Right now progressives are angry and indignant at
Chuck Schumer.
This attitude itself is nothing new: it's pretty
much their natural state. I'd argue it's one of many reasons they've been so
pissed as Donald Trump for the last decade: it's not just that he's managed to
do something they can never do – turn into political power – but he's stiffing them
on residuals.
As to Chuck Schumer being their target that's
nothing new for Schumer as they've been pissed at him as symbolic of everything
they hate: a career politician who has responsibility to the Democratic Party,
the country and the people who voted for him. As we all know the left believes
the only responsibility everyone has –
not just Democratic representatives but everyone in the country, if not the
world – is to them the left who know what the right thing is for all Americans
and that everyone bears a moral responsibility to do it, regardless of such
minor details as money, opposition or even the votes to get it done.
And it's worth noting that their most recent
anger at Schumer is because he did the kind of thing that for years or decades
they have mocked and berated Republicans for doing: choosing to end a meaningless
shutdown having gotten nothing for it in return. They've gone out of their way
to frame it differently in their missives from MoveOn and other left-wing
organizations to be sure: they have gone to great detail to say that
Republicans and Trump caused this shutdown because they refused to negotiate on
health care. That in their most recent email MoveOn then chose to argue that
the Republicans were in power and that Democrats caused the shutdown is the
kind of double standard that they always mock – whenever Republicans do it.
Chuck Schumer is like J.K. Simmons in the
Farmer's Ad: he knows a thing or two because he's seen a thing or two. And one
of those things was the longest government shutdown in 2013 when Republicans
led by the Freedom Caucus and John Boehner, effectively held the government
hostage for more than a month over Obamacare. The Republicans had no more leverage
in 2013 then the Democrats had going into 2025: they only controlled the House
and the Democrats had both the Senate and the White House. I have no doubt they
framed their fundraising emails to their constituents the exact same way that
Hakeem Jeffries and certain progressive Democrats framed this one: that the
opposition party was responsible for the shutdown and that it was important all
Republicans stand with them. That said because the conservatives are better at
this then the left is, I have no doubt they had the sense to frame it as a win
when they came back to the bargaining table having gotten nothing. They
certainly maintained party unity going forward – something the left never does –
and have done over since. By contrast when Schumer came back the left has
chosen to argue this was a betrayal, something everyone from Gavin Newsom to Jon
Stewart is piling on to him for.
Never mind the Democrats had less leverage then
the Republicans did when they staged their shutdown twelve years ago. Never
mind that in that case the President was a rational man something the left will
gladly tell you in every other email Trump is not. Never mind that by doing so
the Democrats were starting to hurt so many people that the left claims to care
about including the poor and those on food stamps. The President had made it
clear he was not going to negotiate with Democrats at any time. Schumer knew
this. The left knew all this. So the most surprising thing is that they managed
to delude themselves into thinking this was a battle they could somehow win.
To be perfectly clear I thought from the start
that every part of the shutdown was a terrible, misplaced idea that was being
driven by desperation by the Democrats in the aftermath of last November's election.
Like so many of the actions they have taken in the last several months I think
it is a case of the tail wagging the dog and a desperate attempt to get progressives
to vote Democrat, something they have steadfastly and ridiculously refused to
do even as they admit the Republican party is pretty close to a fascist party. Winning over the left is an
impossible fight and I think the Democrats should admit.
With that said, on a political level I respect what
Chuck Schumer has managed to do and its why I'm not inclined to think he's one
of the losers of the shutdown. I have no doubt he will take the heat and anger
for it but that's because the left won't admit the truth: that they were
completely outmaneuvered by a Democrat rather than the other way around. To explain
let's go back to March when the possibility for a shutdown was imminent.
The most recent stopgap measure, funding the
government until the end of September, was done entirely by Speaker Johnson without any input from Democrat
leadership at all. It features cuts that are in keeping with so much of what
modern conservatism has wanted to do the government since the age of Reagan but
has never been able to execute until now. And because of the way the House
works and with the GOP holding a narrow majority, the Democrats had no choice
but to less it pass almost entirely on party lines. The sole Democrat to vote
for it was Jared Golden.
