My Predictions for This Years Emmys, Part 1: Drama

Normally, every year I try to handicap the Emmys, I do so with a certain level of reluctance. Year after year, I keep hoping that the Academy will manage to do the right thing and recognize shows worthy of it. And year after year, the most deserving series always seem to end up not being mentioned at all.

Until this year. For the first time in at least five seasons, the Emmys managed to nominate a group of shows and actors that were for the most part, deserving of it. Yes, HBO still dominates, but for the first time in quite some time, other more deserving series are sharing the stage with them. Admittedly, there were problems (The Good Wife ignored in favor of Downton Abbey, the CW being completely shut out) but far fewer were more likely to be ignored.  Maybe there's hope, if not necessarily for the broadcast , for the smaller networks that have been shut out.

So here are my predictions. Like last year, I shall expand my predictions to the Best Limited series, since I have a lot more invested in it this time around.

BEST DRAMA

The apparent favorite would, once again, appear to be 'Game of Thrones'. 23 nominations would seem to be enough to guarantee a win. But those of us who have been watching the Emmys know that it isn't always the most nominated series that prevails.

'Downton Abbey hasn't been able to crack the ceiling in its entire run. 'Homeland', while in good form, doesn't seem to have enough momentum. 'House of Cards' improved from last season, but it just doesn't seem to have the momentum. The fight would seem to be between three major series - 'Better Call Saul', 'Mr. Robot', or 'The Americans',

All three series had great seasons and have had mass acclaim. There is more of an argument that 'The Americans' has been waiting in the wings for three great seasons, and more than deserves its time. If I were a member, I'd vote for it. But it's hard to argue with the sensation that USA's 'Mr. Robot' has been, as well as the fact that it has been avoiding the sophomore slump while the nominations came out. The fact that it has triumphed at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice would seem to give it a narrow edge.

Should Win: The Americans

Will Win: Mr. Robot.

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA

This is a tough category. With the exception of Liev Schrieber for Ray Donavan, all of the nominees more than deserve a bite at the apple. And considering that for the last five seasons, five different actors have prevailed, and that none of them are here, we have no history to guide us.

Matthew Rhys' performance as Philip Jennings has been one of the most outstanding works in the medium. He is more than overdue for a victory. But it may be hard for him to prevail in a category with so many better known faces. It is more likely to come down to a showdown between SAG winner Kevin Spacey for House of Cards and Critics Choice Rami Malek. In all honesty, either one would be more than deserving and you could make a convincing case that either deserves to win. However, given the more apparent subtleties in Malek's work, and the fact that the Emmy is having trouble recognizing House of Cards, I'm going to give the barest of edges to Malek.

Should Win: Rhys.

Will Win: Malek.

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA

This is an even tougher category. At one point, it seemed like we were due for another Taraj Hanson/Viola Davis showdown, and it still might be possible, but a poor sophomore season for 'Empire', and diminishing ratings for 'How To Get Away with Murder' make it a lot less likely.

Of the six nominees, Maslany gave the most riveting performance(s), but the one who is by far the most due is Keri Russell, who has been owed an Emmy ever since 'Felicity'. There is a very good chance that, just as Claire Danes performance in 'Homeland' gave her a just reward, they might do the same for Russell, whose work on 'The Americans' has been nothing short of a master class. Still, Hanson is at least as due, so don't rule out her prevailing this year.

Should Win: Russell.

Will Win: Hanson (though really, they're all good choices)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA

This is a tough one to handicap. The most deserving winner wasn't even nominated, and it seemed almost a sure thing that Christian Slater would prevail for 'Mr. Robot' earlier this year. With Alan Cumming being ignored as well, I'm less caring about this award than usual, though there are some good candidates.

Of the six nominees, the one who probably is the most deserving is Jonathan Banks, whose work on 'Better Call Saul' was at least as good as it was last year. But as good as he was, I think its probably going to go to Kit Harington this season. I don't advocate so much because of his performance, but considering that he managed to keep one of the greatest secrets in the history of TV for more than a year, he probably deserves to prevail just for that. And if rumors are true, he may not get another chance.

Should Win: Banks.

Will Win: Harrington.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA

Well, like in the Best Actor category, someone new is bound to prevail, and while many would probably advocate for someone from 'Game of Thrones', I think its far more likely to come down to the choices between the two previous award winners; Maura Tierney, who won the Golden Globe for 'The Affair', and Constance Zimmer, winner of the Critics Choice for 'UnReal'.

This is a tough choice. Both gave among the most memorable performances last season. Both are industry veterans who should've won in previous season.  But I think the best choice this year is Zimmer for her delicious work as Quinn on UnReal. Whatever you may think of Season 2 (which may work against her), her performance was one of the meatiest and most hysterical joys to watch. Even for a series on Lifetime.

Should Win/Will Win: Zimmer.