As We Approach Trump's Last Midterms A Look At How Second-Term Midterms Have Gone For Other Presidents (Spoiler: Usually Not Well)

 

As a historian I know two things happen when a President wins reelection. It's the political apex of their career and it's all downhill from there.

There's countless evidence of this in the record: Wilson's failure with the League of Nations, Truman's Presidency being stained by the firing of MacArthur and of course Nixon's landslide being undone by Watergate. But since we're approaching election day, I wanted to look on a more appropriate level. Once a President is a lame duck (and despite all of his posturing Donald Trump assuredly is) how does the electorate treat his party during the final midterms.

To do so I decided to use several specific metrics. First I was only going to look as Presidents who won reelection after the passage of the 17^th Amendment which allowed the direct election of Senators. (Prior to that, it had only been done my state legislatures.) This would mean that both Houses of Congress were subject to a direct referendum by the voters in a way that hadn't been true before.

Second I would make certain metrics. FDR was considering running for a third term even before 1940 but he didn't make the decision official until war broke out in Europe. As most people assumed after 1936 he would step down I will look at the 1938 election. Truman was against running for a third term so we're going to look at the 1950 election as his final midterms.

Third, I'm not going to consider continuity of other successors to Presidents who died in office. This eliminated Calvin Coolidge in 1926, LBJ in 1996 and Gerald Ford in 1974.

This gives us eight Presidents and elections to look at. Four are Democrat and four are Republican. In each I'll briefly discuss some of campaign issues, how many seats in the House and Senate the administration lost (or in some cases, gained) and just for fun, a major elected official who was voted out as a consequence and one who was voted in.

 

Woodrow Wilson: 1918 Midterms

The big issue going into 1918, as you might expect, was the Great War. Wilson had narrowly won reelection on the slogan "He Kept Us Out of War" and less than one month after being sworn he'd broken that critical campaign promise.

This was already difficult because the Republicans had managed to narrowly take Congress back in 1916 with a one seat majority over the Democrats. There was also division among Democratic leadership over how to pay for the war. As a result the Republicans would gain 24 seats in the House increasing their number to 240 and they would retake the Senate gaining five seats putting them in the driver's seat with 49 Republicans. Henry Cabot Lodge became majority leader and would become Wilson's nemesis as soon as Armistice Day came a week after Election Day.

Departures of Note: Jeannette Rankin, the first woman elected to Congress from Montana, retired to run for the Senate. She lost.

Arrival of Note: Victor Berger would win a seat running for the Socialist Party in Wisconsin's 5^th district. The House would refuse to seat him. He would later run and win in 1922. This time they'd let him serve.

 

FDR: 1938 Midterms

The 1938 election cycle was the nadir of FDR's administration. Having failed in his attempt to pack the Court he'd used a lot of his goodwill up after his historic 1936 landslide election. Then he'd spent much of 1938 attempting 'the Purge' his attempt to primary conservative Democrats with liberal alternatives, which overwhelmingly failed. Combined with this was a recession that undercut much of the growth of the New Deal.

As a result the Republican Party, which many had predicted might go under after winning just Maine and Vermont two years earlier, managed a remarkable recovery. It might not seem that way because the Democrats still had overwhelming majorities in both Houses of Congress. But the Republicans would gain 81 seats in the House, bringing them up to 169 nearly doubling the amount they'd had after 1938. They also gained 8 seats in the Senate. The Democrats still had more then 2/3 of both Houses of Congress. But there were now around 20 unreliable votes among the Democrats – mostly in the South – which would allow conservatives to block some of his policies.

Departure of Note: George McGill would lose reelection in Kansas to Clyde Reed. To date no Democrat has won a Senate seat in Kansas since – though that may be about to change

Arrivals of Note: Robert Taft would win election to the Senate in Ohio and would very quickly become known as Mr. Republican and the main opposition to Democrats for the rest of his life. Sctott Lucas won reelection and he would eventually become Majority Leader under Truman until…

 

Harry Truman: 1950 Midterms

After Dewey didn't defeat him Truman's first term in his own right very quickly became a disaster. China would end up going Communist and the Korean War began on the eve of the election. Domestically there were issues of corruption within the Democratic Party and McCarthyism was beginning to rise.

The Democrats would maintain control of both Houses of Congress but they lost a lot of their majorities. The Republicans would gain 28 house seats, cutting the Democrats margin to 235-199. They also gained five seats in the Senate. One of the critical losses was Scott Lucas who'd lose reelection to Everett Dirksen.

Other Departures of Note: Millard Tydings, who FDR had tried to purge from the party in 1938 lost reelection to the Republican John Marshall Butler, after 24 years in the Senate. Elmer Thomas who'd represented Oklahoma in the Senate since 1926 lost renomination to Mike Moroney.

