My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2025 Emmy Nominations, Week 2, Day 4

 Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy

 

They expect seven nominees in this category and I'm fine with that. There is another actor in this category who has won back to back Emmys. That happened less frequently then you might think ever since Jeremy Piven went three for three in the final seasons of Entourage. Quite a few actors did  win multiple Emmys in the 2010s but Eric Stonestreet and Tony Hale didn't do it back to back. It's happened the last four years but as we will see, the odds of a three-peat have understandably dropping.

It is likely we will see a good balance of new faces and old faces in this category. I'm fine with six of the most likely contenders: I'm going on a limb for a seventh. Here we go.

 

Ike Barinholtz, The Studio

Considering how rare it is to see both a winner of Celebrity Jeopardy and someone who did well in the Tournament of Champions competing for an Emmy, I would be inclined to be in favor of Barinholtz being here for anything. But honestly Barinholtz has been one of my favorites well before that.

He has been one of the great comic utility players ever since he started work in The Mindy Project, appearing in such great series as Eastbound & Down and Mad TV. He has written for both Mindy and Mad for much of his career, worked on History of the World and created Running Point for Netflix. I'm kind of amazed he had time to play the role of Sal, Matt's friend who has to help Matt finding missing film one day and gets in office wars the next.

Barinholtz, like the show itself, has been moving up for award consideration the last few months and I couldn't be more personally thrilled for him. I don't necessarily want him to win over some of the other nominees but to be clear, I like Ike.

 

Paul W. Downs, Hacks

Last year this category was the only one Downs' didn't get a prize for. He shared in Emmys both for writing and as executive producing Hacks and considering that he's married to the showrunner Lucia Aniello, he no doubt has property is that well. Giving him an Emmy for starring in this show might be gilding the lily slightly but no one who's watched him for four seasons can deny what a master comedian he is.

Jimmy's role was basically a gag starting the first season but with each new season the creators have seen the potential in Jimmy and keep building it up. It's not just that his nervous comedy combined with the tightrope he has to walk around Deb and Ava always makes for hysterical comedy but at this point he's now his own man in a way he just hasn't been before. Indeed, much of the genius of Season 4 is expanding Jimmy's role to make his character as an agent act almost independently of the major storyline. As he continues to grow and become a force in Hollywood, is constantly surprised by how competent Kayla has become, and is always baffled by the talent he has to deal with (Dance Mom!) the next logical outgrowth is a spinoff where Jimmy and Kayla run their own agency. They're halfway there already and believe me, I'd watch.

Downs's has understandably been moving up as a frontrunner in this category since his somewhat surprising nomination last year. I know he's going to win at least one Emmy this September regardless of what happens in this category but come on, at this point we want to see him give an acceptance speech for acting. He's just good at that.

 

Harrison Ford, Shrinking

In hindsight the reason Harrison Ford wasn't nominated for Season 1 of Shrinking is because of the third and final season of Ted Lasso taking up two spots that could have gone to him. No one pretended watching his first season as Paul he absolutely didn't deserve won for demonstrating his incredible work as a comic actor.

It's clear watching his work on Shrinking we've been taken Ford for granted for forty years because he is a 'supergiant' in the world of film, connected to two of the biggest box office franchises in the history of cinema, so many blockbuster films around that period and quite a few dramatic masterpieces. His work as Paul demonstrates that we've forgotten how natural a comic actor he can be given the opportunity. Leaning in to the curmudgeon nature of his age every single line out of his mouth is often the funniest punch line imaginable because he always makes it clear he's not trying to be funny. We've also seen that he's by far the best psychiatrist that everyone says he is but is also coming to realize the mistakes he's made in life – and as we see is facing his mortality with consequences that will no doubt reverberate in future seasons.

He's already been nominated for a Golden Globe and a SAG award and earlier this month finally won his first award at the Astras for Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy over everyone in this field. I won't add the fact that he's clearly the sentimental favorite as well because this only occasionally works in favor of elder statesmen at the Emmys in general. But hopefully as was the case for not only Jean Smart but Henry Winkler and Jamie Lee Curtis, he will finally be in the winner's circle this year.

 

Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear

No one can deny Moss-Bachrach's work as Cousin Richie on this series isn't both the comic highpoint of this show as well as demonstrating the greatest character growth. By the end of the second season he had evolved far more than Carmy was willing to do by that point and that was just as clear by the end of the third season. There were many flaws in the third season of The Bear but no one is saying Moss-Bachrach's work is one of them.

The problem is, like so many of the other actors on the show this year, he has been dragged down by the decidedly mixed reactions by critics and audiences to Season 3. This was made clear as early as the Golden Globes where he was the favorite to win but ended up losing to Shogun. He was ignored by both the Critics Choice Awards and the SAG Awards and while he was still the favorite going into the awards season by this point for obvious reasons both Harrison Ford and quite a few other actors are moving ahead of him

Throw in this fact that no one has managed to win three consecutive awards in this category since Jeremy Piven for Entourage and it's looking that for the first time he'll be watching from the audience this year. He'll be nominated, no question, but for the first time in three tries he won't be the frontrunner.

 

Timothy Simons, Nobody Wants This

Simons is my long shot in this category when I should be going for Brett Goldstein or any of the supporting actors from Only Murders in the Building. I'm given him recognition in this category not just because I loved his work unconditionally in this show but because I could not stand him in what was his most famous role Jonah in Veep.

I found his character unsympathetic, stupid and loathsome: the fact that he was clearly hated by everyone including his only family did nothing to make me think better of him. Of all the characters on that show I hated whenever he showed up onscreen. That's why his work as Sasha during this show was by far the most revelatory work of the entire cast.

Sasha, like Jonah, is not particularly favored in his own family but he actually seems more balanced and okay with it. He's clearly happily married and he's accepted he's the lesser sibling. In a superb story in the series we saw him surprise even himself when he resolved a crisis his adolescent daughter thought unsolvable showing he understood social media. His relationship with Noah is clearly healthy and supportive both ways and it was kind of sweet watching the platonic friendship building between him and Morgan all season – as well as hysterical watching him hide it from his family as well.

I think Simons will get nominated down the road, if not this year then by Season 2. But by selecting him here, this is an apology of sorts. I never understood what he was capable of in Veep. Now I get what a talent he is.

 

Michael Urie, Shrinking

I wasn't surprised Urie won at the Critics Choice Awards in this category last year so much as the fact that it was the only nomination Shrinking got and it wasn't for 'a young and up and comer named Harrison Ford' as Urie credited him in his acceptance speech. And it's not like Urie's work hasn't been as much as masterclass as Ford's over the last two seasons: it's just a different kind of comedy.

Urie's work at Brian is closer to some of the characters he's played throughout his career: a mix of anxiety and narcissism with an outward cheerful optimism. But Brian is far more of a grownup than that. He and Jimmy spent Season 1 reconnecting and rebuilding their friendship and now Jimmy is willing to rely on him more when he needs him both in the law and as a friend. Jimmy has been dealing with issues of his own: being a husband and trying to see himself as a father and he has been adapting. But the series allowed him to go into darker territory when he realized the connection the drunk driver had with Alice, went with her to reconnect – but didn't tell Jimmy about it until he ended up learning in the worst possible way. The devastation of this ended up hurting everyone until the end of the season.

There are going to be a couple of actors from this incredible cast in this category (I'm going to advocate for one at the end who might slip under the radar) and Urie has more than earned the right to be here. I'd prefer Ford win but if Urie does manage to pull it off, I won't be upset.

 

Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary

I shouldn't have to advocate for Williams who has been nominated in this category every year since Abbott Elementary debuted and has already been nominated for yet another Critics Choice and Astra Award this past year. So let me just explain the highlights of Gregory this year.

