Before I begin my official predictions
I hope you'll forgive a brief editorial.
For the first time since I began officially
predicting Outstanding Limited Series as part of my Emmys articles in 2016
(which more or less coincided with the arrival of what I call Peak Limited
Series) the overwhelming favorite and nearly certain winner is one in good
conscience I can't endorse.
I've already make it clear in my reviews
of Adolescence that while I admire the performances and certain aspects
of the writing, this series will not be on my top ten list in any form. In past
years every winner has been a show that I either put high on that list (Baby
Reindeer, Beef, American Crime Story) or one that I could completely
support before the awards (The Queen's Gambit, Chernobyl). At the end of
the day Adolescence strikes me as a step backwards compared to the other
contenders in this category as well the ones that make up the majority of the
other acting nominees. What it reminds me of, honestly, are the kinds of films
the Oscars gives over the years: movies such as CODA or Nomadland, works
that you honor more because of their cultural significance then because they
are entertaining. By and large Peak TV has avoided this trap in almost every major
category with a few exceptions over the years. Adolescence is the first limited
series that really seems like that and it strikes me as a troubling precedent,
particularly when the overwhelming majority of series nominated dealt with dark
subjects but remembered they were supposed to be entertaining first. (I'll
mention a few of them in my predictions because it might be pertinent.)
So while I acknowledge that it will be
one of the big winners in two weeks, I will go into more detail about who I
personally want to win in the major categories than I have in my previous
entries where I've managed to mostly remain objective.
Here endeth the lecture. Now here are
the nominees.
Adolescence (Netflix) EXPERTS PICK. Pro: At this point all signs point to a
coronation for Adolescence at the Emmys in a few weeks' time. It's
already won the overwhelming majority of Best Limited Series awards in the last
few months, from the Astras to the Gotham TV Awards to the Dorian Awards. And
in a very short time it has become the third most watched show in Netflix's
entire history. In a way that may be the greatest sign of just how incredible
the appeal of this show is: Adolescence is the exact opposite of the
kind of show you think about with 'Netflix and chill'. And despite my personal
issues with it, I can't deny the many incredible aspects of it: the one shot
takes, the way it looks at the dark side of an unthinkable attacks, the
incredible levels of every single performance, the way that it looks even briefly
at a terrifying reality that we are only now as a society coming to deal with.
When you throw in the fact that Netflix has won the last two consecutive
limited series awards (and three of the last four) all signs point to an
overwhelming triumph. Con: For all the incredible nature of Adolescence
it is one of those series that often gets nominated because of its
significance rather than its appeal. Indeed in 2019 everyone was certain When
They See Us was going to sweep the Limited Series Emmys and it ended up
being trounced by Chernobyl. It's unlikely to happen here but there is
precedent.
Black Mirror (Netflix) Pro: This extraordinary anthology series
has in fact won multiple Emmys in the Best TV movie category over its long run.
This is the first time it has ever been recognized in the limited series
category which makes you wonder why it took them that long to realize it. And
while the overall quality of the episodes was considered less potent than
previous ones, when it was good – most
powerfully in its sequel to U.S.S McAllister and the exceptional 'Common
People' – it was both a mirror to our society and a look at the reality of the
future. At its best this is as close as the 21st century has gotten
to a Twilight Zone and it deserves recognition. Con: Even the
most devoted fans of the series admit overall its quality was erratic compared
to previous years. I suspect they were as surprised as critics to see the show
nominated this year.
Dying for Sex (Hulu) Pro: This should have been the
most depressing show of all the nominees in this category; instead it was not
only the funniest but also the most life-affirming. And yes, this was a show
where the lead character was diagnosed with a recurrence of terminal cancer in
the first ten minutes. But this was also one of the funniest shows of the
2024-2025 season and in many ways the most daring. Michelle Williams gave one
of the most hysterical performances in her career as she decided to spend her
last months on earth chasing the perfect orgasm. She was supported by a
marvelous group of supporting players, including the incomparable Jenny Slate
and Rob Delaney in a show that made you wonder if comedy is easier than death
if you combine the two. Certainly the final episode where Michelle Williams headed
towards the end with a hallucinatory fantasy of paintings and floating genitalia
was something more TV series need frankly. It was so wonderful watching
everything unfold. Con: Basically it's not Adolescence. That's
the real problem with every nominee in this category.
Monsters: The Erik and Lyle Menendez
Story (Netflix)
Pro: Ryan Murphy
returned to a formula with the second season of his series that was more
familiar to those who'd seen the first season of American Crime Story, with
which it had many historical parallels. Led by an incredible cast of actors you
spent the first third of the season trying to understand what had happened, the
second third believing that the brothers had motivation for what they did and
the final third convinced that they were, in fact, exactly what the title referred
to. Coming away from this series I am now more convinced than ever that the jury
made the right decision – and I'm gratified the parole board confirmed it. There's
no way anyone could come away with the show and not be convinced who the real
victims were and that justice was served. That some came away with the possibility
of room for doubt also shows just good a story teller Murphy and his crew of writers
are. Con: This would be my choice of the Netflix limited series to win
in this category. We all know which one is.
The Penguin (HBO) MY PICK. Pro: Lost in all the acclaim for Adolescence
was the fact that this show was not only the most nominated Limited Series
in the category but the second most nominated series by the Emmys, period. And
it in a perfect world it would dominate
the awards show itself. Using the foundation of The Batman the creators chose
to tell the story of Oz Cobb to create an antihero drama that redefined what
any comic book based series - indeed any
show based of intellectual property – could be capable of. Colin Farrell channeled
Tony Soprano as we saw him playing the man of the people card in order to give
lie to the fact that he was born a monster and will always be one. Supported by
an incredible cast, from Cristin Milioti to Rhenzy Feliz to Diedre O'Connell, The
Penguin was a triumph on every conceivable level. We saw all of the horrors
of Gotham City that Batman almost always misses and how people like the Penguin
can rise to power in the first place. This was the first show I would love to
see a sequel to and it absolutely deserves every prize it gets. Con: Apart
from the problem I listed above, The Penguin has the issue of being
based on a comic book. The Emmys have been more willing to recognize comic book
based series across the board in recent years (Watchmen, Wandavision)
but it's still a hard barrier to cross.
My Prediction: I expect Adolescence to win the
grand prize but I also think The Penguin will win more total Emmys
overall.
Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead
Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie. We all know who's going to win but it is an
incredibly strong field – as it usually is.
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