Friday, June 20, 2025

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2025 Emmys, Week 1 Concluded

 

 

So far in this decade this category is frequently dominated by performers from one or two series. The Handmaid's Tale and The Crown did so in 2021. In 2023 five nominees from The White Lotus left little room for any other series. Last year The Morning Show took four slots.

It's possible The White Lotus will receive more than the two nominations I give it and as with Outstanding Supporting Actor I wouldn't be that upset if it did. I would be fine if Natasha Rothwell and Michelle Monaghan were included, less so Aimee Lou Wood. But there are growing signs this may not be the year for The White Lotus in this category. And with so many formidable contenders eligible it may very well end up having the possibility of eight nominees instead of the seven slots available.

For the moment I'm excluding both Severance & The Pitt from this year's group though they may very well end up being a force later on.

 

 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

Carrie Coon, The White Lotus

For the last decade Carrie Coon seemed to be the most undervalued actress in television, receiving no Emmy nominations for her work in The Leftovers or in the second season of The Sinner and being nominated for her stunning work in the third season of Fargo.

And then last year the Emmys finally caught up with her. She was nominated for Best Actress for the second  season of The Gilded Age though she ended up losing to Anna Sawai for Shogun. Now she will likely be nominated for the second straight year for a different HBO series in her brilliant performance as Laurie, the third member of 'the blonde blob' and the one who seems to be the least successful going in. We see her on the outside at first, then trying to make inroads with each of her friends, then going all out on an incredible celebration, then being left on the outside. And in the season finale she delivered an incredible monologue that laid bare all the failures of the friendship and perhaps assured that their friendship will never be the same afterwards – which moved her to frontrunner status among the nominees from The White Lotus.

As with Walton Goggins I would really love to see Coon finally take an Emmy for her work on this show. It's possible the third season of The Gilded Age which will debut in just a few days will serve to remind Emmy voters what a versatile actress Coon is. The Emmys have finally realized what a gem she is. She will prevail, if not this year then soon.

 

Alison Janney, The Diplomat

At the end of last year Allison Janney began to appear regularly on the list of award nominees for her work in the second season of The Diplomat. She was the favorite for a Critics Choice Award for Best Supporting Actress (she lost) and was nominated for Outstanding Female Performer in a Drama along side lead Keri Russell.

This is somewhat astonishing considering Janney's role in Season 2 was relatively limited: her character only appeared in two episodes. But no one who has watched one of the winningest actresses of all time knows that she doesn't deserve everything she gets. In her role as the Vice President – the very role that Kate Wyler has been auditioning for since the Pilot, much of which without her knowledge – there was much anticipation considering all of the scandals that were likely going to force her from office. Then we learned that she had a role in the bombing that led to all of the action that led to the series beginning – and then the President ended up dying, putting her in the White House for Season 3.

For an actress who has won Emmys in every single category for actresses are eligible in Drama and two of them in comedy, it would seem that it would be impossible for her to impress us. Yet the same year after her hysterical comic turn in Palm Royale (when does she sleep?) here Janney is getting recognized for playing a masterminding female politician. Will she win? Probably not. But it's always good to see her there.

 

Skye P. Marshall, Matlock

It takes a great actress to be able to share the screen with Kathy Bates and stare her down. And for someone who was before this series a relative unknown it might have been too much. And in a sense the actress known for her work in such relatively light fair as Black Lightning and Chilling Adventures of Sabrina, it might have been asking too much.

But Skye P, Marshall very quickly proved that she was more than up to the task as Olympia Lawrence, the African-American woman Matlock is both interning for and eventually becomes sympathetic too when she shows up. Marshall is up to the task, making us sympathetic to her most of the season, become harsh when she thinks she's being manipulated by her husband and then in the climax to the season realizing that the woman she trusted and thought was a friend has been lying to her the whole time. The final three episodes were a powerhouse as everything was laid on the table and she began to realize all the possibilities were in front of her – and then learned in the final minutes of the season finale that the man she didn't know the man she married at all – and might very well become aligned in his conspiracy.

Marshall was nominated for a Critics Choice Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama and has already been nominated for an Astra and a Gotham TV award. She received a special prize for Breakthrough Performance from the African-American TV awards earlier this month. Will it be difficult for her to break through against the formidable talent in this lineup absolutely? But I wouldn't bet against it.

 

Isabella Merced, The Last of Us

Arguably the breakthrough performance in Season 2 of The Last of Us was Isabella Merced's work as Dina, the bisexual woman who finds herself at the center of a love triangle in Boulder just before a zombie attack leads to the siege of the town – and her being with Joel when the Wolves take her. When Ellie goes on her mission to Seattle Dina goes with her, not knowing until she gets there that she's pregnant. She learns that Ellie is immune to zombie bites in the worst way and at that moment reveals her pregnancy – and the two of them finally connect. Dina unveils throughout the season she is a powerhouse – but when Jesse shows up and she starts to learn the truth about her girlfriend, a veil goes up – one that might be up forever given the events of the finale.

Merced like Selena Gomez is a singer-songwriter and like Bella Ramsey is a child actress, who has started in Nickelodeon series and done voiceover work in many cartoons. It's safe to say none of that can prepare you for the dark territory she goes to in a veteran cast, combined with a searing monologue she delivers to Ellie when she shares how she ended up in Boulder. She managed an upset victory for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama against a very crowded field which launches her into the top tier of contenders. I look forward to seeing her on the podium – if not now, soon

 

Julianne Nicholson, Paradise

I no longer have to say that Julianne Nicholson is underappreciated by the Emmys because in 2021 the Emmys finally gave her the recognition she was entitled for her incredible work in Mare of Easttown. That award was one of the greatest balms to my soul (I hoped it would happen but I wasn't sure) as someone who has been in awe of her work on TV for the last two decades and was stunned. She hadn't even been nominated for any of the magnificent performances she had given during that period.

