After the Republican Revolution in 1994 in
order to help maintain Democrats who represented conservative-leaning
districts (mostly in the South) a unified voice the Blue Dog Coalition was
founded. The term was coined by Pete Geren a Texas Democrat who claimed that the
extreme Democrats had choked the members blue.
While the party was in retreat the Blue Dog
Membership would constantly grow and would be responsible for the Democrats
retaking the House in 2006 when fifteen members were elected. At their height
in 2008, more than one in five Democrats in the House were Blue Dog Democrats.
Over the decade they adapted more socially liberal stances to stay in alignment
with mainstream party voters. And starting then they were the target of the
left flank because they were encourage to field primary challenges to any Democrat
who didn't vote for the war in Iraq. Their work was responsible for making
Affordable Care act getting narrow passage through the house, passing by only
five votes. The Washington Post named them the most influential voting bloc in
the House in 2009.
But because of these positions combined
with the Obama-era DNC choosing to abandon the 50 state strategy of Howard
Dean, they were among the biggest casualties in the 2010 midterms. Two of the
delegations leaders, Stephanie Herseth Sandin and Baron Hill lost reelection
and their numbers shrank to 26 combined with retirements. That number was
halved to 14 in 2014.
It's worth noting that during the 2016 and
2018 elections the Blue Dog Democrats actually grew considerable, reaching a
caucus of 24. 11 members defeated Republican incumbents in 2018 in districts
that had gone for Trump. But the attention of America was driven to 4 far left
Democrats who'd managed to win House Races.
Much of the internecine battles between the
left flank and the Blue Dogs were part of the Democratic Party's attempt to try
and balance the growing left with the need for white working class voters, This
need became all the more critical when Biden received just 33 percent of the white-working
class vote in 2020. While this was an improvement over Hilary Clinton's 28
percent in 2016, the Party knew it was in trouble
At the start of the 118th
Congress six of the fifteen members departed, so the group reorganized and
began an effort to stabilize. This included a recruitment drive which prompted
Mary Peltola of Alaska, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington and Jared Golden
of Maine to focus on ideological centrism, and pragmatic constituency-based
(especially rural and working class politics). They're job was to advocate for
fiscal responsibility and bipartisan consensus, opposing legislation that they
thought was either too far to the right or to the left
Almost from the start their leadership led
them constant attacks by AOC and other members, much in the same way left-wing
Senators had focused their attacks on Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema in the
Senate.
Most of them are either in swing districts
or even Republican ones. Perez, Golden, and Henry Cuellar represent districts
that Trump carried both in 2020 and 2024. Members such as Josh Gottheimer of
New Jersey and Adam Gray of California's 13th and Vincente Gonzalez
of Texas 34th are in swing districts. Particularly in the current
congress the Blue Dogs have been under attack from the left more than the
Republicans because of their decisions to take position their constituents
would want but the far left faction doesn't. Most prominent were Perez and Golden's
vote against shutting down the government and then reopening it, a decision
that was a factor in Golden choosing not to run for reelection this cycle.
While so many Americans were paying
attention to those primary campaigns run by the Justice Democrats and DSA
candidates the Blue Dogs were engaging in a primary drive of their own. They
endorsed 9 primary candidates along side all of their incumbents. In addition
two former members Melissa Bean, who represented Illinois 8th
district fr0m 2005-2011 and Ben McAdams who was part of it in his one term in
Utah from 2018-2020 are expected to return to Congress, though they haven't yet
announced if they will rejoin their former caucus.
Here is the complete list of candidates
who've won with their endorsements:
Joanna Mendoza, Arizona 6th
Bale Dalton, Florida 7
Leela Gray, Florida 13th
Zach Dembo, Kentucky 6
Sam Forstag, Montana 1st
Blake Gendebien, New York 21
Jamie Ager,
North Carolina 11
Brian Poindexter, Ohio 7
Bob Brooks, Pennsylvania 7
Bobby Pulido, Texas 15
Johnny Garcia, Texas 35
Rebecca Cooke, Wisconsin 3rd
With three official losses – Thein Ho and
Jasmeet Bain in California and Shannon Bird in Colorado, that makes the Blue
Dog Democrats track record in Democratic primaries twelve wins (fourteen if you
count McAdams and Bean) and three losses. That's twice as many wins as the
Justice Democrats managed in the 2026 primary cycle and six more than the DSA
did. And in overall winning percentage in their primaries they have a much
better track record that either group did this cycle.
Many of them are running in the same states
that many Justice Democrats also ran candidates but there are far more that
they didn't. The Justice Democrats didn't try to run a candidate in Florida
this cycle, the Blue Dogs ran two, nor did they try to run one in Kentucky or
Montana. And its worth noting Jamie Ager managed win his primary in North
Carolina where as Nida Allam failed in her second attempt to win earlier this
year.
Many of the candidates will be fighting it
out in districts the Democrats need to win this cycle. Brooks is challenging
Ryan McKenzie, who won his district by one percent in 2024. Garcia is trying to
join Gonzalez and Cueller as part of that coalition after the maps were redrawn
by Texas last. Cooke is trying to beat Derrick Van Orden who ran five points
behind Trump in 2024.