He fell in love and let his dorky side shine with his soulmate Janine. He ended up almost getting in a fight with an angry parent which he did nothing to start. He learned the truth about Ava's father before Janine and realized the consequences. He did what he needed to get a golf scholarship for some of his students. When Ava was fired from her job, he was appointed principal – which he originally hoped for when he came to Abbott – and did a far better job then even he though possible. He managed to decode Ava's system for filing; a comic highlight itself. He went through an endless war with Ava's secretary where gave the great punchline. And in the season finale when he told his father he and Janine were dating, he was surprised by how his father reacted – and got the kind of blessing he'd never expected. And he did all of this with the kinds of looks at the camera that Oliver Hardy would tip his bowler too with what he could express by saying nothing.\

Now at some points the Emmys are going to have to put on their big boy pants and give him the prize he should have gotten two years ago after he won the Golden Globe and the Astra. I'm enough of a realist to know it probably won't happen but I know he's going to be nominated.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Ted McGinley, Shrinking

I think its far more likely Brett Goldstein will be nominated in this category and he more than deserves to be. But from the perspective of a character arc and everything else I want McGinley to be nominated.

Derek was more of a comic foil in Season 1, there to take the heat from Christa Miller's character as a loving husband. But in an act of profound wisdom McGinley was named a series regular and was given more time in the spotlight. We saw him give friendly advice, see him hang out with another Derek and introduce him to Gaby, offer the kind of support he need to his wife and son. He seems to let everything bounce off him. And then his wife started hanging out with a college friend he'd asked her not to and she didn't tell him. And then she kissed him. McGinley's reaction of pain and anguish as well as the rest of the season was yet another example of what a super actor he's been.

On a side note I've always been an admirer of McGinley's work and never understood why he took so much blame for tanking series in his career. (For God's sake, he was a regular on Married…With Children and it ran for eight more seasons after he joined the show!) He's apparently got a lot of sympathetic and great feedback from so many viewers over the last two seasons and he's earned it for the work he does. Come on Emmys, everybody loves a Derek and you should too.

 

Tomorrow I will wrap this week up with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy as well as some of my hopes for Outstanding Guest Actor and Actress

Why Nobody Should Really Read Much Into the Results of Last Night's The New York Mayoral Primary

 

From a chronological standpoint it makes sense why pundits look at the election of mayor of New York City as a kind of bellwether for the country. It is one of the few major offices up for election the first year after a Presidential one and it is one of the biggest cities in the United States. From a political standpoint with each new cycle it becomes more and more absurd.

It makes sense to look at the gubernatorial and statewide elections of Virginia and New Jersey after an election year but for the mayoral race of the biggest city in a state that hasn't gone Republican since Reagan won reelection, it's absurd to try and take the political temperature of the country. Those who look for it for Presidential candidates  have forgotten no mayor of any city has eventually become President since Grover Cleveland in 1884. Rudy Giuliani, Michael Bloomberg and Bill De Blasio were never able to win primaries of any kind and most had to drop out very quickly.

That's more understandable when you consider with the sole exception of Bloomberg every mayor since David Dinkins on has had his career clouded by either controversy, extra marital affairs or corruption charges  - and usually some combination of the three – by the time their first year in office is finished, And the idea that being mayor of what has been classified as 'the Ungovernable City' is nearly impossible to do and emerge untouched by the time you're running for reelection is why most of their careers are over by the time their terms are up. Throw in the fact that there is for all intents and purposes the Republican party is for all intents and purposes dead at a statewide level and that every mayoral rate has low turnout both in the primary and the general, trying to see this as tea leaves for the electorate at large is absurd.

It makes a certain sense that, particularly after last year's election, the Democrats would be looking for any sign of leadership in their party. I can assure you the mayor's office is never that place and no matter what the left is going to read into it, the results of last night's primary are not the mandate for progressivism they want it to be. I have no doubt they will argue the triumph of thirty-three year old assemblyman Zohran Mandani as an argument of the victory of progressivism over establishment candidates. That is true only by the narrowest interpretation, and only if you ignore what the establishment in this race represented.

For starters there's the incumbent. Eric Adams, in case you either don't live in New York or have been distracted by other things, was one of the most corrupt mayors in history even by the standard of New York politicians. By the fall of 2024, most of his cabinet had already resigned and the Justice Department had indicted him. Adams did not resign and they were making moves to impeach him.

Then after the election, for reasons that even by the standard of our President are baffling, the Justice department dropped all charges against Adams. The prosecutors ended up resigning in protest. What exactly the quid pro quo is remains to be seen – it is inconceivable for me there wasn't one. But Adams is no longer facing indictment and is still mayor. His one realization to how the winds were against him was that early in 2025 he announced he would not be running in the Democratic primary but rather would run as an Independent.

Adams knew very well if he tried to run as a Democrat he would lose and lose badly. The polls were already bad for him before that. But in what is the tradition for New York politicians, he refused to let such thing as a Justice Department investigation allow him to end his political career.

New York City was facing an incredible crisis that made you wonder how things could possibly get worse – and then right on cue Andrew Cuomo decided to run for mayor.

It's not uncommon for disgraced New York politicians to try and run for elected office after being forced to resign: Anthony Weiner and Eliot Spitzer both tried to do sue in the 2013 election. But the baggage Cuomo has would fill a Mack Truck even before you consider the irony of a man who was forced to resign from the Governorship because of a possible Justice department investigation trying to run to fill the seat of the man who should have resigned because of an actual Justice Department investigation. As I said in an article I wrote a couple of years back about him:

I think Andrew, unlike his father, had his eyes on the White House and had been biding his time. I think his liberalism is not one out of belief but designed to appeal  It helped matters the National Democratic Party was gutted in 2010 and he was one of the few Democratic governors to win election at all and held against it in 2014. I suspected he was going to  run in 2016 but I wasn’t shocked. And I think he was only progressive as far as it affected his national profile: he wanted to have a good liberal record when he ran for President.

…It did not shock me to learn that Cuomo refused to listen to state health officials  (during the pandemic) and that so many resigned. The confirmation came when we learned that during July and August Cuomo was working on a book in which he proclaimed victory over the pandemic that came out just a month before the 2020 election. The fact that he argued New York had ‘confronted and defeated’ the virus, even though the state had the highest per capita hospitalization rate in the country showed that everything he had done was purely to promote his brand. He no doubt thought Trump was going to win reelection and was setting himself up as the face of the Democratic Party in 2024.

Of course by the end of 2020, all of the horror stories about Andrew Cuomo as a sexual predator had come out. In less than three months, eight women had come forward. Despite all of allegations and the continuing investigation Cuomo refused to resign until the possibility of criminal charges came. Yet even now there is no sign that he intends to step back from public life…"

In many ways I think Cuomo is the New York Democrat equivalent of Trump:  everything he's achieved is because of who his family was, he has no loyalty to anything except himself, he will manipulate any situation or crisis to his own advantage. The difference is while Trump has managed to win over a vast majority of the national electorate, Cuomo has only grudgingly won that of New York's. And he is not worshipped, nor is he admired, respected or even tolerated by that electorate during this period as governor. We just figured we were stuck with him and we really wished he go away – something that Cuomo does not seem willing to accept.

So in that context Mandani's win last night was not so much compared to a move for progressive but the Republican Presidential primary in 2016. Many voters were willing to accept Trump because he was an unknown political quantity compared to his major competition Ted Cruz, who even after four years was known. No one knows anything about Mandani but they know Andrew Cuomo and they hate him. That was clear with the electorate leading up to primary day.

