Wednesday, August 27, 2025

Why I Won't Be Signing Any More Petitions From Move On

 

When I was younger and the internet was still not what it was, I signed a lot of petitions for various progressive organizations.

I did this in a lout during W's Presidency, kept doing through Obama's and did quite a bit during Trump's first term. I'm sure I signed things about being against the War on Terror and Iraq, holding Wall Street accountable, universal health, gun control and endless support for Democratic candidates. I only occasionally donated money (which is of course what they really wanted) but I was always willing to offer support.

I don't remember when exactly I stopped doing so but I think it happened early in Joe Biden's presidency. I was becoming fundamentally cynical about what it what meant to be considered progressive, I didn't like the tone of many of the newsletters such as Daily Kos and I wasn't wild about the way so many of them were increasingly arguing that not acting was akin to allying with the enemy. Most of all, I was becoming aware of what has become termed as performative activism, which has basically become all that the left does these days.

I understand the logic of wanting to do something or at least to feel like your doing something. At some point I have to have realized that all the petitions I was signing about Wall Street or climate change were pointless without bipartisan support but I kept doing because I understood the need. And that's the danger of so many of these sites. The left's desire to that they must always be socially active combined with a generation being raised on the instant gratification of the internet has almost certainly bred an entire generation that can't understand why political change can't happen as simply as downloading an app. This is dangerous enough thinking on its own; when political organizations – particularly progressive ones – feed it,  I'm terrified the cognitive dissonance between this will be increasingly hard for any party to overcome.

Let me take an example of an email I received recently that was typical.. Earlier today Senator Mike Lee of Utah made a post online that was incredibly derogatory and offensive about the shootings that took place in Minnesota this past Saturday. To be clear upfront, it was disgraceful – though sadly given the tenor of our times from today's Republican Party, hardly abnormal.

Here's the heading: "He joked about a political assassination. He's not fit for office. He should resign." To be clear I agree that the first statement is despicable, completely with Mike Lee's fitness for political office and that he should resign. However I also know that Lee has been in the Senate since 2010 (he was one of the original members of the Tea Party) has done far worse things during his career in politics and will never be shamed into leaving office. And frankly the idea that if we get enough personal outrage from progressives or anybody that Mike Lee will say: "Good Lord. What have I done?" and immediately resign from office is so ludicrous an idea that I doubt even the most deluded leftist thinks it will happen.

To be clear he is a jerk of epic proportions as the article says. Now let's look at the rest of the email:

"We can't normalize this behavior, just because Trump has made us used to jerks."

First of all this behavior was the norm long before Trump came into office and the reason I know this it's because I've been receiving emails like this from groups like this. And we were used to jerks long before that in public life.

"Lee is a Senator, and this behavior should not be tolerated. He needs to go now."

Now I agree his behavior shouldn't be tolerated and that he does need to go now. But signing a petition demanding he resign will not do that, and honestly I suspect if he heard there was a petition signed by thousands of people from a left-leaning site, Lee would turn it around and use it as a fundraiser for his reelection.

After that we find a link, saying "Demand Lee resign or be kicked out."

This position currently has 7827 supporters right now, and they're aiming for 8000 which they will no doubt get. I'm not going to be one of them, even though I agree with the statement. By the way, when you get to the link you see the original petition, except where they said 'jerk' in the public email, they say 'asshole' in the private site.

Now I'm not saying I don't agree with the latter sentiment but that's not the point. They are arguing that Lee's behavior is despicable and should not be tolerated but apparently its fine to call a sitting senator an asshole and demand he be resign because of that crime. I'm pretty sure if that was the standard they used for behavior, no elected official could meet it – or for that matter, no progressive.

The thing is, I do agree that Mike Lee should go and there is a method to get rid of him. It's called an election. Lee is up for reelection in three years' time which would seem to be more than sufficient time to groom a sufficient Democrat who might have a chance of beating such a toxic personality. And indeed if the Democratic party were to field such a candidate I would not only sign a petition endorsing them but I would donate money.

But while the left will gladly devote an immense amount of time and energy to protesting and shame rich white men in Hollywood and business in order to hold them accountable, they are not willing to do the same for those in political office. (They're also not very good when it comes to punishing those in Hollywood and business, but one issue at a time.) The irony is there is no more effective way to cancel someone then to defeat them for public office.

So why didn't I see any fundraising sites or a link to the DNC when I clicked that link? Several reasons. First Lee's not due to run for reelection in three years and the left is mad now. Second, and more importantly, Lee represents Utah which is a deep red state where progressives have famously had no luck running for elected office. Democrats have had some, but not progressives. And as has become increasingly clear if the left can't have the latter they'd just as soon not have the former.

Now it is possible that in the days and weeks to come I will receive a link from another major progressive organization using Mike Lee as a reason why we have to donate money to Democrats in 2026. I might sign on for something like that later on, but I know whatever money I were to send, it wouldn't go to beat Lee – and not just because he's not up for reelection next year. No I know by having spent far too much time in left leaning websites that they consider states like Utah which are deep red as utterly beyond salvation with not a single citizen deserving of being saved by them. As far as they're concerned Utah made its bed a long time ago and they deserve Senators like Mike Lee. The email I saw, I will repeat, stated "The country didn't deserve Mike Lee", not Utah. That's a major distinction and it's one that progressives in particular frequently make.

And that's why I'm pretty sure, even though the left hates Mike Lee nearly as much as the Democrats do, they kind of like that he's still in the Senate, the same way that while they abhor Marjorie Taylor Greene I'm not convinced they really try that hard to remove her from the House. I think both of them are disgraces as elected representatives and I want both of them out of Congress. I'm not sure at this point the left does. If they did, they would be devoting all their time and energy to allying with the Democratic party across the country to try and find the best candidates to defeat them. The fact that as we speak David Hogg is currently trying to fundraise to primary Democratic elected officials says that they want more left-leaning Democrats in Congress, even if that means unfit Republicans stay there.

That's why this comes from a left-leaning organization rather than the DNC as well as why the two are conflict. The Democrats are in something of a divide between the centrist wing that wants to win elected office and govern like adults and the progressive wing that wants to appear like its doing something rather than actually doing something. An email like this is right up their ally because it fits in with their whole approach: you feel like your doing something when you're doing the political equivalent of pushing the walk button on a crosswalk. It momentarily makes you feel better but nothing changes.

To be clear I think Mike Lee is the worst possible example of a Senator, though heavens know there are terrible ones on either side of the aisle. But I know that signing a petition demanding he resign because he's a jerk isn't going to do anything but make me feel better for a few seconds. If I actually want Mike Lee out of the Senate – and trust me, I do – I'm going to do what I can to help the Democratic party improve its prospect across the country, starting with this election cycle and then hopefully in three years we have a chance. It's the long game and there's no guarantee of success, but it's better than calling him names and hoping he sees reason. That doesn't work in the real world and certainly not in Washington.

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama

 

This one there is no suspense over. Ever since January one actress has been absolutely dominating the award season and there is absolutely nothing that is likely to stand in her way. While I acknowledge my favorite in this category prior to the nominations has somehow been excluded, even I admit she would have had no chance against the front-runner. It doesn't make this group of contenders any less formidable but it's hard to argue that there isn't a deserving winner.

 

Kathy Bates, Matlock. EXPERTS PICK, MY PICK. For Playing: Madeline Matlock, a seventy five year old associate working with a mission to bring the truth to light at a New York City law firm. Pro: Ever since she surprised even herself with an upset win at the Critics Choice Awards this January Bates has been winning every Best Actress in a Drama award in the book, from the Astras to the African-American TV Awards. And no one who's watched Bates work on this show can argue that this is an extraordinary performance from one of the greatest actresses in film or television. First this is a performance on every level: Bates is doing a division of work life and home so radical it makes the performance in Severance looked unsubtle. Second, this is a reboot which is more self-aware then most. Usually these kinds of shows are seen as derivative but the entire show with Bates at its head is completely different – and superior in many ways – to the original. And third, it's a network drama. One that has breathed life into the format in the same way that Abbott Elementary has done to the network comedy. Throw in the fact that this may be one of Bates's last professional roles and she deserves the prize. Con: Bates's nomination is the only one Matlock received this year. That's the Emmys flaw more than hers – this show absolutely deserved to be nominated for Best Drama as well the other actors -  but the fact remains it's very difficult for an actor to win if the show their nominated for has no other nominations. The last one was Tatiana Maslany for Orphan Black in 2016.

