Thursday, September 4, 2025

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series

 

In the era of Peak Limited Series this category always has two things: arguably the best collection of performers in this genre (though supporting actress can occasionally rival it) and an overwhelming frontrunner. Both are certainly true this year. I accurately predicted five of the six nominees in this category and the only reason I didn't pick the sixth was because not even I dared hope the Emmys would be willing to recognize him.

There is an overwhelming front runner in this category and I don't deny he would be a deserving winner. He's not my pick per se but I won't be upset when he wins. Here we go.

 

Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Erik & Lyle Menendez Story. For Playing: Jose Menendez, the victim and abuser of his sons' violence – who has his own complicated history. Pro: Bardem made a tour of the awards shows at the start of this year, nominated for the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice Awards and the SAG Award for his incredible work as Jose. Bardem is one of the greatest actors of this century in large part because he's known for playing villains so when we see him in the opening flashbacks from the perspective of his sons, it's easy to see him as the villain as a bullying, degrading abusive father figure. It's not much of a stretch to see him as the sexual monster he['s described as by his sons. So it's shocking to see the episode the flashback that tells the story of Jose and Kitty and its revelatory. It doesn't quite excuse everything he's done to his sons, but it casts a shadow on whether he's simply been trying to be a good father and his sons kept disappointing him. And in his final conversation with his mother when we learn not only that he endured a childhood of sexual abuse – but that the cycle didn't even start there -  Bardem does something you would have thought impossible: it partially redeems him in the eyes of the viewer. It's one of the most layered performances by this Oscar winning actor. Con: Bardem went home empty handed during the early months of the year and by the time the Emmy nominations came out, his front runner status was completely gone. It's not going to come back.

Bill Camp, Presumed Innocent  For Playing: Raymond Horgan, ex Cook County DA now tasked with defending his best prosecutor for a crime he's not sure he's innocent of. Pro: Camp's nomination was by far the most surprising in this category and even I hadn't thought it possible. It had nothing to do with Camp's performance or the way the writers expanded Raymond's role beyond canon in this adaptation. In this version we see Horgan losing reelection and dealing with forced retirement and the revelation that he may not have known what was going on in his office this whole time. He spends the first half of the series dealing with this and then being asked by Rusty to take over his defense even though he's clearly not in great health – and indeed during one cross examination he suffers a heart attack that could have killed him. Camp once again demonstrates why he is one of the great character actors working today; the fact that he gave a very different but equally brilliant performance in Sirens  - that he could have just as easily been nominated for – demonstrates yet again why he's always won of the most underrated performers today. Con: Camp's nomination came as a shock to many and I suspect it will be an honor just to be nominated.

Owen Cooper, Adolescence . EXPERTS PICK  For Playing: Jamie Miller, an adolescent accused of an unthinkable crime against a female classmate. Pro: I need to be clear even though I think Adolescence s overrated I don't hold that grudge against any of the performers in the cast. And that is true for Cooper, for whom this is his debut as an actor on any medium. Cooper has already won the Astra and shared in the Gotham TV award for Supporting Performance for his role in this series. As  a child for whom the police raid scares him into wetting his bed we're initially as stunned as his family to learn he's suspected in this horrible crime. He seems like an ordinary child. But then in the third episode, which takes place after he has spent months in juvenile detention, we see him in what will be his last court ordered therapy appointment. Actors in this category took years to develop the mastery of emotions and control that Cooper shows in what is essentially his screen debut. It's more than likely Episode 3 is going to be the biggest winner of any episode on Emmy night and no one can deny that Cooper in particular deserves every bit of honor he gets for it. Con: The only thing working against Cooper is his age. The next youngest performer nominated this year is Bella Ramsey. I don't remember if the Emmys have given a prize for acting for someone this young in my lifetime. It might work against him; it probably won't.

Rob Delaney, Dying for Sex. For Playing: Neighbor Guy, the unlikely sexual soulmate of Molly on her quest for an orgasm. Pro: Delaney's been acting for awhile and while he's been part of some of the most underrated TV shows of all time, a matinee idol he is not. So fittingly Dying leans into every aspect of that when it comes to making him the unlikely companion for Molly on her dying sexual walkabout. We here him making sounds of groaning, he can't make eye contact with Molly in the elevator, their initial encounters involve dirty talk and her kicking him in the penis (they both need to go to the hospital) and it's always hysterically messy every time they're onscreen together. But there's also something sweet about their relationship and Delaney makes it clear he knows his place: once their encounter occurs he gracefully walks out of her life, likely never seeing her again. It's a messy, hysterical performance and Delaney demonstrates he will not let dignity get in the way of giving a great role. Con: See previous entry. Even if Cooper wasn't here, I suspect Delaney would still have issues: while the Emmys have gotten looser on the subject in recent years, they're still not comfortable giving awards for comic performances.

Peter Sarsgaard, Presumed Innocent (MY PICK) For Playing: Tommy Molto, the bitter, utterly hated prosecutor charged with trying his colleague Rusty Sabich for murder. Pro: Almost from the moment Sarsgaard uttered his first line of dialogue Molto came the definition of 'the man you love to hate', a man who even his greatest ally said had 'a persecution complex and a narcissism complex', a man willing to go full scorched earth in order to work in the name of justice. Rusty thought he would fine because the jury would see him for who he was. Then Molto wanted into court and became a completely different man from his opening statement to his cross-examination of Rusty and it was like Jekyll and Hyde – only Hyde was the more sympathetic personality. Sarsgaard actually managed to make Tommy not only more sympathetic by the end of the series but actually looking like the only character who was capable of growing and moving on. He's been my secret favorite for the Emmy ever since I saw the show and I still think he deserves to win. Con: Sarsgaard's problem – aside from the fact he's not Owen Cooper – is that Presumed Innocent struggled a lot in the leadup to the Emmy nominations in other awards show this year. Even I was surprised it did as well with the Academy as it ended up doing. Sarsgaard will win an Emmy some day; just not for this.

Ashley Walters, Adolescence. For Playing: DI Luke Bascombe, trying to make sense of the murder of a thirteen year old girl. Pro: I was honestly afraid that Walters solid and moral performance  - which I actually think is the best overall on this show – would get overlooked in favor of the understandable praise being heaped on Cooper. There are no histrionics for Walters in the way there are for so many of his co-stars; he's just doing his job, trying to make sense of not just a horrible crime but the fact it happened in his town. His performance in the second episode is the most optimistic of the entire series; as he walks through a school and sees the chaos that it's in, seeing how lost and violent these students are and how the faculty doesn't even try to control the chaos, you see something breaking in him. And yet once he makes the connection he does something no other character is able to do. He pulls his teenage son out of school and tries to reconnect with him. In contrast to the rest of the show, Bascombe is the only one who might have a chance at a happy ending or at least being able to put this all behind him. It's a superb piece of acting and I'm glad he was nominated. Con: It's an age old story; the criminal gets recognized far more than the copper.

 

MY PREDICTION: They'll almost certainly have to lower the microphone for the winner this year. On a more serious note, we may see the youngest winner in Emmy history as well as the oldest on the same night.

 

Tomorrow I take us all home with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie and the remaining awards in this category.

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