We've come at last to the end of the
predictions. The bulk of this article will deal with Outstanding Supporting
Actress in a Limited Series which has a better collection of nominees than I
dared hope. I honestly didn't think that two performers I wanted to appear in
this category had much of a chance.
While there is another big favorite in
this category it's not as solid as the bulk of the other contenders, and there
is a chance albeit a slim one, for an upset. Here we go one last time.
Erin Doherty, Adolescence. EXPERTS
PICK. For Playing: Briony,
a court ordered psychiatrist in for her final session with Jamie while he is in
lock up. Pro: Doherty has been the overwhelming favorite in this category
for Episode 3 in which she plays the court ordered therapist who is seeing Jamie
for the last in what have been several sessions since he has been in juvenile
custody. It's clear she knows him pretty well, is used to his moods and has
been trying to get him to open up in a way he's been refusing too. In the light
of Owen Cooper's masterful work Doherty spends the entire episode the picture
of professionalism acting with decorum, trying to remain calm in the face of
Jamie's outbursts trying to get him to acknowledge how he got here. Its only in
the final minutes when she reveals her purpose for being there that Jamie begins
to break down. The final minute after Jamie has left and we see Doherty finally
lose her professional façade is magnificent. Episode 3 is likely to be the big
winner here and Doherty could triumph for it. Con: Unlike Cooper Doherty
has yet to notch a single award for her work. She lost the Astra to Cristin
Milioti for the latter's work in Black Mirror and while Graham and Cooper
took prizes for Adolescence she has yet to. Of all the prizes Adolescence
is listed as the favorite in, her position is by far the shakiest.
Diedre O'Connell, The Penguin. For
Playing: Mrs. Cobb,
the beloved mother of Oz suffering from dementia but still aware of what her
son has always been capable of. Pro: From the start of The Penguin it
was clear the only person Oz cared about at any level was his mother. She was
suffering from the late stages of dementia from the start of the series and we
were never clear how aware she was of what her son was doing or what he was
capable of. It was only in the last two episodes when we learned the horror of
what her son had done to his brothers as a child - and even worse that she had been aware of
it but didn't know how to handle it – that we realized the horror of it. The final
episode where Oz refused to confess to his mother what she had known his entire
life and when she finally turned on him in what was her last moment of lucidity
before a paralytic stroke made all the horrors we'd seen almost seem like
child's play. O'Connell's work was frequently lose under the power of the two
leads but it was just as quietly extraordinary. Con: Even though she got
her share of award nominations over the year O'Connell was never able to win a
single prize. She would be a worthy candidate but she doesn't have a real
chance.
Ruth Negga, Presumed Innocent. For
Playing: Barbara
Sabich, trying to keep her family and her world together when her husband is accused
of murdering his former lover. Pro: Negga got her share of nominations
in the lead up to the Emmys but like so many of the performers in this cast,
few gave her a realistic chance of earning one. But I knew that it would be
difficult for the Emmys to ignore the quiet power of Negga's work as the
wronged wife in this classic novel. Like more than a few cares Barbara's role
was expanded and we got to see how the trial affected her life both as a woman,
a professional and a mother. Some might have bickered about her race being swapped
for the novel; I actually thought it gave the story more power, particularly as
the writers never once made the statement of Rusty having an obsessive affair
with a white woman. And it's worth noting that the way they twisting the ending
gave the show more power and in a sense more ownership to the Sabich family,
particularly for Negga. It was a dignified and exceptional performance more
than worthy of a nomination. Con: Negga has the same problem of every nominee
from Presumed Innocent; nobody really thought the show would do this
well. She would be a deserving winner but she has no realistic chance of it.