 

Sharon Horgan, Bad Sisters. For Playing: Eva Garvey, the oldest sister of the Garvey clan dealing with the possibility of another death and exposure for her family. Pro: Like Bella Ramsey and Keri Russell, Horgan managed to earn her second nomination for the second year of her show. And unlike the majority of the performers in Drama altogether Horgan has more to do with the success of Bad Sisters then most actors in TV dramas. In her work as Eva, the eldest sister of the Garvey clan who yet again find themselves at the center of a criminal investigation Horgan gets to show the range we've seen her capable of for nearly fifteen years but until now she's never been recognized for as a performer. Even when you found yourself doubting the believability that the siblings were involved in something this complicated, Horgan's natural power was capable of leading you through the hard points. Like the character she plays, Horgan is a tower of strength. Con: She was also, without question, the actress who's nomination not just in this category but all of the dramatic nominations combined that made most people (myself included) do a double take. There were many more qualified nominees ahead of Horgan for this last spot, not just Melanie Lynskey but Elizabeth Moss for the final season of The Handmaid's Tale or Kaitlin Olson for High Potential. In fact Horgan didn't get a nomination from any of the previous critics groups all year. Throw in the fact that Horgan is the only nominee for her show and she has no realistic chance of even finishing in the money.

 

Britt Lower, Severance. For Playing: Hetty R, living a double life working for Lumen and the daughter of the head of the company. Pro: Lower is given the best chance of any of the nominees in this category for being capable of an upset. And it's hard not to deny the logic. For one thing, like every other cast member of Severance, she's given two different performances – and when we learn the truth about she ended up working at Lumen, it's deeper than that. There's also the fact that she's part of a love triangle (trying to figure out traditional roles is incredibly difficult here) that involves the two sides of every character in a way that hurts the most emotionally. And when you consider the sacrifice that is made at the end of Season 2 that kicks us in the teeth the most, it has all the emotional power of so many veteran actors. Lower deserves to win. Con: But likely not this year. Last time out Lower was one of the few regulars not nominated by the Emmys. I suspect that this nomination is redress but I suspect she will win another season (whenever they happen).

 

Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us. For Playing: Ellie, dealing with her past after the murder of her surrogate father sends her on a quest for revenge to Seattle. Pro: Honestly Ramsey deserves it just for all the abuse they've been forced to endure for the last two years by the misogynistic fanbase of the original game. I'm also in Ramsey's favor because even though they identify as non-binary, they've made it very clear that they're fine being nominated in this category because "I respect women." And that's before I get to  Ramsey's performance, which on every level was magnificent. As we saw Ellie struggle with the awkwardness of her relationship with Joel in the early episodes, saw her witness him being killed in front of her eyes, go on a blind quest for vengeance with Dina, saw the love story erupt in the aftermath of the apocalypse, saw through a story of birthdays how Joel and Ellie's relationship changed, and then in the season finale saw how broken she truly was, Ramsey demonstrated why they are a performer for the ages. Ramsey will win in this category someday. Con: The Emmys have never been guided by the backlash on the internet when it comes to bigotry, and that's going to be true this year as well as anything else. But Ramsey is by far the youngest nominee in this category. They will have to wait their turn.

 

Keri Russell, The Diplomat. For Playing: Kate Wyler, ambassador to London dealing with the likelihood the Prime Minister is behind a terrorist plot. Pro: Russell is the only repeat nominee in this category from last year and remains the force of nature she's been since she exploded on to the scene way back in Felicity. Here she plays an utterly brilliant professional trying to deal with problems on multiple fronts: her husband barely surviving a car bomb, the fact that her government is conspiring with Britain on a terrorist plot, learning the vice president – who's job she's been being groomed for since the start of the series – is behind it, only moments before she becomes President herself. She does so with a kind of brusque humor and bluntness that is built towards service, rare on TV these days. And considering that she hasn't won an Emmy despite starring in three underrated classics – this one, Felicity and The Americans – she is more than overdue a win. Con: Just like Gary Oldman with Slow Horses Russell is starring in a quietly undervalued show and that's almost certainly not the thing that Emmy voters pay attention to. She might win later on, but not this year.

 

My Prediction: I hope the orchestra at the Emmys remember which version of the Matlock theme music to play when Bates wins.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama, the only nomination in this category that the Experts are not sure about and that they might have reason to be.

Tuesday, August 26, 2025

There Hasn't Been A Difference Between The American League and The National League For A Very, Very Long Time

 

Earlier this month that was a collective scream heard across the country. While at first it seemed like every grandfather in the world simultaneously broke their hips, it was actually something far worse: every baseball commentator in the world was reacting to Commissioner Rob Manfred's announcement that he was planning realignment for Major League Baseball.

As any true fan of the game knows this portent was written as one of the signs of the apocalypse in the Book of Topps, the final sign which will lead to a cataclysmic chain of events that will cause Abner Doubleday's parents to never meet, which in turn will lead to him never inventing the game at Cooperstown, therefore causing the entire sport of baseball to vanish from the space-time continuum.

The first two paragraphs are purely satirical. What is meant to be taking more seriously, certainly by fans, is a New York Post columnist argument that Manfred's decision spit in the face of the fan-base of baseball: 55-64 year olds. This confirmed something I have long suspected about far too baseball fans: they would prefer that the last game of baseball ever played be done while all of them are watching, with all of them dying after the last out is recorded – rather than have one element change and lead the possibility of new fans coming to it. That this columnist reals thinks this is persuasive argument not to change the game couldn't do more to represent the generational problem that Manfred is trying to solve and the obstacles that he will face.

None of this is new of course. When it comes to any change in baseball, the purists are like that old Republican voter: they've been against every single one. Night baseball, radio, integration, expansion, the designated hitter, free agency, all of them will irrevocably destroy the game as we know it. One is reminded of certain end-of-days cultists who when the apocalypse doesn't happen say they'd made a miscalculation in the prophetic writings and it will actually happen next year.

In this case what they claim to be angriest about is that this will eradicate the National League and the American League, two institutions that have existed before the automobile and as you might expect have far more symbolic value to purists then any real value they might have had. There are many reasons why all of this arguing about something that has had less real meaning in baseball for decades before this argument took place (I'll get to that) but I'd like to point out that there are several reason this whole argument was pointless to begin with.

First of all these two leagues have existed separate but equal (which was the law of the land in many other ways in the bad old days) since 1903. That was of course back when there were only eight teams in each league. And the major reason there was a difference was because each league represented five cities: Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia, New York and St. Louis.

A three-man commission was set to rule baseball. Both leagues were supposed to share authority equally but Ban Johnson, President of the American League, was the one with all the real power. This changed in 1919 with the coming of the Black Sox Scandal which led to the establishing of the office of Commissioner. Kenesaw Mountain Landis ruled the game like an absolute czar and while both leagues would continue to have Presidents running them, from that point forward the Commissioner was the sole authority over the sport, which is true to this day. In the eyes of the commissioner, the job of president of the league wasn't worth a pitcher of warm spit.

The more important change between the two leagues came in the 1950s. With the rise of television, the interstate highway and air travel, more Americans were migrating west. As a result attendance for all teams dropped drastically and most cities could no longer afford two major league teams. In 1952 the Braves left Boston for Milwaukee, in 1953 the Browns left St. Louis for Baltimore and Connie Mack's A's eventually left Philadelphia for Kansas City. It's hard to imagine that any of these cities were upset that they were getting a National League team instead of an American League one or vice versa. Certainly when the Braves went to Atlanta and Milwaukee got the Brewers four years afterwards, no citizen said: "But we wanted a National League team."

More importantly when expansion filled in the gaps, it was only New York that got a replacement. Even that was more likely due to the fact that they had lost two teams rather than one. No Browns fans or Athletics fans ever demanded another A.L. counterpart to make up for the one they lost.

By that point I'd argue there was no real difference between an American League team and a National League team and certainly future expansion has does nothing to highlight that. There may be a National League and American League team in Florida but considering no one goes to either team's home game its hard to say there's any league pride to speak of there. And it's not like people were up in arms when the Astros and the Brewers changed leagues: the teams still existed so the fans didn't care that much. Only the purists did.

