Friday, June 27, 2025

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2025 Emmy Nominations, Week 2 Concluded

 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY ET AL

So far in this decade each year has produced a different winner. And the odds are heavy it will happen again this year with an overwhelming frontrunner. That said this is still arguably one of the strongest categories in the Emmys overall and yet again one of the most diverse. Once more into the breach.

 

Liza Colon-Zayas, The Bear

Larraine Newman was really upset when Colon-Zayas won last year and I won't pretend I was overjoyed either. But as we know this category has been prone to upset victories over the distant and recent past, usually when the cream rises to the top. (Exhibit A: Sheryl Lee Ralph.) No one denies that Colon-Zayas' work as Maria hasn't always been steady and entertaining over the years to watch. The trouble is it's always harder to watch her work on the show and make the case that The Bear is a comedy.

Colon-Zayas was one of the few performers in the cast to make it through the mixed reviews of Season 3 pretty much with her reputation intact. After all, she starred in the one episode that everyone considered was a gem in Season 3: 'Napkins', a flashback that told how she ended up becoming part of the original sandwich shop and will likely earn nominations for Jon Bernthal for Guest Actor and Ayo Edebiri for direction. It's likely for that reason that she was the only nominee for The Bear for the Critics Choice Awards, even though she lost to Einbinder this time.

It's possible her work in that episode will allow her to repeat in this category but as I said it's unlikely. But for all the flaws of Season 3, no one questions her coming back this year (except maybe Larraine Newman)

 

Hannah Einbinder, Hacks

I predicted that Einbinder would end up winning last year in this category, for the simple fact that she is well past due. Einbinder already has a wall full of prizes for her work on Hacks – three Astras awards and winning the Critics choice award this past winter.

In a narrow sense Ava is a co-lead rather than a supporting actress and this continues to be just as true in Season 4. Having finally been willing to do the worst thing possible to get what she wanted she spent the first half of the season openly feuding with Deb and proving that, in her own way, she's just as unprepared for the burden of the spotlight as she is. The two of them eventually manage to find a way to move past it by the halfway point. Then in the most critical episode of the series so far, she is exposed and the network forces her to be fired, forcing Deb make the most selfless decision she's made in her career. The season finale which showed how devoted Ava is to Deb despite everything was just as funny and moving.

What may stand in the way of Einbinder's victory may be her politics: she has made some political remarks over the past year that have gone too far even for Hollywood. But she's still the overwhelming favorite in this category in my book – though as with Smart the tides may be changing.

Janelle James, Abbott Elementary

Many people watched James's work in Season 4 and considered it 'the season of Ava'. I've no doubt if asked Ava would say: "Every season is about me" which is not wrong. James has always been the comic diamond of an extraordinary cast of performers: the go-to move when the series needs a laugh. Witness the Hollywood episode where she dresses as "Blade, bitch."

But as hard as it might be to have believed at the start of the series, Ava spent much of Season 4 showing the most emotional growth. She's now clearly good at her job in a way even the district is impressed by and is making more and more talks. She's comfortable with the politics of her job and in being willing to take bribes. We've seen bonds grown between some of the characters, particularly her and Barbara (see below). And even when she ended up being fired after making an awesome sacrifice for her teachers (something I didn't think she'd have been capable of last season) she landed on her feet. But she decided to come back and I think we were all stunned to see the entire community rally behind her.  You throw in that she seems to having a truly mature relationship with a boyfriend and may be reestablishing her bond with her father after years of being estranged and this entire season has to be her best work yet.

I want Janelle James to win someday. Indeed I advocated it for the first season of Abbott. It's hard to imagine Ava Colman being eclipsed but no one can argue just how incredible the three woman who ending up winning the last three years have been (all of them are certain to get nominated this year). But if the Emmys were willing to give Ava the love she is certain she deserves – and really she does – would anyone object?

 

Catherine O'Hara, The Studio

Catherine O'Hara is, as they say, having a moment. Just four years after leaving Schitt's Creek (with every single acting award imaginable as a parting gift) she has returned to television in grand style. She is certain to receive an Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama nomination for her magnificent work in The Last of Us. And while that was going on she came back to comedy as Patty Leigh, the messy executive on The Studio.

Now to be fair a lot of her co-stars might be in this category. She might be joined by newcomer Chase Sui Wonders who was nominated for a Gotham TV award earlier this year and an Astra. It might also go to Kathryn Hahn, who the Emmys might want to recognize after likely ignoring her for her work in Agatha All Along. But the fact is O'Hara did manage to win Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy from the Astras which I was certain would go to Einbinder. And that double dipping might help more than a few actors.

O'Hara can never get enough recognition from the Emmys in my book, same as with quite a few other nominees in this category. Right now she is the most likely one to show up here.

Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary

Ralph has diminished slightly in awards circles since she managed to prevail in the Emmys in Abbott's first year but that doesn't mean Ralph has on the show. Barbara continues to be as much a force of nature on Abbott, still occasionally stepping out of her comfort zone, sometimes to her own level.

Much of her best work in Season 4 was with Ava, as the unlikely friendship led to her standing on her own two feet at a choir presentation. We also saw her take over a music class as a request by Ava, saw her go viral by her students but then managed to find a way to work with it. We've seen Barb deal with the issues of technology, go to dinner at the Shemanski home, continue to make new traditions and deal with the reality of getting older, but still being able to change.

The relationship between Barb and the younger teachers on Abbott has always been special as it continues the always pleasing trend of the boomer generation getting along with much younger ones. We've seen how well this has played out on both Hacks and Only Murders and its always been both moving and hysterical. Ralph has no need for another trophy at this point but if she got one, no one would mind.

 

Meg Stalter, Hacks

At this point Meg Stalter's Kayla is the only performer who has not received an Emmy nomination of any kind for her work on Hacks. And I suspect Kayla herself might be the only person in the world who would be untroubled by that face.

Stalter has been able to steal scenes ever since she started playing Jimmy's incompetent assistant in Season 1. And in an act of comic genius on a show that doesn't lack it by far, the writers have been expanding Kayla's role with each season, deciding that is incredibly funny woman-child who wears the nepo baby proudly has depths and can actually be good at whatever life throws at her. Each season she keeps taken (usually against the will of Jimmy) more responsibility and somehow she keeps managing to not only succeed but excel at her job.  You'd think by now Jimmy would have stopped being surprised by this but honestly his comic amazement at this is as much part of the fun.

By this point Meg Stalter has become one of those standout characters who I could see, as with Bob Odenkirk's Saul Goodman or Carrie Preston's Elsbeth, carrying her own series some day: she's that good at it. The next step is to give her an Emmy nomination and I keep hoping they will. Maybe this year.

 

Jessica Williams, Shrinking

Williams's nomination for Outstanding Supporting Actress in 2023 was a balm to my soul because of her grounded and charming work as Gaby on Shrinking. I didn't expect her to win in 2023 there were just too many good candidates. Now yet again she will be in the arena for her wonderful work, which like every other character in Season 2 expanded.

Gaby spent the first few episodes breaking up the FWB relationship she'd started with Jimmy at the end of Season 1 and having a kind of touchy relationship over the first half of the season. We saw her deal with her life as a teacher and a therapist, saw her try to begin a relationship with Derek No. 2, and more importantly saw her tricky relationship with both her mother and her sister which involved a very messy family dynamic where both had to take separate roles taken care of an addict. In the midst of this she had to deal with the strange mix of the friend group she was a part of and the saga that was unfolding involve both her colleagues and friends at the therapy group.

Williams is going to be part of the Emmy conversation for years to come, though I'm not sure if she'll win for her work here – there are too many great candidates already and their will continue to be in the future. But she deserves all the recognition she gets.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Stephanie Koenig, The English Teacher

Honestly Stephanie Koenig should have been recognized by the Emmys already considering just how many great TV series of any genre she's had a major role on. Whether Sabrina on The Flight Attendant, Andrea Eastman on the undervalued The Offer or Fran, the busybody colleague in Lessons in Chemistry she's always had talent. And it looked like her work as Gwen on English Teacher was going to push her over the top. The series that she had co-created with Brian Jordan Alvarez got a lot of early buzz and she was nominated for awards from the Critics Choice Awards, the spirit awards and the WGA. Then accusation came to Alvarez last winter and everyone associated with the show kind of became radioactive.

That's unfair to the entire cast but it's particularly unfair to Koenig. Her work as the podcast listening friend on the faculty to Brian, the deluded girlfriend to a loser boyfriend who spent the entire digging a hole in his backyard and calling it a pool, who seemed to be the deepest thinker on the series but could slip back into bad habits just as anybody, was a true work of comic gems that I'm reminded of the work of Tina Fey on 30 Rock. But by the time of the Astras like the rest of the cast she was persona non grata.

I understand why she'll likely be excluded but I think it's horribly unfair. That's why I truly believe she deserves to be considered. She doesn't deserve to be branded for the accusations against another person.

 

GUEST ACTOR AND ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

It's a certainty that last year's winners in this category, Jon Bernthal and Jamie Lee Curtis for The Bear will be among the contenders. But their chances of repeating have diminished immensely.

There will no doubt be several nominees from The Studio likely including performers playing themselves. The certainties right now are Bryan Cranston and Zoe Kravitz.

From Hacks look for Julianne Nicholson to join perennial contenders Kaitlin Olson and Christopher McDonald back for their annual comic joy. And don't rule out the possibility of Olson being nominated for her work in the Abbott Elementary crossover.

Melissa McCarthy looks likely to return for her work in Only Murders and don't rule out Eugene Levy coming back to the ranks.

Finally one long shot nominee for each category I'd personally like to see. Bradley Cooper for his wonderful spot in the season premier of The Righteous Gemstones and Wendie Malick for her superb work on Shrinking.

 

Next Week I bring events to their conclusion with Outstanding Limited Series. Expect some different faces then what the Emmys will be arguing for.

 

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