Tuesday, August 26, 2025

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actor in A Drama

 

In the first decade of this century three actors – James Gandolfini, James Spader and Bryan Cranston – won eight of the ten Best Actor Emmys of the decade. Few things can argue about how much the Emmys has changed since then when you consider ever since 2011 not only has no one won back-to-back Emmys but fourteen different actors have all won in this category.

The former trend will continue regardless of who wins this years and there's an excellent chance that the latter will too. What hasn't changed is the immense caliber of the talent in this category. Even with only five nominees present this year this arguably the greatest display of collective talent in any acting category. The five nominees are among the greatest actors working in television today and all of them have worked for decades as the greatest actors in the medium, save for one who's just one of the greatest actors of all time period. All of them are more than deserving winners and I would be absolutely fine with any of them winning. With that said, there is a clear frontrunner and I suspect he will prevail. With that in mind let's look at the talent on display.

 

Sterling K. Brown, Paradise. For Playing: Xavier Collins, a former Secret Service agent trying to figure out who killed the former President of the United States after the end of the world. Pro: In less than ten years Brown has managed to tie the record set by Andre Braugher for most Emmy nominations by an African-American actor. He's been one of the most versatile actors in TV to this point, though there has been a common thread in all of his roles: from Christopher Darden to Randall Pierson to the band manager in Marvelous Mrs. Maisel he has the knack for playing character with an intense sense of justice and morality that is almost unheard of in the era of Peak TV. And in Xavier Collins, all of the force of those strengths are shown on full display: the family man, the loyal friend, the man with an intense sight of right and wrong, the one who is willing to tear down the world even after the world has ended to let the truth see light. There is never a moment when Brown is not believable no matter how bizarre things get and he is as much a beacon as anything. His victory at the African-American TV awards shows how solid his work will always be and he will prevail in this category. Con: Brown is the only previous winner in this category with two Emmys already to his credit. While he could (sort of) break the streak I talked about above, I really doubt that's going to happen at least this year.

Gary Oldman, Slow Horses. For Playing: Jackson Lamb, confronting a threat to London that has its origin in his past. Pro: The only repeat nominee from last year, Oldman continues to have the most fun of all the nominees in this category as we see Jackson Lamb deal with his past in all the worst ways when he must confront the man he believes destroyed his moral compass knows the truth about what's going on in London and his grandson and is hiding behind his dementia. Besides that Oldman cheerfully relishes playing a man who is slovenly, proudly drinks and smokes too much, doesn't care about breaking wind or breaking rules, and seems exasperated every time he has to save his agents or the country. Every minute Oldman is on screen is an utter delight and he deserves to win someday. Con: It's just not going to be today. There's honestly just too much raw talent on display for Oldman's work to be acknowledged. But hey, Slow Horses has been renewed for another three seasons. He'll get more chances.

Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us. For Playing: Joel Miller, who finds out that some things are just wrong, even after civilization collapses to zombies. Pro: Of all the actors in this category Pascal has no chance of returning for this show, considering that his character died in what was the most shocking death considering that it was canon. His role is also by far the most limited of his nominees: as Pascal only appeared in three of Season 2's seven episodes. But it's not like he didn't give many opportunities for them to honor him. That long moment when he's asked by Catherine O'Hara what happened between him and Ellie where the camera holds on his face and he says: "I saved her" was one standout. The way that he seemed almost willing to meet his end at the hands of the Wolves was just as profound. And in the penultimate episode where we saw the saga of Joel and Ellie unfold through various birthdays, saw their relationship fracture and in the final minutes, saw him confess that he had sacrificed the world to save Ellie -ending with the line that showed the sins passed through generations – is by far some of the greatest acting I've seen all year. Con: Aside from the backlash about Season 2, Pascal has a bigger problem. Historically the Emmys don't give lead awards to roles this small. If he'd allowed himself to be nominated as Supporting Actor it might have worked (this did work for Elizabeth Debicki last year) but as we saw with Succession the voters chose Kieran Culkin over Brian Cox time after time. I don't think Pascal can overcome it.

Adam Scott, Severance. For Playing: Mark Scout, trying to figure out the reality of what's happening at Lumen with his work and home life divided. Pro: Adam Scott has been one of the most underrecognized actors in TV for over fifteen years, starring in such great shows as Party Down, Parks & Rec and Big Little Lies and never getting so much as a nomination from the Emmys. Now he's two for two this year (thanks Sal Saperstein!) and has been the early frontrunner for his now iconic dual role as Mark, who is trying to figure out not just all the horrors that are going on at Lumen but the role it played in the death of his wife – who the audience now knows never died at all. Mark went on the ride of a lifetime and at the end of Season 2 was confronted with choosing between his past and his present – and made a pick no one could have seen coming. Throw in the fact that, like every actor in this incredible show, he's basically playing two characters, and it's impossible not to see why he was the overwhelming favorite before the nominations came out. Things have changed for Scott; he hasn't won a single acting award, even at the Astras when this show managed to win Best Drama. His momentum may be snatched from him.

Noah Wyle, The Pitt. EXPERTS PICK, MY PICK For Playing: Dr. 'Robby' Rabinovich, the head of a Pittsburgh ER where the traumas keep piling on  the anniversary of his mentors death. Pro: Ever since he astounded us as Dr. Carter on ER thirty years ago, Wyle has been a constant on television looking boyish even twenty years later on so many TNT action series. Now, thirty years since he got his first Emmy nomination, Wyle is back in an overcrowded, underfunded emergency room where traumas never stop coming. But this is not Carter thirty years later. We see a man who is trying to fight against an onslaught of trauma, the horrible bureaucracy, so many staff and personal problems, all while not dealing with the fact that his mentor died in this hospital five years ago. We're not shocked when Robby breaks down halfway through a mass casualty, we're only amazed it hasn't happened before. Wyle has been winning nearly every award since June, from the Astras to the Dorians to the TCA award. It's looking like only another shocker could stop him from winning this year. Con: Wyle himself knows better than to get overconfident. He's been the favorite in Supporting Acting categories in his five nominations and always lost to veteran actors. It could just as easily happen here.

MY PREDICTION: There are no bad choices in this category but I think Wyle's finally going to get the Emmy he deserved for more than thirty years.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama. This is probably the least suspenseful award in drama this year, no question.

 

 

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