Those of you who've read my
column are aware that since it debuted at the start of the decade I have been a
huge booster of the Astra TV awards. Last May they announced their nominations
for television and while there have been some shakeups I was overall satisfied
as always with the nominations.
The Astra TV Awards were
'scheduled' for June 10th. I use quotes because last year they were
scheduled to air in the middle of August and were inexplicably postponed at the
last minute and didn't occur until the middle of December. Considering the
'unrest' (allow the euphemism) in Los Angeles that has been unfolding this past
weekend, I am unsure if they will take place on schedule. It's not as though
there isn't already precedent: this past January both the Critics Choice Awards
and the SAG Awards pushed back their ceremonies into February because of the
fires that devastated much of LA and California this past winter. It would be
understandable if a lesser awards show chose to do the same.
But it may not happen. While
checking online I learned the BET Awards which take place in downtown Los
Angeles have no plans to postpone their ceremony which is scheduled for
tonight. Considering that the Tonys went on as per usual this Sunday, perhaps things
will continue as normal. I cannot say for sure.
For now, I'm going to see the
glass as half-full and assume that the Astra TV awards will happen tomorrow
night and that I will be able to see them. Worst case scenario I'll have the
predictions up on record anyway.
So for now I'm going to try to
stop worrying and predict the Astras. Considering that the lion's share of the
Awards at the end of last year basically rewarded programs that were eligible
during the 2023-2024 season – Shogun, Hacks and Baby Reindeer were
basically as dominant as they had been at last year's Emmys – the Astras have
more prominence in possibly indicating many of the major contenders for the
Emmy nominations which will come in just over a month. The nominations for the
majority of the series in drama and comedy have given us insight and it is
conceivable limited series will show similar interest.
Because for the first time in
their existence I don't have a road map the way I did in previous years I'm
going to proceed on the premise of most awards shows: what I want to win and I
want I think will win. If you've read my reviews of the Astras nominations and
awards over the last four years, you know that in all that time the Astras have
yet to give a winner that I am absolutely opposed to. That day may come soon,
it may come this year, but I find it hard to believe.
I'll start with comedy
BEST COMEDY SERIES
So far this year I haven't seen Hacks,
which is the only reason I haven't automatically given in the I hope it
will win. I wouldn't object to Abbott Elementary or Shrinking winning
but come on I have no problem with Hacks taking the grand prize.
Should Win/Will Win: Hacks
BEST CAST ENSEMBLE IN A BROADCAST
COMEDY
Ghosts has done very well at the Astras
over the last three seasons, defeating frontrunner Abbott Elementary at
least once in the three seasons both were on the air. My personal preference
would be for Abbott or newcomer St. Denis Medical, which is very
much in the mold of Abbott. I'm going to give the slightest edge to Abbott
Elementary this time around but I'm not going to lie I think it could
probably go to Ghosts.
Should Win: Abbott Elementary/ St.
Denis Medical.
Will Win: Abbott Elementary/Ghosts.
BEST CAST ENSEMBLE IN A CABLE
COMEDY
Not going to lie I would really
love to see Somebody Somewhere take the prize for its final season on
the air. But there's no question as to what will win in this category: What
We Do In The Shadows has already twice won Best Cable Comedy over tougher
competition then this field and I see nothing standing in its way for its
valedictory season.
Should Win: Somebody
Somewhere.
Will Win: What We Do In the
Shadows.
BEST CAST ENSEMBLE IN A STREAMING
COMEDY
Despite being the strongest field
I think this will come down to two shows Hacks and Only Murders in
the Building. Hacks is the overwhelming favorite but Murders did
manage an upset win at the SAG Awards for Best Comedy series. I think Hacks has
been dominant enough that it will prevail hut don't rule out Murders coming
through.
Should Win: Hacks/Shrinking.
Will Win: Hacks.
BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Okay so far this year the end of
year awards have given us some leadership though it is divided. Jeremy Allan
White won his third consecutive Golden Globe for The Bear. Adam Brody took
the Critics Choice Award for Nobody Wants This. And Martin Short
prevailed for Only Murders in the Building at the SAG Awards. Short has
also won in this category before in 2022, when he defeated Jason Sudeikis in an
upset.
This is, like all of the
categories, filled with strong contenders. I think at this point The Bear's buzz
has begun to fade and White will not prevail. Seth Rogen does have some
momentum for The Studio that may shake things up. And Utkarsh Ambudkar
has won a couple of times in this category. That said I think it will come down
to either Short or Brody. My personal preference is for Brody, so I'll give him
the barest of edges.
Should Win: Brody/Segel.
Will Win: Brody/Short
BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
The easiest pick of the night
despite how strong the contenders are. Jean Smart has won in this category
every year she's been nominated for Hacks; in fact her triumph in this
category way back in 2021 was a harbinger for how she has essentially dominated
all major comedy awards since. To be fair Selena Gomez did beat her one year and
we can never rule out Brunson or Edebiri. But Smart won every award in sight since
September and I expect it to happen again this year. Couldn't be more thrilled.