Now in 2025 she's hitting us with a triple threat two of which may certainly lead to nominations. Her work as 'Dance Mom' on the fourth season of Hacks has already made her the front runner for Best Guest Actress in A Comedy. And that just shows yet again her versatile for her incredible work as Sinatra, the mind behind the creation of Paradise where the action of the series take place.

We want very much to have sympathy for this tech billionaire mother who's lost her son and essentially builds this city because she wants to save her daughter. But we see throughout the season how much that she sold her soul to do so – and may have been willing to destroy the world to keep her place at the table. She is more aware of the kind of person she is as the final episodes unfold but that doesn't stop her from doing those horrible things. She doesn't quite get what she deserves at the end of the season but it's not nearly enough.

Nicholson is going to get at least one Emmy nomination this year. I really want her to get two. After all, they owe her for shutting her out for Masters of Sex. And Boardwalk Empire. And The Red Road….

 

Parker Posey, The White Lotus

If anything Posey, the queen of the indies, is owed far more recognition than so many of the other actresses in this category. Ever since she made her official TV debut in Tales of The City more than thirty years ago, the Emmys have seemed determined to deny the fact she exists. Whether it is on The Good Wife or Louie, The Staircase or Lost in Space, she has been ignored. Then last year she finally got recognized for her darkly hysterical role as the Other Jane on Mr. & Mrs. Smith and like her co-star Carrie Coon, she's almost certain to go back-to-back for two different shows this year.

Her work as Victoria is one of the purely comic gems of the entire third season as she plays the loving matriarch who very quickly becomes the ugly American, taking Lorazepam every occasion, oblivious to her husband's increasing mental breakdown, judging every single person she meets in Thailand, and absolutely unable to comprehend what Buddhism. It's hysterical watching her get drunk trying to deal with the problems of her family, particularly as her husband keeps getting first stoned and then suicidal. I don't know if Posey can prevail against this competition (much of which will come from her co-stars) but I'm glad to see her prevail.

 

Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets

I was, to put it mildly, appalled when the Emmys chose to skunk Christina Ricci both for her work in Yellowjackets and Wednesday in 2023. I'm not convinced they'll be willing to make it up to her for her work on Yellowjackets this season but they absolutely should.

Misty spent the entire season not mourning her actions which led to the death of Natalie at the climax of Season 2. She also spent the entire season doing everything she could to help her fellow teammates and trying to solve the murder of Lottie. And as always she spent the entire season being ignored by everybody and being suspected of every crime that happened to anyone else (particularly by Shauna) Over and over it was made clear the best thing she could do was walk away from them entirely. But at some level Misty is unable to do so, no doubt out of the guilt in her role in what happened to them after the crash – and which we now know for sure everyone who came back knows her role in it.

Ricci's performance is some of the greatest work she's ever done in a nearly thirty year career, playing a character who in one sense has moved the most in a positive direction since coming back but emotionally is still the same loser she was when she got on the plane. It is the kind of work that deserves all the awards in the book. I hope the Emmys at least nominate her this year.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Deanna Allison, Dark Winds

Allison's work as Emma Leaphorn, the wife of the troubled sheriff Joe Leaphorn is the first acting performance of any kind in her career. Just writing that sentence stuns me because every time I was her play the role of Emma, the caregiver on the Navajo Reservation I think I'm watching someone who's been doing this her whole life.

This season we got to know Emma's life in a way we just haven't before. Joe spent the entire third season dealing with the ramifications of killing the man who murdered his son in Season 2. When Emma realized the horrible truth, we realized just how much of a brave face she puts up to the entire world as she expressed shock and despair at everything her husband did – and that he's making her carry.

But it is the episode where she is interrogated by the FBI and lays bare just how truly horrendous her life has been in a wrenching monologue, hoping she can forgive her husband "But until then, I walk alone" that is the kind of think that absolutely deserves award recognition. She and Joe's marriage may be done forever after what happened (I don't know the books well enough to know) but the pain and agony in those scenes demonstrates the gift of a true powerhouse.

 

OTHER DRAMA NOTES

I'm not prepared to talk about Directing and Writing in a Drama yet. Guest Actor and Actress in  a Drama, that I can do.

The Last of Us will likely have multiple nominees in each category. Kaitlyn Dever and Catherine O'Hara are frontrunners for Outstanding Guest Actress and Jeffrey Wright and Joe Pantoliano early frontrunners in Outstanding Guest Actor.

Hilary Swank has already prevailed for Best Guest Actress in A Drama for her work in Yellowjackets. I'd love to see Joel McHale there for that same series.

Beau Bridges deserves to be there for Matlock and I expect to Jonathan Pryce included for his work in Slow Horses. I'd love to see Mary-Louise Parker recognized for her work on Elsbeth as well as Michael Emerson.

And while I don't know if it works that way I'd love to see Jenna Elfman nominated for her work in Dark Winds. The ballroom dance she did at the dream sequence should be enough.

 

Next Week, I'll be dealing with comedy – which may not have as clear a frontrunner as it did in many categories then it did when the eligibility period ended.

 

No comments:

Post a Comment