My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2025 Emmy Nominations, Week 1, Day 4

 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA

I'm returning to submission guidelines for the Emmys in the next two categories. They're saying that there will be seven nominees total and that's what I'm willing to do. However I am sticking to my old rule of no more than two nominees from each eligible series. The White Lotus does have many deserving candidates and I won't object if there are more than two nominees. I'm just not going to advocate for it here.

Here we go.

 

Walton Goggins, The White Lotus

It boggles the mind that one of the greatest actors in the era of Peak TV who has starred in more great dramas and comedies than almost any other actor in television has never won an Emmy and has only received a single nomination for his work in Justified. The man who has played so many brilliant characters from The Shield on and has been one of the great performers of all the comedies Danny McBride has done for HBO stretching back to Eastbound & Down has never won an Emmy. But there's an excellent chance that will finally change this year.

Goggins is exceptional as Rick Hatchett, the first guest who has ever come to a White Lotus hotel in three seasons who genuinely looks like he doesn't want to be there. Rick has no energy to go through meditation, can't be bothered to enjoy the parties his girlfriend drags him too, can't even get stoned and enjoy it. He is a man on a mission and when we learn what it is in the fourth episode we see the darkest storyline the show has dared yet tell. It is a triumph for Goggins on multiple ways, particularly because since he played Boyd Crowder his characters have always had a sense of energy and forward momentum. There's not of that in his work as Rick, as someone who seems lacking any forward momentum, who actually seems like he wants the fate that is coming to him (no spoilers)

Goggins is the front runner in this category, having triumphed at the Astras last week. And if you know the way the Emmys works, dying at the show often leads to Emmys. It worked for Murray Bartlett and Jennifer Coolidge. Will lightning finally strike for one of the greatest actors of all time?

 

Jason Isaacs, The White Lotus

It's almost as astonishing that Jason Isaacs hasn't been nominated for anything in his long career, not an Emmy, not an Oscar. The man who has played such brilliant villainous character as Lucius Malfoy and stunned those of us who saw Brotherhood with his work as Michael Caffee somehow has yet to even be nominated for a major award, much less one. That is almost certain to change for his incredible work as Tim Ratliff, the patriarch of the Ratliffe family whose life is becoming completely unraveled back home and who is doing everything in his power to keep his family from learning the truth.

Isaacs has rarely gotten to play a comic character in his years in television but his work in this season walks on the line of tragicomedy as the season progresses. He keeps trying to hide the phones of his family so they don't learn their secrets, starts to take all of his wife's pharmaceuticals, keeps trying to keep up a brave face that is so clearly a front that if his wife and children were a little less self-absorbed they'd have picked up on it a second. I almost wonder if the fact that his characters southern accent keeps changing back to Isaacs' natural British one is part of the joke; his identity is falling apart so he can't even bother to keep up who he used to be.

Of course the story turns much darker as the season progresses and by the end of it, the Ratliff's only avoid a horrible fate due to pure chance. The fact that they are going back home having lost everything makes them the first characters that will actually suffer true pain in three seasons and that is a sign of the show's evolution. It's a master class more than worthy of recognition

 

Jack Lowden, Slow Horses

Lowden is the only performer from last year who is eligible for renomination this year – indeed he's the first in three years to have a chance to repeat. And its more than worthy of recognition. River Cartwright would be the action hero in most television series, the young figure of dynamism to contrast with all the failures. The problem is at the end of the day, he's just as incompetent as everyone else: he flies off the handle quickly, trusts the wrong people, never listens to authority. However he's also the moral compass of the show: the only one who hasn't been beaten down enough to give up trying to fight for the right thing, who won't give in to the cynicism of either of his superiors.

Now this year he finds his past has come back to haunt him in more ways then one. His grandfather, who is now clearly suffering from the early stages of dementia, is now a target for an assassin. He will learn the truth of who is family is from the worst possible person. And in the midst of this he has to save London from a terrorist plot, often having to do so riding a bicycle with training wheels.

The Emmys made the right call when they nominated Lowden last year among the veterans from Shogun and The Morning Show. One hopes that institutional memory as well as a superb performance will get Lowden back in the running.

 

James Marsden, Paradise

Over the last decade James Marsden has been playing a lot of dynamic characters in comedies and dramas who have a boyish appearance but are more than meet the eye. Whether one of the first hosts to gain sentience – and die – in Westworld, twins with very different personalities on Dead to Me, or even a bizarre version of him for Jury Duty. Now as Cal Bradford, one of the youngest presidents ever elected forced to take on an even more horrible role than he could ever prepare for, Marsden does some incredible work. More telling because he only get to learn who he is after he has been mysteriously killed.

