For the very worst of
reasons the 2025 SAG Awards have been postponed until this Sunday. I will be
watching them with eagerness on Netflix for numerous reasons, not the least of
which is Kristen Bell is hosting this year.
This is not the only
award show this weekend, however; the NAACP Image Awards are airing this
Saturday. Since I consider them part of what I’ve labeled Phase 2 of the Emmy
watch, I will deal with them next week along with the Spirit Awards for
television.
At this point while I
don’t expect a lot of surprise as the SAG Awards, few would deny that they have
repeatedly shown the capacity to do so particularly in drama. Just last year Succession
was expected to sweep all three awards but Outstanding Male Actor went to a
very drunk Pedro Pascal for The Last Of Us and Outstanding Female Actor
went to a barefoot Elizabeth Debicki. The same could happen here, given how the
Critics Choice Awards went earlier this month.
So let’s begin with
Drama:
OUTSTANDING DRAMATIC
ENSEMBLE
Much as I’d like to
see Slow Horses prevail here, we all know what’s going to win this prize
considering it has already swept the Emmys, the Critics Choice Awards and the
Golden Globes. And no one by now would say Shogun hasn’t earned it –
certainly not me.
SHOULD WIN/WILL WIN: Shogun.
OUTSTANDING MALE ACTOR
IN A DRAMA
Now obviously Hiroyuki
Sanada should win this in a walk for Shogun. The problem is for three
consecutive years the SAG awards has never done what it was supposed to. Succession
has lost male actor both years it won Best Drama (in 2022, it lost to
Lee-Jung Jae for Squid Game) and in 2023 I was certain Bob Odenkirk
would win Best Male Actor but it went to Jason Bateman for Ozark. Throw
in the fact that Sanada is competing against Tadanobu Asano, who like Sanada
has also won both awards he’s been eligible from the Golden Globes and the
Critics Choice, and there is a strong possibility they may split the vote.
I suspect Sanada will
carry the day but if he doesn’t my preference is Jeff Bridges for his work in The
Old Man which would be a fitting cap to a series cut down in its prime.
Should Win: Sanada/Bridges.
Will Win: Sanada.
OUTSTANDING FEMALE
ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Two weeks ago I would
have been certain Anna Sawai was going to win this award for Shogun in a
walk. Then Kathy Bates won Best Actress at the Critics Choice to throw it into
a cocked hate. Now my certainty has diminished.
I still think Sawai
has the momentum to carry the day. But don’t rule out Bates prevailing for Matlock
– considering she was also nominated for The Great Lillian Hall, I
don’t know if the SAG will let her go home empty handed.
Should Win: Sawai.
Will Win: Sawai/Bates.
OUTSTANDING COMEDIC
ENSEMBLE
As with Outstanding
Dramatic Ensemble this one’s a gimme. Hacks has already swept the Golden
Globes and the Critics Choice awards and is the out-and-out frontrunner for the
Emmy next year. I can’t think of a more deserving winner and I can’t wait to
say what everyone says.
Should Win/Will Win: Hacks,
OUTSTANDING MALE ACTOR
IN A COMEDY
This is a tougher one
by far. Jeremy Allan White prevailed in an upset at the Golden Globes for the
third season of The Bear. Adam Brody won the Critics Choice Award for Nobody
Wants This – but critically White wasn’t nominated. We also can’t rule out
the power of Shrinking and the fact that Harrison Ford is more than
deserving.
I suspect that Brody
will have enough room the carry the day this time. But don’t rule out White
making it a three-peat – as we will see in the next category.
Should Win:
Brody/Ford.
Will Win: Brody.
OUTSTANDING FEMALE
ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Could they give the
award to Kristen Bell as she emcees? I won’t lie and say I’d love to see her
win something? But let’s not kid ourselves: we know who’s going to win in this
category and no one questions that she’s earned her third straight award for
the third season. Jean Smart will win her third SAG award for three seasons of Hacks
and is there anyone who deserves it more?
Should Win/Will Win:
Smart.
OUTSTANDING MALE ACTOR
IN A TV MOVIE/LIMITED SERIES
At this point we all
know who the front runner is in this heavily loaded category. Richard Gadd’s
time as the favorite for Baby Reindeer has long since passed and it is
now time for Colin Farrell to continue his march towards the Emmy for his
incredible work in The Penguin. The question is how great will his
acceptance speech this time, as he keeps finding ways to outdo himself.
Should Win/Will Win:
Farrell.
OUTSTANDING FEMALE
ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE/LIMITED SERIES
This one may be the
trickiest one of the night. Jessica Gunning is in this category for Baby
Reindeer and she’s taken both Supporting Actress prizes she’s been eligible
for. Jodie Foster won the Golden Globe for True Detective. Cristin Milioti
won the Critics’ Choice Award for The Penguin. And though it might not
count the same way Lily Gladstone did beat Gunning in this category for her
work in Under The Bridge at the Critics’ Choice Awards.
First of all, all four
of these nominees gave magnificent performances even in series I fundamentally
did not like. But I think it will come down to either Gunning for Baby Reindeer
or Milioti for The Penguin. I’d like to see Milioti prevail because
her performance was closer to a lead. But I give the barest of edges to Gunning
and I expect to see Milioti win at the Emmys down the road.
Should Win: Milioti.
Will Win: Gunning.
STUNT ENSEMBLE
A tough call among
these series. I think it will come down to either Shogun or The Penguin. Now I could be wrong, having only
seen bits and pieces of House of The Dragon and none of Fallout or
The Boys. My preference is for Shogun but I’m willing to speak
with certainty as to the rest.
I’ll be back with my
reactions to the SAG awards – winners for TV and all – on Monday.
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