For some their chances have improved due to
events having nothing to do with them. Max Miller was a heavy favorite to win
reelection until a marital scandal became so public his father in law, Ohio
Senator Bernie Moreno, said he refused to support him and that he should
resign. Miller has stayed in the race and now the odds have shifted heavily in
Poindexter's favor. When Ryan Zinke in Montana chose not to run for reelection
Sam Forstag suddenly got a boost at the district has become a toss-up. As for
Blake Gendebien, Elsie Stefanik's district seemed safe until Anthony Constantino
faces multiple lawsuits, most recent from the fiancé of a Republican Committee
chair who he accused of being arrested for a DWI.
Unlike the overwhelming majority of the
Justice Democrats and the DSA candidates all of the candidates the Blue Dogs
are running face an uphill battle. Most of the ones I've listed are all running
in districts that are ranked as toss-ups while many are running in races that
are magenta at best and crimson at worst. For some the odds are clearly
shifting – Dembo and Forstag have shown considerable momentum in the last month
– but it's going to be a difficult fight for the dozen who are running.
I suspect many of them will have an
advantage that the Justice Democrats don't have: both House Leadership, the DNC
and all affiliates of the party have a far more vested interest in Blue Dog
Democrats winning then getting more members of the Squad. As I've mentioned
before the only think that group of primary winners will do is change the names
of some of the members of the Democratic caucus. The Blue Dog Democrats are
trying add to the numbers of it and they will have a bigger role in whether
Hakeen Jeffries becomes Speaker and if he does, how big a majority he will
have. It will help the Democrats more if Bob Brooks wins in Pennsylvania then
when Chris Rabb inevitably does even if the left will cheer the latter and not
even care about who the former is.
For the record the Blue Dog Democrats are
being supported by the Progressive Democrats which is officially aligned with
Bernie Sanders. With that said I suspect that the alliance is more for the
Sanders' wings benefit then the Blue Dogs. Sanders's own track record of
endorsing candidates is notoriously spotty. This cycle alone he endorse a
left-wing candidate in the Utam 1st against Ben McAdams' , a former
and likely future Blue Dog, and McAdams's trounced his candidate easily. What's more none of the members of the Blue
Dogs are associated with the far more left-leaning Justice Democrats who have publicly
reviled them since they joined Congress in 2018 despite the fact that it was
not until 2024 that they officially tied the Blue Dogs with ten members apiece.
While comparisons between Blue Dogs and the
Justice Democrats success in Senate races are harder to clarify it is worth
noting that Abdul El-Sayid, the Democratic nominee in Michigan ran under the
Justice Democrat banner in his unsuccessful run for governor in 2018. (He lost
the nomination to Gretchen Whitmer.) Mary Peltola, who lost reelection in 2024
for her House seat is mounting a political comeback for the Senate in Alaska. As
I've written this year most of the Democrats to win Senate nominations in swing
states such as James Talarico in Texas and Josh Turek in Iowa, managed to
defeat far left Democrats while the left's attempt to run Graham Platner in
Maine publicly exploded this summer. All five candidates are currently favored
to win their seats on Election Day far more heavily then such prominent
left-wing candidates as Annie Andrews in South Carolina and DSA member Angie
Nixon in Florida, though of course a lot can happen between now and election
day.
The right-wing media and the current administration
have spent much of the past decade trying to tar the entire Democratic Party
with labels such as 'radical left' and 'socialists'. Far too often in this cycle
the mainstream media has been willing to play into the narrative the right
wants and that the Bernie-AOC wing considers a badge of honor. They've never
had any real use for Blue Dogs, usually choosing to consider them DINOs which
is laughable considering that the loudest speakers have been Democratic for far
less time than most of the Democrats they criticize and quite a few aren't even
actual Democrats.
The reason is one the left really doesn't
want to face. At their height the Blue Dog Coalition proved that not only was
it sometimes easier for the Democratic Party to win without the left's help,
something it was completely unnecessary. They serve as a blatant contradiction to the narrative the left keeps
trying to push: that Americans all want the far left agenda they prefer. It
contradicts the reality of the half century since McGovern's 49 state landslide
defeat drove the nail in the coffin of the liberal order and that the successes
Democrats have had electorally since then – the New South of the 1970s,
Clinton's Third Way and the 50 state strategy of 2006 and 2008 - came when the party went where the voters were,
rather then where the left says they should be.
The left has spent far more time trying to
argue these successes were failures then they have trying to convince the electorate
to embrace their policies - perhaps
because deep down they know they can't do that. It's far easier to blame the
system and say there's no difference between the two parties rather then try to
realize your vision. In the decade since Trump first won in 2016 the left has
done much to create the illusion that there's a movement for what they're
selling and the Republicans are more than happy to play into because it
benefits them.
The reality of the 2026 Democratic
primaries is different then the narrative so many want it to be: voters are in
favor of a center-left party but the emphasis is on center. The track record of the Blue Dog Democrats
cycle as well as the fact that even some progressive Democrats are willing to
back them shows that this as what the voters want. If those who back the AOC's
and Mamdani's have a problem with that, they need to be reminded of their place
in the Democratic House Caucus. The Democrats success in the House will be owed
far more to the success of candidates like Brian Pointdexter and Ben McAdams' then
it ever will Ilhan Ohmar and Rashida Tlaib and they would do well to remember
that because Hakeem Jeffries should and will.
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