I need to be clear that I will
be watching Sunday night’s Golden Globes for the same reason I’ve been watching
every awards show related to TV in my adult life. I’ve seen the nominated
series, I have my favorites about the nominated actors, and I will be graded it
based on my reactions to who wins and the nature of the speeches. If Nikki
Glaser happens to be a scintillating host and the show is entertaining, that’s
an unanticipated bonus. My expectations for this ceremony are essentially the
ones that I’ve come to expect from every awards show. And that is, to
paraphrase Johnny Carson “two hours of sparkling entertainment spread out over
a four hour show.”
I remain baffled by anyone in
the world – including and especially my fellow TV critics – who watch these
kinds of ceremonies expecting anything else. I’m incongruous when it comes to
those who decide to watch these shows even though they’ve seen none of the
nominated films or movies. If you’re that starved for entertainment, there are
now hundreds of options. There will be
at least one Law & Order marathon somewhere. AMC and Showtime at
least will be showing original programming. There will probably be at least one
football game going on somewhere. Any of these are more guaranteed to be
entertaining than the Golden Globes will probably be.
And to my fellow critics who for
some reason keep reviewing all of these awards shows as if they are supposed to
be as delightful and streamlined as the series nominated – why? It’s an
awards show. Even the best of them have stilted dialogue, routines that
don’t land and are self-congratulatory from beginning to end. You’d be more
likely to have fun watching or competing in Squid Game then to
have it flow smoothly. At this point in my life I’m astounding anyway watching
any awards show expecting anything but that. This isn’t a concert or live
theater; it’s not even The Brutalist. It’s a bunch of rich and famous
people getting awards and pretending to be surprised and humble when they get
them. I love the work they do but I don’t expect more than that and I’m still
stunned that so many intelligent people do.
I care who wins these awards.
That’s why I’m watching. If you don’t, don’t watch. If you do watch, don’t
expect it to be anything but an awards show. Simple as that.
And now with the lecture being
over, let me get to the fun part and if I’ve sounded a bit stodgy I need to be
clear that when it comes to television I have always found the Golden Globes
rewarding even despite all of the behind the scenes chaos that has been going
on the last few years. This has always been true of television during the 21st
century and it is just as true with the nominated series and actors this past
year.
Here are my predictions for
every category divided between what should win and what will win.
BEST DRAMA
This is an easy one as I suspect
most of the awards in Drama will be because no one is questioning which one of
these series will dominate. Shogun managed to win eighteen Emmys last
fall and I fully expect it to have a similar level of domination that is
keeping with the pattern of Succession last year. Much as I admire the
quality of the other nominees in this category, Shogun will reign
supreme.
Should Win/Will Win: Shogun
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR
IN A DRAMA
I will admit this is tougher
competition. I’ve seen the work of Eddie Redmayne in The Day of The Jackal as
well as Jake Gyllenhaal in Presumed Innocent. Gary Oldman remains superb
in the fourth season of Slow Horses. All of them will be formidable
contenders and if I had my way, I’d like to see Redmayne win for his work here.
But I suspect this will be an
easy win to predict as much as TV Drama. Hiroyuki Sanada’s work in Shogun was
a masterclass from beginning to end and without him this incredible vision
could be not realized. Sanada will win easily.
Should Win: Redmayne.
Will Win: Sanada.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR
IN A DRAMA
Keri Russell can’t catch a
break, at least not yet. I suspect under normal circumstances she would be the
front-runner in this category for Season 2 of The Diplomat. And even in
a strong field including Kathy Bates and Emma D’Arcy, she’d normally win.
But Anna Sawai has given one of
the great performances in all of 2024 and everyone who watched her work as
Mariko is in awe of it. I wonder if she’ll recite a haiku when she wins.
Should Win/Will Win: Sawai.
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
The easy answer would be The Bear,
which is the most nominated series here. But there has been backlash
against the show both at the Emmys and at Season 3 in particular. For that
reason I’m inclined to think that the Golden Globes will go out of their way to
honor a series that no one questions in a comedy.
And in this case this means
giving it to the same series that the Emmys did, which is Hacks. The
series is overdue to win here; it won awards in 2022 when it wasn’t televised
and went home empty handed, albeit to the brilliant Abbott Elementary. As
formidable as the competition is, I expect Hacks to eke it out.
Should Win/Will Win: Hacks (but
they’re all good choices.)
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE
ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Jeremy Allan White has won back
to back Golden Globes -actually back to back everything for the last two
seasons. He might very well pull it out for a third straight year but since the
last actor in any series, drama or comedy; to do so was Sarah Jessica Parker back
in the late 1990s, I actually think the Globes will share the wealth.
