Wednesday, September 3, 2025

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmy Nominations: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie

 

Note: While all of these categories technically involve TV movies none of major categories of any kind have any acting, directing or writing nominees. However for this category alone I'm going to make an exception as there's a good argument one of the contenders would qualify under that logic.

While this category isn't as strong as the high quality has been over the last decade it nevertheless has numerous formidable contenders who gave superb performances. That said, as with Best Actor, there is a clear frontrunner in this category pretty much since last January. And I think few would argue with her winning.

Here we go.

 

Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer. For Playing: Catherine, who discovers a novel by a reclusive writer has eerie parallels to a real life incident in her childhood. Pro: Blanchett spent most of the early months of 2025 making the awards show circuit for her brilliant work in Alfonso Cuaron's Disclaimer. This show was considered one of the earlier contenders to dominate this category and a large part of that reason was Blanchett's official Peak TV debut, playing an accomplished editor who finds that the most recent novel written  by a publisher bares unmistakable similarities to an incident in her child. This was one of the more restrained performances compared to so many others this past year but it showed the continued majesty of one of the greatest actresses whoever lived. Con: Like many observers I was stunned that Disclaimer wasn't nominated for Best Limited Series and that the show as a whole did very poorly with the Emmys: Blanchett's nomination is the only major one the entire series received. With no real buzz to speak of any remote chance Blanchett had of winning probably died the day of the nominations.

Meghan Fahy, Sirens. For Playing: Devin, who comes to upstate New York to get her sister to take care of her ailing father only to find herself in the bizarre world of the Kells. Pro: Fahy's nomination in this category was by far the biggest shock of the entire Limited Series group, perhaps even of the Emmy nominations itself. But having watched the entire brilliant show in a single week, I can assure you that the Emmys absolutely made the right call. From the moment she carries an edible arrangement for nearly twelve hours in order to throw in her sister's face, she is the voice of sanity in the world of the ultra-wealthy Kell family than Simone has gotten involved in. While the surreal nature of Sirens suggests that there is something supernatural going on for once everything we see has a rational explanation. And in a cast of exceptionally talented actresses and actors, Fahy managed to stand out with her dirty wardrobe, her really sexual performance and her gift for saying the wrong thing and the wrong time. It was the second superb performance Fahy gave in the 2024-2025 season (her first was in The Perfect Couple) and now officially establishes her as one of the great actresses in television. I was personally happy that Fahy was nominated before I saw Sirens. Now once again my faith in the Emmys is restored. Hey, hey. Con: Considering that people thought it was more likely that Fahy's co-star Julianne Moore would be nominated than Fahy, I think it's safe to say that even fans of Sirens were shocked by Fahy being here. Realistically she doesn't have a chance.

Rashida Jones, Black Mirror. For Playing: Amanda, who after a medical emergency is signed up for a high tech system that will keep her alive but begins to destroy who she is. Pro:  Only in a more bizarre world than this could it be possible that this is Rashida Jones first nomination for acting in her entire career. She's been acting in TV since Boston public, starred for two seasons in The Office before moving to Pawnee Indiana, played Angie Tribeca –  there's something more devious at work then Rivermind that this is her first nomination. She's also, I should add, the first actor connected to Black Mirror to receive an Emmy nomination, which is more remarkable. And it helps her stance that 'Common People' the first episode of the current season is by far one of the best episodes of what even fans acknowledge was an uneven season. But that's how Jones has been her entire career: always capable of taking even the most middling material and mining gold from it; when she's given a gem like this, there's no way she can't knock it out of the park. Con: One of her fellow co-stars from the current season of Black Mirror is almost certainly going to win – and of course, it's not going to be for 'Beyond Infinity'

Cristin Milioti, The Penguin EXPERTS PICK, MY PICK. For Playing: Sofia Falcone, released from Arkham Asylum and determined to take over her role as the had of Gotham's most notorious crime family. Pro: It says a lot that even with Colin Farrell giving one of the greatest performances of his entire career, the consensus was that Milioti's performance was one of the most outstanding of 2024. And having watched every minute I agree with that assessment. Every second Milioti was onscreen, even when she was sharing it with Farrell, you could not look aware from her. Her work in the incredible Cent'Anni episode – when we learned just how Sofia ended up in Arkham, having been framed by her father for his crimes, denounced by everyone in her family save her brother, and was subject to the most horrific torture of body and soul – was arguably the highwater mark for The Penguin and ended with an image that would do credit to the writers of Breaking Bad. Yet at every level our sympathies were with Sofia as we saw her realize – with a clarity no one does in Gotham – the vicious cycle she was a part of that and that she was a monster herself. The final episode was a genuine tragedy as we saw with a real possibility of escape only to have it crushed by Oz that shows what a true monster he was as he forced her to endure a fate worse than death. Milioti has already won the Critics Choice Award and the Astra in this category; the fact that she followed this by recreating her iconic role in Black Mirror – which also earned her a prize from the Astras – makes clear her versatility. Nothing can stand her way. Con: I honestly can't think of one. There's never been a moment since February that Milioti didn't have a lock on this at Gold Derby and no one's close to her now.

Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex. For Playing: Molly, determined to have an orgasm with another person before she dies of terminal cancer. Pro: I know it's a cliché to use the phrase "Michelle Williams as you've never seen her before" but how else can I describe her work as she plays Molly a woman who reacts to recurrence of cancer by leaving her apartment to get diet soda and decides that she wants to spend her last days going on a sexual journey? And by the way, all of this is one of the funniest performances I've seen this year? Williams is utterly hysterical, whether she's masturbating to Keanu Reeves in Speed online, hooking up with strangers on Tinder, deciding to punch her neighbor in the crotch while talking dirty to him, deciding to spend her last days having sex in her hospital bed (while an angry orderly keeps looking on) and going through her last days having a hallucination of penises while playing jigsaw puzzles. Williams is a joy every minute she's onscreen and under other circumstances I would total consider her the favorite. Con: Williams already has an Emmy in this category to her credit for her work in Fosse/Verdon. I think she'll do much better in some of the end of year awards (Golden Globes, SAG etc.) but this month she's going to come up empty-handed and I think she's fine with that.

 

PREDICTION: Milioti takes the prize she's basically had locked up since November.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series. This may be the best collection of nominees in this category and though there is an overwhelming frontrunner, I'd argue that there's a better case for at least one of them.

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