Wednesday, June 18, 2025

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2025 Emmy Nominations, Week 1, Day 3

 

Note: First of all, according to the Emmys submissions there will likely be only five nominations in this category. Again I intend to allow for the possibility of a tie and go to six.

Second, apparently the Astras did happen last Friday and yet again I missed them. From this point on I intend to use them as reference when deciding who has a chance of nominations and of winning. There may be more of an effect more categories in comedy then drama but we'll see.

 

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

This will be a completely new ball game in large because Euphoria isn't eligible (yeah), Shogun is ineligible and The Crown and Succession are over and done with. Furthermore with The Morning Show and The Gilded Age also ineligible there will likely be no repeats from last year. However as with Outstanding Lead Actor several series which aired in year's past will likely have multiple contenders.

So let's begin.

 

Kathy Bates, Matlock

At this point it's almost a given who's going to win in this category in a few months. Kathy Bates already managed an upset victory at the Critics Choice Awards which shocked even her. She's already prevailed at the African-American TV Awards and won at the Astras last week. So one is inclined to say that her win is written in the stars.

And having seen her work over the first season of Matlock it's impossible to deny her power. She gets extra credit for me because much of her work on Matlock was itself a performance, a cover to make sure she could infiltrate a law firm. When she was back at home and with her family we saw the real version of her and it was very much like she was changing a coat. Furthermore as we saw her try to investigate what was happening, keep her cover from being blown from episode to episode, eventually have it exposed in the final episodes and continue to try and keep it in balance, it was clear yet again that Bates was one of the greatest actresses of all time.

She already has a couple of Emmys for her work on American Horror Story and has been nominated for quite a few more during this century. And as we've seen the Emmys has been very generous to veteran performers at the Emmys the last few years whether it is Jennifer Coolidge or Jean Smart. Bates is likely to join their company and I couldn't be happier. But first things first, the nomination is coming.

 

Britt Lower, Severance

Somehow in the midst of all of the love Severance got from the Emmys in 2022, Britt Lower managed to be the only performer who did not get an Emmy nomination. That's kind of amazing considering she managed to win Best Lead Actress in a Streaming Drama from the Astras in 2022 (she managed to defeat, among others Laura Linney for Ozark and Reese Witherspoon for The Morning Show both of whom were nominated for Emmys that year). But that year the Emmys was filled with a lot more formidable contenders. It still is in 2025 but it's going to be harder to ignore Lower this year.

Like everyone else on Severance Lower receives extra credit because she's technically playing multiple roles. There's a greater depth to it here than so many of her colleagues because we now know the difference between Hetty and Henrietta in regard to Lumon and it's the most unsettling change so far. Her character is also involved in the most complicated love triangle (or whatever geometric figure applies on this show) and it's role in the final episode may have been even more significant that whatever we learned about Cold Harbor.

Lower's chances of prevailing at the Emmys this year are unlikely given the formidable nature of the competition. But we'll see her there, someday.

 

Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets

Under any other circumstances Melanie Lynskey would be the out and out frontrunner is that category for her incredible work as the adult Shauna. She's been exceptional during the first two seasons but watching her this year Lynskey took it to an entirely new level.

As her life continued to unravel at home, so did the idea that in all of this was Shauna just an innocent bystander. While we watched the flashbacks unfold in the woods and saw just how much of a villain Shauna truly was back then, we saw her delusions begin to unfold as she continued to manipulate everybody. The episode 'A Normal, Boring Life' where she confronted a teammate who she was certain was responsible for everything that happened to her, was one of the most exceptional episodes of TV all year and it ended with the final proof as to how utterly crazy Shauna was. And it was topped by her work in the finale in which we finally realized just how crazy Shauna truly was and that she chose to look at the period where she and her teammates murdered and ate their own classmates as the highpoint of her entire life. It is the kind of revelatory work we saw of Bryan Cranston during Breaking Bad.

I won't deny I would love to see Lynskey end up winning this season, though I think the odds are unlikely. But she's absolutely going to be contending this year and I can't wait to see it.

 

Carrie Preston, Elsbeth

In the odds for the Emmys Carrie Preston has been rising like a rocket in recent weeks, she currently ranks as the seventh most likely contender in this category. This should come as a shock to nobody who's watched her work for the last two seasons on her title drama, nor those who have watched her play the title character for more than fifteen years.

