Thursday, July 2, 2026

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmy Nominations, Week 3, Part 4: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series (tv movie)

 

We are coming down the stretch and with only six nominations for category (at least according to submission guidelines) I will have to make some hard choices. This time I am going to be going for at least two nominations in several series, some of which are a given by the Emmys, some less so. But they were by far some of the best performance of the year in my opinion.

 

Jason Bateman, DTF St. Louis

Jason Bateman has been pretty active in the world of prestige TV: earlier this cycle it seemed likely he would be nominated for his work in the Netflix series Black Rabbit. But his work as Clark, the small town Missouri weatherman who finds himself at the center of the investigation into his best friend, is some of the best work I've seen him do.

Bateman is no stranger to playing comedic roles as if they're serious and serious roles as if they're comedic. Here Steven Conrad writes a story where it clearly seems like a comedy but everybody is playing it dead straight. Clark starts out as the kind of person who's setting his best friend up to have an affair so he can cheat with his wife guilt free, seems capable of both being a manipulator and manipulate and ends up revealing himself to just wanting to be the best friend possible to Floyd at such a basic level he almost seems willing to go to prison for murder rather than ruin the man's memory in the mind of his son. This is done with some of the most hysterical moments I've seen all year including a heavy rap son among 'acing the motherf---ing insurance physical' that all limited series should have from this point on as well as some of the most hysterical sexual roleplays I've seen on any show, all done with incredible deadpan delivery.

I've always known Bateman to be a man who has no ego and will do anything for his character. And honestly if you're willing to perform bizarre hand gestures and mock tai chi to 'Let the Sunshine In' over the opening credits you deserve a special prize for that.

 

Stuart Campbell Half Man

Like Mitchell Robertson, Campbell was a virtual unknown when he was cast in Half Man as the young Reuben. However because this category allows for more nominees then the Best Actor category I think he has a better chance then Robertson in being nominated. There's a joke about how Reuben is the lead character in Niall's life but I'll deal with that below.

Personally Campbell's work was astounding in the first three episodes, arguably more impressive then Robertson or even some of the grownups. I've seen performances by young actors who are seen as bullies and trying to be alpha males but looking at just how much of a force Reuben clearly is in school, laying waste to those who threaten Niall, having sex with his girlfriend in their shared room and then basically being an active observer as Niall loses his virginity to her, and then seeing him wage a path of destruction through all those in Niall's life at university – climaxing in the brutal beating of Albie that sets him on a course he will never get out of – I kept thinking that Reuben was the kind of teenager who could eat all the kids in Euphoria, vomit them up and then eat them again. Stuart Campbell plays him as the kind of kid who would have no use for the interior monologues of Rue before the final disastrous season.

And yet at every stage you can see the damaged person Reuben clearly is, the trauma he's carrying his whole life even if we don't learn the source of it until he's an adult. His Reuben is a monster, a bully who lays waste to everyone in his path, but every so often you can see that there's a good person struggling to get out, even though he keeps beating it down. It's through Campbell's performance we see the full tragedy of Reuben more than anyone else.

There are other, better performance who may be more worthy that Campbell's but I'm comfortable pushing for him. This is a kid with a future.

 

Richard Gadd,  Half Man

This is how humble Richard Gadd is. Though an argument could be made that his character is as much a lead as Jamie Bell's, when the time came he chose to have Bell be nominated as lead actor and he went in supporting. Granted Gadd has already got his share of Emmys and other prizes from Baby Reindeer and he may well win more for writing and producing Half Man. But considering that at one point his Reuben points out that he's basically the lead character in Niall's life, there's a good argument he could be in the lead category as much as Bell.

What is not in dispute is how extraordinary Gadd's work was the adult Reuben. Gadd has made it clear in his discussions of Reuben's character that he is always a performer, whether to the outside world or to himself. And considering that by the time we meet his adult version we're inclined to see him as the monster that Niall does it's amazing just how good Gadd is at making us every so often feel sympathy for him. Gadd's bulking up and incredibly toxic masculine talk will almost certain remind those inclined of Andrew Tate and others in the manosphere. We know that Reuben is a man not only capable of violence but whom the threat is almost always likely to be carried out, it's gotten him in prison before, it will again. And yet we can always see there's someone brutally damaged behind the beast, somehow who knows he can never live up to what he's said he is, someone who is a genuine failure despite all he tries to be. And the more we see how Niall has done everything possible to destroy him by the end of the series we have a difficult time not feeling sympathy for him – even in the final moments when he ends up killing Niall, he seems surprised – and we already know what's waiting for him.

Gadd has proven himself to be one of the greatest hyphenates in television today and that he can include performing as much as everything else makes him a force of nature much in the same way Reuben is. That this is the same man who just two years ago stunned the world as Donny – a very different man then Reuben in appearance but in his own way just as damaged – makes it clear there's nothing he can't play.

 

David Harbour, DTF St. Louis

David Harbour is the only nominee I've picked who already has a prize to his credit. Earlier this year he took the Gotham TV Best Supporting Performance in a Limited Series for his work as Floyd. And honestly while there are better performances in this category there's an argument he should win because of his work as Floyd.

