Tuesday, September 1, 2026

My Predictions for the 2026 Emmys, Week 3, Part 2: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama

 

As I mentioned when the nominations came out this particular category is the only one of almost every major Emmy category that I have an issue with the majority of the nominees. And since that in itself is a rarity I think I'm entitled to editorialize slightly here.

With due respect for three of the nominees the Emmys have done a major disservice to at least three incredible lead performances by excluding them. I speak not just of Paul Anthony Kelly for Love Story and Jamie Bell for Half Man but also Michael Shannon for Death By Lightning or for that matter Jude Law for Black Rabbit.  The third season of Monster was considered a huge disappointment by most critics and viewers and to recognize so much of the talent there as opposed to Half Man and Death by Lightning represent a failure on the part of the Emmys in what was essentially one of their better jobs in what has always been a top-heavy category. They've been improving immensely over the last few years. This is a slight misstep.

With that in mind, here are my predictions.

 

Riz Ahmed, Bait. For Playing: Shah Latif, a struggling actor who might be the next James Bond – if he can survive the night. Pro: Ahmed has over a very short period of time become one of the most undervalued actors in film and TV. Here he questions the world of race, Hollywood, capitalism and the place we have to keep in our culture in a show that is both dead-on in all of them and grimly funny simultaneously. This is a passion project for Ahmed which he wrote and produced for Amazon in a series that brings about superb moments for our time. Con: Ahmed's nomination is the only one Bait received from the Emmys and we know what that means. Combined with the fact that he has already won in this category for The Night Of makes it certain he has no real chance.

 

Jason Bateman, Black Rabbit. For Playing: Vince Friedken, the brother of a New York restaurateur who brings chaos and gangsters into the world. Pro: Bateman is one of the most nominated presences at the Emmys this year, nominated for producing and a supporting role in DTF St. Louis and for directing and lead acting in Black Rabbit. He spent much of the end of last year touring the awards circuit for his role in the latter, he will likely do the same at the end of this year for the latter. And it speaks to the incredible versatility of Bateman, who before this was already one of the great forces in television no matter which genre he was part of that the criminal brother who can't be trusted is so different from the adulterous weatherman in character that you really can't believe the same actor is playing the same role. That's before you get to the fact that Bateman has a horrible track record with the Emmys. He has been nominated for acting, directing and producing 16 times – four this year alone – and yet has only once for directing. The Emmys really owes him at least one award in that category by now. Con:  If Bateman wins an Emmy this year – which he might – it will more likely be for DTF St. Louis. And even then it's an uphill climb.

 

Charlie Hunnam, Monster: The Ed Gein Story. For Playing: Ed Gein, one of the first and most notorious serial killers in American history. Pro: Somehow this is the first Emmy nomination, really the first major award nomination that Hunnam has ever gotten. He was completely ignored (as was the entire show) for his work as Jax Teller in a show that was one of the most critically acclaimed of all times Sons of Anarchy. He has been part of such classic films as Children of Men and countless cult classics in the world of film and somehow this is his first major acting nomination he's gotten for anything. And as with all the previous versions of this series Hunnam disappears entirely into one of the greatest monsters that even after decades we are still struggling to comprehend. One can question whether this story should have been told but with Hunnam to anchor it you couldn't look away. Con: The third season that has been by far suffering the greatest backlash even before it debuted. It didn't help matters that by far this was the most disorganized, chaotic and overly gruesome season of a series that has been struggling with the argument it has glamorized its subject matter for a long time. While Hunnam receive every Best Actor in a Limited Series nomination at the end of the year the third season was not and it played out that same way in the Emmys. Hunnam is by far the best thing about what has been considered a truly horrific season and that's not a compliment.

 

Oscar Isaac, Beef (Experts Pick, My Pick). For Playing: Joshua, the manager of a country club struggling both with his  unstable job and the falling apart of his marriage. Pro: Somehow Isaac, who is one of the greatest actors of the last twenty years has not won a single award for any of his brilliant film and television work. Here, reunited with his co-star from Inside Llewyn Davis, Isaac gets to play Josh a man who has reached his forties and has failed in almost everything, from his life's ambitions to his marriage. And it turns out when he is caught in a compromising position, he is just as horrible at being an extortionist or being extorted, someone who is being squeezed from above and below, someone who doesn't know what the right thing is anymore. As the season continues to unfold and he ends up being caught in a position where everything is going to be taken away from him he continues to overestimate his position in the food chain and keeps screwing up. Yet there's an argument by the end of the series, both in the climax and the denouement that he seems to have come out on the other side having won. It's a superb performance of every level and worthy of recognition. Having triumphed at the Astras last month, he seems to be set up for a victory. Con: It is possible that the fact that some people were underwhelmed by Season 2 of Beef will end up working against almost every nominee. Isaac will probably not suffer for it, but it's definitely possible.

 

Matthew Rhys, The Beast in Me. (Dark Horse) For Playing: Nile Jarvis, the real estate mogul who may have killed his wife years ago and is trying to reestablish his legacy with his next door neighbor. Pro: Before he stunned everybody with his work in Widow's Bay as a man unable to deal with supernatural monsters, Rhys was just as stunning as a man whose mere presence was utterly terrifying every time he was onscreen. Every time he and Aggie Wiggs shared a scene, your skin would crawl and you would be terrified for the potential for harm that seemed just below the surface and as the series progresses it was very clear he had that potential to do horrible things. For an actor whose spent his career playing conflicting Everyman to this point Rhys's work as Nile Jarvis was as much a revelation as his work as Tom Loftis would be this spring. Rhys made Emmy history by becoming the first actor in thirty years to be nominated as Best Actor in Comedy and Limited Series and there are few actors I think deserve the privilege more. Con: The Emmys have never given any performer an Emmy for acting in two categories during the same year. While Rhys absolutely deserves to become the first to do so, I truly think the Emmys will spread the love just a little considering he's a lock to win Best Actor in a Comedy.

 

My Prediction: While I admit it’s a somewhat underwhelming group Isaac will likely end up rising to the top for his first Emmy.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie. And this year TV Movie is very central to who might win.

 

 

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