This was depressing but to be expected. What
happened in the Senate was not, certainly not from the Democratic Party during
this century. Because of the rules of the Senate, getting this resolution
passed would require a cloture vote, requiring 60 Senators. The Republicans
have merely 53, requiring seven Democrats to vote in favor of invoking cloture.
The filibuster, as Democrats and progressives have reminded us for the last
decade at least, has been the tool of Senate Republicans from obstructing any meaningful
legislation since 2010. The Democrats have never used it for any meaningful
purpose at any time during W’s administration or indeed Trump’s first term.
This has subjected them to increasing criticism from the left during the latter
but it is keeping with the message of Democrats being the party of stability
and institutions.
This is not the case now. Even before the budget
reached the Senate floor there has been huge clamor from Congressional
Democrats, including some in the Senate, insisting that when the bill come to
the floor the Democrats should filibuster it. There was a clear understanding
that, if this were to happen, a government shutdown would ensue. Many Democrats
including Jeffries seemed fine with that as an outcome, something that
Democrats like John Fetterman objected do strongly.
Schumer was more than aware of this fact and at
some level you’d think most of the Democratic Senators were as well. They also
have to know that chaos has always been Trump’s greatest ally and that
dissension in the Democratic ranks, particularly now, can only help him. And
yet during this Friday when Schumer made it clear that he was going to vote for
the deal, large members of the Democratic caucus as well as countless
progressives turned their ire on him.
There is now discussion among members of Congress
of having a Democrat primary Schumer in 2028, with some wanting AOC to do it.
When this question was posed to an angry Jeffries he said: “Next question.”
Schumer knew he was under fire from his left. Six
months later nothing had changed when the next stopgap measure came through. What
was different was that an election was coming up in a month's time and Schumer
knew that no matter how the GOP or Trump tried to frame it, it would be viewed
in the media as a referendum on his second term.
So what I suspect is that he and Jeffries engaged
in a kind of negotiation of their own. The next time the stop gap happened
they'd both allow their caucus to vote against and this time he allow his
Democrats to filibuster it. Then they
would close ranks for the next several weeks until the votes were counted in
November. If the voters chose to vote Republican in both Virginia and New
Jersey, then they could argue that the left's approach hadn't worked and they
would go back to being like grownups. By contrast if the Democrats won and won
big perhaps House Republicans would come to them and they could reopen the government
on the terms that they had set. There was no real downside – except for the
damage that Trump would no doubt to the government in that month but at this
point they were well aware that was going to happen no matter what.
It's worth noting that Republicans and members of
the administration were counting on the fact that the Democrats would cave
almost immediately. An article in Politico written this week said that their
was a pool when the government shutdown as to when Schumer and Jeffries would
give in and the most anyone was willing to bet on was a week. Considering the
reputation of the Democrats for being wishy-washy and flip-floppers I would
have made the same bet and the fact that the rank-and-file basically completely
held together completely frustrated everyone in the House and Senate.
It didn't help matters that the President basically
spent October ignoring what was going on in the shutdown. I have no doubt he
thought this chaos would work to his advantage – a safe bet considering his
rise to power and beyond – and its just as likely he didn't give a damn. For
the President what is best for the nation is what is best for Donald Trump and
he expected the GOP to follow him blindly as always. That certain members of
his caucus – including Marjorie Taylor Greene, of all people – were starting to
chart their own paths was a problem as always he chose to ignore.
The President did everything he could to pretend
last week's elections were not a reflection on him but they very much were. Considering
just how staggering the margins of victory were for Democrats in New Jersey and
Virginia, as well as in Prop 50 and so many other states on local issues, is
the biggest sign so far of Trump's lame duck status. As always he chose to deny
it, blamed the victories on the shutdown (giving the Democrats oxygen) and
instead of arguing the House should negotiate told Senate Majority Leader to
end the filibuster. Thune made it clear of his increasing independence (in the
worst way) by saying it was a non-starter with Republicans.
By this point there was nothing left for the
Democrats to win. With the suspension of
payment of food stamps it was becoming clear that soon people were going to
suffer and very soon. The point was made clear this weekend when Justice Ketanji
Jackson issued a stay on the appellate court's order restoring payments. (By the
way I expect Daily Kos and Move On to stop using Jackson in their texts and
emails for the foreseeable future after that.)