I could not bring myself to vote either man on my ranked choice ballot (I will get to that particular joy in another article) and I'm not particularly looking forward to election day in five months' time. What New Yorkers will face is fear of the unknown versus fear of the known. Because even though Cuomo conceded before the ranked choice voting confirmed Mandani was the winner, he has made it clear he might run as an independent in a few months' time. Considering that Adams will be on the ballot no matter what, for the first time in my lifetime the mayoral race is wide open. It might even lead to an opportunity for Republican Curtis Silwa, another figurehead from the 1990s who is basically what amounts to a major Republican in Manhattan. He was their standard bearer in 2021 and was routed by Adams that time out, barely able to get 25 percent of the vote. This time out, it may be enough to win.

And the fact that Mandani was able to get 43 percent of the vote against Cuomo – who still got 36 percent of the vote –  speaks very much to the limit of the progressive reach even in New York City. This is by far the lowest winning percentage any Democrat for either state or city wide office has gotten in a primary for a very long time.

It took 750,000 votes for Adams to win in 2021. It remains to be seen if Mandani can get this many votes from the Democratic establishment, particularly with Adams (and possibly Cuomo) drawing votes away as an independent. He'll also have to win over the 21 percent of Democratic voters who didn't vote for either him or Cuomo. And the fact is he is a far left candidate who could not receive the endorsement of any major New York publication, TV station or political official save for AOC. Is it possible they will unite around him in the months to come? That's going to be asking a lot from a man who is one of the eight members of the socialists in Office bloc. And nearly 361,840 people voted for Cuomo last night. I can't imagine they would be willing to swallow Mamdani now and one could see them voting for Cuomo as an independent.

 It's very difficult to believe that a city and state that is more conservative then it's perennial blue status on the map would be willing to elect a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, whose policies are considered 'magical realism. Add to this the fact that he is a prominent supporter of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement in a state with a sizable Jewish-American bloc  - and that he refused to sign the annual New York Assembly resolution celebrating Israel's founding this past year isn't going to help him. Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush found out just how much those remarks came back to bite them last year; it's impossible to imagine they won't do the same this year.

Nor is that his only problem: he has also gone out of his way to make enemies of the MTA, supports a 2 percent tax raise on those who earn more than a million dollars a year on city residents and in a city where the police are revered has argued for defunding them. He also argued to eliminate property tax exemptions for NYU and Columbia and that's not going to help him with the academic version of the left. Mamdani will have to move to the center just to win these people back – and moving to the center is something progressives are famously opposed to doing.

And it is one thing to elect someone in their 20s to Congress; to elect someone this inexperienced with this radical a point of view even in one of the bluest cities in New York might be too much for the democratic voters of New York to be willing to swallow. And we can tolerate a lot in our mayors behavior. But those eccentricities are almost always due to their personalities; their policies that's not the kind of thing that wins in New York.

To be clear it is only June. Mamdani will have five months to try and convince the electorate to vote for him. And to do that, he'll have to win over the more conservative sections of Staten Island, the Bronx and Queens where he lost horribly and much of Brooklyn. Being the Democratic nominee for Mayor has guaranteed victory in three straight elections. Mamdani won because he had no real baggage against an opponent who had a truckload. The problem is he now has to go from being anti-establishment to getting the establishment behind him. Considering who he is and all the other factors, that's a very big if.

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2025 Emmy Nominations, Week 2, Day 3

 

There is an out-and-out frontrunner in this category and for all intents and purposes there has been since January at least. That said there is a remote possibility the ground is shifting in recent weeks. In either case this is for the fourth consecutive year going to have the most formidable group of nominees for some of the best comedies on the air. I think there's a decent chance there will be a tie, so I'm going for six names in this list – though one of them may not be who you think.

Here we go.

 

Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This

I said in my original review of Nobody Wants This is that the best joke on the series is that no one seems to want good things to happen to Kristen Bell. This is the opposite feeling that anybody whose grown up watching Bell (as she has in fact grown up on television) knows that she has been the biggest delight on TV in the 21^st century. From her breakout role as Veronica Mars to her voiceover work on Gossip Girl to four masterful seasons on The Good Place to her hosting the SAG Awards this year there is nothing Bell can't do on TV – except win an Emmy.

Bell, like the show she is a part of, dominated the end of year award nominations for her wonderful work as Joanne, the co-host of a podcast about sex who falls in love with a hot rabbi and finds herself question everything about relationships and her faith. We watch her in a sex shop, we see her going to a Hebrew camp, we see her uncomfortable with her family, trying to win over Noah's family, doing everything in her power to be loved and as always being hysterical and adorable – and as has been the case for the last decade, filthy mouthed. (Of course on this show, her obscenities aren't adjusted.)

I would happily watch Bell read the phone book because I know she could make it fun. I would like her to win an Emmy someday but I'll settle for her being nominated.

 

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

Quinta Brunson has nothing left to prove. She's already made history as the first African-American to win an Emmy for both for writing and acting as well as well as the first woman. She has a shelf full of other awards for her wok on Abbott, whether they are Golden Globes, SAG Awards, WGA Awards or Image Awards. She doesn't need any more Emmy nominations but she's going to pick up another three this year anyone because she's the writer, director and star of one of the best shows on television. I don't need to say anything else in her favor… but I will.

We spent much of Season 4 watching Janine in the world of her love with Gregory which had almost no hiccups at all this year after the start of the season. We saw her try to deal with lice, illnesses, the district's nonsense, bribes, Ava being fired, trying to help Ava get her job back, being pushed off, then watching as Ava got her job back with not that much help. And of course we saw her win over the hardest case of all, Gregory's supposedly humorless father, in the season finale.

We're going to be seeing Brunson at these shows for the foreseeable future, including the inevitable day when Abbott Elementary finally wins for Best Comedy Series at the Emmys. You know why she's here; you love her, you know she's doesn't need to prove anything.

 

Ayo Edebiri, The Bear

As The Bear goes, so does Ayo Edebiri. In 2023 she was the breakout star managing to win Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy at the January 2024 Emmys. During the end of year awards Edebiri managed to win every Best Lead Actress in a Comedy in sight. Then the following September every acting category The Bear had a nominee in ending up winning at the Emmys – except Edebiri. When Jean Smart won Outstanding Actress in a Comedy, it signaled the shift that meant Hacks was going to win that year and The Bear wasn't.

It was actually going downhill ever since. The Bear's third season was the poorest received so far in its run and while some cast members managed to keep having great moments Sydney was not one of them. By this point so much of her relationship with Carmy on the show was increasingly becoming stale and the show was doing better with its other two major female characters – Tina and Sugar – then it did for her.

The dominoes have been falling ever since: for the first time she was not nominated by the Critics' Choice Awards for her performance and she lost at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards. There is little doubt she will be nominated in this category – and just as likely for directing as well -  but her chances of winning in any form have dropped tremendously. Edebiri's moment is far from over but there's a decent chance she may not win another award for her work on The Bear again. She'll win other awards to be sure but not this.

 

 

Bridget Everett, Somebody Somewhere

This is my longshot. It would be so easy for me to put Selena Gomez here and she will very likely be here instead of her. But unlikely all the other nominees on this list, Somebody Somewhere has aired its final season and like the show, this is Everett's last chance.

Everett has been nominated by other awards shows over the years – the Critics Choice Awards, the Astras, even the TCA's but she's never gotten an Emmy nomination. At a fundamental level I understand why: her work has never been as laugh out loud hysterical as so many of the performers who do get nominated, nor as dark or probing as some of the other shows. It's quiet and wistful, a story of a Kansan trying to find her way in a town with misfits, trying to adjust after the death of a sister and the often tricky relationship she has with the living one, trying to find out if she's worthy of friendship or love. These are not life or death struggles the way every other character in comedies seems to deal with and while there are some times farcical moments, they are gentle like the show itself. But Sam, like Everett, is a force of nature who has an inferiority complex. Life is one step forward, one step back, the triumphs small in the grand scheme of things.

I'm not naïve enough to think Everett, even if she were nominated, has a snowball 's chance in hell of winning. But after watching her for three wonderful, sweet seasons, I know she's earned the chance to be there. I really want it for Sam. I want it for Everett.