But to who? Ted Danson is being
given the Carol Burnett Award for a lifetime in television and it’s been awhile
since he won anything in competition. Steve Martin and Martin Short still have yet
to win anything for Only Murders in the Building. Jason Segel hasn’t won
anything at all from an awards show and Adam Brody has been revolutionary in Nobody
Wants This.
For the moment my personal
preference (if I had one) would be Brody for his work as the hot rabbi. But I
actually think it is more likely to go to Jason Segel for Shrinking. There
are no bad choices here, even White, though.
Should Win: Brody.
Will Win: Segel (?)
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A
FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY
This is a formidable lineup no
question. One could make a convincing argument – and I certainly can – for any
of the six nominees. But in truth this one is no contest.
Jean Smart is both the sentimental
and critical favorite for her brilliant work in Hacks. She has won every
single award for this role save The Golden Globes at this point. Like the
character she has played brilliantly for three seasons, it’s her time.
Should Win/Will Win: Smart.
OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES
This is a formidable group of
nominated series with a valid argument for all six. That said, I think it will
come down to one of two. Last year’s sensation Baby Reindeer and this
year’s crossover critical darling The Penguin.
Both have much to recommend them
and it isn’t clear which way the Golden Globes will go: will they honor a
series of the previous season (which they did last year with Beef) or of
the one to come which has been their pattern more often this decade in 2023
with The White Lotus (they were the only awards show that got it right
on that score, for the record). It’s a tough call but I do think given the
phenomena that The Penguin is will be just enough to push it over the
top.
Should Win: Baby Reindeer/The
Penguin
Will Win: The Penguin.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A
MALE ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES
This is tougher for me by far.
Much as I’d love to see either Ewan McGregor or Andrew Scott prevail, I think
again this will come down to either of the leads of the major contenders: Colin
Farrell for The Penguin or Richard Gadd for Baby Reindeer.
This is a very tough call as
both of these series were in my top five and I can make a convincing argument
for either actor. I’m going to give the barest of edges to Gadd however, mainly
because he can’t be honored for writing
as he was at the Emmys. Throw in that Farrell has won twice at the Golden
Globes for his work in movies and I suspect the Globes will honor new blood.
Should Win: McGregor/Scott.
Will Win: Gadd.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A
FEMALE ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES
Even given the immense caliber
of the talent by the nominees (save for Kate Winslet) there is no question in
my mind who deserves to win and who almost certainly will. As extraordinary as
Jodie Foster was in Night Country, this one belongs to Kristin Milioti
for her star-making work as Sofia Falcone in The Penguin. When you give
a performance that steals the extraordinary work of Colin Farrell right out
from under him to give one of the greatest performances of the year – right up
there with Anna Sawai – then awards are in your future. I suspect Milioti will
be giving many speeches in the weeks and months to come. I think it’s going to
start here – though to be clear if Naomi Watts or Jodie Foster win, I won’t be
that unhappy.
Should Win/Will Win: Milioti.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE ON TELEVISION
I could see Ebon Moss-Bachrach
winning and I would be fine with Jack Lowden prevailing for Slow Horses. But
my heart and I suspect the Golden Globes will be with Harrison Ford for his
incredible work as Paul on Shrinking. I’ll admit it’s a bit of a stretch
but it is a masterclass and he deserves it.
Should Win: Lowden.
Will Win: Ford.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A
FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE ON TELEVISION
This is by far the toughest
category of the entire night. Jessica Gunning and Maria Colon-Zayas both won
Emmys and Gunning’s performance is the more revelatory. I have my preferences
for Dakota Fanning and I think its beyond time Alison Janney won something here
again.
My overwhelming preference is
for Hannah Einbinder, mainly because she is beyond overdue and absolutely should
have won at the Emmys not because The Bear isn’t a comedy but because
she deserved it. I think it will come down to Gunning or Einbinder and I will
give the barest of edges to Gunning.
Should Win: Gunning/Einbinder.
Will Win: Einbinder.
(Speaking of which Golden
Globes, we’ve talked about this before. Start separating supporting awards into
different categories. Start with one group for comedy and drama and another for
limited series and anthologies. Considering you’ve gone back to giving the
Carol Burnett Award, I suspect you can
see the wisdom of the old regime. That was one of the better rule changes they made
and next year follow up.)
I’ll be back on Monday to give
my reactions to the awards and the speeches. Again that’s what I care about.
That said, Nikki Glaser, I have faith in you. Try not to burn the place down.
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