Now I need to say something that will be
difficult to hear for some readers but it is the truth: when it comes to the
suffering of so many people the far left is just as indifferent to it as the
far right is save for how it can use it as a cudgel. They've been very clear
about this for years in how they make it clear just how superior states that
are under Democratic leadership are thriving compared to those have lived under
Republican rule. The people in rural red states no doubt need the kind of
leadership that Democrats and progressives could provide by their own logic but
as far as they're concerned they got what was coming to them when they chose to
vote Republican for decades. And as far as their concerned they are 'mooching'
of blue states for all the federal programs and care they need for red states.
When you throw in just how much they seemed to be taking a kind of schadenfreude
about how many Covid conspirators died during the pandemic (Daily Kos had a
record of this during 2020) and I guarantee you that when people started to
starve to death as a result of not being able to receive SNAP programs MoveOn
would start putting billboards in front of the White House in order to end the
'Republican shutdown'.
So I have no doubt Schumer did exactly what he
planned to do from the start. He had seven Democrats and one independent vote
on Sunday to reopen the government. All of them were either stepping down next
year (Dick Durbin and Jeanne Shaheen) or were not going to be up for reelection
in at least another three years' time: an eternity in politics and even more so
in the age of hourly outrage on social media. And I'm pretty clear that some of
them had never been in favor of keeping the government closed in the first
place. (John Fetterman had voted to keep the government open the first time in
March and voted with Republicans this time)
That so many seemingly intelligent people have
argued that Schumer 'caved' essentially means that they chose to believe what
this shutdown really was about premiums of Obamacare and not giving in
to the petulant demands of the progressives. There was no scenario in
which Trump was going to give into the demands of Senate Democrats because
Trump is exactly like progressives in more ways then one. In this case,
it's because he believes any negotiation, any compromise is a
sign of weakness. The left knows this about the President just as much as he
does, mainly because they've been as unwilling to compromise on anything for
far longer than he's been in power. The difference is they don't have any cards
to negotiate with pretty much by choice. They don't have any equal political
power in Congress the way Trump does with his base and the GOP.
What they have is moral outrage and really nothing else. The
fact that the left has spent the last twenty years trying to motivate its base
with the idea that moral outrage alone is enough to get what you want is
another in a long line of reasons why they have so little political power. Schumer knows this because when he acted like
a grownup and opened the government, MoveOn immediately reacted by arguing that
they needed to hold town halls starting to primary Democrats like Schumer and
Fetterman who acted like grownups. Because Schumer's been in politics for a
long time he knows you can't beat the left and you can't join them because any
alliance you have with them is temporary at best.
So he chose option 3. He appeared to join with
them for as long as he could and did what he no doubt planned to do anyway. This
time, however, Jeffries did not act in rage and said he supported him, a stark
contrast to last time. And while Schumer may be the loser in this battle that
may only come out in the future. There are bigger losers now: including Trump
and progressive Democrats, according to the Hill. Moderate Democrats – aka adults
– are considered among the winners and the left has no immediate recourse to
take action against those who committed the cardinal sin of pushing back
against them.
And there are signs that even this disappointment
may be temporary. In the most recent text message from MoveOn the opening
sentence dealt with how while some of them may be disappointed by how the
shutdown ended, they should focus on how the Democrats did so well in last
week's elections. Considering not 24 hours ago I received an email from them demanding Schumer resign this is a pretty
quick turnaround for the left. They won't acknowledge that they were wrong or
that Schumer was right so they're going to do the other thing they do well –
change the subject. Considering just how
well the elections turned out for them last week they may be just tuned into
reality enough to know that they have to focus on the future. And that means
concentrating on the midterms.
I have little doubt that this will come again:
the left is like the right in that they neither forgive nor forget. In this
case, I suspect they're going to do everything in their power to push this into
the background. It's bad enough when MAGA beats them but when a political veteran
completely outmaneuvers them? Best to
pick another battle and there'll be plenty of them soon enough.
No comments:
Post a Comment