I will confess I’m not
entirely thrilled about the recent trend of awards shows being moved to
streaming services. I wasn’t happy that BBC wasn’t airing this year’s
presentation of BAFTA (though based on how hostile critics and audiences were, it
looks like I didn’t miss much) and I really hope that some day the HCA manages
to get its TV awards on an actual network rather than YouTube. So I’m still not
entirely certain if I’ll actually be able to watch this year’s SAG awards,
since they seem to be on a service of Netflix I am not entirely sure I get. I
will no doubt spend much of the next day or two trying to make sure I can.
Overall, I’m disappointed
the ceremony is leaving TNT and TBS for streaming in the first place. It has
always been one of the more enjoyable awards shows to watch regularly, it
generally gets things done within two hours and the winners can often be entertaining
and sometimes surprising to watch. The first sign that Squid Game was
about to become a force in the Emmys occurred last year when it upset Succession
for Best Actor and Best Actress in a Drama. I didn’t even mind when the
series ended up winning Best Drama, mainly because of Brian Cox’s superb speech
for the cast. The TV awards have, over the past five or six years, been
trending to a happy medium between mirroring or foreshadowing the Emmys while
every so often giving us a winner that most awards shows overlook. Some of my
highpoints of the most recent awards shows have come from Stranger Things and
This is Us triumphs in recent years, and I truly hope that we see
something like that again this year.
In any case, here are
my hopes and predictions for Sunday night.
OUTSTANDING ENSEMBLE IN
A COMEDY SERIES
No contest, no
argument. It’s already triumphed at the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice,
and its likely to do very well at the Image Awards tomorrow. Nothing can stand in the way of the
juggernaut that is Abbott Elementary. At this point, the only real
question remaining is, will Ted Lasso’s return next month do anything to
stand its way from winning at the Emmys this fall.
Should Win/Will Win: Abbott
Elementary.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE
BY AN ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Another easy one, even
given the powerhouses in this category. Much as I’d like to see Bill Hader or
Steve Martin prevail, nothing can stop Jeremy Allan White for The Bear. He’s
already triumphed at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. It’s going to
be really hard for even Jason Sudeikis himself to take a third consecutive Emmy
against him this year.
Should Win:
Hader/White.
Will Win: White.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE
BY AN ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
This is the first one I’m
not certain of. Quinta Brunson took the Golden Globe; Jean Smart the Critics
Choice award. There could also be sentiment for Christina Applegate who has
publicly announced that Dead To Me is likely to be her last acting role
due to her health. I would like to see Brunson or Applegate prevail, and I
think one of them will. But I’m going to give the barest of edges to Brunson,
while acknowledging this could be the wild card.
Should Win: Brunson.
Will Win: Not Sure
Now on to drama.
OUTSTANDING ENSEMBLE IN
A DRAMA SERIES
This is a tough nut to
crack. The major contenders would appear to be Better Call Saul and The
White Lotus, which I thought was put in the wrong category but may very
well be a harbinger of next year’s Emmys.
There is obviously a
far more sentimental and better argument for Saul; it has spent its
entire run basically being ignored by almost every award show in existence –
except the Critics’ Choice, which gave it three awards including Best Drama. It
is also the child of Breaking Bad, and the series dominated the SAGs in
its final season. On the other hand, Breaking Bad also dominated the
Golden Globes in its last season, and that didn’t happen this year.
The White Lotus did win Best Limited
Series at the Golden Globes and there’s no question as to how gifted its cast
is. But few could make a real argument that it truly belongs in this category.
And as history demonstrated, when Big Little Lies transitioned to this category
in its second season, it was defeated by The Crown and Lies was a
far better fit in Drama than this series is.
I’m going to give the
edge right now to Better Call Saul, while admitting that there is just
as much a chance that The Crown or Ozark could very well prevail
here.
Should Win: Better
Call Saul.
Will Win: Better
Call Saul (but it’s anybody’s guess.)
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE
BY AN ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
This one I have more
confidence in. While I believed Kevin Costner’s win for Yellowstone was
unjustified. I admit he’d be more a threat if he were nominated in this category.
And while I’m not prepared to rule out a win for Jeff Bridges or Adam Scott (or
honestly be that upset if they won) I think Odenkirk takes this one in a walk.
He’s already won the prize from the Critics Choice and the HCA; I think it won’t
be that much of a struggle for him to take it here.
Should Win/Will Win:
Odenkirk.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE
BY AN ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Much as I don’t
particularly like the idea, I’m pretty sure who the winner’s going to be.
Zendaya has been making an awards run the last few months, taking the Golden
Globe and the Critics Choice for Best Actress for Euphoria. I realize
some people truly believe that Jennifer Coolidge has a real chance of stopping
her, and I don’t entirely blame them for thinking that, given her run of the
awards to this point.
But the sad truth is,
Coolidge couldn’t win last year when she was competing in a Best Performance by
an Actress in A Limited Series. And as much as I’d like to see her complete the
cycle, I just don’t see that happening. I really would like to see her or Laura
Linney up there. But I think youth will be served. It will either be Zendaya or
Julia Garner, and in this case I’m going with Zendaya.
Should Win: Coolidge.
Will Win: Zendaya (sigh).
Now the rest of them.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE
BY AN ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE
My out and out favorite
in this category is Steve Carell, whose work in The Patient is one of
the best performances I’ve seen in this cycle.
But I’m inclined to think this award will come down to one of the two
serial killers in this category: Paul Walter Hauser for Black Bird or
Evan Peters for Dahmer.
Both men did win Golden
Globes; Peters for Best Actor; Hauser for Best Supporting Actor. Hauser
prevailed at the Critics Choice; Peters did not. Because there is still far too
much controversy about Dahmer in the first place, I will give the edge
to Hauser, whose performance was honestly more mesmerizing than Peters.
Should Win: Carell.
Will Win: Hauser.
OUTSTANDING PERFOMANCE
BY AN ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES
I would like to see
Jessica Chastain prevail, as much for her work in George and Tammy as
well as for the fact she was ignored by the Emmys for her superb performance in
last year’s Scenes from a Marriage. And let’s not kid ourselves if
Coolidge was in this category, she’d probably win in a walk. But because she’s
not, I think it will come down to Amanda Seyfried for The Dropout and Niecy
Nash-Betts for Dahmer.
Seyfried has been making
a constant path through the awards cycle herself, triumphing at both the Golden
Globes and Critics Choice awards. There’s little to suggest she won’t do the
same at the SAGs save for the fact she wasn’t present for either of those ceremonies.
Nash-Betts was at the Critics’ Choice and given the extraordinary power of
the speech she gave when she took Best Supporting Actress, I think that people
might want to see what she does here. (I’m also relatively certain that she’ll
prevail at the Image awards too.)
I’m giving the barest
of edges to Seyfried for the sake of completeness. I just hope she’s here to
pick up the trophy this time.
Should Win/Will Win: Seyfried.
BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE
This will either come down
to Andor or House of the Dragon. I’m inclined to believe how well
Game of Thrones did in this category and because House was
otherwise shutout, House of the Dragon will prevail here. And I’m fine
with that.
I hope I can track down
the actual awards on Sunday. Regardless, I’ll be back Monday with my reactions
to the winners – and probably those of the Image awards too.
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