The White Lotus Probably Won't Be Nominated at the Emmys This Summer - And Its Basically Tanya's Fault

 

When the second season of The White Lotus aired, the Emmys decided to categorize as an anthology series which would qualify it in the Limited Series category, the same category the show dominated last fall. The Golden Globes acknowledged that by nominated the show and the actors in those categories, it won Best Limited Series. The Critics Choice awards argued otherwise, and the only nomination it gave the series was for Jennifer Coolidge for Best Supporting Actress in a Drama, which she won. The SAG has done likewise, and honestly given the layout of the awards, they had a better chance of winning. Still, the series seemed the heavy favorite for another sweep this fall.

Then last week, the Emmys reversed themselves and said that The White Lotus would have to compete in the Best Drama category this year. To be clear, this is not a category the series fit particularly well in, no matter what, and if this ruling remains upheld, I think that it is very likely The White Lotus will go hungry at the Emmy nominations in July.

To be clear, this has nothing to do with my judgment for either the second season or the incredible work of the entire cast. While I might very well have thought the Emmys chose to overindulge the incredible ensemble last year at the expense of far too many other series, that didn’t mean I thought that they deserved the accolades any less. Furthermore, while this meant that they were the front-runner and likely winner again this year, that didn’t mean they didn’t deserve for it Season 2. But being forced to compete in the Best Drama category, particularly this year, will almost certainly doom it.

It seems a high probability that House of the Dragon will engage in the same nomination domination that its parent show Game of Thrones did, particularly after its win at the Golden Globes. With Succession due to premiere next month, it is highly likely that one of the most critically acclaimed series will dominate the nominations as well. And that’s before you consider the wild card in the equation: the new critical and ratings sensation The Last of Us.  All three of these series have put HBO back on the map when it comes to popularity and critical acclaim. I think the first two are certain to be nominated for Best Drama. This is before you consider whether other previous heavy favorites in this category: the recently departed Westworld and the soon to return Perry Mason will end up playing this year.  Ever since 2001, no network, broadcast or cable, has ever managed to have more than two series nominated for Best Drama. (Netflix is a different story.) I find it hard to fathom that the Emmys would be willing to nominate even as many as three from HBO, considering they refused to go that far when Six Feet Under, The Sopranos, Deadwood and The Wire were all on the air.

And that’s only including HBO. So far, it is likely that Better Call Saul and The Crown will be certain nominees, considering how much they have dominated the award nominations leading up to the Emmys. Yellowjackets returns next month, and it’s almost certain it will be back in the fight, considering how much of a sensation it was last year. And while many people may have lost patience or indeed never had it with The Handmaid’s Tale, it has been a major factor in every Emmy race it’s been eligible for.

All of these, for the record, are the most likely candidates to proceed based on the history of the awards shows and recent events. That’s before you consider all the potential wild cards. Could Yellowstone finally break into the Best Drama bracket? Will The Mandalorian manage to return and do the same? Or will its Star Wars neighbor Andor, an early critical favorite end up making a noise? These are just the series that have either aired or we know will be eligible. Will Squid Game or Severance return on time? Will series from other services like The Good Fight or Evil make an impression? Hell, one can’t even rule out the possibility of a network drama making the cut: series like Alaska Daily and Will Trent could make an impression that not even the broadcast blind networks could ignore. All of this was going to be a crowded Best Drama category before the rules flip on The White Lotus. Up against this competition, I don’t think it has a prayer.

Indeed, past history would seem to demonstrate that. When the second season of Big Little Lies aired in 2019, it seemed early on that it would be a major contender for Best Drama, being nominated for both by the Golden Globes and the SAG awards. But by that July, the buzz had pretty much died and while Succession and Westworld were nominated that year, Big Little Lies wasn’t.  Indeed, many of the nominees that year will be eligible this time, including The Crown, The Mandalorian, Handmaid’s Tale and Better Call Saul.

As for all of the acting nominees that were likely to dominate the Supporting Actor and Actress awards, I foresee a similar fate such as the one that occurred at the Critics Choice.  Last year, there were three acting nominees in the Supporting Actor category and two in Supporting Actress from Succession alone. Considering Game of Thrones dominance of this category in its later seasons, it might not be impossible for the same to happen here. The Crown and Better Call Saul will likely do well too, though I truly hope the Emmys doesn’t go as overboard for Handmaid’s Tale as it did two years ago. With all of that in consideration, it is conceivable Jennifer Coolidge could very well be the only nominee from the series to get an acting nomination, and considering she only managed to do before series like Yellowjackets and Succession were eligible, I find her odds shakier than they were at the Critics’ Choice.

And let’s be clear: Coolidge’s presence is the real reason for the flip-flop. Had Mike White decided to let the second season take place without Tanya, the Emmys wouldn’t have to make this decision. Although honestly, being robbed of the chance to see Tanya die with the same dignity in which she lived is a price I think most viewers would have been unwilling to pay. Because we all love Jennifer Coolidge. Would I have wanted her to give another wonderful speech at the Emmys? Of course. Would I feel better if it freed things up for Rhea Seehorn or Christina Ricci to win this year? Absolutely.

But the glass is half-full. When The Dropout took Best Limited Series at the Critics Choice Awards, one of the people creator Liz Meriwether thanked in her acceptance speech was Mike White ‘for not being eligible in this category.’ Hard to argue with that kind of envy. Now that The White Lotus is not going to be in the Limited Series category this year, the race is now wide open in a way it hasn’t been in – probably since 2019, when it took until Emmy night to determine who would prevail between the standoff between Chernobyl, Escape At Dannemora and When They See Us. There are already at least two very likely contenders dealing with true-life serial killers: Dahmer and Black Bird, and the prospects have improved for The Patient, Hulu’s series having to do with the relationship between a serial killer and the therapist he abducts. Steve Carell and Domhnall Gleason have already gotten a fair amount of award recognition prior to this.

Other potential candidates that have already aired are George & Tammy and Fleishman is in Trouble. It is conceivable that the broadcast series Accused will be a contender now. And there are more interesting contenders to come. Among the most likely are two other HBO Limited Series: White House Plumbers, which bares the credentials of Armando Iannucci and a superb cast led by Woody Harrelson, and Love and Death, scheduled to come out in April on HBO Max.  There is even the possibility that two other successful anthology series – True Detective and the final season of Fargo  - may end up airing before the end of eligibility in May.

As for Mike White, well even he would admit he got more than his share of love for the series over the last year. And he is a generous enough individual that I think even he would be fine with letting another series take the crown this year. In the meantime when it comes to Season 3, maybe consider starting with an entirely new cast?  Not that I – or indeed any one who loves this show – would truly object to seeing whether Shane and Rachel are still married, or if the De Grasso family is holding together on another vacation.  It’s just if The White Lotus has proven anything in two seasons, it’s that basically all rich white people are basically incapable of learning from their experiences as any other group. They’d die rather than change. You can teach us that lesson at the next exotic location we stay anyway. And hell, maybe it’s a good abject lesson that the show won’t be a major awards contenders. It’s at least one case where the rich and powerful can’t win everything. (True the families in Succession and House of the Dragon will likely make up for it – but that’s an article for another day.)