And this brings me to the final reason that irrevocably made sure that there was no difference between the two leagues: free agency. There had apparently been a gentleman's agreement during much of the 20th century against trading players between leagues, mainly because one league would want to give the other the player that led to winning the World Series. This was really never a hard and fast rules and certainly the Yankees during the era of George Weiss never much followed it: they had a tendency of picking up old National league players at the end of their careers, from Johnny Mize to Dale Long, to help them with pennant stretches. By the 1970s that rule was basically gone as players such as Frank Robinson, Dick Allen and Nolan Ryan were traded between both leagues for multiple players.

This was officially cast away for good when free agency eliminated this last element. Baseball players were free to go to the highest bidder and they held no more loyalty to their leagues then their teams. One of the first free agents was Don Gullett, who left the Cincinnati Reds to be signed by the Yankees in 1977.

So it's pretty clear that there hasn't been a dime's worth of difference between the two leagues for a very long time and that's before you throw in that as part of his consolidation of power Bud Selig chose to eliminate the presidencies of both leagues by 2000. As much as purists ( again that horrible word) will argue Selig destroyed the game with interleague play, realigning the divisions and making the DH part of both leagues, all he was doing was saying the quiet part out loud. Baseball is one sport and the two leagues only exist for purposes of the World Series.

And that's no different from the championship of any other sport. Does anyone really know what the difference between the AFC and the NFC, the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference, the Eastern Division or Western division of all the other sports? For the record teams played their rivals in other divisions over the years in all of these sports and no one ever seems to argue that whenever the Islanders play the Rangers or the Knicks play the Lakers that it's unnatural? So why is there such outrage when the Yankees play the Giants?

 Now of course there was a period when the two leagues were different. It happened not long after Jackie Robinson played his first game for the Brooklyn Dodgers. Not long after that Bill Veeck signed Larry  Doby for the Cleveland Indians and integration began to slowly progress into the majors. Of course it wasn't fully integrated until 1959 when Pumpsie Green played for the Red Sox.

By 1960 nine of the last eleven Most Valuable Player Awards had gone to African-American players. Elston Howard became the first most valuable player for the American in 1963. After that the National League won seven consecutive All-Star Games and had a streak in which they'd won twelve out of fourteen. One such reason, as multiple historians have pointed out, was due the fact the American League, led by the ownership of the Yankees, had been far slower to integrate than the National League had been and by that point had the overwhelming majority of African-American superstars, including Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Ernie Banks, Willie McCovey and Bob Gibson. I guess that answers a question I was going to ask: "Was there ever a difference between a National League superstar and an American League one?" It's just not one those people who argue those two leagues are institutions that should never change really want to talk about that much, especially considering the problems the game is having with African-American players these days.

But even long before that in the nearly forty-five seasons the two leagues co-existed, as a scholar of the game I'll be damned if I can find a difference between the superstars of one league or the other. Ed Walsh of the White Sox and Three-Finger Brown of the Cubs when they dominated their pitching to have the lowest earned run averages of their respective leagues. Rogers Hornsby hit .400 twice for the Cardinals, George Sisler did twice for the Browns. Jimmie Foxx and Chuck Klein each won the triple crown for the Philadelphia teams in either league. The only people who seem to really care the most nitpicking of historians: in major league baseball they all rank among the greats. Is there some kind of tally I know being kept of which league has the most Hall of Famers in it somewhere? And wasn't that rendered mute when the Negro Leaguers staring coming in the 1960s?

To be clear realignment is one of those discussions that has been the mission of commissioners and league presidents since at least the 1970s and it takes a lot more than it being suggested for it to become a reality. Manfred may have a plan but so have such names as Bowie Kuhn and Bill White and it went nowhere. There are many steps and obstacles to come and it's not like if the commissioner just says something, it will happen. Even Manfred admits there will have to be new expansion teams added just for it to become possible and he has even worked out where those two teams will be. And as is almost always the case the owners hate change as much, if not more, then the media and their aging fan base do. I'm taking the wait-and-see approach.

I'm not sure what I do think about the idea of realignment. It may be a totally destructive idea or it might help revitalize the game. What I do know is that if the only argument is that it tears down two establishments that have existed since before the twentieth century that's not the best argument against it. If anything, it's one of the biggest reasons for it, if for no other reason that it has the oldest established fan base of any sport clutching their pearls in agony.

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actor in A Drama

 

In the first decade of this century three actors – James Gandolfini, James Spader and Bryan Cranston – won eight of the ten Best Actor Emmys of the decade. Few things can argue about how much the Emmys has changed since then when you consider ever since 2011 not only has no one won back-to-back Emmys but fourteen different actors have all won in this category.

The former trend will continue regardless of who wins this years and there's an excellent chance that the latter will too. What hasn't changed is the immense caliber of the talent in this category. Even with only five nominees present this year this arguably the greatest display of collective talent in any acting category. The five nominees are among the greatest actors working in television today and all of them have worked for decades as the greatest actors in the medium, save for one who's just one of the greatest actors of all time period. All of them are more than deserving winners and I would be absolutely fine with any of them winning. With that said, there is a clear frontrunner and I suspect he will prevail. With that in mind let's look at the talent on display.

 

Sterling K. Brown, Paradise. For Playing: Xavier Collins, a former Secret Service agent trying to figure out who killed the former President of the United States after the end of the world. Pro: In less than ten years Brown has managed to tie the record set by Andre Braugher for most Emmy nominations by an African-American actor. He's been one of the most versatile actors in TV to this point, though there has been a common thread in all of his roles: from Christopher Darden to Randall Pierson to the band manager in Marvelous Mrs. Maisel he has the knack for playing character with an intense sense of justice and morality that is almost unheard of in the era of Peak TV. And in Xavier Collins, all of the force of those strengths are shown on full display: the family man, the loyal friend, the man with an intense sight of right and wrong, the one who is willing to tear down the world even after the world has ended to let the truth see light. There is never a moment when Brown is not believable no matter how bizarre things get and he is as much a beacon as anything. His victory at the African-American TV awards shows how solid his work will always be and he will prevail in this category. Con: Brown is the only previous winner in this category with two Emmys already to his credit. While he could (sort of) break the streak I talked about above, I really doubt that's going to happen at least this year.

Gary Oldman, Slow Horses. For Playing: Jackson Lamb, confronting a threat to London that has its origin in his past. Pro: The only repeat nominee from last year, Oldman continues to have the most fun of all the nominees in this category as we see Jackson Lamb deal with his past in all the worst ways when he must confront the man he believes destroyed his moral compass knows the truth about what's going on in London and his grandson and is hiding behind his dementia. Besides that Oldman cheerfully relishes playing a man who is slovenly, proudly drinks and smokes too much, doesn't care about breaking wind or breaking rules, and seems exasperated every time he has to save his agents or the country. Every minute Oldman is on screen is an utter delight and he deserves to win someday. Con: It's just not going to be today. There's honestly just too much raw talent on display for Oldman's work to be acknowledged. But hey, Slow Horses has been renewed for another three seasons. He'll get more chances.

Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us. For Playing: Joel Miller, who finds out that some things are just wrong, even after civilization collapses to zombies. Pro: Of all the actors in this category Pascal has no chance of returning for this show, considering that his character died in what was the most shocking death considering that it was canon. His role is also by far the most limited of his nominees: as Pascal only appeared in three of Season 2's seven episodes. But it's not like he didn't give many opportunities for them to honor him. That long moment when he's asked by Catherine O'Hara what happened between him and Ellie where the camera holds on his face and he says: "I saved her" was one standout. The way that he seemed almost willing to meet his end at the hands of the Wolves was just as profound. And in the penultimate episode where we saw the saga of Joel and Ellie unfold through various birthdays, saw their relationship fracture and in the final minutes, saw him confess that he had sacrificed the world to save Ellie -ending with the line that showed the sins passed through generations – is by far some of the greatest acting I've seen all year. Con: Aside from the backlash about Season 2, Pascal has a bigger problem. Historically the Emmys don't give lead awards to roles this small. If he'd allowed himself to be nominated as Supporting Actor it might have worked (this did work for Elizabeth Debicki last year) but as we saw with Succession the voters chose Kieran Culkin over Brian Cox time after time. I don't think Pascal can overcome it.