 

Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face

The first real  crack in the inevitability of Jean Smart's fourth Emmy came two weeks ago at the Astras when Natasha Lyonne managed to defeat her for the second season of Poker Face. It shocked me because I didn't think anyone could be smart, not because Lyonne doesn't deserve to win.

To be clear Lyonne has already made history in 2023 when she joined such pillars as Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Allison Janney and Jean Smart herself when she was nominated for an Emmy for three series.  Lyonne was also nominated in the comedy category each time, though none of the series she's starred in – and in two cases, been a major creative force behind – have ever fit easily in the comedy category. Orange Is The New Black eventually shifting into the drama category, Russian Doll is an exercise in sci-fi as much as comedy and Poker Face is essentially a mystery anthology with Lyonne as the constant.  There's also an argument as to how much acting Lyonne is doing in each character she plays: Charlie Cale is just another Natasha Lyonne archetype. But no one cares about that because it's so much fun watching Lyonne, I mean Charlie, travel across the country ending up involved in murder mysteries with the guest star of the week, know that they're lying, gets them arrested and then leaves town.

You could argue that Charlie is as much an instrument of chaos and the cause of her own misfortune as we saw in the first season and again in the second. You could argue she's more drawn these kinds of criminals and that she should learn from her mistakes. But again, who cares because it's so much fun watching her speed through society, stumbling into bloody messes.

Lyonne, honestly, deserves to win the Emmy more than some of the other nominees including Smart herself: she has nothing to show for work. I think the odds are high that she'll come up empty this time around but I know, like Charlie, she'll come out on top eventually.

 

Jean Smart, Hacks

You would think having won three Emmys in three tries Smart would be incapable of topping herself. You'd think after winning every major award for acting at the end of the year – for the second time – we'd stop underestimating the ability Smart has with Deb Vance. Smart keeps finding ways to prove us wrong.

Finally having gotten her dreams at the end of Season 3, Deb is now on the biggest stage of all and under a bigger microscope than she's been under her entire career. And as is frequently the case Deb far too often undercuts herself. Her feud with Ava lands her the wrong kind of attention with the network. Her behavior towards her writers leads her the complaints of HR. She manages to succeed above her wildest dreams – and then when faced with a decision to make a sacrifice, choosing to give up her dream and may very well be back at the bottom again. Is it any wonder what might have happened in Asia?

Smart has been the favorite in this category even before Season 4 debuted and I think it will be very difficult for her to not repeat this year. The competition keeps getting more formidable for Smart with each year and as I've just illustrated, this is going to be her toughest field yet. But I've given up underestimating Smart's capacity to win against formidable competition. One does so at their own peril.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Kathryn Hahn, Agatha All Along

Let's not kid ourselves. If the geniuses at Disney Plus would have submitted Agatha for Best Limited Series I wouldn't have to write this because she'd be a lock to get a nomination there. Instead for whatever absurdity they put it in the comedy category. Hahn was able to get some nominations from the Golden Globes and the Spirit Awards and indeed quite a few other groups. But this is an incredibly crowded field of incredible talent and the odds are she'll be squeezed out, so I have to pitch for her.

And I shouldn't have too. Playing the role that won her so many awards while playing this character on Wandavision her work as she tried to make her way through a world just as bizarre as the one of that series had that same great shows mix of genres, including comedy and profundity. It's the kind of series that yet again proves that limited series is a better field for comic books than films can be. In a perfect world Hahn should be fighting it out with Cristin Milioti for Best Actress in a Limited Series.

But she's not. Instead she's in the same place that Hahn has been in so many times over the years in her work in television: always brilliant and nearly certain to be overlooked for a nomination. It might happen anyway – the last few years the Emmys have started to recognize Hahn's worth – and there's a good chance she'll be nominated in a different category. (See Outstanding Supporting Actress) But this was another notch in Hahn's formidable belt and it deserves recognition.

 

Tomorrow I move on to Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy. There's going to be a good mix of the old and the new this year.

 

The White Lotus Season 3 Retrospective: Why This Season Demonstrates Why The Series And Maybe Television Itself Is Evolving

 

Warning Spoilers for Season 3 of The White Lotus Below

This piece requires a bit more of an introduction then usual. Don't worry, I'll get to who died eventually.

I think Peak TV made a critical shift in 2013. I don't mean the arrival of Netflix and streaming; I mean in the kind of shows that we started to consider masterpieces.

So much of the great television of the first decade of the 21^st century was based in the struggles of the working class as much as it was the antiheroes. All of HBO's successful dramas of this period – not just The Sopranos, Deadwood and The Wire but OZ, Six Feet Under and Big Love – were about working class people who were dealing with either the death of the American dream or trying to find a place in society despite it. Shows like The Shield and Breaking Bad showed the dark side of it, Mad Men showed the falsity of it and series like The Good Wife and Parenthood dealt with the people who work in it. Similarly the most successful comedies on both cable and broadcast also dealt with its flaws whether it was Weeds and so many of the female led Showtime dramedies it led to, the workplace comedies such as The Office, 30 Rock and Scrubs, or the family centric comedies like Everybody Loves Raymond and Modern Family.

Then around 2012 this began to change, not just with Netflix's House of Cards but comedies like Veep and dramas like Scandal. Suddenly we went from watching working class people to the rich and powerful doing horrible things. This was felt mostly in drama and cable rather than streaming: we saw it in Silicon Valley and House of Lies on cable; we saw it on shows like Empire and Scream Queens. There were, of course, many exceptions – Better Call Saul, The Americans and American Crime remained committed to the idea of the lie of the American dream and The Good Place argued for a moral lifestyle even in the afterlife. During this period I should add streaming was arguing for more of the working class ethos in shows such as Orange is the New Black and Transparent. But by and large a nastiness and unpleasantness in so many dramas and comedies emerged and much of it was centered on the rich and powerful. And to be clear, all of the shows I mentioned were greenlit before the 2016 election. This was not a case of art reflecting life.

During the next four years so much of the most celebrated television doubled down on the unpleasantness of the rich and powerful. HBO led the way again and not in a good way. Westworld very quickly became a show about how the wealthy and powerful were controlling society and willing to use hosts to indulge themselves. The Righteous Gemstones dealt with a wealthy family of dumb televangelists (in fairness creator Danny McBride was laughing with them as much as at them) Euphoria decided to make high school essentially a hotbed for drugs and sex. All of this before we even get to Succession. Again there were exceptions even on HBO  - Insecure, Big Little Lies -  but before the pandemic the network was really doubling down on the behavior of rich, powerful, white people doing bad things.

It is easy to consider Mike White's The White Lotus more of the same and certainly its first two seasons were more than willing to emphasize the cruel comedy of it. This was a show where in its first season one of the guests could accidentally kill the concierge at the summation of a weeklong feud and not only not go to prison but go back home with his wife with no consequences. You spent much of the first two season laughing at these at the very least 'five percent' who came to these lavish, exotic locations and observed the luxury of Hawaii or Rome as if they were at a Holiday Inn.

This was, for the record, incredibly entertaining at times; definitely more so than watching Succession. But even when it was at its funniest you couldn't escape the possibility of the same reason many people were enjoying it. The main reason millions seemed to watch the Roy family season after season was because so many people liked seeing these Masters of the Universe as miserable and directionless as the rest of us. I agree there were certain elements of family struggles and Shakespearean elements but it was also because this was a series that was originally supposed to be based on the Murdoch family and when it debuted most of its audience had a grudge against them a mile high. Seeing them being incompetent and miserable season after season has to have had a certain amount of schadenfreude for those of us who were living in a post-2016 world. And White makes it clear that many of the guests voted for Trump, probably more than once. (This is implied again during Season 3.)