Arrivals of Note: Everett Dirksen would eventually become Senate Minority leader and would be critical for his work in passing the Civil Rights Acts of both 1964 and 1968. The Dirksen Senate Office Building in the Capitol bears his name with honor.

 

 

Dwight D. Eisenhower: 1958 Midterms

Republicans had hoped that Eisenhower's immense popularity would lead them to huge majorities in Congress and the Senate. It never worked out that way. This was especially true in 1956. Despite receiving the biggest electoral victory of any Republican to that point in history – 41 states and 457 electoral votes -  Congress which was still under Democratic control, remained so.

During 1958 the economy suffered a recession and the Democrats chose to blame Eisenhower. There was also consternation about the launch of Sputnik and busing. As a result they gained 48 seats in the House increasing their majority to 283. This number was so great the Republicans would not be able to take the majority back in the House until 1994 under Newt Gingrich's Republican Revolution. This led the disappointed House Republicans to replace the minority leader Joe Martin with Charlie Halleck

It was even worse in the Senate. The Democrats would gain an incredible 15 seats in the upper chamber, in what was only the second (and to date last) time ten or more Senate seats changed hands in the midterms. They would have 64 members to the Republicans 34 (and two came for a special reason.)

Departures of Note: William Jenner, one of the biggest 'red baiters' in the Senate, right up there with McCarthy retired. Good riddance. John Bricker, one of the major conservative forces in Ohio, lost reelection to Stephen Young.

Arrivals of Note: Quite a few, actually. Edmund Muskie, Eugene McCarthy and Robert Byrd all won their first elections to the Senate and all would become vital voices of liberalism in the decades to come. This was also the first election in which Alaska would hold elections and because of a coin toss Ernest Gruening became senior Senator over Bob Bartlett. Gruening is best known for being one of only two Senators to vote against the Gulf of Tomkin Resolution.

 

Ronald Reagan: 1986 Midterms

In 1984 Ronald Reagan had the greatest electoral victory in American history with 49 out of 50 states and 525 Electoral Votes to Walter Mondale's 13. But it was a personal victory for Reagan and not the Republican Party. The GOP only gained 16 seats in the House and lost two seats in the Senate.

1986 was worse though it depended on where you looked. The Democrats lonely gained 5 seats in the House where they still held a healthy majority of 253 to 181. The Senate was another matter. In 1980 the Republicans had taken control of the Senate back for the first time since 1954 when they'd won 11 seats. In 1986 the Democrats defeated seven of the freshman incumbents making major gains including in Washington, South Dakota, North Carolina and Florida.

Departures of Note: Barry Goldwater would retire giving way to John McCain. Paul Laxalt also retired in Nevada and his Republican counterpart would lost to Harry Reid.

Arrivals of Note: Barbara Mikulski of Maryland and Tom Daschle in South Dakota. Daschle eventually became minority leader before losing in 2004 to John Thune.

 

Bill Clinton: 1998 Midterms

During the 1990s America seemed fine with a divided Congress and in every election between 1996 and 2000 both parties were pretty much evenly divided in the popular vote and very few sides gained or lost seats. This might explain why the 1998 midterms were such an outlier.

The Republicans had been hoping to gain seat due to both 'the six year itch' and everything involving Monica Lewinsky. Instead the Democrats gained five seats in Congress and the Senate remained exactly the same: 55 to 45. The Republicans flipped three Democratic seats in Illinois, Ohio, and Kentucky but the Democrats flipped three Republican seats in New York, Indiana and North Carolina. This may have been the inspiration for a line Aaron Sorkin said on The West Wing just prior to the 2000 elections: "Tell me democracy doesn't have a sense of humor.

As a result Newt Gingrich, who'd staked his parties reputation on the midterm results, was forced to resign from Congress. His immediate successor Bob Livingston did so just before he took office leading Dennis Hastert to take over.

Notable Departures: Al D'Amato, who'd been in the Senate since 1980 lost his big, for reelection…

Notable Arrivals: …to Chuck Schumer. Also Ben Nighthorse Campbell who'd first won election as  a Democrat and had switched parties in 1994 won reelection as a Republican.

 

 

George W. Bush: 2006 Midterms

By 2006 fatigue over the Iraq War and the War on Terror had led to exhaustion with the GOP as a whole. Combined with a 50 state approach held by DNC chairman Howard Dean, the Democrats retook control of both Houses of Congress for the first time since 1994. They would win 32 seats giving them the majority in the House to 233 and forced Dennis Hastert to resign. The Democrats would win five seats and thanks to Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders agreeing to caucus with the Democrats the Democrats took back the majority. Furthermore no congressional or gubernatorial seat held by a Democrats was won by a Republican. "Those were the days…"

Notable Departures: Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who'd been castigated by the left into becoming an internet meme was soundly defeated in Pennsylvania. George Allen, a moderate Republican in Virginia many thought would be a contender for President, made a blunder late in October and Jim Webb defeated him.