Adam Scott, Severance. For Playing: Mark Scout, trying to figure out the reality of what's happening at Lumen with his work and home life divided. Pro: Adam Scott has been one of the most underrecognized actors in TV for over fifteen years, starring in such great shows as Party Down, Parks & Rec and Big Little Lies and never getting so much as a nomination from the Emmys. Now he's two for two this year (thanks Sal Saperstein!) and has been the early frontrunner for his now iconic dual role as Mark, who is trying to figure out not just all the horrors that are going on at Lumen but the role it played in the death of his wife – who the audience now knows never died at all. Mark went on the ride of a lifetime and at the end of Season 2 was confronted with choosing between his past and his present – and made a pick no one could have seen coming. Throw in the fact that, like every actor in this incredible show, he's basically playing two characters, and it's impossible not to see why he was the overwhelming favorite before the nominations came out. Things have changed for Scott; he hasn't won a single acting award, even at the Astras when this show managed to win Best Drama. His momentum may be snatched from him.

Noah Wyle, The Pitt. EXPERTS PICK, MY PICK For Playing: Dr. 'Robby' Rabinovich, the head of a Pittsburgh ER where the traumas keep piling on  the anniversary of his mentors death. Pro: Ever since he astounded us as Dr. Carter on ER thirty years ago, Wyle has been a constant on television looking boyish even twenty years later on so many TNT action series. Now, thirty years since he got his first Emmy nomination, Wyle is back in an overcrowded, underfunded emergency room where traumas never stop coming. But this is not Carter thirty years later. We see a man who is trying to fight against an onslaught of trauma, the horrible bureaucracy, so many staff and personal problems, all while not dealing with the fact that his mentor died in this hospital five years ago. We're not shocked when Robby breaks down halfway through a mass casualty, we're only amazed it hasn't happened before. Wyle has been winning nearly every award since June, from the Astras to the Dorians to the TCA award. It's looking like only another shocker could stop him from winning this year. Con: Wyle himself knows better than to get overconfident. He's been the favorite in Supporting Acting categories in his five nominations and always lost to veteran actors. It could just as easily happen here.

MY PREDICTION: There are no bad choices in this category but I think Wyle's finally going to get the Emmy he deserved for more than thirty years.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama. This is probably the least suspenseful award in drama this year, no question.

 

 

Monday, August 25, 2025

My Prediction for the 2025 Emmys: Outstanding Drama

 

When I gave my initial predictions for the nominees in this category I made it clear that I believed that this was the closest race in over a decade. And even though there appears to be an overwhelming frontrunner I'm not inclined to believe it will win the same way the rest of the awards community is.

As you'll see going forward there are still signs that the hundred-pound gorilla may have feet of clay and that the majority of the contenders all have arguments for them. Here are the nominees and who I'll predict.

Andor (Disney Plus) Pro: Famously this series has been described as 'Star Wars for people who never liked Star Wars'. Few terms have ever been more accurate and more complimentary. As the long awaited second season unfolded viewers saw in a way that we've never seen in half  a century just what it was like living under the Empire, the cost of rebellion and a world where no thinks of such things as light-sabers, Jedis and would laugh at the idea of some kind of mystical force. Led by a superb cast including Diego Luna in one of the most wrenching roles he's ever done, Tony Gilroy's vision makes it clear that we needed someone who didn't really like George Lucas's vision to tell the Star Wars story we've always needed. Who would have thought that it took someone who had no use for the trappings of droids or mystical royalty to make this dusty franchise relevant, powerful and riveting to watch in a way Star Wars hasn't been, well, since long, long ago. Con: This has never been the kind of IP that awards show of any kind like giving the grand prize to. We've seen it happen with The Mandalorian and quite a few other limited series. And set aside from that, there are far better shows in this category.

The Diplomat (Netflix) Pro: This is one of the more enjoyable political dramas on TV today, precisely because even when it looks at the larger global implications of the story it never stops to be either personal or humane. Following Kate Wyler as she realizes that there is a global plot for terrorism coming from 'inside the house', we watch her deal with the ramifications of a car bomb that nearly killed her husband to the realization that the Vice President who's job she's been quietly being groomed for the last two seasons was behind what happened – and has just become the leader of the free world. In her third straight master class of drama Keri Russell continues to demonstrate why she is one of the finest actresses working to date and she is led by a team of great performers, old and new. This show will be a force in this category for years to come. Con: Only the show and Russell were nominated by the Emmys this year and while it was nominated by every group in the book, it went home empty handed. The same is just as likely to happen here.

The Last of Us (HBO) Pro: After waiting two seasons we returned to the post-apocalyptic world of Joel and Ellie and found the horrible ramifications of what happened after the end of the first season. We were devastated by one of the most wrenching deaths in television history so far this decade, saw just how the ripple effects of trauma break people again and again, saw a vision of revenge, a story of love, a flashback to Joel and Ellie's life in Colorado and all of the devastation that unfolded as a result. And the second season ended mirroring the first, showing how Ellie's devastation caused collateral damage that killed so many more innocent lives and may not hold her own in the balance. Combined with the kind of awesome battle sequences this side of Game of Thrones and you have the rare sequel that outperforms the original. Con: You might be slightly aware of the backlash that has come from the fanboy community in the aftermath of Season 2 as they have attempted to review bomb into oblivion which dared to cast it leads based on the best performances rather than how they resembled the pixelated version. The Emmys doesn't usually pay attention to things like that. The bigger problem was that while the critical response to Season 2 was incredibly favorable, it was not the kind of raves that they showed Season 1. That and considering the prevalence of so many genre shows in this category is likely to divide the vote.

Paradise (Hulu) PERSONAL PICK. Pro: Many were stunned when this Hulu series was nominated for Best Drama instead of the second season of Squid Game. I wasn't. While not nearly as humane as the last collaboration between Sterling K. Brown and Dan Fogler, Paradise managed to put together the most intriguing post-apocalyptic scenario I've seen on TV in a while and in a way the most realistic. Set up as investigating the murder of the former President of the United States, Paradise peeled back to reveal what might really happen if we knew that the world was going to end and the very real costs of what it meant to those who survived. Far more a character piece than any of the shows I've seen that dealt with the subject, the penultimate episode may have shown, by reducing it to its most human level, what the end of the world would like and in the season finale just what the cost of this new world had really been just for its existence. In a different world this would be one of the overwhelming favorites to win and in every category. Con: I'm glad the show got the four Emmy nominations it did  but I'm as much a realist as the characters in Paradise when it comes to its chances. There are shows that have a chance to upset the biggest favorite in this category but Paradise doesn't have enough nominations to manage it.

The Pitt (HBO Max) Pro: There hasn't been a show like The Pitt on any service in a very long time. I'm not just talking about the fact that it unfolds in real time, something no show has done since 24 or the fact that it is longer than the majority of series that have been winning in this category for even longer: fifteen episodes as opposed to thirteen or ten. No, I'm talking about the fact that for the first time in a long time that isn't about horrible wealthy people doing horrible things or uses a sci-fi trope to tell the stories about today. The Pitt is a show that tells us in all the horrendous ugliness about just how screwed up our medical system is, not only to the patients stuck in overcrowded waiting rooms or the horrible bureaucracy but to the men and women who work it. This is a show about mental health and how today's world erodes it at every level, and we see every person in The Pitt dealing with it in the worst way possible on a day that probably isn't even that bad for them. (And this is, I'm aware, a series that has a mass casualty effect take place in the final hours.) Led by the incredible Noah Wyle we see a cast trying to move from trauma to trauma, somehow keep their sanity – and honestly not doing that great a job. When it swept the Television Critics Associations Awards this past week, it recognized something that we haven't seen on TV: working class Americans trying to keep up with a board that is never empty, patients they can't move and a system irrevocably broken. The most likely candidate to upset. Con: It's arguably the best freshman series in this group but can it get past the overwhelming favorite?

Severance (Apple TV) (EXPERTS PICK) Pro: It's been three years since Ben Stiller shocked the world with the first season of his incredible drama about how one finds work/life balance is the most frightening way possible. When he and his writers finally came back this January, everyone wondered if this would be another time a series suffered the sophomore slump. It absolutely didn't. As we followed one of the greatest casts assembled from the start and watched as they tried to bring down Lumen before the Cold Harbor project unfolded, we learned the profoundly sad and distressing backstories of so many of the characters, saw them face problems that led them to commit the most painful and saddest of acts, and saw things just get weirder and weirder. (Gwendoline Christie with goats actually made sense.) The show saw the characters face their past and that have to deal with losing it while retaining its utter weirdness. The 27 nominations were the most nominations any series got this past year and its wins for Outstanding Drama series at the Astras would seem to cement it as frontrunner status. Con: The operative word is 'seems'. It lost Best Drama to The Pitt at both the Dorians and the TCA and by and large it has been ignored in awards for acting in all of the major categories, with few experts expecting it to get a single win. And it's never clear how well it can do in the technical awards against so many other genre shows (that played out during the 2022 Emmys). Could the momentum for the show be starting to crater?