So whatever comedy we enjoyed during the first two seasons not only had a great nasty streak to it, particularly as we saw these wealthy people suffer both in their rooms or often receive a karmic justice. I suspect that was part of the joy that so many viewers found out of Tanya, who Jennifer Coolidge portrayed brilliantly in the first two seasons. That said, you had to let this kind of clueless exterior and her comic delivery set aside the fact that Tanya was basically a narcissist who had no real respect for the working class (we saw it with Belinda in Season 1 and her assistant in Season 2) and was so thick about how things worked it took her until her last moments to realize 'the gays are trying to murder me'. I didn't mourn her death the same way I mourned Armond's in Season 1. Armond was a victim of the privileged babies as much as his own foolishness. Tanya was a victim of her own stupidity, pure and simple.

It's also why I reject the theories going through the first two seasons that there were 'winners' or 'losers'. With the critical exception of Tanya, none of the guest lost anything they didn't have in the first place. They were selfish and narrowminded when they came there; they were that way when they left. There's hope for the younger guests each season that the experience might have changed them but none of the others. And the idea that the sex workers triumphed because they managed to extort them for as much money as possible in Season 2, it would be harder to take candy from babies. They had everything they came when they left.

And it is for that very reason that I think the third season of The White Lotus demonstrates the evolution of Mike White's vision. Because for the first time we're not only seeing that wealth can't paper over so many of the bigger problems characters have, we're also seeing the characters facing consequences that are going to resonate when they come back home.

This is best represented with the Ratliff family. During the season patriarch Timothy (Jason Isaacs) learns that his company is being raided by the FBI, that his fortune is being seized and that when he comes home, he will be headed to prison. He spends the entire season unable to come to grips with that reality, medicating himself with his wife's Lorazepam, drinking himself into a stupor, and increasingly considering more violent ends, first a suicide and then when he learns his family can't picture life without money, killing them off and then himself.

We see each of the Ratliff's laid bare in this same way. Victoria makes it clear with each day, not only her own personal prejudices – which she extends to her own family – but that she can't imagine a life without money. Saxon (Patrick Schwarzenegger) starts out the series as an alpha male but when it becomes clear to the women he's trying to impress how completely shallow he is, he realizing he has nothing but his career. Lochlan spends the entire series following around his family with no clear path forward. Piper has misled the family as to why they've come her – she wants to join a Buddhist monastery – but after one day she gives up on it. (It is implied Lochlan's desire to follow her there is an influence on it.) None of them can imagine a life other than the one they have which fills Timothy with increasing despair.

It is this which leads him to make an attempt to have his family die in a mass suicide, save for Lochlan who claims he can live without money. At the last moment Tim chickens out and decides to face the music. Despite the fact that Lochlan nearly dies as a result of his carelessness he still decides to tell his family the truth with the confidence that they're strong enough to move forward. It's not clear if this faith is warranted, given their behavior throughout the series – Victoria's comments to Piper when she says she can't give things up makes it very clear she might end up given her family smoothies after all this – but even the idea of a patriarch believing in his family is unheard of in three seasons of this show. (And considering Rick's story it's very telling in that sense.)

 

 

The saga of Rick plays in a different method. Rick has come to Thailand for one reason only: to find Rick Hollinger, the owner. He believes this man had his father killed and ruined his life. It seems that everything he has done ever since then and whatever success he has enjoyed has been negated by this despair.

Played extraordinarily by Walton Goggins, Rick is the first character we've seen on this show where wealth has brought him nothing. He feels fundamentally broken and can't find a way to function and have human relationships. All he wants is to confront Hollinger – and when he does, rather than kill him, he just pushes him over and runs away like a child. At the end of that episode, watching him party we see the first genuine smile cross his face in the entire series.

Chelsea (Aimee Lou Wood) is also a new kind of character to The White Lotus. She's the first guest who means what she says and has no guile. This clearly annoys Rick during the first half of the series but in a show where even family relationships are always dysfunctional, it's striking to see someone so devoted to Rick to the point that while she's willing to go on a party with a female friend she just met, she won't cheat on him. And she has the ability to say what she thinks honestly during the series: she doesn't judge anyone for their sexual behavior and when she tells Saxon exactly the kind of man he is, it is the final straw that breaks him in a way the night of debauchery (which viewers know about but I won't reveal the twisted nature of it) had just started. Chelsea is the first purely good person we've met on The White Lotus since we met Belinda in the first season. (I'll get to her arc below.) And that of course makes everything in the season finale all the more tragic.

It’s harder to figure out the saga of the three blondes through much of the season. Jacklyn (Michelle Monaghan) has been paying for her two friends Harper (Leslie Bibb) and Laurie (Carrie Coon) to come on what she describes as a 'victory tour'. Early on Laurie claims that Jacklyn is a narcissist and while we initially think its back-biting, it becomes clearer with each day that there's something behind. This is true at the night of their partying when Jacklyn spend the night trying to force Valentine on Laurie and when the night ends, invites him into her bed and denies it when she is called on it. Jacklyn clearly does need the spotlight to be on her at all times and she can't stand being called on it by anybody.

But in their final dinner together Laurie does something we've really never seen to this point on The White Lotus and that’s pour her heart out to people she cares about. In a sad and searing monologue Laurie makes it clear just how unhappy much of her life to this point has been and that while her friends clearly have a support system to rely on, Harper and Jaclyn are hers. It's the kind of emotional statement that has been unheard of and would otherwise seem out of place but Coon's talent as an actress completely sells it and makes us believe that when this is over the three of them have survived their stay at the resort not just physically but emotionally which is far harder.

What makes this season a masterpiece is the final act of Rick and Chelsea. In a way Rick's fate is as much a consequence of his actions as Armond's was in Season 1 and Tanya's in Season 2, but the difference is how White tells it this time. We see a Rick in the final episode ready to move on and change in a way we just haven't seen the entire series. He wants to walk away when Hollinger confront him at the resort and he really tries – he goes to see the meditation woman who believed in him before and when she tells him to wait he really does make an effort to control himself. But ultimately the sight of Hollinger cavorting with the three blondes and his wife is too much for him to overcome. He walks up to him and impulsive shoots him – and as a result plays a far more horrible price.

Chelsea's death is the first purely tragic death in the entire series history because of her innate goodness and her belief in the better part of Rick's nature. She believed in him even when he didn't believe in himself, she went to help try and save him from himself and as a result death finally catches up with her. When Rick stands over the body of Chelsea we see a portrayal of grief that rivals almost everything Goggins has done as an actor over the year's – I was reminded of how Shane stood over the body of Lem after he killed him in utter grief in the fifth season of The Shield, the first moment he demonstrated he was one of the great actors on that show. And much like that character, he met his end after losing his family – the father he never knew he had, the woman always loved him.

Now I must come to the two recurring characters from past seasons: Belinda (Natasha Rothwell) and Greg (Jon Gries). In a sense they represent the extremes of what money does to you when you get it. It's telling for me that at the end of Season 3 Greg looks pretty much the way he did when we first met him back in Season 1, utterly miserable. He now has all the money in the world, a woman who will grant his every desire, safety from the law – but he seems just as unhappy as before. My original theory that for some character the resort is purgatory would apply to Greg and in a sense this is his karma.

Some might consider that Belinda's attitude in the final episode when she not only gets Tanya's money as she hoped she would in the first season but actually echoes her exact words to someone she made a promise to when she was betrayed would show the corrupting power of wealth. There are, however, two distinct differences. First unlike all the other characters she has spent her life as a working class woman and knows how to appreciate it better and second she has a far more caring relationship with her son then all the other parent child relationships we've seen to this point. I find it hard to believe wealth will ruin that (particularly given how Zion acted when he thought she was dead in the season premiere).