We see Cal heavily drinking, forced to play a role of someone who is broken, hated by his son, barely tolerated by his father even when he is suffering from dementia. We see him learning the horrible truth about the extinction level event and that he has been manipulated by a greater force. And tellingly we see him on the day the world ended, refusing to go along with the plan his advisers told them to follow either publicly – and tellingly give a decision that might save mankind.

It is one of the best performances in Marsden's career and he has already received recognition from it with nominations from the Astras and the Gotham TV awards. He has never gotten his due for his work in so many shows, so I think it's time we recognize this talent.

 

Young Mazino, The Last of Us

The world met Young Mazino in the masterpiece Beef where he played Paul, the younger brother who seemed to have no ambition but whom we later learned had been manipulated throughout his life by other forces. He deservedly earned an Emmy nomination. Now in what is only his second major role on television, he takes on the part of Jesse, the young man who finds himself in an uneasy relationship with Ellie during the start of Season 2 of The Last of Us.

Jesse is part of the community with a complicated history with Dina that becomes part of a love triangle before Ellie goes on her mission of vengeance in Seattle. He eventually comes to rescue her and Dina when things go wrong and he's not happy about it. And in the season finale he finally blows up and explains just how off the rails Ellie has gone from her mission and is tellingly ignored by her. Those of you who play the game knew his fate was cast in stone. I didn't, so it was one of the biggest shocks of the year so far.

Mazino is clearly going to be a superstar in whatever field he chooses and he deserves to be recognized for his incredible work in this master class of a series.,

 

John Turturro, Severance

How is one of the greatest actors in history has somehow never won any major award? I'm not talking about the incredible work he's been doing for decades in the work of Spike Lee and the Coen Brothers. Now I'll grant you he managed to win an Emmy for Best Guest Actor in a Comedy for Monk in 2004 but that's not nearly enough. Not for the man who's played Howard Cosell and Billy Martin on TV. Not for the man who suffering psoriasis and an impossible case as John Stone on The Night of. Not for the man who played the most corrupt rabbi possible on The Plot Against America.

Now to be fair it does seem like the Emmys is starting to catch up. He was nominated last year for his superb work as Eric Shane, who's abduction Mr. & Mrs. Smith screw up royally. And he has already been nominated for his masterful work as Irv, the cheerful man who is ignored by everyone at Lumen, but who has the greatest affair of the heart of all the characters. It's been three years since he took the prize for Best Supporting Actor from the Astras for that prize.

I suspect someday Turturro will end up grabbing the Emmy for his work. Perhaps not this year but very soon. And I couldn't be more thrilled.

 

Christopher Walken,  Severance

For reasons that don't track for me Christopher Walken is ranked lower in the nominees in this category then some of his own co-stars, most notably Tramell Tillman. The fact that Walken deserved was nominated three years ago is the biggest argument for him to be nominated again.

Of course there's also the fact that even for an actor whose onscreen behavior and demeanor have long since overcome the fact that he is one of the greatest actors of all time, his work as Burt Goodman stands as some of the subtlest and more nuanced work in a career that stretches back more than half a century. I defy anyone to try and find the most Walken like archetypes in the sad and tragic love story between him and Irv that we have seen unfold over two seasons and may very well have come to a sad end this year – though you never know.

This is after all a category that honors industry veterans as much as it does newcomers and we have seen former Oscar winners compete in this category for many years. (F. Murray Abraham was nominated for The White Lotus two years ago.) It won't shock me if Walken isn't there, but he deserves to be.

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Jason Ritter, Matlock

Ever since I first met him as the paralyzed son on Joan Of Arcadia, Jason Ritter has been one of the nice guys on television. It's a role he's played into well for twenty years and its always fun to watch him. Which is why some of his best work has been on Matlock as we see how much of that people-pleasing attitude is a front to try and earn the devotion of the one person he can't get it from: his father.

We've seen him try to be a good father with his ex-wife even though the two are competing for partner all season. We saw Matty use this to turn the two of them against each other and made them so angry they ended up in a cell together. We saw his character finally realize he will never win his father's support. And in the biggest twist of the season finale, we saw just how far he was willing to go one time – and how horrible the consequences were for the world.

Ritter is lower on the list of likely nominees for Matlock (I'll deal with at least one more before this series is done) but honestly he should be among those considered. He's one of the great actors and he is such a nice guy.

 

Tomorrow I wrap this part of the series up with Outstanding Supporting Actress as well as some theories about the major nominees for the other categories in Drama, particularly best Guest Actor and Actress.