As I mentioned when the nominations
came out this particular category is the only one of almost every major Emmy
category that I have an issue with the majority of the nominees. And since that
in itself is a rarity I think I'm entitled to editorialize slightly here.
With due respect for three of the
nominees the Emmys have done a major disservice to at least three incredible
lead performances by excluding them. I speak not just of Paul Anthony Kelly for
Love Story and Jamie Bell for Half Man but also Michael Shannon
for Death By Lightning or for that matter Jude Law for Black
Rabbit. The third season of Monster
was considered a huge disappointment by most critics and viewers and to
recognize so much of the talent there as opposed to Half Man and Death
by Lightning represent a failure on the part of the Emmys in what was
essentially one of their better jobs in what has always been a top-heavy
category. They've been improving immensely over the last few years. This is a
slight misstep.
With that in mind, here are my
predictions.
Riz Ahmed, Bait. For Playing:
Shah Latif, a struggling actor who might be the next James Bond – if he can
survive the night. Pro: Ahmed
has over a very short period of time become one of the most undervalued actors
in film and TV. Here he questions the world of race, Hollywood, capitalism and
the place we have to keep in our culture in a show that is both dead-on in all
of them and grimly funny simultaneously. This is a passion project for Ahmed
which he wrote and produced for Amazon in a series that brings about superb
moments for our time. Con: Ahmed's nomination is the only one Bait received
from the Emmys and we know what that means. Combined with the fact that he has
already won in this category for The Night Of makes it certain he has no
real chance.
Jason Bateman, Black Rabbit. For
Playing: Vince Friedken, the brother of a New York restaurateur who brings
chaos and gangsters into the world. Pro: Bateman is one of the most nominated presences at the
Emmys this year, nominated for producing and a supporting role in DTF St.
Louis and for directing and lead acting in Black Rabbit. He spent
much of the end of last year touring the awards circuit for his role in the
latter, he will likely do the same at the end of this year for the latter. And
it speaks to the incredible versatility of Bateman, who before this was already
one of the great forces in television no matter which genre he was part of that
the criminal brother who can't be trusted is so different from the adulterous
weatherman in character that you really can't believe the same actor is playing
the same role. That's before you get to the fact that Bateman has a horrible
track record with the Emmys. He has been nominated for acting, directing and
producing 16 times – four this year alone – and yet has only once for
directing. The Emmys really owes him at least one award in that category by
now. Con: If Bateman wins an Emmy
this year – which he might – it will more likely be for DTF St. Louis. And
even then it's an uphill climb.
Charlie Hunnam, Monster: The Ed
Gein Story. For Playing: Ed Gein, one of the first and most notorious
serial killers in American history. Pro: Somehow this is the first Emmy nomination, really the
first major award nomination that Hunnam has ever gotten. He was completely
ignored (as was the entire show) for his work as Jax Teller in a show that was
one of the most critically acclaimed of all times Sons of Anarchy. He
has been part of such classic films as Children of Men and countless
cult classics in the world of film and somehow this is his first major acting
nomination he's gotten for anything. And as with all the previous versions of
this series Hunnam disappears entirely into one of the greatest monsters that
even after decades we are still struggling to comprehend. One can question
whether this story should have been told but with Hunnam to anchor it you
couldn't look away. Con: The third season that has been by far suffering
the greatest backlash even before it debuted. It didn't help matters that by far
this was the most disorganized, chaotic and overly gruesome season of a series
that has been struggling with the argument it has glamorized its subject matter
for a long time. While Hunnam receive every Best Actor in a Limited Series
nomination at the end of the year the third season was not and it played out
that same way in the Emmys. Hunnam is by far the best thing about what has been
considered a truly horrific season and that's not a compliment.
Oscar Isaac, Beef (Experts
Pick, My Pick). For Playing: Joshua, the manager of a country club struggling
both with his unstable job and the
falling apart of his marriage.
Pro: Somehow Isaac, who is one of the greatest actors of the last twenty
years has not won a single award for any of his brilliant film and television
work. Here, reunited with his co-star from Inside Llewyn Davis, Isaac
gets to play Josh a man who has reached his forties and has failed in almost
everything, from his life's ambitions to his marriage. And it turns out when he
is caught in a compromising position, he is just as horrible at being an
extortionist or being extorted, someone who is being squeezed from above and
below, someone who doesn't know what the right thing is anymore. As the season
continues to unfold and he ends up being caught in a position where everything
is going to be taken away from him he continues to overestimate his position in
the food chain and keeps screwing up. Yet there's an argument by the end of the
series, both in the climax and the denouement that he seems to have come out on
the other side having won. It's a superb performance of every level and worthy
of recognition. Having triumphed at the Astras last month, he seems to be set
up for a victory. Con: It is possible that the fact that some people
were underwhelmed by Season 2 of Beef will end up working against almost
every nominee. Isaac will probably not suffer for it, but it's definitely
possible.
Matthew Rhys, The Beast in Me. (Dark
Horse) For Playing: Nile
Jarvis, the real estate mogul who may have killed his wife years ago and is
trying to reestablish his legacy with his next door neighbor. Pro: Before
he stunned everybody with his work in Widow's Bay as a man unable to
deal with supernatural monsters, Rhys was just as stunning as a man whose mere
presence was utterly terrifying every time he was onscreen. Every time he and
Aggie Wiggs shared a scene, your skin would crawl and you would be terrified
for the potential for harm that seemed just below the surface and as the series
progresses it was very clear he had that potential to do horrible things. For
an actor whose spent his career playing conflicting Everyman to this point
Rhys's work as Nile Jarvis was as much a revelation as his work as Tom Loftis
would be this spring. Rhys made Emmy history by becoming the first actor in
thirty years to be nominated as Best Actor in Comedy and Limited Series and
there are few actors I think deserve the privilege more. Con: The Emmys
have never given any performer an Emmy for acting in two categories during the
same year. While Rhys absolutely deserves to become the first to do so, I truly
think the Emmys will spread the love just a little considering he's a lock to
win Best Actor in a Comedy.
My Prediction: While I admit it’s a
somewhat underwhelming group Isaac will likely end up rising to the top for his
first Emmy.
Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead
Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie. And this year TV Movie is very central to
who might win.
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