Tuesday, September 2, 2025

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actor in A Limited Series

 

In the era of Peak Limited Series it is almost unheard of for the awards shows such as the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and Critics Choice Awards to have much impact on the Emmys. This is usually because they tend to cover the end of year awards and the Emmys cover 2024-2025. The last time there was something resembling a correspondence was with The Queen's Gambit back in 2020 and even then Anya Taylor-Joy, who'd won every Best Actress award in the book, still lost to Kate Winslet for Mare of Easttown.

This year is almost certain to prove an exception in two of the major categories this year in large part because pretty much from the Golden Globes on two performers have absolutely owned the acting categories in every major awards show between now and July. One of them is the overwhelming favorite in a category that, even by the immensely high standards we've seen in the past decade, has an incredibly high caliber of nominees and actors.

Here are the nominees.

 

Colin Farrell, The Penguin EXPERTS PICK, MY PICK. For Playing: Oz Cobb, the self-proclaimed 'man of the people cutting a bloody swath through the Gotham Cit underworld to achieve his ends. Pro: Farrell has swept every major acting award in this category from the Golden Globe to the Astras since January and anyone who saw his work as Oz this past year knows he deserved it almost from the first episode on. I've always known Farrell was one of the greatest actors of our time but the way he managed to find a new way of showing one of the most iconic villains in the history of comic books – and made him seem more frightening in a genre known for having extraordinary villains – testifies to his incredible performance. It helped that The Penguin was an organized crime story and Farrell seemed to be channeling James Gandolfini every moment he was onscreen, showing elements of humanity The Sopranos rarely allowed the real one to show but never let us forget in the final two episodes that he was a villain through and through. And the final scene, where he finally achieves everything he's always wanted but has only an illusion to share it with, was one of the most unsettling images I saw all of 2024. When you throw in the fact that Farrell has given some of the best acceptance speeches all through awards seasons – going out of his way to than craft service providers and the producers, while admitting he gave Jamie Lee Curtis Covid -  everybody wants Farrell to win and he will. Con: He does face the issue of having played a comic book character and the momentum for Adolescence.

 

Stephen Graham, Adolescence. For Playing: Eddie Miller, a British pipeworker who learns his son is guilty of a horrible crime. Pro: Adolescence is as much the brainchild of Stephen Graham, one of the most underrated character actors of the 21st century.  He wrote all of the episodes; he directed a couple. And he remained humble throughout giving his role of Eddie a smaller performance compared to the rest. His high point came in the series finale when we saw Eddie celebrating his 50th birthday and trying to ignore what his son did. We saw him going to breakfast with his family, found at a stop at a hardware store that he couldn't escape what had happened and finally reacted to the horrors of what unfolded. Then he learned his son was pleading guilty and then he returned home to face the very real horror that the child he raised had done something unthinkable. It was a portrayal of immense grief that has led him to win the Gotham TV Award in this category earlier this year. There's a possibility momentum for Adolescence will put him over the top. Con: Graham is going to win Emmys for producing and writing. I suspect the Emmys will share the wealth here. Graham will make up for it on the carper for the Globes this year.

 

Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent. For Playing: Rusty Sabich, a Cook County prosecutor who finds he is being prosecuted for the murder of his former mistress by the system he  spent years upholding. Pro: Were it not for the presence of Farrell in this category Gyllenhaal would be my favorite to win. As early as this past November I thought this reimagining of the best selling novel had the kind of powerful acting that deserved nominations and awards. And none of that was more present than Gyllenhaal's incredible work as Rusty, who clings to his innocence even as the noose tightens around him every episode. There's a rage and cutthroat nature to Rusty as he increasingly becomes more reckless and angrier with each new twist, seeing enemies everywhere. Even those of us who know the original book and his actions couldn't help but wonder the closer we got to the end: is he really guilty? It is one of the great performances in Gyllenhaal's nearly quarter of a century career. Con: Both Gyllenhaal and the show had a lot of trouble making the roster of so many end-of-year awards shows and many insiders were stunned (though I wasn't one) that Gyllenhaal was nominated. And this is a category with many formidable performances. The nomination will have to serve.

 

Bryan Tyree Henry, Dope Thief. For Playing: Ray Driscoll, a delinquent who poses as a DEA agent to rob a house and unintentionally reveals and unravels the biggest narcotics corridor on the Eastern seaboard. Pro: Henry has been one of the more formidable African-American actors ever since he burst onto the scene as Paper Boi in Donald Glover's masterpiece Atlanta, for which he deservedly received his first Emmy nomination. Ever since then he's made an impact in dark dramas and frightening comedies. So in a sense his work in Dope Thief is very much keeping in with that trend, a man who plays a part, realizes how deep he's gotten in and keeps getting in deeper and deeper. He received his share of nominations leading up to this and won a jury prize from the Gotham TV awards for it and it is another feather in a cap that is getting very full. Con: Henry's nomination is the only one Dope Thief received from the Emmys. And as Robert Downey, Jr learned the hard way last year, that's usually not enough to put you over the top no matter how great your work is in a Limited Series.

 

Cooper Koch, Monsters: The Erik & Lyle Menendez Story. For Playing: Lyle Menendez, who claims he and his brother murdered their parents after a childhood filled with sexual abuse. Pro: Apparently Cooper Koch knew he was supposed to play Lyle Menendez. And watching him inhabit the role I can see this wasn't braggadocio. For the first third of the series, Koch makes Lyle seem the most likely the snap, the one who feels the most guilt, the one who can't handle what's happening to him. Then he confides the decades of abuse he underwent at the hands of his parents, and in what was one of the best episodes of 2024 'The Hurt Man', we watch what is a one shot of Lyle confiding every detail of what he went through at the hands of his father and mother.  It certainly earned him the nomination he got – which makes it all the more remarkable that for the remainder of the series Koch turns his character around in such a way that you wonder if he's managed to sell the public and his attorney a bill of goods.  The final scene -  almost certainly fictional – will haunt me because it makes you wonder who's been driving the train the whole time. It is a performance for the ages. Con: So was Evan Peters' work as Jeffrey Dahmer and the voters wouldn't give him the Emmy. And this is a far stronger field that one.

 

MY PREDICTION: Farrell completes the sweep of every possible acting award that he stopped Richard Gadd from doing this January for Baby Reindeer.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series. Second verse, same as the first.

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