Notable Arrivals: Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester and Amy Klobuchar would be elected to the Senate along with Bernie Sanders. That said there were some new faces in Congress on the GOP side who have gone to significance: Michelle Bachman, Kevin McCarthy and Jim Jordan. Jordan is the only one still there.

 

Barack Obama: 2014 Midterms

The most recent six year itch hid Obama hard. The Republicans had already made a huge gain in House Seats with the Tea Party movement back in 2010 and they gained 14 more in 2014. This led to a combined total of 77 Democratic held House seats lost under Obama, the highest number of House Seat lost under a two term President of the same party since Harry Truman.

The Senate was worse. Throughout Obama's administration they'd manage to keep the Senate under Democratic control. In 2014 the bottom fell out as the Republicans took 9 seats that were formerly Democrat while holding every single Republican seat in play. The Democrats didn't win a single Republican seat. The result gave the Republicans their biggest majorities in both Houses of Congress since 1928. And believe me Democrats were in a great depression over the outcome.

Notable Departures: Almost every red state Democrat running. Tom Harkin in Iowa, Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, Jay Rockefeller in West Virginia (he retired before the bloodbath) and Mark Begich in Alaska.

Notable Arrivals:  Tom Cotton in Arkansas, Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Bill Cassidy in Louisiana. Of course thanks in no small part to our current President those three aren't going to be in the next Senate though at best Democrats may get two out of three. (There's also Dan Sullivan winning in Alaska. Doing everything we can.)

 

One of things that is easy to forget in a world of 24 hour news networks, social media, the internet and our current President is one that every student of history knows by heart: "The more things change, the more they stay the same."

And that is that 'the six year itch'  - a phrase that seems perfectly appropriate as it was when it was coined in the 1990s –  almost never goes away. With Bill Clinton clearly serving as an outlier, it seems that whether a President is a great one or a horrible one, eventually the voters take their frustrations out on his party.  In some cases, such as Eisenhower and Reagan, their personal popularity never synced that much with their political party to begin with and even FDR, considered the greatest President by many historians did reach a point in his political life where the voters took their frustrations out on the Democrats.

In many cases there are outside factors: the Great War in Wilson's case, the Civil Rights battle in Eisenhower's, exhaustion with the War on Terror in W's. But in some cases the voters just want to turn the page even if there is no apparent reason to do so. Everything involving Iran-Contra didn't come to light until after the 1986 midterms so it wasn't a factor in the electorate's decision. And despite Obama's immense personal popularity as well as the fact the GOP had shutdown the government in 2013, the voters still rewarded the Republicans with huge majorities anyway one year later.

It's like the only person who truly believed at every level this midterms were going to go absolutely perfectly for him is the President, whose ability to live in denial was made clear after the 2018 midterms when he blamed the losses on Republicans for not displaying sufficient fealty. (Sufficient fealty to Trump has been proven to never be sufficient to him; it's just taken the GOP a decade to realize this obvious fact. )

Even allowing for the extraordinary circumstances of all things Trump there have always been parallels between him and so many of his predecessors: his personal hold over the electorate is out of sync with his party at a Congressional level. This was particularly true with Eisenhower and Reagan and a similar argument could be made for Obama.  There's also the added fact that his decision to purge the party of those who he considered insufficiently loyal has been more successful then FDR for much of his career, though we'd already seen variations of it during Gingrich's rise to power and the Tea Party as a whole when it came to primarying those deemed insufficiently conservative. It has rarely cost the Republicans at a Senate or House level the way it did those prior movements. This cycle is proof that that lock on the electorate is waning.

It should be noted that while many Republicans are towing the party line about holding on to power, their actions speak  far louder. They've already moved money out of many swing districts and are privately considering the House a lost cause. Earlier they essentially conceded Roy Cooper flipping a seat in North Carolina when they pulled money out of that campaign and they've done the same against Jon Osoff in Georgia. That JD Vance and Trump have spent much of the fall in Kansas – where again no Democrat has won since 1932 – shows how worried the GOP is about Adam Hamilton making history. And they've already spent nearly 300 million dollars trying to hold onto a seat in Texas that every single poll shows James Talarico about to make history for the Democrats.

Trump has spent as much of his administration hiding behind his usual bravado and flexing executive power, all the while knowing that the lame duck status that has destroyed every coalition that has gone before him is something he'd can't pretend doesn't exist. History already indicated that next Tuesday is going to be a good night for the Democratic Party at every level. All the denialism in the world (and he will no doubt put up a lot) can't stop the verdict of the voters. 

The other thing about history is those who don't learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. We all know how proud our once and current President is about not learning any lessons. The good thing about democracy is that the voters keep educating their leaders anyway.