Thursday, June 26, 2025

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2025 Emmy Nominations, Week 2, Day 4

 Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy

 

They expect seven nominees in this category and I'm fine with that. There is another actor in this category who has won back to back Emmys. That happened less frequently then you might think ever since Jeremy Piven went three for three in the final seasons of Entourage. Quite a few actors did  win multiple Emmys in the 2010s but Eric Stonestreet and Tony Hale didn't do it back to back. It's happened the last four years but as we will see, the odds of a three-peat have understandably dropping.

It is likely we will see a good balance of new faces and old faces in this category. I'm fine with six of the most likely contenders: I'm going on a limb for a seventh. Here we go.

 

Ike Barinholtz, The Studio

Considering how rare it is to see both a winner of Celebrity Jeopardy and someone who did well in the Tournament of Champions competing for an Emmy, I would be inclined to be in favor of Barinholtz being here for anything. But honestly Barinholtz has been one of my favorites well before that.

He has been one of the great comic utility players ever since he started work in The Mindy Project, appearing in such great series as Eastbound & Down and Mad TV. He has written for both Mindy and Mad for much of his career, worked on History of the World and created Running Point for Netflix. I'm kind of amazed he had time to play the role of Sal, Matt's friend who has to help Matt finding missing film one day and gets in office wars the next.

Barinholtz, like the show itself, has been moving up for award consideration the last few months and I couldn't be more personally thrilled for him. I don't necessarily want him to win over some of the other nominees but to be clear, I like Ike.

 

Paul W. Downs, Hacks

Last year this category was the only one Downs' didn't get a prize for. He shared in Emmys both for writing and as executive producing Hacks and considering that he's married to the showrunner Lucia Aniello, he no doubt has property is that well. Giving him an Emmy for starring in this show might be gilding the lily slightly but no one who's watched him for four seasons can deny what a master comedian he is.

Jimmy's role was basically a gag starting the first season but with each new season the creators have seen the potential in Jimmy and keep building it up. It's not just that his nervous comedy combined with the tightrope he has to walk around Deb and Ava always makes for hysterical comedy but at this point he's now his own man in a way he just hasn't been before. Indeed, much of the genius of Season 4 is expanding Jimmy's role to make his character as an agent act almost independently of the major storyline. As he continues to grow and become a force in Hollywood, is constantly surprised by how competent Kayla has become, and is always baffled by the talent he has to deal with (Dance Mom!) the next logical outgrowth is a spinoff where Jimmy and Kayla run their own agency. They're halfway there already and believe me, I'd watch.

Downs's has understandably been moving up as a frontrunner in this category since his somewhat surprising nomination last year. I know he's going to win at least one Emmy this September regardless of what happens in this category but come on, at this point we want to see him give an acceptance speech for acting. He's just good at that.

 

Harrison Ford, Shrinking

In hindsight the reason Harrison Ford wasn't nominated for Season 1 of Shrinking is because of the third and final season of Ted Lasso taking up two spots that could have gone to him. No one pretended watching his first season as Paul he absolutely didn't deserve won for demonstrating his incredible work as a comic actor.

It's clear watching his work on Shrinking we've been taken Ford for granted for forty years because he is a 'supergiant' in the world of film, connected to two of the biggest box office franchises in the history of cinema, so many blockbuster films around that period and quite a few dramatic masterpieces. His work as Paul demonstrates that we've forgotten how natural a comic actor he can be given the opportunity. Leaning in to the curmudgeon nature of his age every single line out of his mouth is often the funniest punch line imaginable because he always makes it clear he's not trying to be funny. We've also seen that he's by far the best psychiatrist that everyone says he is but is also coming to realize the mistakes he's made in life – and as we see is facing his mortality with consequences that will no doubt reverberate in future seasons.

He's already been nominated for a Golden Globe and a SAG award and earlier this month finally won his first award at the Astras for Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy over everyone in this field. I won't add the fact that he's clearly the sentimental favorite as well because this only occasionally works in favor of elder statesmen at the Emmys in general. But hopefully as was the case for not only Jean Smart but Henry Winkler and Jamie Lee Curtis, he will finally be in the winner's circle this year.

 

Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear

No one can deny Moss-Bachrach's work as Cousin Richie on this series isn't both the comic highpoint of this show as well as demonstrating the greatest character growth. By the end of the second season he had evolved far more than Carmy was willing to do by that point and that was just as clear by the end of the third season. There were many flaws in the third season of The Bear but no one is saying Moss-Bachrach's work is one of them.

The problem is, like so many of the other actors on the show this year, he has been dragged down by the decidedly mixed reactions by critics and audiences to Season 3. This was made clear as early as the Golden Globes where he was the favorite to win but ended up losing to Shogun. He was ignored by both the Critics Choice Awards and the SAG Awards and while he was still the favorite going into the awards season by this point for obvious reasons both Harrison Ford and quite a few other actors are moving ahead of him

Throw in this fact that no one has managed to win three consecutive awards in this category since Jeremy Piven for Entourage and it's looking that for the first time he'll be watching from the audience this year. He'll be nominated, no question, but for the first time in three tries he won't be the frontrunner.

