Friday, September 5, 2025

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys Conclusion: Outstanding Supporting Actress in A Limited Series et al

 

We've come at last to the end of the predictions. The bulk of this article will deal with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series which has a better collection of nominees than I dared hope. I honestly didn't think that two performers I wanted to appear in this category had much of a chance.

While there is another big favorite in this category it's not as solid as the bulk of the other contenders, and there is a chance albeit a slim one, for an upset. Here we go one last time.

 

Erin Doherty, Adolescence. EXPERTS PICK. For Playing: Briony, a court ordered psychiatrist in for her final session with Jamie while he is in lock up. Pro: Doherty has been the overwhelming favorite in this category for Episode 3 in which she plays the court ordered therapist who is seeing Jamie for the last in what have been several sessions since he has been in juvenile custody. It's clear she knows him pretty well, is used to his moods and has been trying to get him to open up in a way he's been refusing too. In the light of Owen Cooper's masterful work Doherty spends the entire episode the picture of professionalism acting with decorum, trying to remain calm in the face of Jamie's outbursts trying to get him to acknowledge how he got here. Its only in the final minutes when she reveals her purpose for being there that Jamie begins to break down. The final minute after Jamie has left and we see Doherty finally lose her professional façade is magnificent. Episode 3 is likely to be the big winner here and Doherty could triumph for it. Con: Unlike Cooper Doherty has yet to notch a single award for her work. She lost the Astra to Cristin Milioti for the latter's work in Black Mirror and while Graham and Cooper took prizes for Adolescence she has yet to. Of all the prizes Adolescence is listed as the favorite in, her position is by far the shakiest.

 

Diedre O'Connell, The Penguin. For Playing: Mrs. Cobb, the beloved mother of Oz suffering from dementia but still aware of what her son has always been capable of. Pro: From the start of The Penguin it was clear the only person Oz cared about at any level was his mother. She was suffering from the late stages of dementia from the start of the series and we were never clear how aware she was of what her son was doing or what he was capable of. It was only in the last two episodes when we learned the horror of what her son had done to his brothers as a child  - and even worse that she had been aware of it but didn't know how to handle it – that we realized the horror of it. The final episode where Oz refused to confess to his mother what she had known his entire life and when she finally turned on him in what was her last moment of lucidity before a paralytic stroke made all the horrors we'd seen almost seem like child's play. O'Connell's work was frequently lose under the power of the two leads but it was just as quietly extraordinary. Con: Even though she got her share of award nominations over the year O'Connell was never able to win a single prize. She would be a worthy candidate but she doesn't have a real chance.

 

Ruth Negga, Presumed Innocent. For Playing: Barbara Sabich, trying to keep her family and her world together when her husband is accused of murdering his former lover. Pro: Negga got her share of nominations in the lead up to the Emmys but like so many of the performers in this cast, few gave her a realistic chance of earning one. But I knew that it would be difficult for the Emmys to ignore the quiet power of Negga's work as the wronged wife in this classic novel. Like more than a few cares Barbara's role was expanded and we got to see how the trial affected her life both as a woman, a professional and a mother. Some might have bickered about her race being swapped for the novel; I actually thought it gave the story more power, particularly as the writers never once made the statement of Rusty having an obsessive affair with a white woman. And it's worth noting that the way they twisting the ending gave the show more power and in a sense more ownership to the Sabich family, particularly for Negga. It was a dignified and exceptional performance more than worthy of a nomination. Con: Negga has the same problem of every nominee from Presumed Innocent; nobody really thought the show would do this well. She would be a deserving winner but she has no realistic chance of it.

