Friday, July 3, 2026

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmy Nominations Conclusion: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series (TV Movie)

 

Have we saved the best for last? Not really. But this category is the kind I love – no frontrunners, no one with an award to call them the favorite. Just six incredible actresses, many of whom I've loved watched for years, if not decades, none of them with a single previous award and all giving the performances I love.

So here we go.

 

Linda Cardellini, DTF St. Louis

Ever since she first graced our TV screens in the still-mourned Freaks & Geeks Linda Cardellini has been one of the most versatile actresses in 21st TV. It doesn't matter whether it’s the drama of ER or Mad Men or the dark comedy of Dead to Me, she is one of our greatest actresses and it’s a crime she has only received three Emmy nominations to this point.

Her work as Carol Smernitch is one of the most wonderful performances she's done. We spend much of the series thinking that she's the femme fatale, the woman pulling the strings of the men in her orbit, a woman who is neither a good wife or a good mother. The way she behaves to the detectives, constantly asking them to speak up, makes her seem like just another bullying femme. And then like her male co-leads we learn that she's not any of those things. She does want the best for her son; she is worried about her husband and is  sexually unsatisfied (with good reason) and she even wants to be a good Little League umpire. All of the secrets she's appears to have are just the kind of little things we all go about our lives. And the series finale we realize she does love her husband and her son so much that she's willing to throw away a financial payoff so that her son doesn't think his stepfather hated him.

The fact she has to do all this while doing some of the most bizarre sexual fantasies and much of it completely deadpan adds a depth to her performance I'm in awe of. She has already been nominated by the Astras for her work and I expect to see her fighting it like a tiger (tiger) with the nominees below.

 

Dakota Fanning, All Her Fault

The Fanning sisters had an incredible year and its worth noting Dakota started it out far stronger then Elle. Dakota has been slowly but surely becoming one of the biggest forces in television over the last few years: this is the third limited series in as many years that she's appeared in that has been considered for awards and the second where she certain to be nominated.  And Jenny is a different woman then her interpretation of Margie Greenwood in Ripley: confident and bold in the world of work but still living in the complicated world of mother.

Jenny's role is the most different from Mara's original novel. In adapting it to television Jenny is made a far bigger working mother, whose life is destroyed when she learns her nanny has used her to get close to Milo. She reaches out to Marissa against the advice of everybody and as the series develops the two of them form an unlikely and true bond as Jenny does everything to get to the center of what happened to Milo. And she is given a story that parallels Marissa as her husband goes out of the way to put the burden of caregiving on her now their nanny is gone and then does his own bit of lying that, while less monstrous then so many around them, is no less a betrayal.

Her moment in the sun comes in an incredible monologue in the sixth episode when she learns her husband has been spending his days watching TikTok When Jenny unloads on him with the ferocity of how horrible it is to be a both a mother and a breadwinner it is the kind of speech that is more emotional resonant with any woman in America if not the world. Jenny is mostly absent from the final two episodes but the fact the series chooses to end with the two women and their children together is one of the great things about the entire series.

Fanning  finally received her first award nomination from the Astra this past summer (I'll get to a nominee later below). I'm beginning to think she's overdue a victory herself and I would be fine if she took the prize.

 

Grace Gummer, Love Story

Grace Gummer has been one of the quiet forces in television in the last decade. She was incredible in her stint in the criminally under-recognized (by the Emmys) Mr. Robot as an FBI agent who wants to expose the Dark Army and ends up doing things she never thought she could do in order to survive. She was superb Claire in the sadly cancelled too zone Let the Right One in as a scientist who tries to save her brother from his affliction and becomes as big a monster as he is. Now she takes on one of the most difficult roles in her career – one that led to significant controversy because Caroline Kennedy is still alive and was not happy about it.

But like her mother before her Grace manages to inhabit the role of a famous member of a family by not trying. She clearly cares for her brother very much but she thinks he's not being serious enough. She clearly loves her mother (see below) but she finds it hard to avoid the questions. When her mother dies the two of them realize that yet again they have to bare up under tragedy because its their job. And yet during everything John does she seems more interested in protecting her privacy and her families and what he does as a reflection of it. She is cold both to her brother and the few times she and Caroline interact.

But the power comes, as we know it must, after her brother dies. Once again she finds herself dealing with tragedy and she spends that time trying not to talk to the people involved. This leads to one of the most powerful moments in the entire series where she and Mrs. Bessette are in the same room perhaps for the first time since John and Carolyn's wedding. In it she tells a story about how it truly feels to live in a family which seems to be cursed by tragedy and yet keep coming away surviving. She tries her hardest to reach across a divide that may have been insurmountable and for the briefest of moments does so. With respect the real-life Caroline Gummer did more then enough respect to her and her family.

Gummer was nominated for an Astra Award for her work in Love Story. It's hard to know what her odds are of winning but the big draw is to see if her acceptance speech would be as good as her mother's.

 

Brittany Snow, Beast in Me

Brittany Snow had a great 2025. First she achieved newfound sexual status for her work in The Hunting Wives and then she followed it up with a different kind of wife in The Beast in Me. Now I'd be fine if she was nominated for the former but I'm pretty sure that's not going to happen so why not nominate her for a performance in which she shows a side of her we don't see that often: her more dark and dramatic one.