But this year we got to see Elsbeth dealing with far more real life problems. She started her flirtations with various men (all firemen). We saw her son visit her and tell her about the relationship he's been having as well as the career he's now considering. We saw her past come back to haunt her when she was dealing with an old case that the rules of attorney-client privilege were coming back to bite her in a big way. And we saw her go up against her most formidable adversary to date – and it's not a shock that it was played by Michael Emerson. In the final episodes of the season the horrors of the world came back to haunt her as she ended up prison alongside so many of the killers she'd locked up over the last two seasons.

And I need to be clear: most of this was incredibly fun. Preston has been known for her  mastery of Elsbeth for more than a decade on two different series involving the Kings but  here she's clearly demonstrated why she's exactly the heroine we need right now. I realize you might now have thought we needed an eccentric red-headed attorney who seems to have a short attention span and a lot of bags locking up the guest star of the week but trust me we absolutely do. And considering that Natasha Lyonne is almost certainly going to get another Emmy nomination for doing the exact same thing on Poker Face (I'll get to that, trust me) then I thin we need one in this category as well.

 

Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us

Bella Ramsey has been subject to a lot of hate on the internet because of the toxic masculinity of gamers who apparently can't understand why what appeals to them might not be the kind of thing that appeals to TV viewers. This is, of course, just cover for their blatant homophobia  both against Ramsey the performer (they recently came out as non-binary) and the love story that has been unfolded between her and Dina all season.

From such relatively non-important standards as one's power as a performer, Ramsey has been as much a force to be reckoned with as the character they play. We see her in the first episodes still feuding with Joel, watching Ellie witness Joel being killed in front of her, determined that she is going to Seattle to seek revenge despite what the town tells her, going on that trek revealing her secret to Dina (and Dina doing the same) acting a course of vengeance against one of the Wolves who killed Joel and in flashbacks realizing she knew the horrible truth. All of this climaxed with an incredible season finale in which we finally learned just how truly lost Ellie was and how much bloodshed it left.

I was in awe of everything Ramsey did this whole season. And when earlier this year Ramsey made it perfectly clear that they had no problem competing in a category for actresses because 'they respect women' and that this kind of classification 'didn't define them', well, how could I not love them more? In a perfect world Ramsey would emerge triumphant this year but as we all know, this is not one. But considering that they've made it clear there is a place for them in Hollywood, I'm more than fine with it.

 

Keri Russell, The Diplomat

At the start of 2024 Keri Russell made history by becoming the first actress to be nominated for Best Lead Actress at the Golden Globes for three different drama series. I don't know what's more astonishing for me: that fact or that somehow Russell has yet to win a single Emmy for that work. That she was ignored for Felicity is understandable, given the network. That she was nominated three times but never won for her incredible work on The Americans is unfortunate but considering the very high caliber of who she was competing against, a sad casualty. There may still be hope for the Emmys to remedy that fact in the years to come; The Diplomat has already been renewed for a third season.

The Diplomat itself was nominated for Best Drama by every major critics group to this point and it might very well end up contending for Best Drama. That the Astras chose to ignore it in this category may be a sign it is ignored and an outlier. But Russell was nominated for Best Actress for its first season back in the summer of 2023 and her work as Kate Wyler is another version of Russell's versatility. Even caught in the middle of a global internation conspiracy which her government and now the Vice President has gotten involved in, her Russell does everything she can to keep calm and carry on while the world is blowing up. That is becoming increasingly hard to maintain when she is aware of just how involved her husband (Rufus Sewell would be nominated in a fairer world) is in this conspiracy and just how messy it could get. Given the climax of Season 2, it's pretty clear it will get very messy.

Russell has been among the nominees in every major awards group that has met at the end of 2024 and will likely be among those present this year. The Emmys really needs to give her a statue soon.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Tawny Cypress, Yellowjackets

For whatever reason Cypress has never gotten her due for her work as the adult Tai on this show. That's not remotely fair because in many ways Tai has the most unsettling and frightening character.

There have been indications that Tai has some kind of dark passenger that has been commanding who she is – though like everything else on this show, it may all be in her head. What is clear is that during the first two seasons she's been increasingly letting it lead her and this season she's been trying to fight death and Van – her soulmate now dying of cancer – and refusing to accept either one's beliefs. As Van continued to decline throughout the season and everything else disintegrated Tai ended up going with Van to follow Shauna. That decision finally led to Van being murdered and it's now clear whatever was holding Tai to veneer of civilization has broken for good. Her final scene in Season 3 shows someone who claims she is bringing justice for her friend but in reality is just giving into the same darkness that they all are.

Cypress has always been as great a performer as her co-stars Melanie Lynskey and Christina Ricci but has yet to receive appropriate recognition for it. I think she will someday and I'd like it to be now.

 

Tomorrow I move on to Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama and go back to following Emmy guidelines.

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