Wednesday, July 1, 2026

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmy Nominations, Week 3, Part 3: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie

 

First things first. In my last choice I am going to break my rule and advocate for a performance in a TV movie. That said for the five nominees I'm going to pitch here all of them are from Limited Series – though in one case, I'm going off book as to proper choice.

Here we go.

 

Olivia Cooke, The Girlfriend

The Girlfriend got some buzz at the end of 2025 with the series and Robin Wright getting a fair amount of nominations. It got some recognition from the Astras but I remain pessimistic it will be recognized. Which is a shame because having seen the series last February         I found it superb.

In a perfect world there would be room for both female leads: Olivia Cooke and Robin Wright both deserve nominations. So I'm going to advocate for the one I think deserves it and that's Cooke in the title role. I really thought Cooke's work as Cherry Laine, the working class woman who manages to land David as a boyfriend was the master class that carried this piece, despite the brilliance of Wright's possessive mother. We knew that Cherry was a liar and we saw her do incredibly horrible things but we also knew that Wright's character was too possessive of her son to the point that no woman would be good enough for her. When David was in an accident that seemed certain to kill him – and Laura told Cherry that he was dead – it was a betrayal so horrendous that it seemed impossible to forgive and it was. However by the finale it was clear just how devilishly matched these two women were – and when the tragedy was over you had every reason to think twice.

Cooke has been a major figure on TV ever since she shot to prominence on Bates Motel; her frail appearance showing women with incredible toughness beneath. As I write this the third season of House of The Dragon has debuted to incredible raves and considering how vital Cooke is to that story in a very different way I wonder if that might shoot her back into consideration. This would be one performer from Westeros I wouldn't mind getting an Emmy nomination.

 

Claire Danes, The Beast in Me

 I long since stopped being astonished by anything Claire Danes was capable of after nearly three decades in TV and two Emmys for her work as Carrie Matheson in Homeland. But just as Matthew Rhys found ways to still surprise me as Nile Jarvis Danes' work as Aggie Wiggs was just as impressive.

Danes has made a career of playing women who appear strong on the outside and professional but who are utterly broken on the inside. Here Aggie is something different: a woman who has been fundamentally broken for years because of the tragic death of her son, her marriage in a shambles, suffering from writer's block for her second book, living in a house in Long Island that is falling apart. When next door moves the literal neighbor from hell, demanding a jogging path and not taking no for an answer, Aggie finds herself opening up to him and when it seems a young man maybe dead she's terrified by what she might have caused. Then she finds herself getting deeper into Nile's orbit, fully aware of who he is, increasingly terrified by what he represents but increasingly pot committed to finding out the truth about what he is. When it is revealed the truth is something that not only doesn't always set you free but is best never revealed at all.

Danes got even more recognition then Rhys did, nominated for every award in the book at the end of the year and even more in the last month. In a wide open race she may earn yet another Emmy and while there may be more deserving nominees I can't wait to see what happens next.

 

Carey Mulligan, Beef

Ever since she made her debut to American audiences in An Education Carey Mulligan has a long history of playing characters who are broken internally even if they seem strong in their actions. You can understand why it made perfect sense to cast her in Beef even before it was revealed it would be a reunion with her co-star from Inside Llewyn Davis.

As Lindsay Mulligan plays a wealthy expatriate who's spent much of her marriage holding up her husbands dreams. They haven't had sex in over a year at the start of the series, she spends most of her time following her former boyfriend's socials without being able to follow through, she has no confidence that they will hold their job when the country club is taken over. So in a sense the fights that starts everything in Season 2 is technically her fault even though there are a lot of long-standing issues. She pushes for Josh to cover it up, when things spiral she's less supportive at first, then they seem to find a way to heal from it, and then everything goes from there before things end with them being held prisoner at a spa in South Korea. (As one is in these series.) By the end of the season she's managed to find a way forward – but there's a very good chance that she'll be back where she was in a few years' time.

Mulligan has been nominated for more than  a few awards and she even has a fair amount of trophies for her work in Promising Young Woman. Deservedly she'll be walking the red carpets during the next few months  yet again.

 

Laura Pidgeon, American Love Story

In many ways Laura Pidgeon had a far more difficult role to take on then Paul Anthony Kelly. JFK Jr was a public figure but Carolyn Bessette was known only as the woman who'd won the heir to Camelot and then basically disappeared. Her life was eaten by her husband's despite everything, and that's sadly true about her death.

So it might be surprising that in this version Carolyn comes across as the far more dimensional and realized character even more than JFK Jr. Pidgeon makes it very clear that Carolyn was her own woman, a silent force at Calvin Klein, a woman who was independent and had no early desire to be in the hands of America's tragic family, who resisted John Jr despite his entreaties – and then finally fell in love. Its clear their relationship was combative and that she resisted the idea of being part of this family. Their wedding day was happy – and from the moment the honeymoon ended she became a prisoner in her own home, a monster in the eyes of the media. In the penultimate episode we see two scenes of fights between the two of them, a Carolyn who is horrified by what happened to Princess Di among the most tragic moments. "They killed her," she says. "We're next." And we see them trying to rebuild their marriage before the inevitable tragedy claims their lives leaving a wreckage behind that, sadly, only a few truly know then or now.

Pidgeon is destined for superstardom for her incredible work as Bessette in one of the most erotically charged and sexually confident performances I've seen in years. I'm expecting great things from her and I think she has a bright future.

 

Sarah Snook, All Her Fault

Snook is the only performer in this category with a prize on her mantle for her work: she deservedly received Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series from the Critics Choice Awards this past January. To be sure it was the third prize she'd won from them in five years (she won for the last two seasons of Succession) but though she was stunned I wasn't. Her work as Marissa Irvine was one of the great triumphs of 2025.

Marissa finds herself at the center of a nightmare when she finds out her five year old son Milo has been abducted and the nanny of a woman she sent him to a playdate with was the one responsible. The abduction leads to a nightmare that reveals the fundamental cracks in her marriage and a series of events that reveals the rot at her relationship with Peter. This becomes even worse when Milo ends up being returned to her and the consequences have already spiraled. By the final episodes multiple people have died but even that is not the greatest tragedy of all and it forces Marissa to do something unthinkable in order to protect her family – something that the viewer sympathizes with despite everything.

Snook would appear to be the prohibitive frontrunner in this category though her one prize was a long time ago. As someone who had issues with her work in Succession I fully endorse if she ends up being the ultimate winner.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Allison Janney, Miss You, Love You

I rarely push for nominees for their work in TV movies but when the performance is great enough I can make an exception. And that is the case for Janney's work in what will be one of the frontrunners for Best TV Movie this year Miss You, Love You.

Allison Janney plays Diane, a widow who is planning her husband's funeral. Her estranged son chooses to send his assistant instead of coming himself, forcing her to grieve with his assistant. What follows is essentially a stage play with very few characters showing up and Janney and Andrew Rannels carrying much of the action.

Janney has always been greatest when it comes to turning what should be tragedy into farce (she was superb in her last HBO TV movie Bad Education) and Jim Rash, the Oscar winning screenwriter behind The Descendants knows just how the handle how grief often leads to comedy. In addition to all of this with Janney near certain for a nomination for The Diplomat and a dark horse for Palm Royale – well I'd love to see a woman whose already made Emmy history keep making it.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series. And this time it will be strictly Limited Series.

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