Slow Horses (Apple TV) Pro: The only eligible nominee from last season, some wondered if the show had a chance to return to the fray. They wondered this even as Season 4 was nominated by the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards and all those other guilds. Those of us who watched it, of course, had no doubts. As Jackson Lamb finds himself trying to deal with both a terrorist plot and a face he never wanted to see again, as River Cartwright came to reckon with his past, we the viewer got as always the immense pleasure of watching one of the best shows of the decade unfold. Yet again the outcasts had to band together to save London from a horrible threat, yet again Lady Diana found herself in over her head, and yet again we got a chance to witness some of the greatest British actors of all time having the most fun in their careers. We'll be seeing them in these categories for a while. Con: See above. We all know that if there's a show from Apple TV that's going to win here, it's for the employees at Lumen rather than the ones at Slough House.

The White Lotus (HBO) Pro: First of all, no one who watched Season 3 can argue that Mike White's series doesn't qualify as a drama this year. Second of all, I could make the argument that Season 3 is by far the best season yet of Mike White's incredible anthology. Karma was very much the theme of Season 3 and from the start the entire roster of guests seemed to be dealing with darker issues than White's been willing to explore. From Rick's struggles with facing his past, the Ratliff's spending their week unplugged, all but the pater familias aware of what was facing them at home – and medicating himself and planning suicide as an alternative, to the 'blonde blobs' trying to face whether their friendship had anything in common after twenty years, to the two holdovers from Season 1 facing their pasts and very much learning from it – though not always in the best way. Led yet again by a super ensemble case, this show deservedly took Best Ensemble in a Cable Drama at the Astras and received 23 Emmy nominations, second of all series in this category. It could pull off an upset. And it does have a great track record at award shows. Con: There's really nothing working against The White Lotus this year – there's just the feeling that other shows will prevail.

 

My Prediction: I think momentum is building for The Pitt but I'm not sure that will be enough to keep Severance from triumphing. We might know for sure after the Creative Arts Awards.

 

Tomorrow I'll deal with Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama with five incredible contenders that are going to be a nightmare for the Emmys to choose a winner.

Sunday, August 24, 2025

Masachusetts & South Carolina and the Sectional Divide, Part 10: The Election of 1860

 

History is full of ironies and that is frequently true when it comes to American elections.

In 1852 the Democratic Party had won a sweeping electoral landslide that has served as the death knell for the Whig Party, in large because the latter party had fallen victim to sectional divides based on the issues of slavery. Now just eight years later, the Democratic Party was on the verge of a similar sectional fracture only the stakes were far higher for the party and the nation.

One of the major reasons for the Democratic Party's fracture had been because of Stephen Douglas and his own desire to be President. His own career was full of ironies. He had helped salvage the Compromise of 1850 which had seemed to finally put the bed question of slavery. Then just four years later, in large part due to his own ambitions he had introduced the question of popular sovereignty into the national dialogue which had reignited the embers of the debate and assured that they had never fully gone away ever since. His decision to make himself the strong man of the party had undercut the Presidency of Franklin Pierce and he had proven himself the biggest adversary to the new President James Buchanan in so much of the Congressional battles that had taken up the last four years. And in running for reelection for the Senate he had exposed the flaws in his political theory in a way to permanently making himself unacceptable to the South as a Presidential candidate.

By the time 1860 began much of the South was openly hoping for secession. In direct response to John Brown's raid Mississippi Senator Jefferson Davis introduced a series of resolutions to protect slavery in all U.S. territory. In one he stated that neither Congress nor the legislatures of any territories 'possessed the power to annul or impair the constitutional right of any citizen…to take his slave into the common territories." He didn't ask for a floor debate, instead placing them before the Senate Democratic caucus. He had no intention of putting it before the Senate floor for the vote, the sole purpose was to get the language into the Democratic platform and crush any hope Douglas might have for popular sovereignty. Under the strategy of Alabama's Bill Yancey (coached by that old secessionist Barnwell Rhett) Alabama's Democratic leaders to demand this language in the platform and failing that bolt the convention. The goal was simple: tear the party asunder causing a Democratic defeat and a likely southern rebellion.

Rhett could see on the horizon the Southern independence he spent a decade hoping for but the course of events had increasingly put South Carolina – and much of the rest of the South on his side. He was hoping events at the upcoming convention, which was to be held in Charleston that April, would prove conclusive.

Buchanan had declined to run for reelection, making Douglas the frontrunner for the nomination. But with both the South opposed to him and the necessity for a two-thirds majority of the delegates to win the nomination, things looked grim. Other men wanted it, including Buchanan's own Vice President John C. Breckinridge but Douglas was the overwhelming contender.

The problems began well before that with the issue of the platform. Douglas was in a bind. If he made the slave code part of the platform, he was told by an Ohio representative that both Ohio and seven other Northwestern states would retire from the convention. If the slave code was spurned, however, seven southern delegations made it clear they would bolt. And it was clear that Alabama and its brethren had no intention of compromising.

The fact the convention took place in Charleston was not lost on most Americans. It was by far the most aristocratic city in the South, and therefore the most determined not to see change its 'peculiar institution'. Some northern delegates would visit the plantations for themselves and would come away with the opinion "the yoke is rather light in these parts" with the slaves 'appearing to be happy and well-contended." It goes without saying the slave masters did everything to put the best possible face on the treatment of the slaves and it likely would not have made a difference with the Democrats in the north. They wanted to modulate the issue in order to prevent the rupture of their party and the disaster they foresaw it might bring. That many of the fire-eaters wanted that very disaster was another reality they chose to blind themselves too.

303 delegates were present when the convention was gaveled into session. 202 votes would be needed to nominate a President, while 152 would be needed for any other decisions. The early votes in procedural demonstrated Douglas and his delegates had the majority support but lacked the 2/3 for most things. By this point some Douglas men were acting thinking that if the ultra-southern delegates left it might be a blessing. If only 30 or 40 men walked out, Douglas might be able to get the required two-thirds.

On April 27th the first test came from the platform committee. A majority report, prepared by two southerners, essentially echoed Jefferson Davis's slave code language as part of the platform. The minority report, by contrast, skirted the issue declaring property rights in states and territories best left to the Supreme Court, essentially arguing the Dred Scott decision had resolved.

The debate for the majority was led by William Yancey. For ninety minutes he delighted his followers castigating his Northern brethren for refusing to defend Southern rights under the principle the constitutions are made 'solely for the protection of the minorities in government." He denied, with a straight face, that he and his colleagues were not 'disunionists, per se" but merely patriotic Americans seeking to redress long-standing grievances."

"Ours is the property invaded; ours are the institutions which are at stake; ours is the peace that is to be destroyed…ours is the honor at stake. Slave code approval was the only basis upon which Alabama can associate with the Democratic Party."

The electrifying eloquence of Yancey was met and surpassed by Ohio Senator George Pugh. He delivered a complete rebuttal that scored southern Democrats for undermining their party in the North with incessant and increasingly outlandish demands and then taunting the northern party for losing political influence as a result of doing so. Now the South was demanded that Northern Democrats 'prostrate themselves with their mouths in the dust. Gentlemen of the South," he famously said. "you mistake us – you mistake us. We will not do it." If the South's party loyalty required this debasement, then the southern dissidents might as well leave.

Despite an adjournment to stop the convention from descending into complete chaos, the following day the minority report passed by a bare majority of the delegates: 165-138. All but 11 of the votes in favor of it came from free states. Immediately afterwards the Southern delegates walked out, led first by Alabama, followed by Mississippi, Louisiana, all but two of South Carolina's delegates, Florida, Texas, some of Arkansas' and a third of Delaware's.

With 50 delegates gone, the Douglas men hoped the walkout wouldn't spread and therefore would enhance their man's chance of getting the nomination. But Chairman Caleb Cushing, while from Massachusetts but with no admiration for Douglas delivered a blow. Rather than allowing 169 delegates to give the nomination (two-thirds of the 253 remaining) he made it clear it would still take 202 delegates. This excluded the possibility of Douglas – or indeed any candidate – from getting the nomination.