 

Chloe Sevigny, Monsters: The Jose & Kitty Menendez Story. For Playing: Kitty Menendez, the mother of Erik and Lyle murdered along with her husband. Pro: If you read my predictions before the nominations came out, I personally advocated for Sevigny receiving a nomination and was relatively certain she would be overlooked. This has been, sadly, the trend of Sevigny for her entire career in film and television. Whether she played Barb in Big Love or C.Z. Guest in Capote Vs. The Swans she never got as much as a nomination from the Emmys and I didn't think it would happen here. So I'm thrilled that the Emmys chose to recognize Sevigny's incredible work as Kitty Menendez, which was just as brilliant as Javier Bardem's work but not nearly as appreciated. To be fair, it was a trickier role Kitty had to play a woman who seemed to be under the thumb of Jose but fundamentally ignorant of what he was doing to their children. And since so much of the defense was laid at what the father had done, Kitty seemed less present. But just as with Bardem, the sixth episode told a far different story of Kitty, someone who clearly loved her husband, who knew she wasn't a good mother, whose sons were selfish and unresponsive and who had realized that she had been the victim of abuse herself. It's clear before the end she might have known what her husband was doing but she asked the question if it came from years of abuse. That final scene of the two eating ice cream together was actually tragic when we saw it, and it played to another level of Sevigny's brilliance. Con: Just because I predicted her being nominated doesn't mean I ever thought she had chance of winning. In truth even in this category she would at best be my fourth choice to prevail. Still I'm glad Sevigny was nominated.

 

Jenny Slate, Dying for Sex. MY PICK. For Playing: Nikki, trying to deal with her best friends illness and all her needs. Pro: How is it that Jenny Slate, hyphenate, indie queen, voiceover artist extraordinaire, beloved comic actress and practically a national treasure already hasn't been nominated for, much less won, an Emmy? She would have been my out and out favorite to win in this category well before the nominations came out. The pedants could argue that Nikki isn't much different from the hot messes Slate frequently plays in movies and TV but the difference is, everyone else but Molly considers a hot mess when she's always been here ride-or-die, a term that now takes on literal connotations. Slate is wonderful turning her life upside down to be with Molly every step of the way, being supportive, dealing with a horrific system and sometimes even being neglected by Molly's narrow-mindedness. But it always comes from a place of love and its clear in the series finale that Nikki is trying to deal with the fact that her platonic soulmate will soon be gone and she'll be left behind. So in the final minutes after Molly leaves this mortal coil, Slate plays it perfectly by saying nothing. The final moments are life-affirming because we see Nikki can move on and up. And unlike everyone else in this category Slate actually has an award to her credit: she tied with Owen Cooper for Best Supporting Lead at the Gotham TV Awards, defeating even overwhelming favorite Erin Doherty. Con: The momentum for Adolescence will likely carry Doherty over the top but it is worth noting that Slate has been given more of a chance than most of Adolescence's opponents in any category by Gold Derby.

 

Christine Tremarco, Adolescence. For Playing: Manda Miller, trying to celebrate her husband's fiftieth birthday in the aftermath of her sons conviction. Pro: Even the most devout Adolescence boosters gave Tremarco little chance of being nominated by the Emmys this year. Unlike the four named leads for the series Manda had few showy moments to stand out, even in the series finale which was very much Graham's show. But there's much to admire in Tremarco's work as we see a devoted wife and mother trying to pretend everything is normal, live with the vandalism to her car, try to keep up with her husband's ebullience which dissolves when they reach the hardware store and then learn that her son is pleading guilty. But much of the power in the episode comes from the back and forth between husband and wife, as they try to pretend their lives are normal while they know perfectly well its been destroyed forever. As they realize that they will spend their lives wondering what they did wrong and if they could have saved their son they find a way, however slim, to move forward out of darkness. It is remote but Tremarco shows it and it is a small gem. Con: If anyone from Adolescence is going to win it's Doherty and I'm pretty sure even Tremarco knows it.

Prediction: Doherty will likely win but don't rule out the possibility of an upset by Slate.

 

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING AND WRITING

I suspect Adolescence will win both categories though I'll be honest my favorite in both writing and direction is the Cent'Anni episode of The Penguin. Don't rule out the possibility of an upset in direction for that one.

The rest of the major awards I'm indifferent about. Stephen Colbert and John Oliver will win for Late Night but I'm not going to watch their speeches this year for reasons I've stated previously. I've never cared about reality shows but I hope Alan Cumming wins because I've always respected him.

 

And that's it for my predictions. I'll have one more post Sunday before the broadcast to deal with my reactions to the Creative Arts Emmys as well as if that shows us any trends.

No comments:

Post a Comment