Thursday, September 3, 2026

My Predictions for the 2026 Emmys, Week 3, Day 4:Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie

 

One of the reasons I'm not thrilled the Emmys is regulating this award, like so many involving limited series, to the Creative Arts circle is because they involve a group of masterful performances by some of the best actors who've worked in TV for a while. Some we've only become aware of recently, some of them have around for decades, all of them are incredible forces. There are no bad choices in this category.

Here are the nominees.

 

Jason Bateman, DTF St. Louis. For Playing: Clark Forest, a weatherman involved in a love triangle with the wife of his best friends that plays out in increasingly bizarre ways over a long summer. Pro: Bateman is one of two nominees in this category nominated for two different series. And his role as Clark is light years removed from who he played in Black Rabbit. To see Bateman performer power moves in the opening credits to 'Let the Sunshine In' was just the start of seeing an incredible comic dynamic of a man who was willing to engage in truly bizarre sexual fantasies, engage in a rap ballad about acting an insurance physical, and become part of a friendship so deep he's willing to do anything possible to try and help a man he truly loves which involves things that are simultaneously so absurd and misread that he's willing to go to prison for murder rather than let Floyd's son learn the truth about his father. It was one of the most delightful performances in a series full of them and I would love it if Bateman could win. Con: We all know if there's an Emmy winner in this category from DTF St. Louis its going to go to the guy who actually aced the motherf---ing insurance physical.. See below.

Richard Gadd, Half Man. For Playing: Reuben the violent half-brother who shows up at the wedding of Niall with a decades old grudge to play out. Pro: If this show had been nominated for more Emmys I would have picked Gadd no question. If you thought his work in Baby Reindeer was a revelation there's no way you could be prepared for his work as the adult Rueben, a man who comes out of prison looking like someone straight out of the manosphere and finds himself drawn yet again to Niall, the man who put him in their first place. Gadd referred to Reuben as a performer, someone who you could never tell if he was being honest even to himself and it was frightening seeing a man who oozed menace with every fiber of his being and yet you could tell was broken every step of the way. He was damaged beyond repair before we ever met him and his character is a story who is the monster and the victim of the society we build. Even in the last minutes of the series when he has inflicted vengeance at the cost of his own life, he seems surprised even by himself. A tour de force. Con: Aside from the fact that Gadd is the sole nominee from Half Man (a travesty) Gadd did deservedly win several Emmys for Baby Reindeer just two years ago. The Emmy's paid its debt already.

David Harbour, DTF St. Louis (EXPERTS PICK, MY PICK) For Playing: Floyd Smernitch, an ASL interpreter for a local news station with a broken penis found dead in a public men's room – which is where his story begins. Pro: Even before America fell in love with him as Sheriff Harper on Stranger Things Harbour has been one of the great utility actors in 21st century TV. And what a joy it must have been for him to play a man so basically decent and kind that he lets his best friend have sex with his wife because he doesn't want to disappoint her. Floyd is overweight, with a bent member and a man who wants to do everything possible to make the world a better place, even if it means looking like a complete buffoon doing so. The fact that we know before the first episode is close to finish that he has met his end would be despairing if we didn't love his journey every step of the way. Harbour is long overdue recognition from the Emmys for all his years in television. He has already received the Gotham TV award for Best Supporting Performance in a Limited Series and an Emmy would seem to be close at hand. Con: That Charles Melton managed to prevail at the Astra last month could argue that it's not as locked up as it appears.

Richard Jenkins, DTF St. Louis. For Playing: Inspector Horner, working with a small-town investigator involving the death of a resident unveils a bizarre underbelly of Twyla. Pro: Jenkins's nomination for his work in the series was a pleasant surprise for me. I had thought it was more than worthy of a nomination but I was sure it would be overlooked by the more obviously brilliant work of Bateman and Harbour. But seeing how Horner proceeds through an increasingly bizarre and hysterical world with his new partner really made me believe that this show was turning True Detective on its ear. Even allowing that level might have been just in the eye of the beholder it was wonderful to see Jenkins's return to the deadpan comedy I'd first become aware of in his brilliant work in Six Feet Under as a detective who just isn't used to a porn-positive partner. It's another in a long line of great performances. Con: He's at the bottom of the odds of all the nominees which is fair. But really everyone in this category should be honored to be nominated with him.

Charles Melton, Beef (DARK HORSE) For Playing: Austin, a Korean-American whose devotion to Ashley leads him down a path he never thought possible. Pro: Throughout Season 2 Melton's character is the only one who has a moral compass that he holds on to almost the entire way through. He's very devoted to Ashley at first and he's not nearly as bright as he wants to be but it's clear from the start his light is being dimmed by a partner who is morally compromised. Throughout the series you can tell that he wants to do the right thing and it seems by the end of the season he's shown the most really growth – until in the final minutes he decides to see the smaller picture, and as we see in the denouement he's become everything he most loathed at the start. Melton is by far the most promising talent in this group and the fact that he prevailed at the Astras over several more established performers shows how much his work is favored. Con: It's probably not going to be good enough to get him over the mountain that is DTF ST. Louis.

Nick Offerman, Death by Lightning. For Playing: Chester Arthur, a second rate New York politician who becomes Vice President and then an unlikely President after the shooting of James Garfield. Pro: First of all Offerman is basically built like Chester Arthur and I hate to say it but Ron Swanson wishes he had Arthur's mustache. More to the point this is the most recent role in so many years that demonstrates just how versatile Offerman is. So many of the characters he's played in recent years have an inner toughness and confidence that its stunning to see him play a politician who famously had no ambitions and then found himself thrust into the seat of power he himself didn't think he was fit to qualify for. Offerman himself has considered his work in this series as some of the best he's ever done and it's more than worthy of a man who was nominated in this category in two different genres this year. Con: Offerman, if he has a chance of winning, is more likely to prevail in Margo's Got Money Troubles. (Hey if he wanted to win he should have taken a role in Widow's Bay.)

 

Prediction: Harbour will almost certainly prevail and I'm overjoyed to see it happen.

 

Tomorrow I wrap this up with Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series and other winners in the Limited Series category that hopefully will be moved to prime time next Monday.

 

 

 

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