Three days and an unprecedented 57 ballots achieved nothing. After ten days the convention adjourned with the stipulation that they would reconvene in Baltimore on June 18th to resume the selection process. By that point it was clear that any nomination Douglas received would be worthless. On the day of the walkout the Southerners planned to have a meeting on June 11th where they would establish a new Democratic Party.

They would wait until after the official party met in Baltimore to select a candidate/ The delegates confronted the question of whether to seat those who had walked out in Charleston or replacement figures chosen by party officials in several states. Again they were forced into a corner. If they sat the walkout men, Douglas's candidacy would be destroyed. If they sat replacements, the party would be. Cushing ducked the controversy by sending it to the credentials committee. After three days struggle, they crafted two separate reports.

The majority report favored seating the replacement delegates from Alabama and Louisiana as well as half of those from Georgia and 2 from Alabama. The convention embraced it. But after that Cushing recognized Virginia delegate Charles Russell, who announced that the majority of his delegation was walking out. So did the majority of the North Carolina delegation and half of Maryland's.

Douglas received the nomination he had hoped for all his life but he knew was the nominee of a shell of the party he had served. His nomination of Herschel Johnson of Georgia as Vice President was meaningless considering the fact that the anti-Douglas faction, held there own gathering in Baltimore. Cushing resigned the presidency of his party and then led the Southern Democrats.

The Southern Democrats (as they would be known in the historical archives) would fully embrace the slave code advocacy and call for the acquisition of Cuba, where they hoped to expand slavery. They would nominate the incumbent Vice President John C. Breckinridge of Virginia as their presidential candidate and Joseph Lane of Oregon (still only a territory) as Vice President. Buchanan would endorse Breckinridge for President as would his predecessor Franklin Pierce.

Many Democrats expected as Charleston dissolved into chaos 'the next President will be named in Chicago." That was where starting May 16th the Republicans would hold their nominated convention.

Going into that convention the overwhelming front-runner seemed to be William Seward. There had been many prominent Republicans leading up to the convention – Salmon P. Chase and Ben Wade of Ohio, Simon Cameron of Pennsylvania, Nathaniel Banks of Massachusetts – but their attempts to build support had fizzled. That left only a single contender – Abraham Lincoln.

The previous February he had given his famous Cooper Union speech in which he made it clear about how slavery was morally wrong. "The whole atmosphere must be disinfected from all taint an opposition to slavery before they cease to believe all their troubles proceed from us. Their thinking it right and our thinking it wrong is the precise fact upon which depends the whole controversy."

This speech caused an immediate stir and was published in four New York City newspapers. Editors William Cullen Bryant and Horace Greeley had wanted to get Lincoln to the city as part of a stop-Seward movement. They were part of a  Republican contingent who were skeptical of the New Yorker's chances of carrying Illinois, Pennsylvania, Indiana and New Jersey. Fremont's failure to carry those four states four years earlier had ensured Buchanan's victory and they did not want to make the same mistake this time. Indeed going into the convention gubernatorial candidates in Indiana and Pennsylvania warned party leaders that if Seward was at the top of the ticket, their campaigns would be hopeless.

Seward's problem was his blunt-toned rhetoric and his embrace of 'higher law' had stamped him as a bit of radical. He was also a scourge of the Know-Nothing movement, which while it was no longer a political party still faced lingering hostility. Lincoln's relative obscurity and his decision to seek the middle ground, made him seem like a moderate. It helped matters immensely that the convention was to take place in Lincoln's home state.

They would pack the convention halls with full-throated loyalists to overwhelm Seward's men and made sure the Seward delegation was scattered to make conferring more difficult. They printed counterfeit admission tickets in order to supplant Seward die-hards with Lincoln men. And Lincoln's campaign leader David Davis cheerfully ignored the candidates admonition that 'no contracts will bind me'. Davis would dangle before the leader of Pennsylvania's delegation a cabinet post for Simon Cameron if it would go to Lincoln on the second ballot. (They would follow through and Cameron would be named Lincoln's first Secretary of War. However, he would quickly prove so incompetent that he would be forced out less than a year into the administration.)

On May 17th the second night of the convention Lincoln's team spent the entire night entreating and cajoling every single delegation they could. Indiana agreed to come aboard with 26 votes. They set to work on Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and Virginia to demonstrate support from New England on the second ballot. The game was to procure at least 100 first ballot votes with support building in the subsequent tallies. And he urged Lincoln partisans in the convention hall to out scream and outshout Seward's men.

On the first ballot, Seward had 173 1/2 of the necessary 233 for the nomination. (The Republicans needed a simple majority of the delegates to achieve the nomination.) But Lincoln scored 102 votes.

On the second ballot Lincoln gained 79 votes while Seward only managed another 11. Critical were 48 from Pennsylvania. On the third ballot Lincoln moved into the lead with 231 1/2 ballots.

Then David Carter of Ohio rose. His state had gone in behind Salmon Chase but in the second ballot fourteen members of the delegation had gone to Lincoln. Now he transferred three of the remaining votes to Lincoln, earning him the nomination. The vice presidential slot went to Hannibal Hamlin of Maine.

While all of this was unfolding a collection of old line politicians, dismayed by the acidic effect of the strife over slavery gathered at Baltimore to establish a new party. They called themselves the Constitutional Union Party and its members included Southern whigs still clinging to the Union, lingering Know-Nothings from the south and even some slavery issue moderates from a cross the country. They nominated for President John Bell of Tennessee; a Whig whose lack of color belied his resume. Bell had represented Tennessee in the House for seven terms, briefly serving as Speaker. He had been William Henry Harrison's secretary of War and had left after Tyler assumed power. After that he had served two terms in the Senate. His Vice President was Edward Everett of Massachusetts, one the representative of the Cotton Whigs and now completely out of favor in his state. The platform was less 100 words and didn't mention slavery at all.

Looking back it seems strange that of the four candidates for President in 1860 the overwhelming favorite was at the time the most obscure. Lincoln wasn't even on in the ballot in the south and the campaign would quickly divide among section lines. Lincoln vs. Douglas in the North, Breckinridge vs. Bell in the South. Given that Lincoln had an overwhelming position of strength in the North, the only thing that might possibly give any of the three candidates a chance to win was if no candidate could get a majority of the electoral vote. In that case, as in 1824, the election would go to the House of Representatives where the top three vote getters in the electoral college would vie for the prize and each states delegation would get one vote.

The only realistic possibility for that to happen was if the opposition parties could fuse together and pull the anti-Lincoln votes under one banner. Several men who favored Breckinridge in New York met with representatives from Douglas and Everett to do so. A meeting was called on September 9th with particular emphasis on pooling financial resources. However on the 15th it collapsed under the wait of partisan animosity, particularly when the Breckinridge men refused to accept Douglas's faction insisting that any fusion ticket run on popular sovereignty.

The South knew that Lincoln was likely to be the next President and they refused to accept his moderate remarks on the issue of slavery being inseparable from those of the very abolitionists who considered him insufficiently radical on the issue. He went out of his way to make it clear that the Constitution sanctioned slavery, fugitive slave laws were a constitutional mandate and that he didn't place blacks on an equal social footing as whites. None of this mattered. Lincoln thought that slavery was a moral wrong and in their minds that made him no different from Garrison on the subject.

Stephen Douglas knew his path to the Presidency was nearly impossible and in what was unprecedented at that time, he took the stump and traveled the South in particular trying to convince them of fealty to the Union where secessionism seemed inevitable. In a speech in Virginia he made it clear where he stood:

"If Abraham Lincoln be elected President of the United States will the Southern States be justified in seceding from the Union? To this I emphatically answer no. The election of a man to the Presidency by the American people, in conformity with the Constitution of the United States would not justify any attempt at dissolving this glorious confederacy.

If the Southern states secede from the Union upon the inauguration of Abraham Lincoln, before he commits an overt act against their constitutional rights, will you advocate or vindicate resistance by force to their secession. I answer empathically that it is the duty of the President of the United States and all others in authority under him, to enforce the laws of the United States as passed by Congress and the courts expound him….And I, as in duty bound by my oath of fidelity to the Constitution, would do all in my power to aid the government of the United States in maintaining the supremacy of the laws against all resistance to them, come from what quarter they may."

It was a fervent speech for the Union. But it did nothing to improve his prospects.