Some might object to the idea of The White Lotus changing from a frothy drama mixed with farce to pretty hard on the drama side this season. But there's only so long White could go to that well without it starting to grow stale. This is a sign that White is willing to adapt to make a better show. It may not be as much fun as watching Jake Lacy and Murray Bartlet go to war over a hotel suite or Jennifer Coolidge mince cluelessly about the world but there are some benefits.

Besides it's not like there was no humor in Season 3. Any show that can have Sam Rockwell show up, say he has gone from an alcoholic and sexual deviant to a Buddhist monk, convert back after ten minutes being drawn into Rick's drama, then be seen at the end of the series praying, is definitely fun. (By the way Mike, next season can we have him be our recurring character – or maybe a spinoff) Parker Posey was hysterical all the way through as Victoria as someone who plays every cliché of the ugly American and then dials it up to eleven. (By the way, she would have raised money for everyone of Trump's run for President but never voted herself – its just not a woman's place.) And Natasha Rothwell was particularly hysterical in the second half of the season as she realized who Greg was, what he had done, and what that might mean for her – clearly she felt she was a black character in an 80s horror film and she knew what happened to them. (Why else would she want to get the hell out of Thailand?)

I approve of The White Lotus changing in this fashion not just because its putting its place in the firmament of great television but because it may signal a shift in how dramas are changing during this new era of TV. We've seen the shift move more towards gentler, friendlier comedies over the decade; we may be seeing that shift in drama too, although there hasn't been a consistent pattern to be noted. Whatever the reason I do celebrate the change for one big reason: at least in some parts of the world, the guests just can't get away with murder. That's progress.

My score: 5 stars.

 

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2025 Emmy Nominations, Week 2, Day 2

 

Outstanding Lead Actor in A Comedy

 

Almost since the 21^st century began we've had a lot of back to back winners in this category. Tony Shalhoub in Monk won 3 times in the 2000s. Alec Baldwin went back to back for 30 Rock in 2008 and 2009. Jim Parsons won four times won back to back in 2010 and 2011 and then again in 2013 and 2014. Jeffrey Tambor, 2015 and 2016. Bill Hader in 2018 and 2019.

So far in the 2020s, there has been little difference: Jason Sudeikis went back to back for Ted Lasso and Jeremy Allan White twice in 2024. But for the first time going into the Emmys there is no clear frontrunner the way there was in the awards leading up to the Emmys. Indeed there's no consensus at all leading up to the nominations which means the race is wide-open in  a way in hasn't been in a long time.

Supposedly there are only five slots available but that was true last year as well and we ended up with six. I will make the same assumptions this time around. Here we go.

 

Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This

Ever since he debuted as the 'hot rabbi' back in October Adam Brody has been at the center of pop culture in a way he hasn't been in nearly two decades. And from the moment he appears on screen as Noah, it's obvious why.

It might be an overstatement to say that this is the best work Brody has done in his long career but it is clearly his most endearing character. This is a man who wants to be a good Jew, a good son and a good rabbi and all of those are thrown into question the minute he meets Joanne. ("Are you sure there's no Jewish blood in you anywhere?" he asks on their first meeting.) This is the only real reaction any red-blooded person can see when they meet Kristen Bell and its clear Noah will follow her anywhere – even into a sex shop to get a dildo for her podcast. Naturally they fall head over heels in love, naturally their relationship is not taken seriously by anyone, and naturally Noah can only become more devoted to her anyway that by the end of the season, he almost seems willing to renounce his religion for her.

Brody took the Critics Choice Award for Best Actor in a Comedy and was an early front runner to prevail for the Emmy at the start of the year. A lot has changed since then and the competition has gotten fiercer so the question is, will the Emmys give to the hot rabbi what they wouldn't to the hot priest?

 

Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building

Was it shocking that Steve Martin was ignored by the Emmys for a nomination two years ago? I imagine he's just say to Charles Hayden-Savage "Welcome to my world." They made up for it last year of course but one could just as easily see it happen once more because that seems to be the world of both Martin and the characters he plays. Such is true of Charles, who now has to deal with the fact that his long time body double is the most recent victim.

That Charles is now back in Hollywood getting the stardom he never quite had even in his prime is another sense of art imitating life: I can imagine there may be another generation of viewers who only know Martin because of his work on Only Murders. But that is, as always, more than enough. As always Martin brings his conventional set of humor to Charles in every situation, part with slapstick, part with pathos, always feeling put-upon. Even now as Eugene Levy gets to play him onscreen he has to deal with another actor choosing to say he's not playing himself right.

Martin is one of the few actors in this category who hasn't won an award of some type so far this year which might lead to him being counted out. But don't ever do that to Steve Martin.

 

Seth Rogen, The Studio

Ever since it debuted this past March Seth Rogen has been rising in the Emmys odd like a rocket. This is hardly surprising for a man who has been gifted in not one but two failed Judd Apatow series (though he's not the only likely nominee in this category who is, see below) who has become one of the great comic stars of so many films over the years and who has been making his way back to television during the last few years. He showed his range in Pam & Tommy a few years back but The Studio is where Rogen lives in every way.

Rogen has written and directed many of the episodes in this Apple Series in which he plays the lead character. Nothing new for comedians in this era of Peak TV and its worked out for Bill Hader and Donald Glover. Like them his new studio head Matt Remick surrounds himself with the best and the brightest, both onscreen and in the writers room: frequent collaborator Evan Goldberg has cowritten and directed many of the episodes he has with him. And like so many characters he has played Matt is very much a Seth Rogen archetype: so nebbish he feels awkward giving correct to legends such as Ron Howard even though he's his boss, always awkward among so many celebrities who simply play themselves (and who Rogen himself has known for years)

Rogen prevailed at the Astras in Best Lead Actor in A Comedy earlier this month ahead of competition he will no doubt be facing down the road. He's been nominated before and it would be a way to honor the great show Freaks & Geeks except for…

 

Jason Segel, Shrinking

Yep, it's the other Judd Apatow alum from two comedies and several of his films who's also one of the writers and producers of an Apple TV comedy that's going to contend for Emmys this year. Segel has been nominated in this category for his work for Shrinking – which was to be clear his first Emmy nomination. Segel of course has a hit comedy in his back pocket already and spent much of the remainder of the 2010s doing comedies. He came back to TV to appear in the undervalued HBO series Winning Time and in his free time  helped executive produce and star in the first season of Shrinking as Jimmy.

Segel's work is as dark and layered as Jeremy Allan White's work in The Bear but unlike Carmy Jimmy has both support around him, a family and a system to help him through his trauma. He spent most of Season 1 rebuilding his life to have it come back to bite him at the end of the season and he's spent Season 2 often making things worse (with FWB Gaby at the start of the season) his relationship with his next door neighbors and most critically when he learned the secret that his daughter was keeping from him for much of the season. This led to him reliving the trauma again in the brilliant flashback episode 'Last Thanksgiving' and we've watched him rebuild since.

Segel has been one of the great performers in TV for more than a quarter of a century and he deserves to repeat in the nominations as much as anyone else in this category. I hope they find room for both Apatow veterans here.

 

Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building

It was a pleasant surprise when Martin Short managed to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy for his exceptional work in Only Murders this past February. He has won a few prizes for his work over the series run – an Astra here or there – but he has been shutout by the Emmys to this point. And not just for this show but throughout his career: while he has won for writing and producing he has never won once for acting.

It's an exaggeration to say Oliver is the best work he's done on television giving that he's been part of the medium since his years on SCTV. It's even an exaggeration that it's the role he shows the most range. But it's clearly the most honest work he's done and his character has been growing for a long time. As we see him continue the sweet relationship he started with that failed actress from last season (will we see Meryl Streep back in the Emmy hunt) as he goes Hollywood and has Zack Gallifankis play him onscreen and as he works to try and solve yet another murder, he's not only always hysterical funny in every scene but often brutally honest about his character's flaws.

