Tuesday, June 24, 2025

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2025 Emmy Nominations, Week 2, Day 2

 

Outstanding Lead Actor in A Comedy

 

Almost since the 21st century began we've had a lot of back to back winners in this category. Tony Shalhoub in Monk won 3 times in the 2000s. Alec Baldwin went back to back for 30 Rock in 2008 and 2009. Jim Parsons won four times won back to back in 2010 and 2011 and then again in 2013 and 2014. Jeffrey Tambor, 2015 and 2016. Bill Hader in 2018 and 2019.

So far in the 2020s, there has been little difference: Jason Sudeikis went back to back for Ted Lasso and Jeremy Allan White twice in 2024. But for the first time going into the Emmys there is no clear frontrunner the way there was in the awards leading up to the Emmys. Indeed there's no consensus at all leading up to the nominations which means the race is wide-open in  a way in hasn't been in a long time.

Supposedly there are only five slots available but that was true last year as well and we ended up with six. I will make the same assumptions this time around. Here we go.

 

Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This

Ever since he debuted as the 'hot rabbi' back in October Adam Brody has been at the center of pop culture in a way he hasn't been in nearly two decades. And from the moment he appears on screen as Noah, it's obvious why.

It might be an overstatement to say that this is the best work Brody has done in his long career but it is clearly his most endearing character. This is a man who wants to be a good Jew, a good son and a good rabbi and all of those are thrown into question the minute he meets Joanne. ("Are you sure there's no Jewish blood in you anywhere?" he asks on their first meeting.) This is the only real reaction any red-blooded person can see when they meet Kristen Bell and its clear Noah will follow her anywhere – even into a sex shop to get a dildo for her podcast. Naturally they fall head over heels in love, naturally their relationship is not taken seriously by anyone, and naturally Noah can only become more devoted to her anyway that by the end of the season, he almost seems willing to renounce his religion for her.

Brody took the Critics Choice Award for Best Actor in a Comedy and was an early front runner to prevail for the Emmy at the start of the year. A lot has changed since then and the competition has gotten fiercer so the question is, will the Emmys give to the hot rabbi what they wouldn't to the hot priest?

 

Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building

Was it shocking that Steve Martin was ignored by the Emmys for a nomination two years ago? I imagine he's just say to Charles Hayden-Savage "Welcome to my world." They made up for it last year of course but one could just as easily see it happen once more because that seems to be the world of both Martin and the characters he plays. Such is true of Charles, who now has to deal with the fact that his long time body double is the most recent victim.

That Charles is now back in Hollywood getting the stardom he never quite had even in his prime is another sense of art imitating life: I can imagine there may be another generation of viewers who only know Martin because of his work on Only Murders. But that is, as always, more than enough. As always Martin brings his conventional set of humor to Charles in every situation, part with slapstick, part with pathos, always feeling put-upon. Even now as Eugene Levy gets to play him onscreen he has to deal with another actor choosing to say he's not playing himself right.

Martin is one of the few actors in this category who hasn't won an award of some type so far this year which might lead to him being counted out. But don't ever do that to Steve Martin.

 

Seth Rogen, The Studio

Ever since it debuted this past March Seth Rogen has been rising in the Emmys odd like a rocket. This is hardly surprising for a man who has been gifted in not one but two failed Judd Apatow series (though he's not the only likely nominee in this category who is, see below) who has become one of the great comic stars of so many films over the years and who has been making his way back to television during the last few years. He showed his range in Pam & Tommy a few years back but The Studio is where Rogen lives in every way.

Rogen has written and directed many of the episodes in this Apple Series in which he plays the lead character. Nothing new for comedians in this era of Peak TV and its worked out for Bill Hader and Donald Glover. Like them his new studio head Matt Remick surrounds himself with the best and the brightest, both onscreen and in the writers room: frequent collaborator Evan Goldberg has cowritten and directed many of the episodes he has with him. And like so many characters he has played Matt is very much a Seth Rogen archetype: so nebbish he feels awkward giving correct to legends such as Ron Howard even though he's his boss, always awkward among so many celebrities who simply play themselves (and who Rogen himself has known for years)