Chloe Sevigny, Monsters: The Jose
& Kitty Menendez Story. For Playing: Kitty Menendez, the mother of Erik and Lyle murdered
along with her husband. Pro: If you read my predictions before the
nominations came out, I personally advocated for Sevigny receiving a nomination
and was relatively certain she would be overlooked. This has been, sadly, the
trend of Sevigny for her entire career in film and television. Whether she
played Barb in Big Love or C.Z. Guest in Capote Vs. The Swans she
never got as much as a nomination from the Emmys and I didn't think it would
happen here. So I'm thrilled that the Emmys chose to recognize Sevigny's
incredible work as Kitty Menendez, which was just as brilliant as Javier
Bardem's work but not nearly as appreciated. To be fair, it was a trickier role
Kitty had to play a woman who seemed to be under the thumb of Jose but
fundamentally ignorant of what he was doing to their children. And since so
much of the defense was laid at what the father had done, Kitty seemed less
present. But just as with Bardem, the sixth episode told a far different story
of Kitty, someone who clearly loved her husband, who knew she wasn't a good
mother, whose sons were selfish and unresponsive and who had realized that she
had been the victim of abuse herself. It's clear before the end she might have
known what her husband was doing but she asked the question if it came from
years of abuse. That final scene of the two eating ice cream together was
actually tragic when we saw it, and it played to another level of Sevigny's
brilliance. Con: Just because I predicted her being nominated doesn't
mean I ever thought she had chance of winning. In truth even in this category
she would at best be my fourth choice to prevail. Still I'm glad Sevigny was
nominated.
Jenny Slate, Dying for Sex. MY
PICK. For Playing: Nikki,
trying to deal with her best friends illness and all her needs. Pro: How
is it that Jenny Slate, hyphenate, indie queen, voiceover artist extraordinaire,
beloved comic actress and practically a national treasure already hasn't been
nominated for, much less won, an Emmy? She would have been my out and out
favorite to win in this category well before the nominations came out. The pedants
could argue that Nikki isn't much different from the hot messes Slate
frequently plays in movies and TV but the difference is, everyone else but
Molly considers a hot mess when she's always been here ride-or-die, a term that
now takes on literal connotations. Slate is wonderful turning her life upside
down to be with Molly every step of the way, being supportive, dealing with a
horrific system and sometimes even being neglected by Molly's
narrow-mindedness. But it always comes from a place of love and its clear in
the series finale that Nikki is trying to deal with the fact that her platonic
soulmate will soon be gone and she'll be left behind. So in the final minutes
after Molly leaves this mortal coil, Slate plays it perfectly by saying
nothing. The final moments are life-affirming because we see Nikki can move on
and up. And unlike everyone else in this category Slate actually has an
award to her credit: she tied with Owen Cooper for Best Supporting Lead at the
Gotham TV Awards, defeating even overwhelming favorite Erin Doherty. Con: The
momentum for Adolescence will likely carry Doherty over the top but it
is worth noting that Slate has been given more of a chance than most of Adolescence's
opponents in any category by Gold Derby.
Christine Tremarco, Adolescence. For
Playing: Manda
Miller, trying to celebrate her husband's fiftieth birthday in the aftermath of
her sons conviction. Pro: Even the most devout Adolescence boosters
gave Tremarco little chance of being nominated by the Emmys this year. Unlike
the four named leads for the series Manda had few showy moments to stand out,
even in the series finale which was very much Graham's show. But there's much
to admire in Tremarco's work as we see a devoted wife and mother trying to
pretend everything is normal, live with the vandalism to her car, try to keep
up with her husband's ebullience which dissolves when they reach the hardware
store and then learn that her son is pleading guilty. But much of the power in
the episode comes from the back and forth between husband and wife, as they try
to pretend their lives are normal while they know perfectly well its been
destroyed forever. As they realize that they will spend their lives wondering
what they did wrong and if they could have saved their son they find a way,
however slim, to move forward out of darkness. It is remote but Tremarco shows
it and it is a small gem. Con: If anyone from Adolescence is
going to win it's Doherty and I'm pretty sure even Tremarco knows it.
Prediction: Doherty will likely win but don't rule
out the possibility of an upset by Slate.
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING AND WRITING
I suspect Adolescence will win
both categories though I'll be honest my favorite in both writing and direction
is the Cent'Anni episode of The Penguin. Don't rule out the possibility
of an upset in direction for that one.
The rest of the major awards I'm
indifferent about. Stephen Colbert and John Oliver will win for Late Night but
I'm not going to watch their speeches this year for reasons I've stated previously.
I've never cared about reality shows but I hope Alan Cumming wins because I've
always respected him.
And that's it for my predictions. I'll
have one more post Sunday before the broadcast to deal with my reactions to the
Creative Arts Emmys as well as if that shows us any trends.
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