My Picks For This Year's Critics Choice: Part 3, Limited Series/Movie

BEST LIMITED SERIES

Escape at Dannemora and Sharp Objects are strong series, but just like two years ago, when the first installment of American Crime Story dominated these awards, it seems a sure thing that The Assassination of Gianni Versace will be just as dominant. The Golden Globes were in favor of it last week, they’ll be just as generous here.

Should Win/Will Win: Assassination of Gianni Versace.

BEST ACTOR,  TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

This is a trickier category than the Golden Globes. Benicio Del Toro and Paul Dano gave superb performances in Escape at Dannemora, but the odds are they’ll cancel each other out. Hugh Grant might prevail for A Very English Scandal. But in the end, it looks like Darren Criss will continue his hot streak. And of all the reprobates in this category, his was by far the most fascinating.

Should Win/Will Win: Criss.

BEST ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

Basically the same field as the Golden Globes in which Patricia Arquette triumphed last week – with one major exception. Carrie Coon, nominated for her fine work as the cult leader at the center of USA’s The Sinner, gave an exceptional performance, and the Broadcast Critics have a tendency to be favorable to her in categories with strong female leads. (This is her fourth nomination in as many years.) I think there is a legitimate chance she could prevail here, but let’s be honest – all of the nominees in this category gave great performances. I’ll give the barest of edges to Arquette, whose work was literally transformative, but there are no losers here.

Should Win: Arquette.

Will Win: Coon/Arquette (but they’re all good).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

Like I said before, you can’t really handicap these categories well. Ben Whishaw’s triumph at the Golden Globes for A Very English Scandal might give him a slight edge, but this is a different category. Eric Lange and Finn Wittrock both gave great performances that might be able to register an upset here.

My personal preference is for Lange, whose work as the buffoonish, cuckolded, and yet ultimately faithful husband deserves to be acknowledged as much as the three leads. But I’ll give the barest of edges to Whishaw.

Should Win: Lange.

Will Win: Whishaw.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

Here we might she a shift. Patricia Clarkson more than deserved to win for her work in Sharp Objects, but there’s a real chance that Elizabeth Perkins might siphon away a votes from here. One could definitely see the same thing happening between Penelope Cruz and Judith Light in the Assassination of Gianni Versace. Could this lead to an upset by Ellen Burstyn or Julia Garner? Possibly, but it’s doubtful.

In the end, I think it will go to Cruz by the barest of edges. Her performance was really as transformative as Arquette’s was, and has been seriously lacking in acknowledgement in the awards market. This is the last chance to honor her, and I think she’ll prevail.

Should Win: Clarkson.

Will Win: Cruz.

The strike is over! Hallelujah! See you Monday with my reaction to the awards.