Rogen prevailed at the Astras in Best Lead Actor in A Comedy earlier this month ahead of competition he will no doubt be facing down the road. He's been nominated before and it would be a way to honor the great show Freaks & Geeks except for…

 

Jason Segel, Shrinking

Yep, it's the other Judd Apatow alum from two comedies and several of his films who's also one of the writers and producers of an Apple TV comedy that's going to contend for Emmys this year. Segel has been nominated in this category for his work for Shrinking – which was to be clear his first Emmy nomination. Segel of course has a hit comedy in his back pocket already and spent much of the remainder of the 2010s doing comedies. He came back to TV to appear in the undervalued HBO series Winning Time and in his free time  helped executive produce and star in the first season of Shrinking as Jimmy.

Segel's work is as dark and layered as Jeremy Allan White's work in The Bear but unlike Carmy Jimmy has both support around him, a family and a system to help him through his trauma. He spent most of Season 1 rebuilding his life to have it come back to bite him at the end of the season and he's spent Season 2 often making things worse (with FWB Gaby at the start of the season) his relationship with his next door neighbors and most critically when he learned the secret that his daughter was keeping from him for much of the season. This led to him reliving the trauma again in the brilliant flashback episode 'Last Thanksgiving' and we've watched him rebuild since.

Segel has been one of the great performers in TV for more than a quarter of a century and he deserves to repeat in the nominations as much as anyone else in this category. I hope they find room for both Apatow veterans here.

 

Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building

It was a pleasant surprise when Martin Short managed to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy for his exceptional work in Only Murders this past February. He has won a few prizes for his work over the series run – an Astra here or there – but he has been shutout by the Emmys to this point. And not just for this show but throughout his career: while he has won for writing and producing he has never won once for acting.

It's an exaggeration to say Oliver is the best work he's done on television giving that he's been part of the medium since his years on SCTV. It's even an exaggeration that it's the role he shows the most range. But it's clearly the most honest work he's done and his character has been growing for a long time. As we see him continue the sweet relationship he started with that failed actress from last season (will we see Meryl Streep back in the Emmy hunt) as he goes Hollywood and has Zack Gallifankis play him onscreen and as he works to try and solve yet another murder, he's not only always hysterical funny in every scene but often brutally honest about his character's flaws.

Currently Short is the frontrunner by a hair in this category though that will almost certain change after the nominations. But I would love to see him up there.

 

Jeremy Allan White, The Bear

When Jeremy Allan White won his second consecutive Emmy completing his second straight sweep of every major lead actor award, it seemed like he was going to dominate this category forever. However by that time the third season of The Bear had dropped and the response was not nearly as favorable. Indeed many began to wonder if White himself was becoming part of the problem, particularly after the opening episode, which was both brilliant and baffling to many of the show's biggest fans.

When White managed to win his third consecutive last January it seemed like critics might have overcome it. But that was not only the only Golden Globe The Bear won that year, it was essentially skunked for awards for the rest of the end-of-year awards shows. The show will no doubt do well at the Emmy nominations this year and White will certainly be nominated again, but it will be due to the Emmys laziness more than the overall quality of his work.

There are patches when we see much of the brilliance of White in Carmy this season but at this point his combination of unrelenting drive in the pursuit of perfection mixed with trauma is becoming tiresome even to the characters around him. White will be nominated to be sure but I find it highly unlikely he will three-peat.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

David Allan Grier, St. Denis Medical

I considered making a case for Brian Jordan Alvarez and The English Teacher in this category but by this point I think the raves have been overshadowed by the allegations against Alvarez himself. There are better reasons to honor Grier for his marvelous work in this brilliant comedy.

For one thing Grier has never been recognized by the Emmys at all, though he has won other awards from other groups. For another, he has received nominations from the Critics Choice awards and the Astra this past few months. And for another, his work as the curmudgeonly but honestly good hearted Ron is kind of revelatory because it shows a humanity he hasn't gotten much of a chance to play on television or indeed his career. It helps that every line he says and even the delivery is a comic high point.

Hell, we’ve got two legendary sketch comedy veterans competing in this category. If we got room for SNL and SCTV, why not one of the original gangstas from In Living Color?

 

Tomorrow I move on to Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy where we all know who'll win – or do we?

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