Considering she spends the overwhelming majority of her time onscreen with two of the greatest actors in TV today it says something about Snow that her works as the most recent Mrs. Jarvis that she can hold her own with either of them. She thinks she knows the secrets of her husband and she's aware of his reputation when we meet her but she doesn't seem clueless or the other woman. And we also see that she's trying to find a way for herself beyond being Nile's wife and that ends up making her be a pawn in so much of what is going on between them, something she chafes at as much as anybody. There's an inner toughness to her that frequently seems missing from Danes's Aggie at times as well a nuance and subtlety that Nile can barely maintain. She's far from innocent in this story but you root for her despite that.

Snow was nominated ahead of Naomi Watts by the Astras but her work is more than worthy of the nomination. I don't know what the odds are of her being picked but I'd be more than fine seeing her compete.

Callie Spaeny, Beef

Of all the four leads in the second season of Beef there's a strong argument that Spaeny's Ashley is the one who is the root cause of everything that follows. We do want to feel sympathy for her: she needs health insurance; she seems to be on the outs with her father and Josh does seem to bully her when he confronts her after the fight. But Ashley also seems to have the worst aspects of every millennial: she wants to do things through shortcuts, she only thinks of herself ahead of Austin and when she ends up getting her promotions its clear she has no idea what she's doing and thinks that because she's blackmailing Josh she should get a pass from doing the hard work and yet be given more responsibility. Josh and Lindsey see absolutely no problem in using her to achieve their own ends and her behavior keeps showing a cluelessness that makes her increasingly hard to sympathize with even as things spiral. The fact that she and Austin come out the winners of this just shows how much they are compromised – and there's an argument that Ashley's learned nothing from this experience at the end of the series.

In lesser hands this could be a problem. But Spaeny who in her brief career has a pretty good track record of playing frail seeming characters with who seem both deep and shallow makes it sing more often then it doesn't. She'll almost certainly be the youngest nominee in this category but she's also one of the most deserving.

Naomi Watts, Love Story

Naomi Watts has literally been here before. Two years ago she was deservedly nominated for Best Actress for playing an iconic famous wife whose dying of cancer most of the series" Babe Paley in Capote Vs. The Swan. Now not two years later she's her for playing perhaps the most famous widow in the 20th century who is also dying of cancer. But this time it's a role that by this time has been played by just about every other actress of note, from Katie Holmes to Natalie Portman. What could Watts add to it, particularly being in just three episodes?

Well because she's Naomi Watts, a lot. Watts's performance shows Jackie O in a role we never see her as: a mother. And the thing is, she's not particularly warm to her son. She seems more interested on what he does in life and more importantly who he's romantically attached to, as a reflection on the family name and her.  You get the feeling she was closer in life to Caroline and that she seemed perfectly fine to treat anything her son did as withholding affection or respect, the one thing he craved. Most of what we know about the lies of Camelot comes from Jackie herself. In scenes with Caroline (Grace Gummer adds to her increasingly brilliant list of performances) her daughter asks if she ever wished she'd married another man.  Jackie looks at her and tells her that she was forced to live her mother's dream: "I was supposed to be the most famous accessory to the most powerful men." She admits she created the myth of her husband which she could have punctured but chose not to. In what is a powerful but almost certainly fictionalized sequence when she is taking her last rites she tells her confessor she wanted to die that day, that she knew of her husband's indiscretions and a part of her has hated him ever since.

Watts role is considerably less significant than Gummer's and indeed other female performers in the series, most notably Constance Zimmer's work as Mrs. Bessette which many could argue deserves recognition as much, if not more, then Watts. I myself wouldn't object if that were to happen. But Watts has been one of our most underrated actresses in any medium for even longer then the rest of them and while I don't per se think she was robbed two years ago all the arguments I made for her then apply now. I mean, why should her husband keep getting all the awards?

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Sophia Lillis, All Her Fault

When the Critics Choice Awards nominated Lillis for her work as Josie, the nanny who abducts Milo at the start of the series it might have seemed like an odd choice to choose her over such prominent names as Dakota Fanning and Molly Gordon. And relatively speaking Josie's role is smaller than the more prominent supporting nominees.

But you can't take your eyes of Lillis whenever she's on the screen. We see her watching TV from far away, we see her trying to take care of Milo, we know that her mother knows what she's up to but isn't telling the truth. And when Milo is returned to the Irvine with three episodes to go in the series we think her character's done – until she shows up at the Irvine home with a gun. Then in the penultima episode we see the story from her perspective and we realize she is the biggest victim of them all, the daughter of parents who didn't love her, suffering from a mental condition that has troubled her from birth, seeing her boyfriend go to prison, believing her son is dead – and then finding out that he's not. To this point we've been led to believe she's the crazy one, suffering from the worst kinds of delusion. It's only in the final minutes of the penultimate episode – and in the final scenes of the last one – that we realize she is the sanest one of the bunch and horribly ends up the victim of the man who destroyed her entire life. It is a tragic story.

It's nearly certain that Fanning will be nominated in this category and she deserves to be. But Lillis deserves recognition as much, if not more then her. In a sense the title refers to her as much as anyone – and just like Marissa and Jenny, it's completely inaccurate.

 

And that, as they say, is that. On Wednesday we'll see how well I did and then get ready for the leadup to the awards itself.

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