How many TV  limited series in the 21st century have you watched where one of the lead characters is one of the nicest people imaginable and the deeper you go they're still the nicest person imaginable. Floyd is the kind of guy who never wants to let anybody down, who quit his job on Wall Street to do work in sign language, who has been doing everything possible to be the best husband and stepfather imaginable, who goes on dates with gay men because he doesn't want to disappoint them, who is fine with his best friend having an affair with his wife because he can't sexually satisfy her (I'm not going to tell why here) who interrupts watching Clark and Carol having an affair because a blind and deaf kid is near drowning and he doesn't want him to get hurt. Floyd Smernitch is a man who's just too nice for this world. The fact that we meet him after he's died in a horrible way just makes it all the sadder. And while one can debate whether the ending spoiled the mood of the series, it's hard to deny the fact that Floyd died as he lived.

Harbour has managed to go the entire run of Stranger Things with nary a win for his wonderful work as Roy Harper and he's been a part of Peak TV even before that. There are other nominees I think are more deserving of the prize but I'll be honest, Harbour winning would give me the most pleasure. I think it would for a lot of people.

 

Jake Lacy, All Her Fault

There's an argument that Jake Lacy has been one of the most underappreciated actors in the decade so far. He's been at the center of no less then four remarkable limited series and to this point has only gotten one Emmy nomination: for his most famous role in The White Lotus. I've always been fascinated how the nice guy appearance that Lacy clear has is often used as a mask for someone who is ruthless and utterly cutthroat. And never was that used to greater effect then as Peter in this series.

At the start of All Her Fault Peter is seen as the model citizen, the good husband and father and the brother to a family that seems broken, his younger brother is physically disabled, his sister a drug addict in an out of rehab. He has built his entire life on taking care of people and seems want to do the best. But by the time the series is half over, its clear that Peter was a monster even before he married Marissa, someone whose actions thirty years ago destroyed his brother's life and who he put the blame on his sister. He feels no remorse when confronted on it and seems content to bully everyone afterwards. Then in the penultimate episode we learn that in the aftermath of a tragedy he substituted his dead child for another live one, leading to all of the horrors that the Irvines have just undergone. And in the series finale we see that he's pushed his wife into not only lying for him but put her in a situation that she has no good options left. In the final episode its clear that Peter is the definition of a sociopath, feeling no remorse for his actions, completely content to bully every one even knowing their remorse. When he meets his fate at the end of the series, the viewer is completely on Marissa's side and we understand why she did what she did.

Because understandably all of the focus in All Her Fault is on the extraordinary actresses at its center Lacy yet again has not gotten the appreciation he deserved. I think it more then deserves recognition ahead of many other contenders and I'm more than willing to push for it.

 

Charles Melton, Beef

One almost wonders how much Charles Melton looks at Austin, the male millennial half of the couple, and thinks to himself "There but for the grace of God." His rise to fame has been meteoric – a critical role in Riverdale, consideration for an Oscar in May December – but one knows all too well that for many celebrities from teen dramas there's only one brief moment before you're filming Cameos for birthday gifts. Austin could be seen as the other side of Melton, a young man who was once a major prospect for professional glory as an athlete and who an injury has reduced him to a minimum wage job as an athletic pro at a country club. Of all the characters in Beef his is the closest to an innocent at the start of the series: he's happy with Ally and basically his lot in life, he wants to do the right thing with the video, he doesn't go along with the idea of blackmail. Of all the protagonists in Season 2 he spends most of the series uncorrupted, still believing in doing the right thing even after the horrors of the final episode. Only in the last moments does he give in to the basic levels of corruption though even there he believes its for a higher purpose. At the end of the second season his fate is almost the saddest: he truly believes he's realized what he wants but he doesn't know what his wife is doing when he's not at home.

Melton has been a heavy favorite since the show debuted and the Astras rewarded him with a nomination this past summer. He will be a formidable contender.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Jonathan Banks, The Beast In Me

I had my share of choices for this pick – I considered Nick Offerman for Death by Lightning for the synchronicity of it (and I'm a fan of anyone who plays Chester Arthur) and I also was very impressed by Michael Pena's work as the dedicated cop who wants to get to the truth as he deals with a personal situation that mirrors what Marissa is going through.

But it was perhaps inevitable I went with Jonathan Banks for his role as Nile Jarvis's father, a man whose every moment onscreen makes you wonder why Nile didn't kill his father instead because he had better uses. Banks's work in first Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul showed an ultra-competent professional who was very good at violence but who didn't like that he carried it out. You can tell he's having the time of his life as a man who is malevolence personified, who loves making everyone, including his young children, compete for affection he will never give, who sees everyone, including his eldest son, as an obstacle, who at times makes Logan Roy look like father of the year.

Banks is always glorious to watch in everything he does and its still criminal he never got a single Emmy for his work with Vince Gilligan. Here's what the Emmys are gonna do: they're gonna nominate him in this category.

 

Tomorrow I wrap it all up with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series. This is going to be a showdown in the Wild West.

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