After the returns were counted, Lincoln had been elected President with what remains today the smallest percentage of the popular vote in history, not even forty percent of the vote. Douglas had carried 29.5 percent, Breckinridge 18 percent and Bell 12.6 percent. But electorally the math was different. Lincoln carried Pennsylvania, Illinois and Indiana, three states Fremont had not carried in 1856. Combined with 4 of New Jersey's 7 electoral votes (Douglas carried the rest) they were enough to give him a majority in the electoral college for what would be a total of 180 electoral votes. Douglas would only carry Missouri along with New Jersey's three. Bell carried Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia for 39 while Breckinridge carried the remaining 72 of the South.

Beyond that, it was hard to read the tea leaves in Congress. The Republicans maintained control of the House even though they would lose 8 seats and the Democrats lost six seats but still were tied with the Republicans for control of the Senate. (Only after the South seceded and the majority of the Southern Senators left with their states did the Republicans gain control of the Senate.)

What was clear from the results is that overwhelming the voting people believed in unity. Combined Lincoln, Douglas and Bell accounted for more than 80 percent of the popular vote and Bell had outperformed Breckinridge in many parts of the South. Regardless of the opinions of the scourge of slavery all three of these people believed in the preservation of the Union something Breckinridge and his followers were not inclined to endorse any more.

But to the South all that mattered was Lincoln's victory. On November 7th 1860, with news of the triumph of Lincoln’s victory just a few hours old, South Carolina District Judge Andrew McGrath closed the latest term with a starling announcement: because secession was inevitable, he was resigning his judgeship.

While South Carolina had been at the forefront of the secessionist movement few had thought that McGrath, who had always been on the side of the cooperationist part of the divide in his home state, would be the one to lead the secessionist movement. Yet he was the first member of the first state to secede from the Union.

Three days later the South Carolina state senate approved legislation and called for a convention of delegates to consider secession. Two days after that both South Carolina senators James Chestnut and James Hammond resigned their seats. Barnwell Rhett's dream of secession was about to become a reality.

In my conclusion to this series I will end this series where I began: with how Garrison and Rhett's fates after secession became a reality and how their world view colors both of the extreme parts of political debate to this day.

 

The West Wing Retrospective: Why Rob Lowe Left The Show and How

 

When I first saw The West Wing I was still having issues with actors leaving TV shows.

To be clear I didn't necessarily mean being killed off, which even by the later 1990s was starting to become a recurring theme in TV. I'd actually gotten used to it not so much from watching Oz and The Sopranos but the works of David E. Kelley who until HBO came along had the reputation of being the Grim Reaper of TV, shockingly killing off regulars even on supposed comedies such as Ally McBeal. What troubled me more was when an actor chose simply to depart a series to seek greener pastures in film (then the usual way things worked) or just because they were tired of working on the show. At the turn of the century, the biggest loss I had endured was Andre Braugher leaving Homicide in 1998, though at least in that case I'd been given a full season to prepare.

Anyone who watched The West Wing knows that Sorkin didn't have the greatest track record. Famously he wrote out the first season character Madeline Hampton without any explanation or indeed the characters commenting on it at any point. He wasn't much better with recurring characters who had the habit of coming and going as they pleased. The most famous example in the early seasons was White House reporter Danny Concannon (Timothy Busfield) who was set up as a love interest for CJ in Season 1, made a few appearances in Season 2 and then vanished without a trace until he suddenly reappeared at Christmas in Season 4.

Still when Rob Lowe announced in interviews after Season 3 ended that he was thinking of leaving the show and would in fact depart for good halfway through Season 4, I took it very personally not just because I had loved Lowe's work on the series but because it seemed slightly ungrateful. Lowe, it's worthy remembering, had been a teen sensation in the 1980s but his career had become essentially fodder for public humiliation when he was seen in a sex tape in the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention. He'd spent most of the 1990s with a far smaller profile in movies and when he was cast in The West Wing it was at the time a consideration of 'how the mighty had fallen'. Instead when the show became a critical and audience hit it completely redeemed his career. The fact that he was now choosing to leave the show after four seasons seemed to be the definition of ingratitude.

Of course, it ended up working out like gangbusters for Lowe. He starred in a few intriguing dramas that were quickly cancelled before exploding on to the scene yet again when he and Adam Scott joined the cast of what was then a middling comedy series called Parks & Recreation and almost immediately turned it into one of the greatest shows of the 2010s. Lowe's work as Chris, the most enthusiastic man you will ever meet, was one of the most constantly hysterical performances and demonstrated his gift for comic timing in a way not even The West Wing had. Since departing the show in the penultimate season (along with Rashida Jones) he has worked constantly in some of the most successful TV projects on network TV, most notably the Lone Star spinoff of the 9-1-1 franchise. His post West Wing career has been just as good as any of his co-stars who stayed with the show the entire run.

And with the benefit of hindsight I now completely understand why Lowe would later say he was constantly frustrated working on The West Wing. Lowe was the biggest name on the series, other than Martin Sheen, so I have little doubt he expected the meatiest role. And very quickly it became clear that Sam Seaborn wasn't even close to it.

Sam's title, as he famously told us in the Pilot, was the Deputy Communications Director at the White House. The problem was that was never as important a job as the rest of the staff. You understood Josh's job and his relationship with Leo and the series would later explain that Josh and Sam had been friends and that Sam had left his job to work for the campaign. The problem was the show never explained in any detail how Sam ended up working for Toby in the aftermath of the campaign and more importantly, it was never clear where he fit in the pecking order.

There was a fair amount of humor to see Sam and Toby bickering about the words in a speech, but you were never clear that Toby's was Sam's superior the same way that Leo was clearly Josh's. The clearest relationship he had on the show was with CJ and that made sense: Sam was a communications director and CJ was the press secretary. But that never seemed a relationship of equals either: CJ had a habit of lecturing Sam and he rarely did the same to her.

And if it was unclear where Sam fit in the pecking order in the administration, it could be harder to pin down his exact role and the jobs he was chosen to do. We learned early on Sam was a lawyer, and he would be used to determine legal liabilities of members of the staff throughout the first and second seasons in particular. Which begs the question: why hadn't he been hired as part of the White House counsel's office instead of deputy communications director?

Indeed throughout the first season the times where Sam ends up having his greatest moments is when an investigation into the White House is meant to bring up that Leo McGarey was a recovering alcoholic and drug addict. At one point Josh is called in for an interview and Sam is there to keep him calm. But as the questions get more aggressive he ends the interview and says one of the great lines Lowe ever delivered: "You're a hack in a cheap suit. And if you come after Leo, I'm going to bust you like a pinata." In this scene and other you see Sam working as the attack dog for the administration. The problem was that even by this point in the series this role had already been occupied by Josh and honestly, that would always lead to better stories. Also by the time the first season was over Toby was clearly far better at the speechwriting part and the debate between idealism and pragmatism.

And so with no clear role on the show and no clear position in the administration Sam spent most of his tenure on the series playing second fiddle to everyone else. That didn't mean Lowe wasn't superb when he was given a chance to shine: as I indicated in my piece on Donna, his work in Somebody's Going Into Emergency, Somebody's Going to Jail'  made the episode one of the highpoints of Season 2 and there were quite a few other brilliant episodes where Lowe got a chance to show his fire. But compared to the rest of the cast, they were notably fewer. It's possible the reason Lowe only received a single Emmy nomination during his four years on the show was that he insisted on submitting his name for Best Actor instead of Supporting Actor. But looking back, it's hard to find the same number of episodes that gave Lowe the chance the shine the same way that Bradley Whitford or Richard Schiff got over this same period.

In hindsight the clearest sign of this discrepancy may have come during the stretch in Season 2 when the staff became aware of Bartlet's diagnosis. Sam didn't learn about it until the penultimate episode of the season after which every other series regular had been aware for a while. There was a plot point given for this that was discussed by Toby and Josh but the implication might just as well be that he was the least important when it came to figuring out what to do next.

So one can see why after three seasons Lowe figured it was time to move on. And I have to say I was never entirely thrilled with how they wrote him out of the series. With that being said there are clearly elements of the arc that they chose that are, if anything, more relevant to today's political arena then they were twenty years ago.

As I said at my introduction to this series Jed Bartlett was elected in 1998 with both houses of Congress being Republican. That was a parallel to what was going on in American politics: Bill Clinton had won reelection in 1996 but both houses of Congress were still very much Republican. During the 2000 midterms both Houses of Congress remained exactly the same, which was not that different from how the actual 2000 Congressional election would actually turn out. ("Tell me democracy doesn't have a sense of humor," Josh said at the end after that episode .)