Currently Short is the frontrunner by a hair in this category though that will almost certain change after the nominations. But I would love to see him up there.

 

Jeremy Allan White, The Bear

When Jeremy Allan White won his second consecutive Emmy completing his second straight sweep of every major lead actor award, it seemed like he was going to dominate this category forever. However by that time the third season of The Bear had dropped and the response was not nearly as favorable. Indeed many began to wonder if White himself was becoming part of the problem, particularly after the opening episode, which was both brilliant and baffling to many of the show's biggest fans.

When White managed to win his third consecutive last January it seemed like critics might have overcome it. But that was not only the only Golden Globe The Bear won that year, it was essentially skunked for awards for the rest of the end-of-year awards shows. The show will no doubt do well at the Emmy nominations this year and White will certainly be nominated again, but it will be due to the Emmys laziness more than the overall quality of his work.

There are patches when we see much of the brilliance of White in Carmy this season but at this point his combination of unrelenting drive in the pursuit of perfection mixed with trauma is becoming tiresome even to the characters around him. White will be nominated to be sure but I find it highly unlikely he will three-peat.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

David Allan Grier, St. Denis Medical

I considered making a case for Brian Jordan Alvarez and The English Teacher in this category but by this point I think the raves have been overshadowed by the allegations against Alvarez himself. There are better reasons to honor Grier for his marvelous work in this brilliant comedy.

For one thing Grier has never been recognized by the Emmys at all, though he has won other awards from other groups. For another, he has received nominations from the Critics Choice awards and the Astra this past few months. And for another, his work as the curmudgeonly but honestly good hearted Ron is kind of revelatory because it shows a humanity he hasn't gotten much of a chance to play on television or indeed his career. It helps that every line he says and even the delivery is a comic high point.

Hell, we’ve got two legendary sketch comedy veterans competing in this category. If we got room for SNL and SCTV, why not one of the original gangstas from In Living Color?

 

Tomorrow I move on to Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy where we all know who'll win – or do we?

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2025 Emmy Nominations, Week 2, Day 1

 

Outstanding Comedy Series

 

Last year Outstanding Comedy Series was far and away the strongest of the three major categories. And if anything this year will be even more contentious. With Curb Your Enthusiasm and Reservation Dogs finished and Palm Royale ineligible this would leave open three slots for contenders in multiple categories. Furthermore several of the shows that made an impressive debut before the strike returned for brilliant second seasons and we have a far more impressive lot of freshmen comedy series than we have since the beginning of the decade.

Four of last year's frontrunners I have no problem with coming back this year, even though I haven't seen two of them yet. I have zero problem with two of the most likely newcomers as freshmen, though I have yet to see one of them and I have no problem with the most likely newcomer. As for the last spot, that one I'm going to go off the reservation.

Here are my predictions for Outstanding Comedy Series.

 

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

You wouldn't think after four seasons of reviving the network comedy there would be any ways left for Quinta Brunson's remarkable series to astonish viewers. And it's almost like Brunson goes out of her way each season to find new and hysterical ways to prove us all wrong.

After three years of simmering Janine and Gregory's romance has finally become full bloomed and none of the sexual tension has gone away. If anything this new couple keeps finding ways to be adorkable in all the right ways possible and Tyler James Williams keeps finding ways to make us love him. We watched the show deal with a golf course coming and the owner being willing to give them 'bribes' in order to make their lives better. Of course the district found out and took them away and in a stunning turn of events Ava lost her job. Ava landed on her feet – because she's Ava, of course – but even though Gregory was doing a more than competent job, everyone rallied to bring her back. At the end of the penultimate episode when we found out just how much not only the teachers but the student body and the entire community loved Ava, it was one of the most moving – and still funny – episodes of the series so far.

The show continues to find way to make us laugh, whether it's having the first white student show up voluntarily at the school, having the cast of It's Only Sunny In Philadelphia show up as 'volunteers' (I can't wait for that crossover either) finally meeting Ava's father (Keith David), Melissa's family or the wonderful season finale at the Please Touch museum where we actually saw how much the student body loves their teachers and how much the teachers are growing after four years.

I know at some point Abbott is going to drop in quality. It just hasn't happened yet and it doesn't look like its going to happen anytime soon. Maybe someday it will win the prize for Outstanding Comedy Series; I just don't think it'll happen this year. But we all know its going to be here for a while. And we're all fine with it.

 

The Bear (FX on Hulu)

Perhaps the reason The Bear didn't win Outstanding Comedy Series at the Emmys had less to do with the discussion of it being a comedy and more to do with the fact that the third season dropped while the nominations were coming out and it underwhelmed even some of its most loyal fans. For the first time the shine was off the rose and while the second season was still good enough to win nine Emmys, its sweep was denied by a show whose luster had never dimmed during three seasons.

And while The Bear has gotten multiple nominations from the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards for the first time in two awards seasons it's not doing as well. It was completely skunked by the Critics Choice Awards, who only gave it a single nomination after it won four awards last year. It was nominated for Best Streaming Comedy by the Astras but not Outstanding Comedy. And Jeremy Allan White's odd of making it a three-peat have been dropping by the day in what is quickly becoming a crowded category.

For all that it's almost certain The Bear will be contending for multiple awards. It might have been inconsistent compared to the first two seasons but there's just too much good stuff for it not to contend. There is the now classic 'Napkins' episode which gave us the backstory of Maria. We saw Piper's pregnancy play out and we realized that she had every intention of breaking the cycle of her family. And the show does continue to deal with experimental formats that few series of any kind dare to try.

I also think the habit of the Emmys is likely to keep it contending – this is, after all, the way of the show. I will eventually get to review it for this site but again, The Bear is a comedy. And if it has faded, it is only because the competition is much better and its own standards are higher than Carmy's by now.

 

Hacks (HBO Max)

As I mentioned in my rave for it just yesterday the biggest shock in many years at last September's Emmys was Hacks winning Best Comedy. For the first few months of 2025 it continued to mop them up, winning not just the Golden Globe and Critic Choice Awards for Outstanding Comedy series but prevailing at the writers and directors guilds award. It is now the out-and-out front runner in this category, though there are signs its momentum may be shifting. ((I'll explain why in a few of the other major categories below.)

But it is not because the fourth season diminished in quality one iota from the previous three. Indeed the show continues to find ways to get out of its comfort zone almost from the start. Deb and Ava spent half the season feuding after Ava's betrayal of Deb at the end of Season 3. In the past this would matter only to them but now that Deb is hosting late night – and they are under immense pressure to be a hit right out the bat – everything is exponentially more important. And of course, much funnier.

We watch Deb and Ava try to struggle to lead. We watch Jimmy and Kayla beginning to slowly grow and flourish in their worlds. We watch as they finally manage to achieve everything they want – and then in the penultimate episode something that was almost inevitable happens and Deb does something we never expected her to do because we knew her to well. What happens next we don't know (though Deb doesn't die) but we really want to find out.

Hacks has always been one of the most consistent award winners during this decade; it has never gone through an Emmy season winning fewer than two awards. Jean Smart has won every year she's been nominated and seems certain to get her fourth straight Emmy (or will she? See Outstanding Actress below for why)  Recognition might finally come for Hannah Einbinder and it will dominate the writing and directing categories as it always does. There's nothing these women – either the ones in front of the screen or the ones in the writers and directors room – can't do at this point.

 

Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Selena Gomez's reaction when this series won Best Ensemble in a Comedy at the SAG Awards this past February was nearly as delightful as the victory itself: "But we never win anything!" This has to do more with the incredibly high caliber of nominees that is more cutthroat then living in the Arconia seems to be. In three impressive and masterful seasons the show has lost to Ted Lasso, The Bear and Hacks each of which are already as much classics the same way Murders is. Steve Martin has struggled to get nominated in a field that has included Jason Sudeikis, Bill Hader, and Jeremy Allan White and Selena Gomez only got nominated for Best Actress last year in an incredibly crowded field. Compared to this year, it's going to be even tougher.