Should Win/Will Win: Smart.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
We actually have some precedent
here: Michael Urie did win in this category for the Critics Choice Awards this
February. But he was not up against his co-stars Brett Goldstein (who won twice
for Ted Lasso) and that 'up and comer named Harrison Ford. Ebon
Moss-Bachrach has won a couple of these so he could be a force.
My out and out frontrunner is Harrison
Ford, who absolutely deserves to win a prize for something and his work in Shrinking
is a master class. I won't rule out the possibility that Urie or Tyler
James Williams could prevail, but I think Ford has a bit of an edge.
Should Win: Ford.
Will Winn: Ford/Moss-Bachrach.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A
COMEDY SERIES
This is, in many ways, just as
much a no-brainer as Outstanding Actress in a Comedy. It shouldn't be
considering the field. Lisa Colon-Zayas could prevail for The Bear, Catherine
O'Hara has had a hell of a year; Janelle James has already won in this category
and Jessica Williams deserves too.
But this is Hannah Einbinder's to
lose. It's not just that she already won the Critics Choice Award in this
category in February or even that she's won in this category every years she's
been nominated; it's that she's finally on her way to an Emmy after being
robbed last year. Much as I'd like to see James or even Meg Stalter win,
Einbinder walks away with this.
Should Win/Will Win: Einbinder.
OUTSTANDING WRITING AND DIRECTING
IN A COMEDY SERIES
For now I'm giving the edge in
writing to 'Slippery Slope' for Hacks for writing. I think it's likely The
Studio will win for direction for 'The Oner' the episode that looked like a
one shot.
BEST GUEST ACTOR AND ACTRESS IN A
COMEDY
I'm going to give the edge to
Jamie Lee Curtis for her work in The Bear. I'd like to see Kaitlin Olson
win for either of her roles but I'm pretty sure she'll cancel herself out. As
for Best Guest Actor, Jon Bernthal might prevail but don't rule out a win for
Bradley Cooper for his work in The Righteous Gemstones.
Now we move to drama.
OUTSTANDING DRAMA
For the first time in nearly twelve
years we are going into Emmy season with no clear front runner for Outstanding
Drama Series. Try to figure out this year…well let's work backward.
Will Trent, Bridgerton and Daredevil have no
realistic chance of even being nominated by the Emmys this year. Andor is
a dark horse but I think Matlock has a better chance. Slow Horses does
have some momentum but it's not as flashy. That leaves us with the four likeliest
contenders.
Severance and The White Lotus have
both won at the Astras before. The Last of Us has momentum and The
Pitt is popular. For the moment I'm giving the edge to Severance but
we may have to see how the rest of them play out.
Should Win: The Last of Us.
Will Win: Severance.
BEST CAST ENSEMBLE IN A NETWORK
DRAMA
This is a very strong field with
quite a few carryovers. I think it will come down to Will Trent which
has won in this category twice before and Matlock. Given how much of a
sensation Matlock has been, I'm giving it the barest of edges.
Should Win: Will Trent/Matlock.
Will Win: Matlock
BEST CAST ENSEMBLE IN A CABLE
DRAMA SERIES
This one comes down to The
Last of Us or The White Lotus. Boy that's a headscratcher. I'm
giving the barest of edges to Last of Us mainly because it was the big
winner in 2023.
Should Win: Last of Us/White
Lotus.
Wiil Win: The Last of Us.
BEST CAST ENSEMBLE IN A STREAMING
SERIES
Despite my overwhelming personal
preference for either Paradise or Yellowjackets I think it will
come down to either Severance or The Pitt. I'm giving Severance
the edge here.
Should Win: Yellowjackets.
Will Win: Severance.
BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA
All right, let's work backwards.
Charlie CXox, Jacob Anderson, Joshua Jackson and (sigh) Ramon Rodriguez have no
chance at Emmy nominations. The other six are all likely to be nominated and
all are formidable contenders.
Eddie Redmanyne got a lot of
early buzz for his work in Day of The Jackal but now much of that has dissipated.
Pedro Pascal deserves to win for his work in the Season 2 premiere but he is
stretching the definition of Lead Actor with his appearance. Gary Oldman looms
as a dark horse. Sterling K. Brown has already won a couple of awards to this
point. Noah Wyle's never won anything and neither has Adam Scott. Scott and
Pascal have both won Best Actor at the Astras before.
This is a tough call. My
preference would be for either Brown or Pascal to prevail. But I'm going to
give the edge to Adam Scott, mainly because he's been owed an Emmy longer than
the majority of the potential contenders and I really want him to win.
Should Win: Brown/Pascal.
Will Win: Scott.
BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
By contrast this one is easier,
even though it shouldn't be. Don't get me wrong I'd love to see Melanie Lynskey
or Britt Lower win as they have before, love to see Keri Russell or Carrie
Preston win something. But Kathy Bates has this one in the bag. She already
managed an upset win at the Critics' Choice for Matlock; she managed to
win at a couple of awards shows. She's got this one down cold and I couldn't be
happier for her.
Should Win/Will Win: Bates.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
All right this award is going to
go to either someone from Severance or The White Lotus. I really
wish they'd give it to James Marsden for Paradise but such is his
eternal fate.
Sight unseen (yet) my personal
favorites are John Turturro for Severance and Walton Goggins for The
White Lotus. I'm going to go with my heart instead of my head. Goggins is
going to take this one.
Should Win: Marsden.
Will Win: Goggins.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A
DRAMA
I don't think Severance gets
this one. And I can't bring myself to vote for Aimee Lou Wood. Jennifer Love
Hewitt has no chance.
Allison Janney was an early
favorite for her work in The Diplomat. Skye P. Marshall has been rising
as an Emmy favorite for Best Supporting Actress. Julianne Nicholson was incredible
on Paradise. And I loved Isabela Merced's work on The Last of Us.
But two of my all-time favorite
underrecognized actresses are facing off from The White Lotus. Carrie Coon
and Parker Posey. Since Coon has been undervalued by television for longer, I'm
giving the edge to Coon.
Should Win: Janney/Nicholson.
Will Win: Coon.
I'm going to give the edge for directing
for the Through the Valley episode of ’The Last of Us' Writing is tougher but
I'm going to give the edge there to the season finale of Severance. Much
as I'd like to see Yellowjackets win in the former and Will Trent the
latter.
GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA
I'd really like to see Joel
McHale win for Yellowjackets or John Noble for Severance. But
Jeffrey Wright takes this hands down for The Last of Us and I really
don't have a problem with that.
GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
I want either Hilary Swank to win
for Yellowjackets or Catherine O'Hara win for The Last of Us. Kaitlyn
Dever is going to win for The Last of Us. Again, no problem.
Now I'll wrap this up with Best
Limited Series. Here I probably will differ.
BEST LIMITED SERIES
I'm pretty sure Adolescence is
going to win in this category. That said, even after three episodes I
legitimately can't endorse it. Dying for Sex, Presumed Innocent and The
Penguin are all far better. I'm hoping The Penguin wins. I think Adolescence
will.
Should Win: The Penguin.
Will Win: Adolescence
BEST CAST ENSEMBLE IN A LIMITED
SERIES OR TV MOVIE
The Penguin might very well prevail over Adolescence
here because the latter had a great ensemble, the former didn't.
Should Win: The Penguin.
Will Win: Penguin/Adolescence.
BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR
TV MOVIE
Easiest one. Colin Farrell has
won every acting award in sight since January. He takes this one on his route
to the Emmy.
Should Win/Will Win: Farrell.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES
OR TV MOVIE
This one's tougher. I'm
legitimately not sure whether Michelle Williams will prevail over Cristin
Milioti. Milioti does have the Critics Choice Award for Best Actress in her
pocket and that was won over much tougher competition. On the other hand
Williams has been gaining momentum for her wonderful work in Dying For Sex.
I'm giving the barest of edges to
Milioti right now but I've been wrong in this category before.
Should Win: Milioti/Williams.
Will Win: Williams
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A
LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE
This is tougher for me. Much as
I'd like to see Clancy Brown win for his work in The Penguin I think it
comes down to either Javier Bardem for his exceptional work in Monsters or
Owen Cooper and Ashley Walters for Adolescence. I do think both the performers
in Adolescence were superb but they might very well cancel each other
out. My personal preference is for Walters, whose level and calm attitude through
madness was the unsung story of that series. But I'm going to give the edge to
Bardem who has been the early favorite.
Should Win: Walters.
Will Win: Bardem.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A
LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE
I really would love to see Ruth
Negga or Deirdre O'Connell prevail but I think it will come down to either Erin
Doherty for her memorable turn in Adolescence or Jenny Slate for her
remarkable work in Dying For Sex. It's a tough call but considering
Slate did manage to win at the Gotham Awards last week, I'm giving her the nod
and I'll be honest I really want her to win.
Should Win/Will Win: Slate.
BEST DIRECTING AND WRITING IN A LIMITED SERIES
OR TV MOVIE
Obviously Adolescence will
win directing, though I'm not thrilled by it, particularly as it's nominated
against 'The Hurt Man' episode of Monsters. It's possible it will win
for writing but don't rule out The Penguin for that one.
There are quite a few other
nominees in many categories but since I neither know enough or in some cases
care enough I'll let them wait until next week.
If the Astras happen tomorrow,
I'll be back on Wednesday with my reactions to the results. If they don't…well,
we'll see.
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