It's worth noting that even the most devoted fans of The West Wing admit that Seasons 3 and 4 were not at the same level of the first two seasons. Part of it was no doubt because of 9/11 but I honestly feel that even had history not intervened the series would still have been struggling all the same because of how television worked.

There was never any real drama about whether Bartlet was going to lose reelection. The West Wing was both a rating and critical hit and that meant NBC was going to keep it on the air as long as possible. And because the show was, like most others, airing in real time that meant it was essentially going to have the spend Season 3 and part of Season 4 trying to milk drama out of a situation that all but the most naïve viewers had to know was inevitable. I was only 22 in the fall of 2001 and even I knew that no matter how doubtful the characters would be in private Bartlet was going to win.

Consequently whatever suspense was supposed to come into the investigations into Bartlet hiding his diagnosis from the world was purely for dramatic effect: Bartlet was not going to be impeached or forced to resign and none of the characters we knew and loved were going to lose their jobs because of this. They might agonize in private in ways that would get them nominated for and win Emmys (I wasn't that cynical about that part of it then) but they were regulars on network TV series that was still a huge hit. This might happen on cable shows; it wasn't going to happen here.

Honestly it's a credit to Sorkin and his entire cast that they managed to dangle for so long what the industry refers to as 'schmuck's bait' (something that has the potential to completely tear apart the foundation of the series if its true but is usually resolved in an episode to be false)  and have it work as well as it did. I might have been irritated by some of the storylines (the legal maneuvering; the debate over the Congressional hearings) but because all the actors committed to it, I rarely had the problems with it I should have. All of the actors were at the top of their game that season and there were quite a few episodes that very much demonstrate the best Sorkin had to offer. (I'll refer to some of them in later articles in the series.) But looking back it really seems that the biggest missed opportunity for the show was to deal with an issue that should have been paramount when the President is running for reelection but Sorkin almost never touched on until it was over: getting more Democrats into Congress.

If anything this should have been front and center considering all of the struggles the show had demonstrated over the years they'd had with Republicans in Congress. Considering how difficult it must have been to get so much of the agenda passed (and that's including what we never saw on the show) the priority should have been to get Democrats elected up and down the ballot. When you add in the fact that the climax of the investigation was that Bartlet had to accept a congressional censure in large part because the Republicans were planning to crucify his chief of staff on live television, you'd think it would at least have been a concern. And considering that they were going to have to worry about what to accomplish in their second term, that would have been a priority as well.

Instead during the entire third season all of the talk about was about Bartlet's running for reelection and how everything would affect him. That's not necessarily a flaw: considering that the show was set in the White House, it should have been the staff's priority. But it's only in the fourth season when the show that Sorkin dealt with it at all – and perhaps only because he was planning to write Lowe's character out.

In the early stages of Season 4 Sam is looking through the records of Democrats running for Congress that the DNC has recruited and is appalled by the selection. Most notably he's concerned about their candidate for the California 47th  Horton Wilder, who's just had his fourth heart attack. ("We nominated a man who had three heart attacks?" he says when he hears that.) It's worth noting this district is Orange County which has been famously Republican since the era of Goldwater.

During the episode Debate Prep he vents his frustration more than a few times about the inadequate candidates the DCCC is choosing and finally gets to the point: "Do we want to be taken seriously when we say we want to take back the House or not?" Joey Lucas (Marlee Matlin) acknowledges problem but follows it up with: "How are we supposed to compete in a district that last went Democrat before Abraham Lincoln was elected President?"

This episode, I should add, was written well in advance of the way partisan gerrymandering would lead to districts being labeled permanently red or blue. But few would argue about the relevance of the question today. Yes, there's an argument about throwing good money after bad in a hopeless cause, but if you're not going to even make the effort how can anyone take a national party seriously when they want to speak to all Americans?

During this episode Horton Wilde dies in the aftermath of his heart attack and Sam goes to the California 47th to tell the campaign manager Will Bailey (Joshua Malina) that the DNC is pulling its funding and he has to close up shop. He finds a very determined Bailey not willing to do so and is in fact holding press conferences adding to do so, in which he tears apart the Republican incumbent Chuck Webb. Famously he finishes: "There are worse things than not being alive."

Sam comes back to talk to him after the debate telling him again what to do. For the first time Will gets angry about it: "There are ideas in this campaign. Important ones. And  they're only going to get talked about in a blowout and you know it. And you know there's no glory in it!" Then he makes it personal, reminding him that everyone though John Hoynes was going to win the White House and Sam and his friends were idiots for going to New Hampshire with Bartlet. Sam decides to leave it be and says that if Wilde wins, he'll stand for reelection in 90 days against Webb. He makes the promise to the widow and Will Bailey but he thinks there's no chance it'll happen.

It's worth noting the only suspense in the election is whether Chuck Webb will lose his seat. This is frankly Malina's finest hour on the show as he works with energy, enthusiasm and famously stands outside waiting to see if the clouds will break, therefore driving down turnout. "Now!" he shouts and the clouds burst. Even he's astonished it happened.

Sam spends the entire day in increasing turmoil and is not happy when it happens because the world knows about his promise. But it's worth noting Amy Gardener shows up saying that Sam should keep his promise she says: "When the sun comes up tomorrow, everyone's going to be talking about how the President had no coattails." It is clear that while Bartlet won by an eleven point landslide, the House (and possibly the Senate) are still Republican. An angry minority of House Democrats will be pissed how the President didn't help them regain the majority.

Josh fires back: "The President's coattails were big enough for a dead man to be reelected." Not only does this deny the reality of the situation, it ignores the fact that the DNC wanted Bailey to fold his tent and Wilde managed to win despite that. Bartlet is not only a lame duck, he has a Congress who will be no friendlier to him then they were in his first term, a situation that will become clear in just a few episodes. Tellingly for the rest of the Sorkin era no one at Bartlet's administration comments that this was a failure on their part.

Sam does agree to run for the seat and there's a large debate as to if he loses that he will be promoted to another position. When he does lose in a two-part finale, it's done as a complete anticlimax with not even showing election day and there's no explanation given as to why Sam never came back.

The show also will blunder when making Joshua Malina's character a regular. It's clearly been set up this way with Sam getting Will to help write the inaugural address as a matchmaker. The last words he says about him to Toby is: "He's one of us." But once he's part of the cast, the show does a terrible job with him from beginning to end. There's a period of hazing which is out of context with what we've seen them do to other semi-regulars, they eventually give him Sam's position and after that, they won't even give Will the same kind of authority Sam once had. He basically spends much of the final part of Season 4 camped out writing speeches, not making much policy or headway and has no presence in the season finale. When the show comes back (without Sorkin) the first thing the writers do is have Bailey move to working for the new Vice President and he spends much of the rest of the series being a stand-in for all the frustrations they have with the new VP and for the rest of the show, the position Sam held apparently isn't held by…anyone.

It's almost like a final insult to everything Lowe did in his tenure: we're now acknowledged the part he played was meaningless and had no function. The show made many more obvious blunders under John Wells' tenure but retrospectively, this one seems the most cruel.

But for all that I can't bring myself to despise Lowe's final real moments on The West Wing when he makes the decision that, despite the fact he will almost certainly lose and end any chance he has to run for office someday and win, he feels sometimes you have to do it. It’s made clear when Leo talks about it that night when he's told that Sam will in fact get creamed. He ends the episode by saying: "The process matters more than the outcome."

That's actually the lesson that I really wish that people of all political persuasions, Democratic or Republican, ultra conservative or loony progressive, really should take from the electoral process. As Will famously says to Sam when why he is running the campaign: "Horton Wilde may be dead, but what he believed in isn't. That metaphor is reason enough to carry on." Considering that for so many people these days the loss of any election of any candidate – particularly progressive Democrats – is  yet another reason either for surrender or to say the system is irrevocably broken, this is something that needs to be celebrated and believed in. In the winner take all system so many think democracy has to be – which was very much active during the period Sorkin was writing The West Wing  and that he made very clear should disgust all Americans – we have to believe that the fight is important and then defeat doesn't permanently define you.

Yes both Will and Sam eventually lost their battle and Chuck Webb won reelection. But both of them knew it was inevitable and they kept fighting anyway. As Leo says: "The process matters more than the outcome. Here endeth the lesson."