But no one pretends that Only Murders isn't one of the best comedy series of the decade to this point. It features two Baby Boomer comedians working with a Millennial in an absolutely perfect set of matches. Each year they are forced to investigate murders of those near and dear to them as their success keeps getting bigger. Now their podcast is becoming a movie as if somehow having Paul Rudd and Meryl Streep last year was too modest a guest list. Now here comes Eugene Levy and Melissa McCarthy as well as they now investigate the murder of Charles's body double.

But the fate of Only Murders seems to be second best; the last few years it hasn't even been the most popular comedy on its streaming service. But it is the only winners for its current season so far (Hacks won all of its awards for Season 3). Will that be enough to help its cast finally win? Who knows?

 

Nobody Wants This (Netflix)

One of the early contenders at the end of year awards shows starting in December was Netflix's new rom-com Nobody Wants This which has been nominated for multiple Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards and SAG awards. The trend continued at the Astras and at this point the obvious joke is who's the nobody in the title? It's certainly not critics or viewers and not me.

The show features two of the greatest talents in the history of 21^st century television Kristen Bell and Adam Brody. Bell plays Joanne who with her sister Morgan (a very Emmy worthy Justine Lupe) do a podcast about relationships and sex that is on the verge of going national. Then one night the crass Joanne is invited to a party and immediately clicks with Noah (Brody). Then she learns that he is a 'hot rabbi' and their attraction is very big. The problem is Joanne is a shiksa and Noah's family really is still hoping he and his ex-girlfriend get back there. The fact that he chose to end the relationship is irrelevant to the conversation; that he is clearly in love with Joanne is a minor detail.

On a separate level as someone who is technically Jewish I love this show because it clearly gets the details of being part of a Jewish family. Noah is the golden child even before he became a rabbi. This is something that everybody, including his brother Sasha accepts. Timothy Simons is wonderful as playing someone who is basically a good guy who knows his lot in life is not to have relationships his wife doesn't approve of. He secretly likes both Joanne and Morgan but because his wife is best friends with Noah's fiancée he has to hide that fact.

Every part of this show is both funny and sweet, continuing the trends of so many funny and sweet comedies during this decade (much of which are in this category!) Brody and Bell are certain nominees for lead Actor and Actress and I could easily see many of the writers and stars getting nominations as well. To be blunt the Emmys will want this show and for good reason.

 

Shrinking (Apple TV)

It's not entirely surprising that Season 1 of this delightful comedy didn't get nominated for as many awards as it should have when it debuted in 2023. The field back then was incredibly strong and one of the shows it had to compete against was Ted Lasso which everyone thought was in its final season. Then came the strike which postponed filming. But in October of 2024 it debuted and it has been getting the recognition it deserves from award shows. It was nominated for the Golden Globe and SAG Award for Best Comedy Series. It was not nominated for the Critics Choice Award but it's sole nominee Michael Urie did win. And earlier this month it managed a somewhat shocking but not entirely surprising win in Best Streaming Comedy series beating previous winners Hacks and Only Murders in the Building.

The reason it shouldn't come as a surprise is, of course, it is one of the best comedy series on TV today. The combination of three of the greatest minds in comedy – Bill Lawrence, Brett Goldstein and Jason Segel – has led to one of the most sublime works of television that Lawrence has ever walked on, including Ted Lasso. This season we see the past coming back to haunt Jimmy as the drunk driver who was in the hit and run that killed his wife (Goldstein in a work that is the polar opposite of Roy Kent) came back into his life and then his sister and his best friend (Urie) starting talking to him without telling Jimmy.

We've also seen how Gaby's past with her sister and her mother is becoming part of her life as she tries to move on with her future. We've seen Liz (Miller) who's been a force of nature starting to spiral and ending up connecting with an old college friend, only to endanger her marriage. (Ted McGinley continues to inspire.) And we saw how Paul continued to deal with his past in his modern life while facing the inevitable fate of his Parkinson's.

The question is how many nominations Shrinking will get. Segel and Jessica Williams are certain to repeat. Michael Urie will compete against co-star Harrison Ford who is already becoming the frontrunner for the Emmy in this category. I would hope to see Miller there in some form and maybe even McGinley. But this is a sublime balance of humor, tragedy and pathos that even in this era of extraordinary comedies we rarely get.

 

Somebody Somewhere (HB0)

This one is my long shot. I know it's far more likely that What We Do In The Shadows will be here for its final season and I don't deny it deserves to be. But considering last time out the Emmy voters gave Reservation Dogs the recognition it deserved with five nominations (including Best Comedy) I'm holding out hope they might do the same for the final season of this equally understated, midwestern masterpiece.

There is a chance it will be here: the Critics Choice and the Astras nominated it for multiple awards and it has done well at other awards shows, such as the Peabodys. But Somebody has never been as flashy or as laugh at loud hysterical as so many of its competitors. It is quiet and subtle, even in its bathroom humor. Like its lead character, played by the superb Bridget Everett, it is about the quiet everyday battles of life, particularly if you are a heavy set woman or gay in Nebraska. It's about trying to be part of a relationship for the first time and the give and take. It's about dealing with your friends moving on and trying to start your own life. It's about dealing with an empty nest and finding your ex-husband gave you a parting gift. And as is always with Everett, it's about making your own kind of music and finding the bravery to sing.

Somebody received notice of its cancellation before it could film a proper final season or series finale. But I have to say watching the final episode it seemed to be a fitting, quiet end for a show that has dared to be different but never in the kind of ways that stand out. What would be a fitting finale would be for the Emmys to recognize for its final year. I know that it won't win, but it deserves to be there.

 

The Studio (Apple TV)

The Studio almost since it debuted become the breakout comedy of 2025. It's managed to win the top prize at the Gotham TV awards and prevailed for Best Comedy overall at the Astras (though it lost the Best Streaming prize to Shrinking). And who can argue with the logic? Like Hacks it is another in-house brand show, dealing with Hollywood. It has one of the great comic talents in this century Seth Rogen, writing and playing the lead as an executive who takes over a studio from a failed executive (Bryan Cranston). It has some of the greatest comic actors of this century or of all time working for him, such as Ike Barinholtz and Catherine O'Hara. And it manages to get so many of the greatest Hollywood figures playing themselves, from Scorsese to Ron Howard down. Hell, he wants to get Daniel-Day Lewis.

The thing is while The Studio does have a deep cynicism and pragmatism about the industry, it is just as much a love letter to it. It clearly loves the business even as it acknowledges the reality of it. It is full of the in-jokes which are cutting but also kind. And it is in love with the kind of films the new head of the studio loves himself – with the genuine love of the cinephile?

It's odds at prevailing have been increasing by the day at Gold Derby but no one is prepared to say for sure. But it's going to get a lot of nominations which makes sense. Hollywood loves Hollywood as much as Rogen does.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

St. Denis Medical (NBC)

The network comedy was pronounced as all but dead at the start of the decade. It has been granted fresh life over the last few years. And St. Denis medical demonstrates how much life the brand still has.

An exceptional cast of comedy veterans revive the documentary type comedy in a hospital format, showing so many superb and hysterical doctors who are also dedicated professionals. Some of them are more goofy then others in their behavior, some have bigger egos then others. But all of them are competent professionals. Even the intern who came in clueless and is still struggling has clearly managed to make immense character and emotional growth all season – and actually started a slow-burn romance.

The show has been nominated for Best Comedy by both the Critics Choice and the Astra awards this past year. It may not be able to make the crossover as easily as Abbott Elementary has to the Emmys but it is just as deserving and has the same tone.

 

Tomorrow I will deal with what may be the toughest category to predict this year: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy.