Note: First of all, according to the Emmys
submissions there will likely be only five nominations in this category. Again
I intend to allow for the possibility of a tie and go to six.
Second, apparently the Astras did happen last Friday
and yet again I missed them. From this point on I intend to use them as
reference when deciding who has a chance of nominations and of winning. There
may be more of an effect more categories in comedy then drama but we'll see.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
This will be a completely new ball game in large
because Euphoria isn't eligible (yeah), Shogun is ineligible and The
Crown and Succession are over and done with. Furthermore with The
Morning Show and The Gilded Age also ineligible there will likely be
no repeats from last year. However as with Outstanding Lead Actor several
series which aired in year's past will likely have multiple contenders.
So let's begin.
Kathy Bates, Matlock
At this point it's almost a given who's going to
win in this category in a few months. Kathy Bates already managed an upset
victory at the Critics Choice Awards which shocked even her. She's already
prevailed at the African-American TV Awards and won at the Astras last week. So
one is inclined to say that her win is written in the stars.
And having seen her work over the first season of
Matlock it's impossible to deny her power. She gets extra credit for me
because much of her work on Matlock was itself a performance, a cover to
make sure she could infiltrate a law firm. When she was back at home and with
her family we saw the real version of her and it was very much like she was
changing a coat. Furthermore as we saw her try to investigate what was
happening, keep her cover from being blown from episode to episode, eventually have
it exposed in the final episodes and continue to try and keep it in balance, it
was clear yet again that Bates was one of the greatest actresses of all time.
She already has a couple of Emmys for her work on
American Horror Story and has been nominated for quite a few more during
this century. And as we've seen the Emmys has been very generous to veteran
performers at the Emmys the last few years whether it is Jennifer Coolidge or
Jean Smart. Bates is likely to join their company and I couldn't be happier.
But first things first, the nomination is coming.
Britt Lower, Severance
Somehow in the midst of all of the love Severance
got from the Emmys in 2022, Britt Lower managed to be the only performer
who did not get an Emmy nomination. That's kind of amazing considering
she managed to win Best Lead Actress in a Streaming Drama from the Astras in
2022 (she managed to defeat, among others Laura Linney for Ozark and
Reese Witherspoon for The Morning Show both of whom were nominated for
Emmys that year). But that year the Emmys was filled with a lot more formidable
contenders. It still is in 2025 but it's going to be harder to ignore Lower
this year.
Like everyone else on Severance Lower receives
extra credit because she's technically playing multiple roles. There's a
greater depth to it here than so many of her colleagues because we now know the
difference between Hetty and Henrietta in regard to Lumon and it's the most
unsettling change so far. Her character is also involved in the most
complicated love triangle (or whatever geometric figure applies on this show)
and it's role in the final episode may have been even more significant that
whatever we learned about Cold Harbor.
Lower's chances of prevailing at the Emmys this
year are unlikely given the formidable nature of the competition. But we'll see
her there, someday.
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Under any other circumstances Melanie Lynskey
would be the out and out frontrunner is that category for her incredible work
as the adult Shauna. She's been exceptional during the first two seasons but watching
her this year Lynskey took it to an entirely new level.
As her life continued to unravel at home, so did
the idea that in all of this was Shauna just an innocent bystander. While we
watched the flashbacks unfold in the woods and saw just how much of a villain
Shauna truly was back then, we saw her delusions begin to unfold as she
continued to manipulate everybody. The episode 'A Normal, Boring Life' where
she confronted a teammate who she was certain was responsible for everything
that happened to her, was one of the most exceptional episodes of TV all year
and it ended with the final proof as to how utterly crazy Shauna was. And it
was topped by her work in the finale in which we finally realized just how crazy
Shauna truly was and that she chose to look at the period where she and her
teammates murdered and ate their own classmates as the highpoint of her entire
life. It is the kind of revelatory work we saw of Bryan Cranston during Breaking
Bad.
I won't deny I would love to see Lynskey end up
winning this season, though I think the odds are unlikely. But she's absolutely
going to be contending this year and I can't wait to see it.
Carrie Preston, Elsbeth
In the odds for the Emmys Carrie Preston has been
rising like a rocket in recent weeks, she currently ranks as the seventh most
likely contender in this category. This should come as a shock to nobody who's
watched her work for the last two seasons on her title drama, nor those who
have watched her play the title character for more than fifteen years.
But this year we got to see Elsbeth dealing with
far more real life problems. She started her flirtations with various men (all
firemen). We saw her son visit her and tell her about the relationship he's
been having as well as the career he's now considering. We saw her past come
back to haunt her when she was dealing with an old case that the rules of
attorney-client privilege were coming back to bite her in a big way. And we saw
her go up against her most formidable adversary to date – and it's not a shock
that it was played by Michael Emerson. In the final episodes of the season the
horrors of the world came back to haunt her as she ended up prison alongside so
many of the killers she'd locked up over the last two seasons.