 

Timothy Simons, Nobody Wants This

Simons is my long shot in this category when I should be going for Brett Goldstein or any of the supporting actors from Only Murders in the Building. I'm given him recognition in this category not just because I loved his work unconditionally in this show but because I could not stand him in what was his most famous role Jonah in Veep.

I found his character unsympathetic, stupid and loathsome: the fact that he was clearly hated by everyone including his only family did nothing to make me think better of him. Of all the characters on that show I hated whenever he showed up onscreen. That's why his work as Sasha during this show was by far the most revelatory work of the entire cast.

Sasha, like Jonah, is not particularly favored in his own family but he actually seems more balanced and okay with it. He's clearly happily married and he's accepted he's the lesser sibling. In a superb story in the series we saw him surprise even himself when he resolved a crisis his adolescent daughter thought unsolvable showing he understood social media. His relationship with Noah is clearly healthy and supportive both ways and it was kind of sweet watching the platonic friendship building between him and Morgan all season – as well as hysterical watching him hide it from his family as well.

I think Simons will get nominated down the road, if not this year then by Season 2. But by selecting him here, this is an apology of sorts. I never understood what he was capable of in Veep. Now I get what a talent he is.

 

Michael Urie, Shrinking

I wasn't surprised Urie won at the Critics Choice Awards in this category last year so much as the fact that it was the only nomination Shrinking got and it wasn't for 'a young and up and comer named Harrison Ford' as Urie credited him in his acceptance speech. And it's not like Urie's work hasn't been as much as masterclass as Ford's over the last two seasons: it's just a different kind of comedy.

Urie's work at Brian is closer to some of the characters he's played throughout his career: a mix of anxiety and narcissism with an outward cheerful optimism. But Brian is far more of a grownup than that. He and Jimmy spent Season 1 reconnecting and rebuilding their friendship and now Jimmy is willing to rely on him more when he needs him both in the law and as a friend. Jimmy has been dealing with issues of his own: being a husband and trying to see himself as a father and he has been adapting. But the series allowed him to go into darker territory when he realized the connection the drunk driver had with Alice, went with her to reconnect – but didn't tell Jimmy about it until he ended up learning in the worst possible way. The devastation of this ended up hurting everyone until the end of the season.

There are going to be a couple of actors from this incredible cast in this category (I'm going to advocate for one at the end who might slip under the radar) and Urie has more than earned the right to be here. I'd prefer Ford win but if Urie does manage to pull it off, I won't be upset.

 

Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary

I shouldn't have to advocate for Williams who has been nominated in this category every year since Abbott Elementary debuted and has already been nominated for yet another Critics Choice and Astra Award this past year. So let me just explain the highlights of Gregory this year.

He fell in love and let his dorky side shine with his soulmate Janine. He ended up almost getting in a fight with an angry parent which he did nothing to start. He learned the truth about Ava's father before Janine and realized the consequences. He did what he needed to get a golf scholarship for some of his students. When Ava was fired from her job, he was appointed principal – which he originally hoped for when he came to Abbott – and did a far better job then even he though possible. He managed to decode Ava's system for filing; a comic highlight itself. He went through an endless war with Ava's secretary where gave the great punchline. And in the season finale when he told his father he and Janine were dating, he was surprised by how his father reacted – and got the kind of blessing he'd never expected. And he did all of this with the kinds of looks at the camera that Oliver Hardy would tip his bowler too with what he could express by saying nothing.\

Now at some points the Emmys are going to have to put on their big boy pants and give him the prize he should have gotten two years ago after he won the Golden Globe and the Astra. I'm enough of a realist to know it probably won't happen but I know he's going to be nominated.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Ted McGinley, Shrinking

I think its far more likely Brett Goldstein will be nominated in this category and he more than deserves to be. But from the perspective of a character arc and everything else I want McGinley to be nominated.

Derek was more of a comic foil in Season 1, there to take the heat from Christa Miller's character as a loving husband. But in an act of profound wisdom McGinley was named a series regular and was given more time in the spotlight. We saw him give friendly advice, see him hang out with another Derek and introduce him to Gaby, offer the kind of support he need to his wife and son. He seems to let everything bounce off him. And then his wife started hanging out with a college friend he'd asked her not to and she didn't tell him. And then she kissed him. McGinley's reaction of pain and anguish as well as the rest of the season was yet another example of what a super actor he's been.

On a side note I've always been an admirer of McGinley's work and never understood why he took so much blame for tanking series in his career. (For God's sake, he was a regular on Married…With Children and it ran for eight more seasons after he joined the show!) He's apparently got a lot of sympathetic and great feedback from so many viewers over the last two seasons and he's earned it for the work he does. Come on Emmys, everybody loves a Derek and you should too.

 

Tomorrow I will wrap this week up with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy as well as some of my hopes for Outstanding Guest Actor and Actress

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