the series progressed, she was also as big a hypocrite: cruel
towards the women she claimed to protect, judgmental and unpleasant and in what
was by far the biggest blow, claiming to be protecting Babe’s honor while have
an affair with her husband while she was dying. Lane, like all the
actresses cast, is among the greatest actresses of the last thirty years and
one of the least recognized by any awards show. I think she more than deserves
to win. Con: Lane is in a category with some of the best performance in
Limited Series this year. And it seems to be perpetually the fate of performers
in Ryan Murphy’s FX series to received nominations in this category but never
win - Kathy Bates was the last nominee
from an FX series to win in this category. The odds are not on her side.
Nava Mau, Baby
Reindeer. Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Teri, a transgender woman who is in her
relationship with a man. Pro: How much of Mau’s real life experience
was imbued into playing Teri, the woman who Donny begins a relationship with
under false pretenses and who can never overcome his own shame to see openly,
is a question only she can answer. But playing the collateral damage not only
of Donny’s issues with Martha but all of his own trauma over his life makes her
care the one who walks away with the most integrity in the entire series. Mau’s
work was one of the great triumphs as she was the only sympathetic character
from the beginning and was still the only one at the end of the series who was
able to move on completely and fully. Mau’s performance is the moral center of
humanity in this dark work, a beacon. Con: I omitted Mau as a
possibility for a nomination in my initial prediction not because of the lack
of quality in her work but because I thought the revelatory work of Gunning
would completely overshadow it. Mau has been rising in the odds but I’m not
sure that will me enough to get her past Gunning.
Kali Reis, True
Detective: Night Country. Odds: 11-2. For Playing: Detective
Navarro, a detective who believes there’s a link between a series of murders
and the disappearance of an activist five years earlier. Pro: Navarro is
a character unlike any we’ve seen in more than a decade on True Detective. We’ve
had minorities play lead roles on the series before but never one as spiritual
or as devoted to their purpose in a long time. Her character has the moral high
ground in Night Country – territory the show has never inhabited, much less
well – and she does so behaving in a style that is fully in keep with the sexual
proclivities of so many of the men on this show. And considering that she had
to spent the entire series sharing the screen with one of the greatest
actresses in history – and she was more than up to the challenge – shows what a
powerhouse she is. Con: Anyone who watches Night Country and
thinks that Reis was a supporting character really hasn’t watched it. I
do get why Reis did it as we saw in the inaugural season the presence of Woody
Harrelson in Best Actor in a Drama has to have been a factor in Matthew McConaughey
not winning in 2014. Theoretically she’d have a better chance of winning here. But
that’s in theory.
Prediction: My heart wants Fanning
or Lane. My head says Gunning takes this by a
nose. But this is a category for shockers over the decade too.
WRITING AND
DIRECTING IN A LIMITED SERIES
Writing has two
of the limited series as a whole nominated: Baby Reindeer and Ripley.
Much as I’d like to see Fellow Travelers or Fargo win, I’m
giving this to Baby Reindeer, the heavy favorite.
Episode 4 of Baby
Reindeer is the favorite for direction but I find it unlikely Gadd will win
her given the majesty of so much of the other direction. I’d like to see Steven
Zaillian win for Ripley which was by far the most impressively directed
limited series but I suspect it will go to Issa Lopez for her superb work in Night
Country.
As for Variety
Talk, I suspect Jon Stewart’s return to The Daily Show will propel him
to victory and John Oliver will triumph for Scripted series. As for Reality
shows, as Bill Murray eloquently put it, who cares?
I’ll be back a
week from Monday to give a general review of everything that happened on Emmy
night. Thank you for staying with me all this time. Reviews for the new season
will begin next week.
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