And I need to be clear: most of this was
incredibly fun. Preston has been known for her mastery of Elsbeth for more than a decade on two
different series involving the Kings but here she's clearly demonstrated why she's
exactly the heroine we need right now. I realize you might now have thought we
needed an eccentric red-headed attorney who seems to have a short attention
span and a lot of bags locking up the guest star of the week but trust me we
absolutely do. And considering that Natasha Lyonne is almost certainly going to
get another Emmy nomination for doing the exact same thing on Poker Face (I'll
get to that, trust me) then I thin we need one in this category as well.
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Bella Ramsey has been subject to a lot of hate on
the internet because of the toxic masculinity of gamers who apparently can't
understand why what appeals to them might not be the kind of thing that appeals
to TV viewers. This is, of course, just cover for their blatant homophobia both against Ramsey the performer (they
recently came out as non-binary) and the love story that has been unfolded
between her and Dina all season.
From such relatively non-important standards as
one's power as a performer, Ramsey has been as much a force to be reckoned with
as the character they play. We see her in the first episodes still feuding with
Joel, watching Ellie witness Joel being killed in front of her, determined that
she is going to Seattle to seek revenge despite what the town tells her, going
on that trek revealing her secret to Dina (and Dina doing the same) acting a
course of vengeance against one of the Wolves who killed Joel and in flashbacks
realizing she knew the horrible truth. All of this climaxed with an incredible
season finale in which we finally learned just how truly lost Ellie was and how
much bloodshed it left.
I was in awe of everything Ramsey did this whole
season. And when earlier this year Ramsey made it perfectly clear that they had
no problem competing in a category for actresses because 'they respect women'
and that this kind of classification 'didn't define them', well, how could I not
love them more? In a perfect world Ramsey would emerge triumphant this year but
as we all know, this is not one. But considering that they've made it clear
there is a place for them in Hollywood, I'm more than fine with it.
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
At the start of 2024 Keri Russell made history by
becoming the first actress to be nominated for Best Lead Actress at the Golden
Globes for three different drama series. I don't know what's more astonishing
for me: that fact or that somehow Russell has yet to win a single Emmy for that
work. That she was ignored for Felicity is understandable, given the
network. That she was nominated three times but never won for her incredible
work on The Americans is unfortunate but considering the very high
caliber of who she was competing against, a sad casualty. There may still be
hope for the Emmys to remedy that fact in the years to come; The Diplomat has
already been renewed for a third season.
The Diplomat itself was nominated for Best Drama by every major critics group to
this point and it might very well end up contending for Best Drama. That the
Astras chose to ignore it in this category may be a sign it is ignored and an
outlier. But Russell was nominated for Best Actress for its first season back
in the summer of 2023 and her work as Kate Wyler is another version of
Russell's versatility. Even caught in the middle of a global internation conspiracy
which her government and now the Vice President has gotten involved in, her
Russell does everything she can to keep calm and carry on while the world is
blowing up. That is becoming increasingly hard to maintain when she is aware of
just how involved her husband (Rufus Sewell would be nominated in a fairer
world) is in this conspiracy and just how messy it could get. Given the climax
of Season 2, it's pretty clear it will get very messy.
Russell has been among the nominees in every
major awards group that has met at the end of 2024 and will likely be among
those present this year. The Emmys really needs to give her a statue soon.
FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION
Tawny Cypress, Yellowjackets
For whatever reason Cypress has never gotten her
due for her work as the adult Tai on this show. That's not remotely fair
because in many ways Tai has the most unsettling and frightening character.
There have been indications that Tai has some
kind of dark passenger that has been commanding who she is – though like everything
else on this show, it may all be in her head. What is clear is that during the
first two seasons she's been increasingly letting it lead her and this season
she's been trying to fight death and Van – her soulmate now dying of cancer –
and refusing to accept either one's beliefs. As Van continued to decline
throughout the season and everything else disintegrated Tai ended up going with
Van to follow Shauna. That decision finally led to Van being murdered and it's
now clear whatever was holding Tai to veneer of civilization has broken for
good. Her final scene in Season 3 shows someone who claims she is bringing
justice for her friend but in reality is just giving into the same darkness
that they all are.
Cypress has always been as great a performer as
her co-stars Melanie Lynskey and Christina Ricci but has yet to receive
appropriate recognition for it. I think she will someday and I'd like it to be
now.
Tomorrow I move on to Outstanding Supporting
Actor in a Drama and go back to following Emmy guidelines.
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